How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 2)
Discussion
Mrr T said:
Let’s look at this in detail.
CDS will be a good system but it’s designed to deal with freight that arrives in port in a container (it also deals with air freight) and is unloaded into a bonded area. The CDS system speeds the movement out of bonded area to the customer.
This is very different to goods arriving in the UK on lorries, often with mixed loads, directly into the UK. The poster suggests in another post HMRC will set up bonded areas near the channel crossings. This might work for the tunnel, although I have not seen anything being built. It does not work in Diver where the foot print of the port is tiny. Someone suggested some while ago the Dover bonded area would be inland. They never explained how you would keep the lorries segregated, since Dover only has 2 major routes in and out. The facts are we are not ready for a customs border even at the channel crossings.
The second link it to a proof of concept of a fully integrated system. So this is a proof of concept, it’s not even been put out to tender, no code has been cut, no infrastructure built. So when will it be delivered? Even if it was signed off today we would be talking at least 2025 for go live and this is a government project so let’s say 2030.
None of these solve the Irish border question.
Also for this to work the poster should remember goods travel both ways no it’s not just the UK which needs to be ready.
Link the two together. The bonded area will be the whole UK. No border posts at the ports, in effect.CDS will be a good system but it’s designed to deal with freight that arrives in port in a container (it also deals with air freight) and is unloaded into a bonded area. The CDS system speeds the movement out of bonded area to the customer.
This is very different to goods arriving in the UK on lorries, often with mixed loads, directly into the UK. The poster suggests in another post HMRC will set up bonded areas near the channel crossings. This might work for the tunnel, although I have not seen anything being built. It does not work in Diver where the foot print of the port is tiny. Someone suggested some while ago the Dover bonded area would be inland. They never explained how you would keep the lorries segregated, since Dover only has 2 major routes in and out. The facts are we are not ready for a customs border even at the channel crossings.
The second link it to a proof of concept of a fully integrated system. So this is a proof of concept, it’s not even been put out to tender, no code has been cut, no infrastructure built. So when will it be delivered? Even if it was signed off today we would be talking at least 2025 for go live and this is a government project so let’s say 2030.
None of these solve the Irish border question.
Also for this to work the poster should remember goods travel both ways no it’s not just the UK which needs to be ready.
As for what happens in the EU, that's the EU's responsibility. As I've said the UK will be able to have open roads for arriving vehicles, but if the EU wants to have sentry posts then that's for them to decide.
Sway said:
True. Amusingly, the one that is in a CU has long queues at the border, and the one that isn't has virtually none...
Too bloody right. Turkey is the bane of my life for paperwork and whoever in Ankara decides how their non-tariff barriers should work is a Machiavellian genius, and no mistake.I do veterinary certificates for some products I export. Most countries will allow this document to be dated any time after the goods have been sealed into a truck or container. Not Turkey. To get the vet certificate for them the certificate has to be dated after the date it has been sealed into the truck, but before the date of departure from the UK. We also have to name the ship it will be on in the certificate. The certificate takes roughly 15 days to be produced.
That's a fun one to administer. In essence we have to book the container onto a ship three weeks in advance and store it at the dock for that period while the relevant government office churns out a document.
After the third time of this being a complete disaster the sales manager asked "How are we supposed to do this?" and I said "Knowing Turkey, we probably aren't."
That's a Customs Union.
Mrr T said:
2. its main shortcoming is that a significant amount of livestock crosses the border, but it makes no mention of BIP.
No need for a BIP. All you need to say is "We accept EU livestock, end of" and you don't need one - same as we do now. The only reason you'd want a BIP is if you decided that livestock in Ireland or the rest of the EU didn't meet UK standards.Mrr T said:
4. it’s not clear if the proposed smart border meets the UK and UK government pledge to no border.
Article 49 of the phase 1 agreement said "The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border.", which I guess is the pledge you refer to. There's always going to be a border - there's one there now, it's just quite hard to see.Mrr T said:
5. Even if a smart border is acceptable no one has started building it.
As I've mentioned, they have. The nuts and bolts of it really aren't that complicated - ANPR cameras at the major crossings, weight limits on the smaller roads, and a box on the EAD for the registration number of the truck. Truck comes across, system checks database. Truck has a declaration for the journey? Mark it as having crossed the border and bill the appropriate deferment account. If you get away from the mindset that the lion's share of customs work has to be done at the border then it's quite simple. No declaration on file? Pass the details on to the enforcement division. It's likely all undeclared HGVs would get pulled, and any vans with odd movements would too. Bung in a generous turnover threshold for business before customs is enforced (maybe £100,000) on the basis that the trade would be roughly symmetrical, and you're most of the way there.
Sway said:
Non tariff barriers are a thing, but not anywhere near the extent often suggested. They're reducing all the time.
Especially when countries like France applied them on certain goods even when in the club, to no censure...
Sounds like they are a problem in Turkey.... as they might well be in the EU once we diverge our regulations.Especially when countries like France applied them on certain goods even when in the club, to no censure...
I don't get the obsession with "our own free trade deals" as if that's the only thing that matters. Some EU countries do quite well as exporters either within EU FTA's or without them. Why can't we?
edh said:
Sway said:
Non tariff barriers are a thing, but not anywhere near the extent often suggested. They're reducing all the time.
Especially when countries like France applied them on certain goods even when in the club, to no censure...
Sounds like they are a problem in Turkey.... as they might well be in the EU once we diverge our regulations.Especially when countries like France applied them on certain goods even when in the club, to no censure...
I don't get the obsession with "our own free trade deals" as if that's the only thing that matters. Some EU countries do quite well as exporters either within EU FTA's or without them. Why can't we?
Note, I'm not obsessed by 'our own free trade deals' - I'm far more concerned about the ability to set our own inward tariff rates. Far more important for our economy, population, and businesses.
We do very well as a trading nation - only beaten by our capabilities as a consuming nation. It's hardly like we rank poorly for export trade.
Note, our largest export market is the US. No FTA, no Customs Union.
Then it's Germany, Switzerland, China, France and the Netherlands (and I'm pretty confident the French and Dutch exports are effected by the 'Rotterdam Effect' where we export to a port that then consolidates shipping to an onward destination).
Sway said:
Note, I'm not obsessed by 'our own free trade deals' - I'm far more concerned about the ability to set our own inward tariff rates. Far more important for our economy, population, and businesses.
Why? Tariffs only penalise the country that puts them on. The country selling the goods does not pay a tariff, it's the people of the country buying the goods that pay the tariff. The EU can afford to play tit-for-tat tariffs far longer than the UK can.
Sway said:
We do very well as a trading nation - only beaten by our capabilities as a consuming nation. It's hardly like we rank poorly for export trade.
Note, our largest export market is the US. No FTA, no Customs Union.
Exports in billions.Note, our largest export market is the US. No FTA, no Customs Union.
Total trade £547,
EU = £235.8
US = £99.6
If we lose 10% of EU exports (£23.8b) are we going to pick up 21% in exports to the US?
Also you're wrong about no trade agreement, we have the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) from being part of the EU, US-EU trade tarrifs are on average under 2% excepting certain large industries like cars which are 30%.
You're gambling that the US would be willing to give an independent UK the same deal but the fact is, US FTA's are stupidly one sided. Only the economic power of the EU prevented the TTIP from being the same. The UK would likely receive the same deal as Australia, heavy tariffs on industry and financial services going to the US and having US laws foisted on the UK (and you thought the EU was bad). The worst thing (Australian Prime Minister, Johh) Howard ever did was sign that agreement with the US. Australian exports to the US sank whilst imports increased creating a larger trade deficit.
Ironically, the best thing Trump ever did (for Australia) was dump the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) that would have seen more US laws and lopsided trade agreements foisted on Australia.
So if you're counting on the US to cover a trade deficit from the EU, I've got some bad news for you.
Atomic12C said:
So is Corbyn's new position on where he wants Labour to stand on Brexit basically for the UK and the EU to agree on a customs union which the EU have said time again that to be in a customs union you basically have to be in the EU? (ie. not leave)
Or is his idea of a customs union a 'special case', which again is something that the EU have said will not happen, due to "have your cake and eat it" excuse?
And here in lies my problem with Brexit. The EU has repeatedly said you cant stay in the customs union or the single market, but our politicians are continuing to make plans pretending otherwise. They're wasting time living in a fantasy world and I'm talking about both parties here.Or is his idea of a customs union a 'special case', which again is something that the EU have said will not happen, due to "have your cake and eat it" excuse?
As the negotiations so far have demonstrated, what the EU says, goes. Davis and his team spent months trying to "negotiate" the divorce bill only to have May cave in just to get negotiations to progress.
Instead of planning for a UK outside the EU, they're continuing to fantasise about some kind of in-and-out deal that will never happen. However we all know why they aren't planning for that, because a UK economy outside the EU will be shambles.
captain_cynic said:
Also you're wrong about no trade agreement, we have the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) from being part of the EU, US-EU trade tarrifs are on average under 2% excepting certain large industries like cars which are 30%.
Here's some Wiki for you on TTIP:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_Trade_...
Just read the first paragraph if you can't be bothered reading the whole thing.
captain_cynic said:
Sway said:
Note, I'm not obsessed by 'our own free trade deals' - I'm far more concerned about the ability to set our own inward tariff rates. Far more important for our economy, population, and businesses.
Why? Tariffs only penalise the country that puts them on. The country selling the goods does not pay a tariff, it's the people of the country buying the goods that pay the tariff. The EU can afford to play tit-for-tat tariffs far longer than the UK can.
Who on earth suggested playing 'tit for tat'? As you say, the only people that suffer from inward tariffs are the consumers and businesses of the country that levies them - hence why I want them reduced as far as possible (and we'd be able to reduce them by 80% across the board without changing the income to the Treasury).
Sway said:
We do very well as a trading nation - only beaten by our capabilities as a consuming nation. It's hardly like we rank poorly for export trade.
Note, our largest export market is the US. No FTA, no Customs Union.
Exports in billions.Note, our largest export market is the US. No FTA, no Customs Union.
Total trade £547,
EU = £235.8
US = £99.6
If we lose 10% of EU exports (£23.8b) are we going to pick up 21% in exports to the US?
Also you're wrong about no trade agreement, we have the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) from being part of the EU, US-EU trade tarrifs are on average under 2% excepting certain large industries like cars which are 30%.
You're gambling that the US would be willing to give an independent UK the same deal but the fact is, US FTA's are stupidly one sided. Only the economic power of the EU prevented the TTIP from being the same. The UK would likely receive the same deal as Australia, heavy tariffs on industry and financial services going to the US and having US laws foisted on the UK (and you thought the EU was bad). The worst thing (Australian Prime Minister, Johh) Howard ever did was sign that agreement with the US. Australian exports to the US sank whilst imports increased creating a larger trade deficit.
Ironically, the best thing Trump ever did (for Australia) was dump the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) that would have seen more US laws and lopsided trade agreements foisted on Australia.
So if you're counting on the US to cover a trade deficit from the EU, I've got some bad news for you.
The EU isn't a market. It's a group of countries. Germany is a market, the US is a market - and it's bigger. Indeed, three of the top five export markets are outside the EU.
Now, please try and posit a reason why EU exports would drop 10%. Especially in light of the fact that trade in goods with nations we don't have current FTAs with has grown much faster then trade with nations we do have FTAs with.
Lastly, TTIP doesn't exist. Demonstrated by your very statement about the tariffs levied on imports from the US.
You're not very good at this - please, read some more, then try again.
edh said:
captain_cynic said:
And here in lies my problem with Brexit. The EU has repeatedly said you cant stay in the customs union or the single market,....
They haven'tSo effectively, they are saying 'stay' rather than 'leave' if you want a CU or SM.
As per Norway and a couple of others - you can be in the Single Market (with the requirements of that) and be outside the customs union.
This allows a nation to set it's own external tariff rates and sign it's own FTAs.
In fact, if Corbyn really wanted to achieve what he stated he does, this is what he should have proposed. However, even he isn't stupid enough to think that the conditions applied to SM membership would be palatable to his electorate - and more importantly, they'd prevent him doing many of the things he wants to if he gained power.
Membership of the Customs Union really is the worst of all worlds. Especially if it's a new negotiation with partial application, which would be very likely.
This allows a nation to set it's own external tariff rates and sign it's own FTAs.
In fact, if Corbyn really wanted to achieve what he stated he does, this is what he should have proposed. However, even he isn't stupid enough to think that the conditions applied to SM membership would be palatable to his electorate - and more importantly, they'd prevent him doing many of the things he wants to if he gained power.
Membership of the Customs Union really is the worst of all worlds. Especially if it's a new negotiation with partial application, which would be very likely.
davepoth said:
Sway said:
True. Amusingly, the one that is in a CU has long queues at the border, and the one that isn't has virtually none...
Too bloody right. Turkey is the bane of my life for paperwork and whoever in Ankara decides how their non-tariff barriers should work is a Machiavellian genius, and no mistake.I do veterinary certificates for some products I export. Most countries will allow this document to be dated any time after the goods have been sealed into a truck or container. Not Turkey. To get the vet certificate for them the certificate has to be dated after the date it has been sealed into the truck, but before the date of departure from the UK. We also have to name the ship it will be on in the certificate. The certificate takes roughly 15 days to be produced.
That's a fun one to administer. In essence we have to book the container onto a ship three weeks in advance and store it at the dock for that period while the relevant government office churns out a document.
After the third time of this being a complete disaster the sales manager asked "How are we supposed to do this?" and I said "Knowing Turkey, we probably aren't."
That's a Customs Union.
Sway said:
ElectricSoup said:
Amazing how often brexiters make the case for Remain so well.
Really? Does the EU have similar requirements? Your man there was arguing that "a" Customs Union isn't much cop. Fair enough. So that leaves "no" Customs Union or "the" Customs Union as the options. Given that "no" will present even more problems than "a", he surely must have been arguing for "the", which is essentially Remain.
No, he's showing that some backwards nations are crap to deal with regardless of Customs Union.
The EU isn't that bad to deal with as a third nation - anyone importing from outside the EU today realises this. It certainly doesn't pose too many difficulties once the agreement is made on clearance procedures (which isn't the huge deal remain supporters are making it out to be).
The opposing example is Norway/Sweden. Customs border, but pretty damned seamless thanks to will on both sides.
The proposals Davepoth has articulated as being HMRC's plans are the next generation on from that implemented in Scandanavia.
The EU isn't that bad to deal with as a third nation - anyone importing from outside the EU today realises this. It certainly doesn't pose too many difficulties once the agreement is made on clearance procedures (which isn't the huge deal remain supporters are making it out to be).
The opposing example is Norway/Sweden. Customs border, but pretty damned seamless thanks to will on both sides.
The proposals Davepoth has articulated as being HMRC's plans are the next generation on from that implemented in Scandanavia.
Sway said:
No, he's showing that some backwards nations are crap to deal with regardless of Customs Union.
The EU isn't that bad to deal with as a third nation - anyone importing from outside the EU today realises this. It certainly doesn't pose too many difficulties once the agreement is made on clearance procedures (which isn't the huge deal remain supporters are making it out to be).
The opposing example is Norway/Sweden. Customs border, but pretty damned seamless thanks to will on both sides.
The proposals Davepoth has articulated as being HMRC's plans are the next generation on from that implemented in Scandanavia.
And you are 100% certain that this will resolve all problems either political or economic around our land border with the EU?The EU isn't that bad to deal with as a third nation - anyone importing from outside the EU today realises this. It certainly doesn't pose too many difficulties once the agreement is made on clearance procedures (which isn't the huge deal remain supporters are making it out to be).
The opposing example is Norway/Sweden. Customs border, but pretty damned seamless thanks to will on both sides.
The proposals Davepoth has articulated as being HMRC's plans are the next generation on from that implemented in Scandanavia.
Sway said:
edh said:
Sway said:
Non tariff barriers are a thing, but not anywhere near the extent often suggested. They're reducing all the time.
Especially when countries like France applied them on certain goods even when in the club, to no censure...
Sounds like they are a problem in Turkey.... as they might well be in the EU once we diverge our regulations.Especially when countries like France applied them on certain goods even when in the club, to no censure...
I don't get the obsession with "our own free trade deals" as if that's the only thing that matters. Some EU countries do quite well as exporters either within EU FTA's or without them. Why can't we?
Note, I'm not obsessed by 'our own free trade deals' - I'm far more concerned about the ability to set our own inward tariff rates. Far more important for our economy, population, and businesses.
We do very well as a trading nation - only beaten by our capabilities as a consuming nation. It's hardly like we rank poorly for export trade.
Note, our largest export market is the US. No FTA, no Customs Union.
Then it's Germany, Switzerland, China, France and the Netherlands (and I'm pretty confident the French and Dutch exports are effected by the 'Rotterdam Effect' where we export to a port that then consolidates shipping to an onward destination).
edh said:
Sway said:
edh said:
Sway said:
Non tariff barriers are a thing, but not anywhere near the extent often suggested. They're reducing all the time.
Especially when countries like France applied them on certain goods even when in the club, to no censure...
Sounds like they are a problem in Turkey.... as they might well be in the EU once we diverge our regulations.Especially when countries like France applied them on certain goods even when in the club, to no censure...
I don't get the obsession with "our own free trade deals" as if that's the only thing that matters. Some EU countries do quite well as exporters either within EU FTA's or without them. Why can't we?
Note, I'm not obsessed by 'our own free trade deals' - I'm far more concerned about the ability to set our own inward tariff rates. Far more important for our economy, population, and businesses.
We do very well as a trading nation - only beaten by our capabilities as a consuming nation. It's hardly like we rank poorly for export trade.
Note, our largest export market is the US. No FTA, no Customs Union.
Then it's Germany, Switzerland, China, France and the Netherlands (and I'm pretty confident the French and Dutch exports are effected by the 'Rotterdam Effect' where we export to a port that then consolidates shipping to an onward destination).
Liam Fox in 2012
"What should be done? I believe that the best way forward is for Britain to renegotiate a new relationship with the European Union – one based on an economic partnership involving a customs union and a single market in goods and services."
https://www.liamfox.co.uk/news/dr-fox-mail-sunday
"What should be done? I believe that the best way forward is for Britain to renegotiate a new relationship with the European Union – one based on an economic partnership involving a customs union and a single market in goods and services."
https://www.liamfox.co.uk/news/dr-fox-mail-sunday
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