The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 3)
Discussion
SpeckledJim said:
silentbrown said:
Trade deals. Setting our own tariffs and making trade deals is fine, but I find it hard to square with destroying the "trade deal" we already have that accounts for 40%+ of our international trade. Frying pan and fire.
Because hand-in-hand with the 40% comes a protectionist fence that constrains our contact with the 60%.And the 40% is falling every year.
And the wealth in the RoW is much greater, and growing, whereas the EU is sliding towards a collapse.
The longer we wait with the EU, the worse the inside
utside ratios get.Countries around the world trade happily with each other without political union or in many cases even trade deals. It isn't the 'trade deal' that accounts for 40% of our trade it's just people buying stuff.
SpeckledJim said:
Because hand-in-hand with the 40% comes a protectionist fence that constrains our contact with the 60%.
And the 40% is falling every year.
And the wealth in the RoW is much greater, and growing, whereas the EU is sliding towards a collapse.
The longer we wait with the EU, the worse the insideutside ratios get.
Well the constraints can't be working very well if the 40% is decreasing and the 60% increasing. And the 40% is falling every year.
And the wealth in the RoW is much greater, and growing, whereas the EU is sliding towards a collapse.
The longer we wait with the EU, the worse the inside
utside ratios get.PurpleMoonlight said:
SpeckledJim said:
Because hand-in-hand with the 40% comes a protectionist fence that constrains our contact with the 60%.
And the 40% is falling every year.
And the wealth in the RoW is much greater, and growing, whereas the EU is sliding towards a collapse.
The longer we wait with the EU, the worse the insideutside ratios get.
Well the constraints can't be working very well if the 40% is decreasing and the 60% increasing. And the 40% is falling every year.
And the wealth in the RoW is much greater, and growing, whereas the EU is sliding towards a collapse.
The longer we wait with the EU, the worse the inside
utside ratios get.If the RoW willingness to trade overcomes the constraints already, imagine the possibilities if you remove the constraints.
And if, even with the benefit of free trade, the business we do with the EU is falling as a proportion anyway, perhaps that’s a big clue as to the way the wind is blowing.
The centre of gravity of the worlds wealth and trade is already outside the EU, and is quickly moving ever further away.
Tuna said:
If EU membership was just a trade deal, then it would (arguably) have been an issue for the government to decide. The fact that the remit has grown somewhat since we first joined is the whole point of the argument, and the reason for taking it to the people.
It's not like the Schuman Declaration made it really clear that the remit was always a federal Europe formed over a great period of time or anything.I'm concerned for JRM - he seems to think that soft-boiled eggs are not boiled eggs. I think he needs a better nanny if she's only making him hard boiled eggs. The man's never enjoyed a good soldier.
wst said:
Tuna said:
If EU membership was just a trade deal, then it would (arguably) have been an issue for the government to decide. The fact that the remit has grown somewhat since we first joined is the whole point of the argument, and the reason for taking it to the people.
It's not like the Schuman Declaration made it really clear that the remit was always a federal Europe formed over a great period of time or anything.I'm concerned for JRM - he seems to think that soft-boiled eggs are not boiled eggs. I think he needs a better nanny if she's only making him hard boiled eggs. The man's never enjoyed a good soldier.
SpeckledJim said:
Very odd reading of the situation.
If the RoW willingness to trade overcomes the constraints already, imagine the possibilities if you remove the constraints.
And if, even with the benefit of free trade, the business we do with the EU is falling as a proportion anyway, perhaps that’s a big clue as to the way the wind is blowing.
The centre of gravity of the worlds wealth and trade is already outside the EU, and is quickly moving ever further away.
Where is it moving to ?If the RoW willingness to trade overcomes the constraints already, imagine the possibilities if you remove the constraints.
And if, even with the benefit of free trade, the business we do with the EU is falling as a proportion anyway, perhaps that’s a big clue as to the way the wind is blowing.
The centre of gravity of the worlds wealth and trade is already outside the EU, and is quickly moving ever further away.
Tryke3 said:
SpeckledJim said:
Very odd reading of the situation.
If the RoW willingness to trade overcomes the constraints already, imagine the possibilities if you remove the constraints.
And if, even with the benefit of free trade, the business we do with the EU is falling as a proportion anyway, perhaps that’s a big clue as to the way the wind is blowing.
The centre of gravity of the worlds wealth and trade is already outside the EU, and is quickly moving ever further away.
Where is it moving to ?If the RoW willingness to trade overcomes the constraints already, imagine the possibilities if you remove the constraints.
And if, even with the benefit of free trade, the business we do with the EU is falling as a proportion anyway, perhaps that’s a big clue as to the way the wind is blowing.
The centre of gravity of the worlds wealth and trade is already outside the EU, and is quickly moving ever further away.
Tuna said:
Well no, because TM's proposals appear to include things like compulsory regulatory alignment, which actually adds a rule that does put us (nominally) at the mercy of the EU.
It also appears to limit our abilities to set our own trade terms with third parties, which again gives the EU more say over our future economic status whilst abandoning our ability to influence that control.
I doubt that the EU could (or would) ban three pin plugs overnight, but clearly being subject to EU control whilst not actually having membership would potentially put us at a huge global disadvantage.
This is the crux of the argument - we need to be either properly in or properly out. I'm not actually that fussed which it is, but the Referendum said out, so we need to get there without conceding power to the EU. Brexit in name only sounds fluffy and safe ("we're not really leaving"), but actually risks the most harm for the country of all the options.
The official final document remains heavily caveated IMO.It also appears to limit our abilities to set our own trade terms with third parties, which again gives the EU more say over our future economic status whilst abandoning our ability to influence that control.
I doubt that the EU could (or would) ban three pin plugs overnight, but clearly being subject to EU control whilst not actually having membership would potentially put us at a huge global disadvantage.
This is the crux of the argument - we need to be either properly in or properly out. I'm not actually that fussed which it is, but the Referendum said out, so we need to get there without conceding power to the EU. Brexit in name only sounds fluffy and safe ("we're not really leaving"), but actually risks the most harm for the country of all the options.
It might mean what you note. It might not. The EU won't be signing up to it without the details being drafted. That will be when we need to worry (or not).
Sway said:
Ghibli said:
Do you actually follow what is going on in these negotiations?
Yes. I have mentioned a few times that I broadly ignore them. The actual interesting bit is yet to happen - all both sides are doing is priming the crisis that'll actually drive talks.I called you ignorant of customs practices because you demonstrated very clearly you are, giving the areas of misunderstanding so you could educate yourself.
Ghibli said:
Sway said:
Ghibli said:
Do you actually follow what is going on in these negotiations?
Yes. I have mentioned a few times that I broadly ignore them. The actual interesting bit is yet to happen - all both sides are doing is priming the crisis that'll actually drive talks.I called you ignorant of customs practices because you demonstrated very clearly you are, giving the areas of misunderstanding so you could educate yourself.
As is the last.
pgh said:
Ghibli said:
For pgh
Much obliged, although on a different thread so lucky for me I spotted it. I don’t think broadly ignore means “not follow at all”, instead, to me at least, it conveys disinterest. Sway’s point that this is just the warm up phase seems valid based on usual EU modus operandi.
Seems a strong leap to call Sway a liar based on that.
Anyway, it's not important now that sway has solved all of the negotiations.
Ghibli said:
Sway said:
Ghibli said:
Do you actually follow what is going on in these negotiations?
Yes. I have mentioned a few times that I broadly ignore them. The actual interesting bit is yet to happen - all both sides are doing is priming the crisis that'll actually drive talks.I called you ignorant of customs practices because you demonstrated very clearly you are, giving the areas of misunderstanding so you could educate yourself.
He didn’t say what you’ve said he said, and you couldn’t even put it on the right thread. Well done.
http://www.internationalinvestment.net/brexit/hsbc...
HSBC to move 7 offices to Paris
Just wait until the big manufacturers, Airbus, Nissan, Honda, Toyota begin to make moves to relocate and middle income earners have their jobs threatened. It won’t be pretty.
HSBC to move 7 offices to Paris
Just wait until the big manufacturers, Airbus, Nissan, Honda, Toyota begin to make moves to relocate and middle income earners have their jobs threatened. It won’t be pretty.
Roboraver said:
The article states it's moving the offices in it's organisational structure. So they will be operated by the Paris based business entity. They don't know yet if none/some/all of the actual staff/jobs will move.Hey don't shoot the messenger, just posting facts mind:
Meanwhile, mostly under the radar, shipping insurers start to move away from Lloyd’s
http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/europe/greec...
Meanwhile, mostly under the radar, shipping insurers start to move away from Lloyd’s
http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/europe/greec...
Roboraver said:
http://www.internationalinvestment.net/brexit/hsbc...
HSBC to move 7 offices to Paris
Just wait until the big manufacturers, Airbus, Nissan, Honda, Toyota begin to make moves to relocate and middle income earners have their jobs threatened. It won’t be pretty.
Your mention of the Japanese car brands got me thinking, as my impression is that they aren’t too popular in mainland Europe. HSBC to move 7 offices to Paris
Just wait until the big manufacturers, Airbus, Nissan, Honda, Toyota begin to make moves to relocate and middle income earners have their jobs threatened. It won’t be pretty.
It appears Honda sales throughout the EU members have declined steadily over the past 10 years and are now less than 45% of what they were in 2010.
Also, 38% of Hondas EU sales are to the UK.
Why would they relocate to where they are clearly not wanted?
REALIST123 said:
Your mention of the Japanese car brands got me thinking, as my impression is that they aren’t too popular in mainland Europe.
It appears Honda sales throughout the EU members have declined steadily over the past 10 years and are now less than 45% of what they were in 2010.
Also, 38% of Hondas EU sales are to the UK.
Why would they relocate to where they are clearly not wanted?
Because they were upset we didn't vote to Remain?It appears Honda sales throughout the EU members have declined steadily over the past 10 years and are now less than 45% of what they were in 2010.
Also, 38% of Hondas EU sales are to the UK.
Why would they relocate to where they are clearly not wanted?
Or possibly Gloria's off canvassing them since he finished with Nissan
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff