The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 3)

The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 3)

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Discussion

Tuna

19,930 posts

284 months

Friday 29th May 2020
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TBH It's more likely just a political lever to attempt to force Germany into allowing their site to go ahead, but amusing none the less.


barryrs

4,390 posts

223 months

Friday 29th May 2020
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I’d be surprised if the Somerset site could accommodate them as well as I think a fair chunk will be taken up by Hinkley C related businesses.

Still that factory will have a massive energy demand and close proximity to a new nuclear power station would be a bonus.

Tuna

19,930 posts

284 months

Monday 1st June 2020
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barryrs said:
I’d be surprised if the Somerset site could accommodate them as well as I think a fair chunk will be taken up by Hinkley C related businesses.

Still that factory will have a massive energy demand and close proximity to a new nuclear power station would be a bonus.
Since no-one else wants to make the obvious joke...

The innovation for Teslas built in the UK will be that they save on battery usage by glowing in the dark.

Fittster

20,120 posts

213 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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"The UK's largest car manufacturing plant is "unsustainable" if the UK leaves the European Union without a trade deal, owner Nissan says.

The Japanese company's global chief operating head told the BBC people had to understand the EU was the Sunderland factory's biggest customer.

Ashwani Gupta said that Nissan's commitment could not be maintained if there was not tariff-free EU access."

Just bluffing?

p1stonhead

25,549 posts

167 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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Fittster said:
"The UK's largest car manufacturing plant is "unsustainable" if the UK leaves the European Union without a trade deal, owner Nissan says.

The Japanese company's global chief operating head told the BBC people had to understand the EU was the Sunderland factory's biggest customer.

Ashwani Gupta said that Nissan's commitment could not be maintained if there was not tariff-free EU access."

Just bluffing?
Genuinely why would they even contemplate staying here without tariff free access?

amusingduck

9,396 posts

136 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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Fittster said:
"The UK's largest car manufacturing plant is "unsustainable" if the UK leaves the European Union without a trade deal, owner Nissan says.

The Japanese company's global chief operating head told the BBC people had to understand the EU was the Sunderland factory's biggest customer.

Ashwani Gupta said that Nissan's commitment could not be maintained if there was not tariff-free EU access."

Just bluffing?
They're closing their Barcelona plant at a reported expected cost of €1.5bn - a figure which would take seven years to recover - based on the assumption that there will be a trade deal between two parties that show no signs of reconciliation?

I want some of what they're taking laugh

amusingduck

9,396 posts

136 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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p1stonhead said:
Genuinely why would they even contemplate staying here without tariff free access?
Why would they close their only EU factory instead of the Sunderland factory if manufacturing here without tariff free access was uncontemplatable?


s2art

18,937 posts

253 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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p1stonhead said:
Genuinely why would they even contemplate staying here without tariff free access?
Perhaps they anticipate an FTA in the near future (even if not by 1/1/21). Given the trade surplus the EU have, its common sense to assume it will happen sooner or later.

Tuna

19,930 posts

284 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
quotequote all
Fittster said:
"The UK's largest car manufacturing plant is "unsustainable" if the UK leaves the European Union without a trade deal, owner Nissan says.

The Japanese company's global chief operating head told the BBC people had to understand the EU was the Sunderland factory's biggest customer.

Ashwani Gupta said that Nissan's commitment could not be maintained if there was not tariff-free EU access."

Just bluffing?
Nissan, trying to influence the outcome of negotiations? I am *shocked* to the core. roflrofl

..almost as shocked as I am by Remainers leaping on it as a sign that we must capitulate in the current negotiations. rolleyes

paulrockliffe

15,705 posts

227 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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s2art said:
p1stonhead said:
Genuinely why would they even contemplate staying here without tariff free access?
Perhaps they anticipate an FTA in the near future (even if not by 1/1/21). Given the trade surplus the EU have, its common sense to assume it will happen sooner or later.
Or perhaps the tariff adds 10% to the retail price, but it's offset in savings in the cost of manufacture at the most efficient plant in the world? They gain advantage in their largest European market as well as they'll be zero tariff in the UK while they're competitors have to swallow their own tariffs.

Sway

26,277 posts

194 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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paulrockliffe said:
s2art said:
p1stonhead said:
Genuinely why would they even contemplate staying here without tariff free access?
Perhaps they anticipate an FTA in the near future (even if not by 1/1/21). Given the trade surplus the EU have, its common sense to assume it will happen sooner or later.
Or perhaps the tariff adds 10% to the retail price, but it's offset in savings in the cost of manufacture at the most efficient plant in the world? They gain advantage in their largest European market as well as they'll be zero tariff in the UK while they're competitors have to swallow their own tariffs.
Point of note - it doesn't add 10% to retail price. Any tariffs are applied to the cost price, not the retail price.

powerstroke

10,283 posts

160 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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s2art said:
p1stonhead said:
Genuinely why would they even contemplate staying here without tariff free access?
Perhaps they anticipate an FTA in the near future (even if not by 1/1/21). Given the trade surplus the EU have, its common sense to assume it will happen sooner or later.
This ... and you only have to look about to see how many german cars trucks and vans we buy !! surely the EU
aren't that stupid and if they are they will have most of the Euro motor industry asking some seriious questions .....

PRTVR

7,108 posts

221 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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p1stonhead said:
Fittster said:
"The UK's largest car manufacturing plant is "unsustainable" if the UK leaves the European Union without a trade deal, owner Nissan says.

The Japanese company's global chief operating head told the BBC people had to understand the EU was the Sunderland factory's biggest customer.

Ashwani Gupta said that Nissan's commitment could not be maintained if there was not tariff-free EU access."

Just bluffing?
Genuinely why would they even contemplate staying here without tariff free access?
I have an idea, if most of the cars on the road are imported from the EU, they will have a tariff on them, we can use that to subsidise cars exported to the EU.
Sunderland is one of the most productive car plants in the world.

citizensm1th

8,371 posts

137 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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amusingduck said:
Why would they close their only EU factory instead of the Sunderland factory if manufacturing here without tariff free access was uncontemplatable?

Because they will build cars in France at under utilised Renault factories the French government is keeping open, Cummings is not the only one who can play 4d chess

Sway

26,277 posts

194 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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citizensm1th said:
amusingduck said:
Why would they close their only EU factory instead of the Sunderland factory if manufacturing here without tariff free access was uncontemplatable?

Because they will build cars in France at under utilised Renault factories the French government is keeping open, Cummings is not the only one who can play 4d chess
The costs of building in inefficient factories staffed under French employment law massively outweigh a tariff as low as ten percent...

citizensm1th

8,371 posts

137 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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Sway said:
The costs of building in inefficient factories staffed under French employment law massively outweigh a tariff as low as ten percent...
But the only tariff they would pay is in the UK, I wonder where they would sell more cars if they were making them inside the single market the UK or the EU? And the French would bend over backwards to get one over the UK so I'd fully expect some sneaky back door financial help if Nissan did offer to keep French worker working.

Earthdweller

13,556 posts

126 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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citizensm1th said:
Because they will build cars in France at under utilised Renault factories the French government is keeping open, Cummings is not the only one who can play 4d chess
Are they the factories they are closing and part of the 15000 job losses Renault have just announced ?

There were reports that some Renault models production would also be transferred to Sunderland, the Captur being one mentioned


citizensm1th

8,371 posts

137 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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Earthdweller said:
Are they the factories they are closing and part of the 15000 job losses Renault have just announced ?

There were reports that some Renault models production would also be transferred to Sunderland, the Captur being one mentioned
I heard the French government had stepped in and said non and you know those commie bastids more than will g to chuck money at a national industry

anonymous-user

54 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
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citizensm1th said:
But the only tariff they would pay is in the UK, I wonder where they would sell more cars if they were making them inside the single market the UK or the EU? And the French would bend over backwards to get one over the UK so I'd fully expect some sneaky back door financial help if Nissan did offer to keep French worker working.
Nissan wont build anything in France, it also is committed to expanding its UK sales, that's one of its major European strategies for future growth. If they moved to France and we don't have an FTA, then our WTO import rate is 10% on cars, so they would be moving to massively increase costs, reduce efficiency, tie in future high shutdown costs if it goes wrong and have to invest in an expensive move. Not happening, they would likely just abandon Europe completely and build Japan only.

citizensm1th

8,371 posts

137 months

Wednesday 3rd June 2020
quotequote all
jsf said:
Nissan wont build anything in France, it also is committed to expanding its UK sales, that's one of its major European strategies for future growth. If they moved to France and we don't have an FTA, then our WTO import rate is 10% on cars, so they would be moving to massively increase costs, reduce efficiency, tie in future high shutdown costs if it goes wrong and have to invest in an expensive move. Not happening, they would likely just abandon Europe completely and build Japan only.
Quite but they have stated they will go if there is no fta so I guess they will change their growth plans accordingly, its all bks anyway as we all know cavey mccavey boris will end up signing some botch of an fta and spin it as a great British success