The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 3)
Discussion
ElectricSoup said:
Jesus this is hard work. The post-vote recession was averted by swift Bank of England action immediately after the s
tty result came through. Had they not acted, the Remain campaign would, in all likelihood, have been proven right. But, rightly, nobody wanted that, so Plan B was devised. The BoE acted. Recession averted. We are where we are now. Which is a bit worse off than we would otherwise have been with a Remain vote due to lost growth. Which is a shame.
Of course, we haven't left yet. We've just kicked the worst down the road.
How many times does this have to be said? "Look Look we were right!! It was all Project Fear!!!" Conveniently missing out the vital information from the desired Leavist narrative, of course and conveniently never acknowledging that the lies of the Leaveist Project Fear about Turkey joining the EU, the Superstate and the EU Army and all that schemozzle hasn't happened and won't happen.
Sick of it all. Bullstters, everywhere. You're not going to get away with it.
Assuming you are correct on Carneys actions. Should he not have been saying prior to the vote that if the vote goes to leave, the BOE will put in place policies that will mitigate the change in direction the UK will be doing, rather than spinning furiously for a remain vote and using project fear. When UK did vote leave what do you think that position by the BOE did to the currency markets? It was bound to make it look like a run away from the UK scenario and that's what happened, we saw a massive overselling of sterling, which is now being corrected.tty result came through. Had they not acted, the Remain campaign would, in all likelihood, have been proven right. But, rightly, nobody wanted that, so Plan B was devised. The BoE acted. Recession averted. We are where we are now. Which is a bit worse off than we would otherwise have been with a Remain vote due to lost growth. Which is a shame.Of course, we haven't left yet. We've just kicked the worst down the road.
How many times does this have to be said? "Look Look we were right!! It was all Project Fear!!!" Conveniently missing out the vital information from the desired Leavist narrative, of course and conveniently never acknowledging that the lies of the Leaveist Project Fear about Turkey joining the EU, the Superstate and the EU Army and all that schemozzle hasn't happened and won't happen.
Sick of it all. Bulls
tters, everywhere. You're not going to get away with it.His job was not to get involved in politics, he failed.
Its also worth noting that some of the extra inflation UK saw was a direct result of his misjudged lowering of the base rate, he shouldn't have done that, it wasn't required.
Its worth you reading the BOE minutes of why they made that rate reduction. They thought even with the rate reduction and extra stimulus inflation would fall and unemployment would increase, they were worried UK would fall back away from the 2% inflation target. They got that badly wrong. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-su...
PurpleMoonlight said:
Ridgemont said:
The real story is that the forecasts were all bunce.
Aren't they always, from all quarters.Probably why leavers have never produced any as far as I am aware.
Edited by PurpleMoonlight on Friday 26th January 17:41
Ridgemont said:
Carney’s amazing plan that staved off an immediate recession as forecast after the vote can be summarised thus:
1) a quarter point base rate fall in Aug ‘16
2) £60bn QE
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/04/b...
There is a little scepticism abroad that the continued absence of any vote related recession is due to Carney’s Amazing Plan (TM). There are plenty on the leave side who have a sneaking suspicion that that absence is probably due to the fact it was all complete bks in the first place.
Well, that's it then. How can you argue that plenty on the leave side have sneaking suspicion that that absence is probably due to the fact that it was all b1) a quarter point base rate fall in Aug ‘16
2) £60bn QE
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/04/b...
There is a little scepticism abroad that the continued absence of any vote related recession is due to Carney’s Amazing Plan (TM). There are plenty on the leave side who have a sneaking suspicion that that absence is probably due to the fact it was all complete b
ks in the first place.ks. You just can't put the price on an argument like that. Usually actions of BoE's have no impact. They are there to try to confuse hard working people. jjlynn27 said:
Well, that's it then. How can you argue that plenty on the leave side have sneaking suspicion that that absence is probably due to the fact that it was all bks. You just can't put the price on an argument like that. Usually actions of BoE's have no impact. They are there to try to confuse hard working people.
Read the policy change statement by the BOE i just posted, they got it wrong badly and that change drove down the £ further, increasing inflation above target. They implemented a policy to drive up inflation deliberately, because they expected much lower growth and higher unemployment. That was a big error of judgement.ks. You just can't put the price on an argument like that. Usually actions of BoE's have no impact. They are there to try to confuse hard working people. The Brexit related BoE forecasts were obvious bks, they assumed no action from........ The BoE.
The none Brexit forecasts we can see have also been bks, incompetence, influence of political opinion, or just impossible to predict accurately? No idea.
The idea that we got lucky and things would be even better if we were staying in the EU is risible in the context of the above.
Carney has no credibility, though that's not really a key part of his job so if he just shuts up and does his job well it doesn't matter too much.
It's straws for the weirdos on here to clutch though.
ks, they assumed no action from........ The BoE.The none Brexit forecasts we can see have also been b
ks, incompetence, influence of political opinion, or just impossible to predict accurately? No idea.The idea that we got lucky and things would be even better if we were staying in the EU is risible in the context of the above.
Carney has no credibility, though that's not really a key part of his job so if he just shuts up and does his job well it doesn't matter too much.
It's straws for the weirdos on here to clutch though.
jjlynn27 said:
It's fun to read 'facts' from armchair experts, who went to school both days and can't figure out that it's not Carney, but MPC in charge of interest rates.
Anyhow, have a good weekend everyone.
So what makes you an expert then jj,are you better qualified than Paul Johnson ofAnyhow, have a good weekend everyone.
the IFS for instance? That's the institute for fiscal studies btw,I know how 3 letter words can confuse you somewhat.
jjlynn27 said:
It's fun to read 'facts' from armchair experts, who went to school both days and can't figure out that it's not Carney, but MPC in charge of interest rates.
Anyhow, have a good weekend everyone.
Which is why i linked to the policy document of the BOE and used the term they in my post.Anyhow, have a good weekend everyone.
You appear to be word blind and ignore posts that don't meet your narrative.
The Dangerous Elk said:
jjlynn27 said:
It's fun to read 'facts' from armchair experts
And you are what precisely ?Hey ho. It’s all good news either way in the context of this thread’s topic: the economic impact of Brexit thus far appears to be manageable and no apparent Armageddon as yet.
Ridgemont said:
The Dangerous Elk said:
jjlynn27 said:
It's fun to read 'facts' from armchair experts
And you are what precisely ?Hey ho. It’s all good news either way in the context of this thread’s topic: the economic impact of Brexit thus far appears to be manageable and no apparent Armageddon as yet.
didn't go his way. I wonder if that had any effect on the economy at all.
jjlynn27 said:
It's fun to read 'facts' from armchair experts, who went to school both days and can't figure out that it's not Carney, but MPC in charge of interest rates.
Anyhow, have a good weekend everyone.
Have a good'n!Anyhow, have a good weekend everyone.
Be aware of whom you are lecturing to - and even more - to whom you are dictating policy determined by you!
Ridgemont said:
Apparently an expert who ignores the references in the thread to the MPC but castigated posters for mixing Carney and the MPC up. And then ran away.
Hey ho. It’s all good news either way in the context of this thread’s topic: the economic impact of Brexit thus far appears to be manageable and no apparent Armageddon as yet.
I never claimed that I was an expert. But compared to someone who 'mixes Carney and the MPC up', I could look like an expert. Nobody said that it won't be 'manageable'. And the reason that it wasn't 'Armageddon', was because those educated and experienced people, unlike people who are doing the 'mixing up', took appropriate action. Hey ho. It’s all good news either way in the context of this thread’s topic: the economic impact of Brexit thus far appears to be manageable and no apparent Armageddon as yet.
'ran away' ....
jjlynn27 said:
Ridgemont said:
Carney’s amazing plan that staved off an immediate recession as forecast after the vote can be summarised thus:
1) a quarter point base rate fall in Aug ‘16
2) £60bn QE
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/04/b...
There is a little scepticism abroad that the continued absence of any vote related recession is due to Carney’s Amazing Plan (TM). There are plenty on the leave side who have a sneaking suspicion that that absence is probably due to the fact it was all complete bks in the first place.
Well, that's it then. How can you argue that plenty on the leave side have sneaking suspicion that that absence is probably due to the fact that it was all b1) a quarter point base rate fall in Aug ‘16
2) £60bn QE
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/04/b...
There is a little scepticism abroad that the continued absence of any vote related recession is due to Carney’s Amazing Plan (TM). There are plenty on the leave side who have a sneaking suspicion that that absence is probably due to the fact it was all complete b
ks in the first place.ks. You just can't put the price on an argument like that. Usually actions of BoE's have no impact. They are there to try to confuse hard working people. jjlynn27 said:
I never claimed that I was an expert. But compared to someone who 'mixes Carney and the MPC up', I could look like an expert. Nobody said that it won't be 'manageable'. And the reason that it wasn't 'Armageddon', was because those educated and experienced people, unlike people who are doing the 'mixing up', took appropriate action.
'ran away' ....
Educated and experienced people like Osborne you mean, or 'ran away' ....
more like Paul Johnson would you say?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-econo...
Edited by gooner1 on Saturday 27th January 22:40
gooner1 said:
Educated and experienced people like Osborne you mean, or
more like Paul Johndon would you say?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-econo...
If it wasn't clear I was talking about MPC. more like Paul Johndon would you say?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-econo...
But thanks for that link, it's an interesting and educated opinion, and while I might not share some of those, it was very interesting to read. So much so, that I'll look for his other stuff to read.
jjlynn27 said:
If it wasn't clear I was talking about MPC.
But thanks for that link, it's an interesting and educated opinion, and while I might not share some of those, it was very interesting to read. So much so, that I'll look for his other stuff to read.
But thanks for that link, it's an interesting and educated opinion, and while I might not share some of those, it was very interesting to read. So much so, that I'll look for his other stuff to read.
jjlynn27 said:
If it wasn't clear I was talking about MPC.
But thanks for that link, it's an interesting and educated opinion, and while I might not share some of those, it was very interesting to read. So much so, that I'll look for his other stuff to read.
I was aware re MPC, but felt that any confusion anyone was experiencing, has beenBut thanks for that link, it's an interesting and educated opinion, and while I might not share some of those, it was very interesting to read. So much so, that I'll look for his other stuff to read.
adequetlely dispelled by others.
No problem re the link, it's always good to hear other views.
Must admit though, it's nice to have an expert confirm
my opinions , that not only was Osborne's claim that an
" emergency budget" was needed was false, but also that, said budget
was an emergency one in the generally accepted sence of the word.
i:e “But to say ‘we will have a budget immediately and cut spending immediately in the face of a negative economic shock’, it wasn’t credible.” Quote Paul Johnsom head of IFS
Edited by gooner1 on Saturday 27th January 23:45
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff