The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 3)
Discussion
paulrockliffe said:
davepoth said:
Were I to pluck a figure out of the air I'd go for something like £5bn, but that really is heavily dependent upon how easy it is to make a customs declaration using the new CDS system, since it's free to use. If it's "click,click, export" then there's little reason to spend money having someone do it for you.
A quick Google suggests that CDS will have API support, so the answer to your question is it'll be as easy as the software you use makes it. If you're with someone decent and there's a quick update then it should be fairly painless.This bloke’s experiences suggests the £20Bn might not be quite such an exaggeration:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrie...
Interesting that he discussed how he has chased up Hoy and Hannah to brand then idiots / liars on such matters, accusing them of deliberately or ignorantly promoting misleading bulls
t on various borders.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrie...
Interesting that he discussed how he has chased up Hoy and Hannah to brand then idiots / liars on such matters, accusing them of deliberately or ignorantly promoting misleading bulls
t on various borders. PurpleMoonlight said:
JagLover said:
Interesting that the 44% figure is already out of date as the next year for which there is data (2016) it was down to 43%
Even before we voted to leave the EU its share of our exports was falling rapidly and this was forecast to continue past 2030. PWC (before the referendum) forecast it would be 37% of our exports by 2030.
Apparently we are supposed to remain a vassal state for 37% of our exports....
Just shows the EU isn't holding us back huh.Even before we voted to leave the EU its share of our exports was falling rapidly and this was forecast to continue past 2030. PWC (before the referendum) forecast it would be 37% of our exports by 2030.
Apparently we are supposed to remain a vassal state for 37% of our exports....
Gloria Slap said:
This bloke’s experiences suggests the £20Bn might not be quite such an exaggeration:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrie...
Interesting that he discussed how he has chased up Hoy and Hannah to brand then idiots / liars on such matters, accusing them of deliberately or ignorantly promoting misleading bullst on various borders.
Is JoB the new Independent now?https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrie...
Interesting that he discussed how he has chased up Hoy and Hannah to brand then idiots / liars on such matters, accusing them of deliberately or ignorantly promoting misleading bulls
t on various borders. One basic logical fallacy is that the costs of exporting to the EU will put that van driver out of business. If everyone has to follow a regime (no matter how ridiculous and expensive it might be) the field is level and no-one is going to be out of business due to the complexities of the regime itself.
The knock on effect (friction for business) is indeed more serious. I'd suggest the reason that particular van driver's experience was so bad was because van drivers handling individual, non pre-arranged shipments to Switzerland through the EU from Dover are sufficiently small in numbers that 'solving' the problem of delays and cost has not been given any priority.
The inevitable comparison has to be with global companies handling large numbers of transactions of moderate complexity and duration. You could look at someone like a holiday booking company - they have to deal with customers in one country booking a vacation in another country up to a year in advance, whilst flying with an airline based in a third country, all handled by an agent based in a fourth country. To fulfil the booking, taxes, currency conversions, booking slots and availability have to be coordinated and suitable payment, invoices, proof of booking, proof of identity and e-tickets have to be managed. If you look at one of the large players like Booking.com, they handle easily a hundred million bookings a year, representing nearly two million separate properties and tens of thousands of agents, carriers and support services.
Does it cost them £60 a booking like JoB's magic van driver? No. I'd guess it's under $5 for the raw cost of processing.
So... where there's a will there's a way.
You can ask the other question - is the UK government capable of delivering such a system. The evidence isn't good. However, the business pressure to solve the problem as efficiently as possible is huge, so somehow I doubt it would remain unsolved for long.
Tuna said:
Is JoB the new Independent now?
One basic logical fallacy is that the costs of exporting to the EU will put that van driver out of business. If everyone has to follow a regime (no matter how ridiculous and expensive it might be) the field is level and no-one is going to be out of business due to the complexities of the regime itself.
The knock on effect (friction for business) is indeed more serious. I'd suggest the reason that particular van driver's experience was so bad was because van drivers handling individual, non pre-arranged shipments to Switzerland through the EU from Dover are sufficiently small in numbers that 'solving' the problem of delays and cost has not been given any priority.
The inevitable comparison has to be with global companies handling large numbers of transactions of moderate complexity and duration. You could look at someone like a holiday booking company - they have to deal with customers in one country booking a vacation in another country up to a year in advance, whilst flying with an airline based in a third country, all handled by an agent based in a fourth country. To fulfil the booking, taxes, currency conversions, booking slots and availability have to be coordinated and suitable payment, invoices, proof of booking, proof of identity and e-tickets have to be managed. If you look at one of the large players like Booking.com, they handle easily a hundred million bookings a year, representing nearly two million separate properties and tens of thousands of agents, carriers and support services.
Does it cost them £60 a booking like JoB's magic van driver? No. I'd guess it's under $5 for the raw cost of processing.
So... where there's a will there's a way.
You can ask the other question - is the UK government capable of delivering such a system. The evidence isn't good. However, the business pressure to solve the problem as efficiently as possible is huge, so somehow I doubt it would remain unsolved for long.
What do you do for a living Tuna?One basic logical fallacy is that the costs of exporting to the EU will put that van driver out of business. If everyone has to follow a regime (no matter how ridiculous and expensive it might be) the field is level and no-one is going to be out of business due to the complexities of the regime itself.
The knock on effect (friction for business) is indeed more serious. I'd suggest the reason that particular van driver's experience was so bad was because van drivers handling individual, non pre-arranged shipments to Switzerland through the EU from Dover are sufficiently small in numbers that 'solving' the problem of delays and cost has not been given any priority.
The inevitable comparison has to be with global companies handling large numbers of transactions of moderate complexity and duration. You could look at someone like a holiday booking company - they have to deal with customers in one country booking a vacation in another country up to a year in advance, whilst flying with an airline based in a third country, all handled by an agent based in a fourth country. To fulfil the booking, taxes, currency conversions, booking slots and availability have to be coordinated and suitable payment, invoices, proof of booking, proof of identity and e-tickets have to be managed. If you look at one of the large players like Booking.com, they handle easily a hundred million bookings a year, representing nearly two million separate properties and tens of thousands of agents, carriers and support services.
Does it cost them £60 a booking like JoB's magic van driver? No. I'd guess it's under $5 for the raw cost of processing.
So... where there's a will there's a way.
You can ask the other question - is the UK government capable of delivering such a system. The evidence isn't good. However, the business pressure to solve the problem as efficiently as possible is huge, so somehow I doubt it would remain unsolved for long.
I’m genuinely confused as to how you can sweep away that video clip.
I'm airfreighting stuff in from China. Its costing me $7 per kilo in total including all documentation/ customs declarations etc. I cannot see the freight company hiding £65 paperwork costs in the transport cost.
I can even get Chinese product in quicker than I can get product from Italy.
I reckon freight companies would sort all this paperwork kerfuffle very easily if left to get on with it.
BTW the WTO tariff I pay on my Chinese stuff is 2% and would be 1.5% on the products I import from Italy. A Brexit on WTO rules holds absolutely no fears for me.
Cheers,
Tony
I can even get Chinese product in quicker than I can get product from Italy.
I reckon freight companies would sort all this paperwork kerfuffle very easily if left to get on with it.
BTW the WTO tariff I pay on my Chinese stuff is 2% and would be 1.5% on the products I import from Italy. A Brexit on WTO rules holds absolutely no fears for me.
Cheers,
Tony
Gloria Slap said:
What do you do for a living Tuna?
I’m genuinely confused as to how you can sweep away that video clip.
For starters, there's no need to do a CMR note for moves in the EU - a normal delivery note will do. I’m genuinely confused as to how you can sweep away that video clip.
Working down, the documents required are a customs declaration at each end - free in the UK (if you do it yourself) and at the importer's cost in Switzerland. The only other item is the EUR.1, which does cost money (about £30) but isn't compulsory.
Route 1 inspection is a documentary check, route 2 is the full physical inspection. It's annoying, but it doesn't cause the RoW shipments to fall over.
One thing that perhaps this guy could have expanded on a little is that, post Brexit, he won't have anywhere near as much competition from the cheaper Polish express van drivers - surely an opportunity for more business not less? When you get lemons, you need to make lemonade.
davepoth said:
For starters, there's no need to do a CMR note for moves in the EU - a normal delivery note will do.
Working down, the documents required are a customs declaration at each end - free in the UK (if you do it yourself) and at the importer's cost in Switzerland. The only other item is the EUR.1, which does cost money (about £30) but isn't compulsory.
Route 1 inspection is a documentary check, route 2 is the full physical inspection. It's annoying, but it doesn't cause the RoW shipments to fall over.
One thing that perhaps this guy could have expanded on a little is that, post Brexit, he won't have anywhere near as much competition from the cheaper Polish express van drivers - surely an opportunity for more business not less? When you get lemons, you need to make lemonade.
The issue is that there is an impact on the supply chain that may tip the balance towatds altenative supply. Working down, the documents required are a customs declaration at each end - free in the UK (if you do it yourself) and at the importer's cost in Switzerland. The only other item is the EUR.1, which does cost money (about £30) but isn't compulsory.
Route 1 inspection is a documentary check, route 2 is the full physical inspection. It's annoying, but it doesn't cause the RoW shipments to fall over.
One thing that perhaps this guy could have expanded on a little is that, post Brexit, he won't have anywhere near as much competition from the cheaper Polish express van drivers - surely an opportunity for more business not less? When you get lemons, you need to make lemonade.
Sure times it won’t matter, but there will be cases - argueably many - where suppliers switch supply to avoid the friction.
If it is not sorted it could impact decisions to avoid sourcing from frictiony UK, and even influence manufacturing location.
Do people really think this is not considered when optimising a supply chain?
I guess if your answer to questions such as “can I predict which supply chain is better” is “I don’t and can’t possibly know as predictions are worthless” then perhaps you don’t.
Sway said:
Atomic12C said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Atomic12C said:
How would that balance out when we talk about decreased costs to trade with the wider world?
I have a feeling the -£20bn would be quickly wiped out with a large +£# billion for better trade with the likes of the USA, China, India, Canada etc. etc.
What decreased costs?I have a feeling the -£20bn would be quickly wiped out with a large +£# billion for better trade with the likes of the USA, China, India, Canada etc. etc.
... that is what I was meaning to say. hahaApologies.
Three minutes googling Swiss Customs systems tells me that the Swiss have a very advanced electronic customs clearing system whereby each consignement, in this case " van load", has a set of electronically raised documentation that is there waiting in the system for the goods to arrive at the Swiss border.
It appears that the van driver does not avail himself of this electronic system.
So he has, it appears, lots of paper to show everyone ) five copies of invoices etc, and the Swiss, amongst others, are not expecting him, and have not pre cleared him.
I don't know what that makes him, but to use that example as evidence of modern customs procedures, as it also goes against the preferred Swiss method of customs clearance, does seem a bit " special".
Perhaps he ought to invest in a computer that can access the Swiss customs system as they have specifically designed it for this purpose, if only this was possible via some form of european or global computer network, to make his life a bit easier and give his business some longevity.
Of course I may be completely wrong about this as the Swiss national customs website may be inaccurate but somehow I think the Swiss have got it right.
Cheers,
Tony
It appears that the van driver does not avail himself of this electronic system.
So he has, it appears, lots of paper to show everyone ) five copies of invoices etc, and the Swiss, amongst others, are not expecting him, and have not pre cleared him.
I don't know what that makes him, but to use that example as evidence of modern customs procedures, as it also goes against the preferred Swiss method of customs clearance, does seem a bit " special".
Perhaps he ought to invest in a computer that can access the Swiss customs system as they have specifically designed it for this purpose, if only this was possible via some form of european or global computer network, to make his life a bit easier and give his business some longevity.
Of course I may be completely wrong about this as the Swiss national customs website may be inaccurate but somehow I think the Swiss have got it right.
Cheers,
Tony
Gloria Slap said:
What do you do for a living Tuna?
I deliver global scale IT systems.Gloria Slap said:
I’m genuinely confused as to how you can sweep away that video clip.
I'm genuinely confused by that clip. It's not clear why he's not using NCTS which I understood covered the sort of cross EU/EFTA transport that he's doing. He says he's working for Eurostar, yet he's the one carrying out manual form submission? Seems a bit odd to me, especially as NCTS is free to use.I'm also confused why anyone should think that if we changed the border processing between the UK and EU we'd just replicate the most inconvenient paper based system.
I'm confused why (as dave has pointed out) HMRC thinks that cross border trade with the EU would cost an order of magnitude more than trading with China.
I'm confused why the caller thinks that Brexit not happening yet has already 'stopped' just in time deliveries to Nissan and Cowley.
I'm confused why JIT on the scale of a car plant will apparently convert to paper based declarations on the day we leave.
In general, it was hardly a damning video. It was typical JoB stuff where someone who cried at the Referendum result (really?!) rang up to say nothing had changed his mind - and then justified it with disconnected anecdotes. None of it really bears scrutiny unless all you want to do is cry along with the caller.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
Point of order - the wider world doesn't pay those inflated import taxes, we do. Plus 80% of what we pay gets sent straight to Brussels to waste on moving offices...
Possibly (the lower tariffs not who pays them) but we will probably have to pay some on some EU imports..
Tony427 said:
I'm airfreighting stuff in from China. Its costing me $7 per kilo in total including all documentation/ customs declarations etc. I cannot see the freight company hiding £65 paperwork costs in the transport cost.
I can even get Chinese product in quicker than I can get product from Italy.
I reckon freight companies would sort all this paperwork kerfuffle very easily if left to get on with it.
BTW the WTO tariff I pay on my Chinese stuff is 2% and would be 1.5% on the products I import from Italy. A Brexit on WTO rules holds absolutely no fears for me.
Cheers,
Tony
I'm Excited by the possibilities new places to trade with old friends in the commonwealth back in the fold , Exporters seem bullish as do businesses I trade with like farmers and repair workshops . I can even get Chinese product in quicker than I can get product from Italy.
I reckon freight companies would sort all this paperwork kerfuffle very easily if left to get on with it.
BTW the WTO tariff I pay on my Chinese stuff is 2% and would be 1.5% on the products I import from Italy. A Brexit on WTO rules holds absolutely no fears for me.
Cheers,
Tony
I wonder is it fear of the unknown or some cushy little number the reason Remoaners are so keen to cling to the EU, very strange maybe like others have said it really is some form of Stockholm
syndrome ????
Edited by powerstroke on Friday 25th May 23:10
Simple, they have no bks/fear of "change"/easy life/listen to /Project Fear/ etc etc.
Our company is really pushing into RoW and about time. It has already given us a new life/direction/confidence/increased sales.
We have been banging our heads too long within a stagnant Eu market.
Medial Devices/Implants/Small-bone Fracture Fixation
ks/fear of "change"/easy life/listen to /Project Fear/ etc etc. Our company is really pushing into RoW and about time. It has already given us a new life/direction/confidence/increased sales.
We have been banging our heads too long within a stagnant Eu market.
Medial Devices/Implants/Small-bone Fracture Fixation
powerstroke said:
I would guess trade deals will dictate who we trade with so if europe levies high taxes on our goods and services we will add equivalent tariffs on their goods making them less competitive in the UK market so maybe a japanese car instead of a euro one a korean made washing machine not an Italian one ....
Which would be unlawful.The Dangerous Elk said:
Simple, they have no bks/fear of "change"/easy life/listen to /Project Fear/ etc etc.
Our company is really pushing into RoW and about time. It has already given us a new life/direction/confidence/increased sales.
We have been banging our heads too long within a stagnant Eu market.
Medial Devices/Implants/Small-bone Fracture Fixation
You have given an example of how your company was able to push into RoW, while we are an EU member. I wonder why they waited so long? ks/fear of "change"/easy life/listen to /Project Fear/ etc etc. Our company is really pushing into RoW and about time. It has already given us a new life/direction/confidence/increased sales.
We have been banging our heads too long within a stagnant Eu market.
Medial Devices/Implants/Small-bone Fracture Fixation
Will that change post Brexit?
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