How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 3)
Discussion
JagLover said:
There was blanket coverage in the media of HM R&C's claim that the new customs agreement would cost British business £20bn. Far less coverage of HM R&C admission that £6,5bn of this was costs to EU businesses not ours.
https://reaction.life/hmrc-admits-double-counting-...
No coverage either of course of the fact that independent Economists have tried to re-perform the calculation and arrived at a cost figure of £2bn.....
We had a pretty in depth conversation about this at the time. Both Sway and I pointed out that his numbers were utter guff, and anyone in the business would have known the same. https://reaction.life/hmrc-admits-double-counting-...
No coverage either of course of the fact that independent Economists have tried to re-perform the calculation and arrived at a cost figure of £2bn.....
Back of the envelope calculations suggest somewhere between £2bn and £5bn total cost of compliance, which while not exactly pocket change is much more acceptable. By taking the simple steps (such as consolidation) that Simon Clarke mentions in his original piece:
https://brexitcentral.com/getting-facts-straight-t...
The cost can be reduced further.
Again we see the cost to the EU swept away as if it doesn't matter/not our problem.
Increasing costs for EU companies to do business with us is not good news, as it increases the competitive gradient against us vs doing business within the EU zone. It is relevant to highlight that as part of the £20Bn costs.
Dave/Sway you did not debunk the HMRC or Aston Martin figures or prove they were guff:
We can chose to believe:
- Aston Martin CEO giving formal advice to parl committee, in area of his business, having no doubt taken careful advice of his team
- PH poster who admits he is not working in the automotive sector but claims to know the Aston Martin supply chain and its export duty implications better than above CEO who will have prepared carefully for that very question, but who is obviously taking rubbish
This kind of "what I reckon" is really no different to the 71% / 17% nonsense happening on the TR thread.
Increasing costs for EU companies to do business with us is not good news, as it increases the competitive gradient against us vs doing business within the EU zone. It is relevant to highlight that as part of the £20Bn costs.
Dave/Sway you did not debunk the HMRC or Aston Martin figures or prove they were guff:
We can chose to believe:
- Aston Martin CEO giving formal advice to parl committee, in area of his business, having no doubt taken careful advice of his team
- PH poster who admits he is not working in the automotive sector but claims to know the Aston Martin supply chain and its export duty implications better than above CEO who will have prepared carefully for that very question, but who is obviously taking rubbish
This kind of "what I reckon" is really no different to the 71% / 17% nonsense happening on the TR thread.
Gloria Slap said:
Again we see the cost to the EU swept away as if it doesn't matter/not our problem.
Increasing costs for EU companies to do business with us is not good news, as it increases the competitive gradient against us vs doing business within the EU zone. It is relevant to highlight that as part of the £20Bn costs.
Dave/Sway you did not debunk the HMRC or Aston Martin figures or prove they were guff:
We can chose to believe:
- Aston Martin CEO giving formal advice to parl committee, in area of his business, having no doubt taken careful advice of his team
- PH poster who admits he is not working in the automotive sector but claims to know the Aston Martin supply chain and its export duty implications better than above CEO who will have prepared carefully for that very question, but who is obviously taking rubbish
This kind of "what I reckon" is really no different to the 71% / 17% nonsense happening on the TR thread.
Unfortunately your £20 billion figure falls down at the first hurdle as following the utter rubbish the treasury predicted following "a vote to leave" it seems they are a bit reluctant to even publish the method, let alone the numbers and assumptions used to reach the figure. The consensus seems to be that they have used the same failed method. Why do you think that may be?Increasing costs for EU companies to do business with us is not good news, as it increases the competitive gradient against us vs doing business within the EU zone. It is relevant to highlight that as part of the £20Bn costs.
Dave/Sway you did not debunk the HMRC or Aston Martin figures or prove they were guff:
We can chose to believe:
- Aston Martin CEO giving formal advice to parl committee, in area of his business, having no doubt taken careful advice of his team
- PH poster who admits he is not working in the automotive sector but claims to know the Aston Martin supply chain and its export duty implications better than above CEO who will have prepared carefully for that very question, but who is obviously taking rubbish
This kind of "what I reckon" is really no different to the 71% / 17% nonsense happening on the TR thread.
Only you could still believe the figures have not been utterly debunked. Everyone else now accepts it as fact...
Gloria Slap said:
We can chose to believe:
Believing? I have looked at the numbers based on my own knowledge and experience and come to the conclusion that Jon Thompson of the HMRC's figures were wrong. That now seems to be the consensus opinion, including from Jon Thompson. Fun starts at around 11amhttps://goo.gl/FukRQB
We have £6.5bn which may or may not be true, £6.5bn which is not for UK businesses, and £7bn which was plucked out of the air.
Gloria Slap said:
Dave/Sway you did not debunk the HMRC or Aston Martin figures or prove they were guff:
Your memory needs fixing, you you need to cut back on the psychedelics. The global average for handling customs (you were given examples that were representative of the proposed system) is one tenth the figure HMRC suggested. The fact that the EU has now weighed in and come up with the same figure should drive that home. No-one came up with a justification of the HMRC figures and Dave, Sway, myself and a couple of others pointed to independent sources that all ran counter to the magic £20 bn figure.It's amazing that you're so determined to believe (and in your case it is believe, nothing based on facts - nothing anything stronger than the look in someone's eye or an unsubstantiated claim) that you'll even ignore evidence from the organisation you want us all to return to.
We clearly need to change all these people running out businesses and the people that represent their interests.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/13/cb...
"don't worry chaps they won't be crazy enough to vote to run down the car industry!"These remoaners are all biased, unlike the "bringers of truth" on PH, fully gen'd up on free trade, Liechtenstein precedents and the statistical realities of the prison population.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/13/cb...
CBI bloke said:
“There's zero evidence that independent trade deals will provide any economic benefit to the UK that's material,” Mr Drechsler said speaking on the Today programme. “It's a myth.”
Dave at JLR reassuring workers before the vote said:
"don't worry chaps they won't be crazy enough to vote to run down the car industry!"Edited by Gloria Slap on Saturday 16th June 16:06
Gloria Slap said:
The "independent sources" are not convincing at all, and in some cases clear brexit pools of disinformation.
One independent source was simply looking at how much it costs Switzerland (I think - not going to check back in the thread right now) to do something similar. That's not your made up numbers with absent justification. It's an actual verifiable fact. Check through the thread to find the details, but from memory it costs them one tenth per customs item that the HMRC estimate uses.One tenth. So a real world, verifiable example disagrees with an off the cuff estimation of an as yet unplanned system by an order of magnitude.
Where is the 'Brexit bias' in that? Is Switzerland running its customs operations at a huge loss over the last decade just to prove Brexiteers right?
I read that Tuna and did not find it convincing.
It takes one small stat and then extrapolates to say "look no problem". Or more to the point, "look the problem is not as big as big remoaning HRMC say"
It is a well worn trick now.
If you google "swiss customs" you'll find ample real world examples of swiss customs being a PITA and costly.
These are problems that just don't exist for EU trade.
It is easy to buy and compare things from e.g. .fr .de and .co.uk sites - Amazon and Ebay to name two. The savings can be interesting.
There is a reason why no one ever thinks "hmm perhaps it is easier/cheaper to get that thing from Switzerland".
You can chip away at the £20Bn, sure, and perhaps find an angle on the figure and say "ha!" I can disagree with this!
But suggestion you can dismiss the extra costs as a total fiction or tiny is not really facing the reality of the situation.
It takes one small stat and then extrapolates to say "look no problem". Or more to the point, "look the problem is not as big as big remoaning HRMC say"
It is a well worn trick now.
If you google "swiss customs" you'll find ample real world examples of swiss customs being a PITA and costly.
These are problems that just don't exist for EU trade.
It is easy to buy and compare things from e.g. .fr .de and .co.uk sites - Amazon and Ebay to name two. The savings can be interesting.
There is a reason why no one ever thinks "hmm perhaps it is easier/cheaper to get that thing from Switzerland".
You can chip away at the £20Bn, sure, and perhaps find an angle on the figure and say "ha!" I can disagree with this!
But suggestion you can dismiss the extra costs as a total fiction or tiny is not really facing the reality of the situation.
The reason no one ever says "wonder if it'll be cheaper from Switzerland" is because a f
king burger King kids meal costs £16!Nothing is cheap in CH. Whether domestically produced (in fact, especially if domestically produced) or imported.
The customs arrangements have bugger all to do with that. When the Swiss themselves estimate the costs of managing customs as being 0.1% of GDP, and HMRC are estimating it at twenty times that - surely even you would question why there's such a disparity?
Oh, and really not sure why you keep alluding to that prick Tommy Robinson.
Gloria Slap said:
I read that Tuna and did not find it convincing.
It takes one small stat and then extrapolates to say "look no problem". Or more to the point, "look the problem is not as big as big remoaning HRMC say"
It is a well worn trick now.
If you google "swiss customs" you'll find ample real world examples of swiss customs being a PITA and costly.
These are problems that just don't exist for EU trade.
It is easy to buy and compare things from e.g. .fr .de and .co.uk sites - Amazon and Ebay to name two. The savings can be interesting.
There is a reason why no one ever thinks "hmm perhaps it is easier/cheaper to get that thing from Switzerland".
You can chip away at the £20Bn, sure, and perhaps find an angle on the figure and say "ha!" I can disagree with this!
But suggestion you can dismiss the extra costs as a total fiction or tiny is not really facing the reality of the situation.
The most successful exporters in Europe are the Swiss, they must be doing something right. It takes one small stat and then extrapolates to say "look no problem". Or more to the point, "look the problem is not as big as big remoaning HRMC say"
It is a well worn trick now.
If you google "swiss customs" you'll find ample real world examples of swiss customs being a PITA and costly.
These are problems that just don't exist for EU trade.
It is easy to buy and compare things from e.g. .fr .de and .co.uk sites - Amazon and Ebay to name two. The savings can be interesting.
There is a reason why no one ever thinks "hmm perhaps it is easier/cheaper to get that thing from Switzerland".
You can chip away at the £20Bn, sure, and perhaps find an angle on the figure and say "ha!" I can disagree with this!
But suggestion you can dismiss the extra costs as a total fiction or tiny is not really facing the reality of the situation.
Dr Jekyll said:
The most successful exporters in Europe are the Swiss, they must be doing something right.
They do. Like every other country in the world, they are part of the local trading organization.Not to worry, NP&E is chocka with experts; from people who can save £30-£50Bn a year of NHS budget, people who know more about international research collaboration than Cox and Hawking to people who understand WTO better than Azevedo. And of course, the bloke who is privy to super-secret govt negotiations, but, for rather obvious reasons, can't say much more about it.
jjlynn27 said:
They do. Like every other country in the world, they are part of the local trading organization.
Not to worry, NP&E is chocka with experts; from people who can save £30-£50Bn a year of NHS budget, people who know more about international research collaboration than Cox and Hawking to people who understand WTO better than Azevedo. And of course, the bloke who is privy to super-secret govt negotiations, but, for rather obvious reasons, can't say much more about it.
And that's the similarity with the loons on the TR thread. Not to worry, NP&E is chocka with experts; from people who can save £30-£50Bn a year of NHS budget, people who know more about international research collaboration than Cox and Hawking to people who understand WTO better than Azevedo. And of course, the bloke who is privy to super-secret govt negotiations, but, for rather obvious reasons, can't say much more about it.
But they assume its about racism.
The reason for that also has parallels with the TR thread.
Gloria Slap said:
jjlynn27 said:
They do. Like every other country in the world, they are part of the local trading organization.
Not to worry, NP&E is chocka with experts; from people who can save £30-£50Bn a year of NHS budget, people who know more about international research collaboration than Cox and Hawking to people who understand WTO better than Azevedo. And of course, the bloke who is privy to super-secret govt negotiations, but, for rather obvious reasons, can't say much more about it.
And that's the similarity with the loons on the TR thread. Not to worry, NP&E is chocka with experts; from people who can save £30-£50Bn a year of NHS budget, people who know more about international research collaboration than Cox and Hawking to people who understand WTO better than Azevedo. And of course, the bloke who is privy to super-secret govt negotiations, but, for rather obvious reasons, can't say much more about it.
But they assume its about racism.
The reason for that also has parallels with the TR thread.
Gloria Slap said:
And that's the similarity with the loons on the TR thread.
But they assume its about racism.
The reason for that also has parallels with the TR thread.
Remainers are the racists they only want white immigrants and want to hide inside the EU But they assume its about racism.
The reason for that also has parallels with the TR thread.
A trading block for whites ,
Leavers want to trade with the whole world and welcome all colours and creeds as long as they
have skills and want to contribute to our open for business UK ..
Gloria Slap said:
If you google "swiss customs" you'll find ample real world examples of swiss customs being a PITA and costly.
These are problems that just don't exist for EU trade.
It is easy to buy and compare things from e.g. .fr .de and .co.uk sites - Amazon and Ebay to name two. The savings can be interesting.
There is a reason why no one ever thinks "hmm perhaps it is easier/cheaper to get that thing from Switzerland".
These are problems that just don't exist for EU trade.
It is easy to buy and compare things from e.g. .fr .de and .co.uk sites - Amazon and Ebay to name two. The savings can be interesting.
There is a reason why no one ever thinks "hmm perhaps it is easier/cheaper to get that thing from Switzerland".
Wikipedia said:
The economy of Switzerland is one of the world's most advanced economies. The service sector has come to play a significant economic role, particularly the Swiss banking industry and tourism. The economy of Switzerland ranks first in the world in the 2015 Global Innovation Index and the 2017 Global Competitiveness Report. According to United Nations data for 2016, Switzerland is the third richest landlocked country in the world after Liechtenstein and Luxembourg, and together with Norway the only two countries in the world with a GDP per capita above US$70,000 that are neither island nations nor ministates.
Yeah, screw Switzerland! We don't want to be like them. We want to be like Greece! They have no tariff barriers and freedom of movement with the EU, unlike those idiot Swittish people, and look what it's done for them!Every single time you put EU membership above all other factors in what makes a country successful, you weaken your own case. There are good reasons for EU membership, but they don't override all else.
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