How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 3)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 3)

TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED
Author
Discussion

confused_buyer

6,619 posts

181 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Looks like a deal has been done. Now the arguments can start as to who got the best deal.

Difficult to really be sure - a quick read implies the Government haven't given away much so maybe Grieve wasn't confident he really had the numbers. Not all the "rebels" seem to have been bought off by it but without Grieve they won't have the numbers.

This clearly isn't the amendment Grieve thought he had agreed last week and manages to wrap the whole thing up in a load of difficult to interpret Speakers privilege they can argue about for months. Not sure he has really achieved much in the end and by the sound of it other MPs think the same.

Ridgemont

6,570 posts

131 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
confused_buyer said:
Looks like a deal has been done. Now the arguments can start as to who got the best deal.

Difficult to really be sure - a quick read implies the Government haven't given away much so maybe Grieve wasn't confident he really had the numbers. Not all the "rebels" seem to have been bought off by it but without Grieve they won't have the numbers.

This clearly isn't the amendment Grieve thought he had agreed last week and manages to wrap the whole thing up in a load of difficult to interpret Speakers privilege they can argue about for months. Not sure he has really achieved much in the end and by the sound of it other MPs think the same.
Yep. Division now. Labour miffed.



confused_buyer

6,619 posts

181 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Ridgemont said:
Yep. Division now. Labour miffed.
It's great isn't it - they're voting on Grieve's amendment he himself isn't voting for (OK I know technically it came from the Lords).

Will be interesting to see how many Tories vote for it. Majority last time was 26 IIRC.

Ridgemont

6,570 posts

131 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
confused_buyer said:
Ridgemont said:
Yep. Division now. Labour miffed.
It's great isn't it - they're voting on Grieve's amendment he himself isn't voting for (OK I know technically it came from the Lords).

Will be interesting to see how many Tories vote for it. Majority last time was 26 IIRC.


303 to 319. So 5 jumped ship.

Trying to puzzle out where this leaves us: so Bercow will decide if there is to be a meaningful vote when the time comes.

Well I guess can kicking has been achieved. I guess the negotiations rumble on without the explicit threat that parliament can instruct a wholesale renegotiation.

p1stonhead

25,545 posts

167 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Ridgemont said:
confused_buyer said:
Ridgemont said:
Yep. Division now. Labour miffed.
It's great isn't it - they're voting on Grieve's amendment he himself isn't voting for (OK I know technically it came from the Lords).

Will be interesting to see how many Tories vote for it. Majority last time was 26 IIRC.


303 to 319. So 5 jumped ship.

Trying to puzzle out where this leaves us: so Bercow will decide if there is to be a meaningful vote when the time comes.

Well I guess can kicking has been achieved. I guess the negotiations rumble on without the explicit threat that parliament can instruct a wholesale renegotiation.
If you were the EU though wouldn’t you be thinking ‘how do we know this whole deal isn’t going to get voted down?’ ‘You don’t even know if your own side is going to vote on it or not’

It’s laughable from a negotiation standpoint

Sway

26,275 posts

194 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
If you were the EU though wouldn’t you be thinking ‘how do we know this whole deal isn’t going to get voted down?’ ‘You don’t even know if your own side is going to vote on it or not’

It’s laughable from a negotiation standpoint
To be fair - that's the default position for anyone negotiating with the EU... See CETA (and pretty much every other negotiation the EU has ever engaged in).

p1stonhead

25,545 posts

167 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Who would have guessed that Bercow would have ended up the most powerful man in the country laugh

Ridgemont

6,570 posts

131 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
_Sorted_ said:
Difficult to see how this is a win. Key decision, if it comes to it, now in hands of someone whose bumper sticker is pro EU?

Can someone please explain how this is good news and moves the negotiations forward positively for UK PLC?
It postpones more pain till Dec>Feb that’s all. It appears to be a tactic of this government, but then it’s hardly a surprise given she shot her authority to pieces last June and has largely been reduced to living hand to mouth through each crisis.

Vanden Saab

14,081 posts

74 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
_Sorted_ said:
Difficult to see how this is a win. Key decision, if it comes to it, now in hands of someone whose bumper sticker is pro EU?

Can someone please explain how this is good news and moves the negotiations forward positively for UK PLC?
Once the bill passes through the Lords and becomes law expect Bercow to come under intense pressure to stand down due to recent gaffs and no doubt others as yet unreported, it may explain why JRM has been so supportive of the amendment bearing in mind he is 2nd favorite to replace him....

confused_buyer

6,619 posts

181 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Of course unless they all get in a strop and negotiations break down and remain broken in early 2019 none of it will matter anyway.

On a historical point a bill to abolish the European Communities Act becoming law is significant but I suspect there are battles to come on the Customs Bill in particular.

Edited by confused_buyer on Wednesday 20th June 17:53

Burwood

18,709 posts

246 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
It will all get done eventually even if it’s death by a thousand cuts. Roll on 2019

Vanden Saab

14,081 posts

74 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Who was it who claimed to have had luncheon with the Lords and said they would never pass the Brexit bill? Even claiming they would see the house of lords abolished first? Just another successful stage completed that we have been told by the people who support remain would not happen. Just like all their other predictions both before and after the referendum have been wrong. Looking forward to seeing the end result of the successful negotiations now everything else is sorted.

p1stonhead

25,545 posts

167 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Vanden Saab said:
Who was it who claimed to have had luncheon with the Lords and said they would never pass the Brexit bill? Even claiming they would see the house of lords abolished first? Just another successful stage completed that we have been told by the people who support remain would not happen. Just like all their other predictions both before and after the referendum have been wrong. Looking forward to seeing the end result of the successful negotiations now everything else is sorted.
You honestly think after the shambles of the last two years and with the same people in charge, this is possible?

Gloria Slap

8,964 posts

206 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Burwood said:
It will all get done eventually even if it’s death by a thousand cuts. Roll on 2019
Sounds agonising - a ringing endorsement of brexit - akin to death.



Burwood

18,709 posts

246 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Gloria Slap said:
Burwood said:
It will all get done eventually even if it’s death by a thousand cuts. Roll on 2019
Sounds agonising - a ringing endorsement of brexit - akin to death.
It’s happening whether you or anyone else likes it or not. My reference was more analogous dealing with the EU

Vanden Saab

14,081 posts

74 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
Vanden Saab said:
Who was it who claimed to have had luncheon with the Lords and said they would never pass the Brexit bill? Even claiming they would see the house of lords abolished first? Just another successful stage completed that we have been told by the people who support remain would not happen. Just like all their other predictions both before and after the referendum have been wrong. Looking forward to seeing the end result of the successful negotiations now everything else is sorted.
You honestly think after the shambles of the last two years and with the same people in charge, this is possible?
One mans shambles ... It all seems to be going to plan as far as I can see. 5 months to dot the I's and cross the t's, after all around 80% is agreed already. Not a bad result so far unless you listen to the naysayers who will no doubt be along in a minute to tell us all what an omnishambles it all is.

Burwood

18,709 posts

246 months

Wednesday 20th June 2018
quotequote all
Vanden Saab said:
p1stonhead said:
Vanden Saab said:
Who was it who claimed to have had luncheon with the Lords and said they would never pass the Brexit bill? Even claiming they would see the house of lords abolished first? Just another successful stage completed that we have been told by the people who support remain would not happen. Just like all their other predictions both before and after the referendum have been wrong. Looking forward to seeing the end result of the successful negotiations now everything else is sorted.
You honestly think after the shambles of the last two years and with the same people in charge, this is possible?
One mans shambles ... It all seems to be going to plan as far as I can see. 5 months to dot the I's and cross the t's, after all around 80% is agreed already. Not a bad result so far unless you listen to the naysayers who will no doubt be along in a minute to tell us all what an omnishambles it all is.
It’s a relatively good result. One must remember that it’s the EUs job to make sure we have a tough time of it. I’m not sure who could do better. Lib Dem, labour. Add it to death and taxes. It’s happening.

p1stonhead

25,545 posts

167 months

Thursday 21st June 2018
quotequote all
Vanden Saab said:
p1stonhead said:
Vanden Saab said:
Who was it who claimed to have had luncheon with the Lords and said they would never pass the Brexit bill? Even claiming they would see the house of lords abolished first? Just another successful stage completed that we have been told by the people who support remain would not happen. Just like all their other predictions both before and after the referendum have been wrong. Looking forward to seeing the end result of the successful negotiations now everything else is sorted.
You honestly think after the shambles of the last two years and with the same people in charge, this is possible?
One mans shambles ... It all seems to be going to plan as far as I can see. 5 months to dot the I's and cross the t's, after all around 80% is agreed already. Not a bad result so far unless you listen to the naysayers who will no doubt be along in a minute to tell us all what an omnishambles it all is.
80% is agreed already?

What is agreed? I was under the impression absolutely nothing is.

Burwood

18,709 posts

246 months

Thursday 21st June 2018
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
Vanden Saab said:
p1stonhead said:
Vanden Saab said:
Who was it who claimed to have had luncheon with the Lords and said they would never pass the Brexit bill? Even claiming they would see the house of lords abolished first? Just another successful stage completed that we have been told by the people who support remain would not happen. Just like all their other predictions both before and after the referendum have been wrong. Looking forward to seeing the end result of the successful negotiations now everything else is sorted.
You honestly think after the shambles of the last two years and with the same people in charge, this is possible?
One mans shambles ... It all seems to be going to plan as far as I can see. 5 months to dot the I's and cross the t's, after all around 80% is agreed already. Not a bad result so far unless you listen to the naysayers who will no doubt be along in a minute to tell us all what an omnishambles it all is.
80% is agreed already?

What is agreed?
That we’re leaving.

Ridgemont

6,570 posts

131 months

Thursday 21st June 2018
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
Vanden Saab said:
p1stonhead said:
Vanden Saab said:
Who was it who claimed to have had luncheon with the Lords and said they would never pass the Brexit bill? Even claiming they would see the house of lords abolished first? Just another successful stage completed that we have been told by the people who support remain would not happen. Just like all their other predictions both before and after the referendum have been wrong. Looking forward to seeing the end result of the successful negotiations now everything else is sorted.
You honestly think after the shambles of the last two years and with the same people in charge, this is possible?
One mans shambles ... It all seems to be going to plan as far as I can see. 5 months to dot the I's and cross the t's, after all around 80% is agreed already. Not a bad result so far unless you listen to the naysayers who will no doubt be along in a minute to tell us all what an omnishambles it all is.
80% is agreed already?

What is agreed? I was under the impression absolutely nothing is.
Well 75% was agreed back in March.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/19/u...

Of course there is the small problemette that the remaining 25% is really ‘Ireland’ but glass 3/4 full and all that...
TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED