How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 3)

[anonymous-user]

Garvin said:

It appears that Remainers are getting disappointed that progress is being made, progress they say is not really Brexit - you would be forgiven in thinking that they should be happy at such a prospect!

Would that be Farage and Rees Mogg

[Smollet]

wc98 said:

Vanden Saab said:

Personally I think our government and their negotiators are playing a blinder, yes, I realise this is a not a popular view but look at what has happened. At every stage they have given just enough away to let the remaniacs call it "brexit lite" and not totally lose the plot over a possible "cliff edge". At the same time there is enough capitulation from the EU to stop the Brextremists from claiming victory or throwing their toys out of the pram. All the time the vast majority in the middle on both sides are almost completely happy with how it is going.
They are it seems achieving the impossible on many different levels....long may it continue...

that sums it up for me. in public scottish fishermen are making out they are not happy, in private they have an inkling what is on the table for when we leave and are very happy. they will still moan even then though, that's what fishermen do best

+1.

[ATG]

Pass the bong

[confused_buyer]

As far as I can work out with the fishing issue, several MPs who think we should stay in the EU and follow the EU fishing quotas for the next 50+ years are up in arms that we are following them for an extra 9 months longer than expected.

[chrispmartha]

Garvin said:

It appears that Remainers are getting disappointed that progress is being made, progress they say is not really Brexit - you would be forgiven in thinking that they should be happy at such a prospect!

[ElectricSoup]

Smollet said:

wc98 said:

Vanden Saab said:

Personally I think our government and their negotiators are playing a blinder, yes, I realise this is a not a popular view but look at what has happened. At every stage they have given just enough away to let the remaniacs call it "brexit lite" and not totally lose the plot over a possible "cliff edge". At the same time there is enough capitulation from the EU to stop the Brextremists from claiming victory or throwing their toys out of the pram. All the time the vast majority in the middle on both sides are almost completely happy with how it is going.
They are it seems achieving the impossible on many different levels....long may it continue...

that sums it up for me. in public scottish fishermen are making out they are not happy, in private they have an inkling what is on the table for when we leave and are very happy. they will still moan even then though, that's what fishermen do best

+1.

-1.

So you all voted for brexit existing in name only? You want out just to be out, even if nothing changes other than we have elected to remove our voice in the EU? That's what you voted for? The Norway position at best? What a pointless waste of time, effort, heartache and money. Actually it's worse than that, it's self-harm on a colossal scale for no gain. The trade deal which the genius Fox will now negotiate will take years, and will amount to less than the loss of trade we will suffer with the EU. For those who will scream "prove it", the government's own analyses state this. Why are some of you saying this is a big win? Where is the victory?

[confused_buyer]

ElectricSoup said:

-1.

So you all voted for brexit existing in name only? You want out just to be out, even if nothing changes other than we have elected to remove our voice in the EU? That's what you voted for? The Norway position at best? What a pointless waste of time, effort, heartache and money. Actually it's worse than that, it's self-harm on a colossal scale for no gain. The trade deal which the genius Fox will now negotiate will take years, and will amount to less than the loss of trade we will suffer with the EU. For those who will scream "prove it", the government's own analyses state this. Why are some of you saying this is a big win? Where is the victory?

So, you're advocating a much "harder" Brexit with maybe a no deal scenario? I can't work out exactly what you are arguing for,

[anonymous-user]

confused_buyer said:

So, you're advocating a much "harder" Brexit with maybe a no deal scenario? I can't work out exactly what you are arguing for,

I think he is arguing that remaining in the EU is the best option.

Others would be happy with a cat food curry as long as it tastes of curry.

[ElectricSoup]

Ghibli said:

confused_buyer said:

So, you're advocating a much "harder" Brexit with maybe a no deal scenario? I can't work out exactly what you are arguing for,

I think he is arguing that remaining in the EU is the best option.

Others would be happy with a cat food curry as long as it tastes of curry.

+1.

[confused_buyer]

Ghibli said:

I think he is arguing that remaining in the EU is the best option.

OK, but on the basis that option isn't available then if we are going to leave we should go for a "hard" minimal relationship exit?

I usually presume that those who want to Remain are generally on the preference of a "soft" Brexit remaining as close as possible to the Eu - maybe the "Norway" EEA/EFTA option but in many cases I assume that isn't so as whenever there is some sort of deal or agreement where the UK stays in or close to a EU structure or policy there seems to be massive complaints from those who wish to Remain. Logically, I would expect them to welcome it.

On the other hand, I do recognise that the view "I want to Remain but if we must leave then we should leave big time and not a half way house" is a valid argument and I assume what some here are arguing from their posts.

[ElectricSoup]

confused_buyer said:

Ghibli said:

I think he is arguing that remaining in the EU is the best option.

OK, but on the basis that option isn't available then if we are going to leave we should go for a "hard" minimal relationship exit?

I usually presume that those who want to Remain are generally on the preference of a "soft" Brexit remaining as close as possible to the Eu - maybe the "Norway" EEA/EFTA option but in many cases I assume that isn't so as whenever there is some sort of deal or agreement where the UK stays in or close to a EU structure or policy there seems to be massive complaints from those who wish to Remain. Logically, I would expect them to welcome it.

On the other hand, I do recognise that the view "I want to Remain but if we must leave then we should leave big time and not a half way house" is a valid argument and I assume what some here are arguing from their posts.

Yes, if we leave, Norway is the least damaging option. But the point is it's still damaging. I'm not entirely convinced that this was clear and proven in 2016, 2/3 years later people might want to reconsider in light of this.

On the other point, I don't think anyone can draw the conclusion that the referendum would have been won on the basis of a hard brexit either, given the number of people who voted leave, favouring an SM&CU remaining option. So in either scenario, democratically allowing people to reconsider seems the best option.

This is the nub of the problem with the binary referendum. Whatever the eventual detailed outcome, it is unlikely that a majority will be happy with it. A final say for all should be an option.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Please could someone explain how the UK paying 12 billion pounds a year to run a 71 billion pounds a year trade deficit with the EU is a good deal for the UK?

[ElectricSoup]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Please could someone explain how the UK paying 12 billion pounds a year to run a 71 billion pounds a year trade deficit with the EU is a good deal for the UK?

As soon as you explain how swapping some of our EU trade for less trade with the RoW, as per government analyses, improves the situation.

[SpeckledJim]

ElectricSoup said:

-1.

So you all voted for brexit existing in name only? You want out just to be out, even if nothing changes other than we have elected to remove our voice in the EU? That's what you voted for? The Norway position at best? What a pointless waste of time, effort, heartache and money. Actually it's worse than that, it's self-harm on a colossal scale for no gain. The trade deal which the genius Fox will now negotiate will take years, and will amount to less than the loss of trade we will suffer with the EU. For those who will scream "prove it", the government's own analyses state this. Why are some of you saying this is a big win? Where is the victory?

The EU is quite big, but shrinking. Our trade with them is, similarly, quite big but shrinking.

The rest of the world is much bigger, and growing. Our trade with them is much bigger, and growing.

There's the victory. The rest of the Brexit issues are, relatively, garnish.

[Pan Pan Pan]

ElectricSoup said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Please could someone explain how the UK paying 12 billion pounds a year to run a 71 billion pounds a year trade deficit with the EU is a good deal for the UK?

As soon as you explain how swapping some of our EU trade for less trade with the RoW, as per government analyses, improves the situation.

Nope I asked first, so answer my question first (but I guess the truth is, you have no answer to the question) the UK has been paying the EU billions of pounds a year to a run a billions of pounds a year trade deficit with the EU for almost the entire time it has been a member.
Come back when you can explain how this has somehow been a good deal for the UK and its businesses. P.s I wont be holding my breath.
Quite how you know for certain we will have less trade with the RoW is fascinating especially when before the UK joined the EU it was one of the greatest nations at the job of trading with the RoW. Can you explain why this cannot happen again?

[ElectricSoup]

Pan Pan Pan said:

ElectricSoup said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Please could someone explain how the UK paying 12 billion pounds a year to run a 71 billion pounds a year trade deficit with the EU is a good deal for the UK?

As soon as you explain how swapping some of our EU trade for less trade with the RoW, as per government analyses, improves the situation.

Nope I asked first, so answer my question first (but I guess the truth is, you have no answer to the question) the UK has been paying the EU billions of pounds a year to a run a billions of pounds a year trade deficit with the EU for almost the entire time it has been a member.
Come back when you can explain how this has somehow been a good deal for the UK and its businesses. P.s I wont be holding my breath.
Quite how you know for certain we will have less trade with the RoW is fascinating especially when before the UK joined the EU it was one of the greatest nations at the job of trading with the RoW. Can you explain why this cannot happen again?

It is the best deal available to us at the moment. That is how it's a good deal. Making us worse off for the sake of it isn't a better deal.

[SpeckledJim]

ElectricSoup said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Please could someone explain how the UK paying 12 billion pounds a year to run a 71 billion pounds a year trade deficit with the EU is a good deal for the UK?

As soon as you explain how swapping some of our EU trade for less trade with the RoW, as per government analyses, improves the situation.

Is this one of the common incorrect analyses, or one of the more rare and exciting correct analyses? I gather they are notoriously difficult to sex?

[ElectricSoup]

SpeckledJim said:

ElectricSoup said:

-1.

So you all voted for brexit existing in name only? You want out just to be out, even if nothing changes other than we have elected to remove our voice in the EU? That's what you voted for? The Norway position at best? What a pointless waste of time, effort, heartache and money. Actually it's worse than that, it's self-harm on a colossal scale for no gain. The trade deal which the genius Fox will now negotiate will take years, and will amount to less than the loss of trade we will suffer with the EU. For those who will scream "prove it", the government's own analyses state this. Why are some of you saying this is a big win? Where is the victory?

The EU is quite big, but shrinking. Our trade with them is, similarly, quite big but shrinking.

The rest of the world is much bigger, and growing. Our trade with them is much bigger, and growing.

There's the victory. The rest of the Brexit issues are, relatively, garnish.

It's just an illusion. Bap bap shoowop.

[anonymous-user]

ElectricSoup said:

It is the best deal available to us at the moment. That is how it's a good deal. Making us worse off for the sake of it isn't a better deal.

But when we leave the EU our trade deficit will disappear and the NHS will get £350m a week.

I'm sure that is what some people think ^

[Pan Pan Pan]

ElectricSoup said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

ElectricSoup said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Please could someone explain how the UK paying 12 billion pounds a year to run a 71 billion pounds a year trade deficit with the EU is a good deal for the UK?

As soon as you explain how swapping some of our EU trade for less trade with the RoW, as per government analyses, improves the situation.

Nope I asked first, so answer my question first (but I guess the truth is, you have no answer to the question) the UK has been paying the EU billions of pounds a year to a run a billions of pounds a year trade deficit with the EU for almost the entire time it has been a member.
Come back when you can explain how this has somehow been a good deal for the UK and its businesses. P.s I wont be holding my breath.
Quite how you know for certain we will have less trade with the RoW is fascinating especially when before the UK joined the EU it was one of the greatest nations at the job of trading with the RoW. Can you explain why this cannot happen again?

It is the best deal available to us at the moment. That is how it's a good deal. Making us worse off for the sake of it isn't a better deal.

That may well be the case in the short term, but then no one knew what they were voting for in 1975 when the UK voted to remain in the EEC, yet they still went ahead and did it, why is now different? especially when we know for certain that being in the EU, is to pay 12 billion pounds a year to run a 71 billion pounds a year trade deficit. The RoW market is growing, the EU market is shrinking, especially made worse by all the basket case economies it has to support.