How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 3)
Discussion
David Davis wants the negotiation process to start again.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/b...
Shambles and more shambles.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/b...
Shambles and more shambles.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Does Raab not realise that we can't do our own trade deals while being a member of the EU?Anyway, it sounds like he is just repeating what Davis said about the 39b. The real question is as to whether the EU are "bluffing"
Ghibli said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Does Raab not realise that we can't do our own trade deals while being a member of the EU?Anyway, it sounds like he is just repeating what Davis said about the 39b. The real question is as to whether the EU are "bluffing"
The UK wants/needs a half useful trade deal with the EU, that money "buys" that. No deal, no payment. Its simple reality.
Until everyone round the table stops being utter plonkers and talks from a position of reality bugger all will actually get done. HMG needs to stop being an incoherent shower of donkey poop and the EU need to stop trying to demand the moon on a stick. If you are faced with an incoherent shower of donkey poop on the other side of the table though - are you really going to suddenly start going soft touch and easy? Of course you aren't!
DeejRC said:
Well of course he has to say it. For all the EU talk of the Irish "backstop" position, that has to be the UK's ultimate "backstop" position.
The UK wants/needs a half useful trade deal with the EU, that money "buys" that. No deal, no payment. Its simple reality.
Look at it this way.The UK wants/needs a half useful trade deal with the EU, that money "buys" that. No deal, no payment. Its simple reality.
You lease a car.
After a couple of years you decide you don't want to use the car anymore. So you notify the lease company of that fact. They notify you that's fine but you owe them £x based on the financial commitment you made with them.
As you aren't ready to purchase your own car yet, you tell them that you will pay what you owe if they agree to reinstate the lease for a further 21 months which you will also pay the contractual rate for. They agree.
You then have a think about your transport needs after the 21 months is up, so you propose to the lease company that you have decided you will now only pay what you owe, and the additional 21 months lease if they agree to let you use some of the car for free post the 21 months.
What do you think the answer would be?
PurpleMoonlight said:
That's good.
Reality is we owe it, so threatening not to pay is ridiculous and weakens our position.
Indeed and it would be an extremely stupid move for a Country seeking favourable Agreements with other Nations around the World as you correctly allude to. Reality is we owe it, so threatening not to pay is ridiculous and weakens our position.
In the grand scheme of things, while 39B is a very large sum for any individual, it is relatively small for a Tier 1 economy to absorb as the price to pay to demonstrate that it is a country of its word. In terms of wanting a favourable deal with the EU, it is absolutely essential to show you will not renege on any aspects of any Agreement. In terms of 'No Deal' with the EU, it is still very important for the R.O.W. to see that the UK is a Country that will not abandon it's agreed responsibilities and lie.
The threat of non-payment is Political posturing by certain individuals on the Leave side aimed directly at those they consider easily led by silly soundbites that appeal to a particular mindset. It is 'Trumpism', pure and simple. Tell a certain demographic of the Electorate what you know they will be impressed by in their ignorance and keep their support onboard. It is a tactic Trump has proven can be very successful - reality doesn't have to feature at all.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Dr Jekyll said:
What about the EU assets we've contributed to? To they owe us?
I read that it's been allowed for.
As a net contributor it's not easy to look around and see tangible benefits from our EU membership fee, it can be very different for those who are paid to stay in albeit not quite utopia (amazing!).
Do we each get a chunk of basically unused tarmac or free stays in the Spanish ghost towns the new roads lead to? As punishment for leaving.
If EU largesse (including our share of the money) didn't help to inflate the bubble behind this situation in any way, it's odd that the money still sloshing around post-crash hasn't been directed to solving such a visibly embarrassing situation more quickly. Then again, the EU has a dire track record of 'helping' member states in need. One size fits all except for those that don't fit. Greece, superb help; Cyprus bail-in, hey those varmint Ruskies deserved it; ...look, over there, a monkey!
Coolbanana said:
Indeed and it would be an extremely stupid move for a Country seeking favourable Agreements with other Nations around the World as you correctly allude to.
In the grand scheme of things, while 39B is a very large sum for any individual, it is relatively small for a Tier 1 economy to absorb as the price to pay to demonstrate that it is a country of its word. In terms of wanting a favourable deal with the EU, it is absolutely essential to show you will not renege on any aspects of any Agreement. In terms of 'No Deal' with the EU, it is still very important for the R.O.W. to see that the UK is a Country that will not abandon it's agreed responsibilities and lie.
The threat of non-payment is Political posturing by certain individuals on the Leave side aimed directly at those they consider easily led by silly soundbites that appeal to a particular mindset. It is 'Trumpism', pure and simple. Tell a certain demographic of the Electorate what you know they will be impressed by in their ignorance and keep their support onboard. It is a tactic Trump has proven can be very successful - reality doesn't have to feature at all.
This too.In the grand scheme of things, while 39B is a very large sum for any individual, it is relatively small for a Tier 1 economy to absorb as the price to pay to demonstrate that it is a country of its word. In terms of wanting a favourable deal with the EU, it is absolutely essential to show you will not renege on any aspects of any Agreement. In terms of 'No Deal' with the EU, it is still very important for the R.O.W. to see that the UK is a Country that will not abandon it's agreed responsibilities and lie.
The threat of non-payment is Political posturing by certain individuals on the Leave side aimed directly at those they consider easily led by silly soundbites that appeal to a particular mindset. It is 'Trumpism', pure and simple. Tell a certain demographic of the Electorate what you know they will be impressed by in their ignorance and keep their support onboard. It is a tactic Trump has proven can be very successful - reality doesn't have to feature at all.
The UK should be thinking of the bigger picture.
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