Is this the last tory government

[AJL308]

James_B said:

I think that Inam like most people now when I say that no political party seems to want my vote. The conservatives have hugely ramped upmmy taxes and reduced any potential benefits and Labour are left shouting that they would do even more.

The only rational response is to shift a lot of assets to somewhere else, to buy a home with great security, and to accept the fact that the social contract looks less likely to deliver for people like me and my children and to work as hard as possible to still come out ahead.

I don't have a huge amount to stash but if it looked even remotely likely that we were in line for a Labour government under Corbyn I'd seriously look at moving what little I had abroad - Cayman's, or similar. Anything left in UK would be taxed away to nothing in very short order.

[ClaphamGT3]

crofty1984 said:

I have a low opinion of Blair, because he's a , but he did exactly the right thing in trying to appeal to "Mondeo Man" - the aspiring working/middle classes.

I agree with whoever started the Politically Homeless thread. 10 years ago, I'd have said the two main parties were so desperate for the middle ground there was no difference between them, leading to voter apathy. Now they've gone to the other extreme, appealing only to either octogenarian back in my dayers or hairy bush tofu gobblers.

There is some truth in this. In the history of modern politics, the party that appeals to the centre ground beats the opposition - Atlee, MacMillan, Wilson, Thatcher and Blair. Even Major managed to secure The biggest popular vote ever in '92. When the centrists come up against extremists - Thatcher in '83 & '87, Blair in '97 and '01 they win by landslides. Thus, the political orthodoxy is to scramble for the middle ground in the manner of Cameron & Brown/Milliband.

What is currently blindsiding all political experts is the rise of Momentum. All analysis says that the pragmatic, centrist May Tory party should obliterate Momentum labour, hence the 2016 Tory election hubris, and yet they can't. Neither can Labour get close to electoral victory. This can only suggest that neither party is actually - whatever it thinks - talking to the electoral centre ground. I suspect that May thought that the centreground wanted strong messages on Brexit and on social equity but that bombed at the 2016 election. Similarly, labour's message of social equity and 'a fairer society' didn't land a killer blow in 2016.

The answer seems to lie in the need for one or both parties to reconnect with the political centre, recognising that, whatever the rhetoric and chattering, Brexit and social equity are side shows and not the main issue

[Frank7]

majordad said:

Corbyn will never , ever be PM. IMHO !

From your lips to God’s ears, I fervently pray.
My wife and I have voted Lib-Dem, or Tory
all our lives, just to keep Labour out.

[ClaphamGT3]

gothatway said:

jonnyb said:

If remain had won by a similar margin it would have been a vote for the status quo, no closer ties, may be even taking a step back from more contentious issues like the EU arrest warrant.
It certainly would not have been a mandate to join the euro or an endorsement of ever closer union. It would have been a statement of this far and no further.

In your dreams !! It would have been taken as an endorsement of the EU and all its plans, whatever it became in the future.

Even the most cursory research would tell you that Cameron predicated his decision to offer the in/out referendum on the poll predictions of a c. 60% remain vote that would allow him (a) to silence the Eurosceptics in the PCP with a "the people have spoken" argument and (b) to pursue a line with the EU that a mere 60% majority meant that the rest of the members should take the UKs reservations seriously.

[wc98]

ClaphamGT3 said:

There is some truth in this. In the history of modern politics, the party that appeals to the centre ground beats the opposition - Atlee, MacMillan, Wilson, Thatcher and Blair. Even Major managed to secure The biggest popular vote ever in '92. When the centrists come up against extremists - Thatcher in '83 & '87, Blair in '97 and '01 they win by landslides. Thus, the political orthodoxy is to scramble for the middle ground in the manner of Cameron & Brown/Milliband.

What is currently blindsiding all political experts is the rise of Momentum. All analysis says that the pragmatic, centrist May Tory party should obliterate Momentum labour, hence the 2016 Tory election hubris, and yet they can't. Neither can Labour get close to electoral victory. This can only suggest that neither party is actually - whatever it thinks - talking to the electoral centre ground. I suspect that May thought that the centreground wanted strong messages on Brexit and on social equity but that bombed at the 2016 election. Similarly, labour's message of social equity and 'a fairer society' didn't land a killer blow in 2016.

The answer seems to lie in the need for one or both parties to reconnect with the political centre, recognising that, whatever the rhetoric and chattering, Brexit and social equity are side shows and not the main issue

i think the main problem is the general voting public perception is the raison de'etre of politcians is to get elected. there is no vision, no plan to make any great changes or achieve anything. just get elected,get on the gravy train and ride it out. the time is ripe for a new party that has some vision and a plan. the worrying thing for me is a lot of people are so pissed off they might just vote for any vision or plan that deviates from the mundane mediocrity of modern times.

[easytiger123]

AJL308 said:

majordad said:

Corbyn will never , ever be PM. IMHO !

I hope you're right but I'm really not too sure on that. There have been too many upsets in politics over recent years to state anything with certainty.

The prospect of a hard Socialist government under Corbyn is too terrifying to contemplate, quite honestly. We'd be fked.

Hate to say it, but I suspect he will. What the Tories have utterly failed to recognise is that the middle class is shrinking, and the rate at which it's shrinking is only going to increase as technology starts to wipe out jobs in virtually every sector. More and more people are feeling disenfranchised and scared about their future. Their only weapon is that little X in the ballot box and they'll use it to give anyone who offers them hope (however false or illusory) the keys to number 10.

May is comfortably the worst PM of my lifetime and her legacy will be a Labour government as sure as Obama's legacy is Donald J Trump. Nobody is going to forgive the Tories for a long, long time and I write that as a lifelong Tory voter. They stand for nothing anymore except "we're not Labour". Nobody is buying that st.

[oyster]

powerstroke said:

Will May be the cancer that finishes off the tory party or will they dump her ... would the remain wets and their big business ,banker types rather keep her as their puppet in attempt to reverse brexit ???

You don't know much about the Tory party or it's history - that's pretty clear.

For hundreds of years, the Tory party has been very centrist, just where May and the remainers are now.

[JagLover]

Tuna said:

May's big problem is she started off making some big policy speeches that set out her house - Brexit means Brexit, red lines and so on.

Then she railroaded Davis (who out of loyalty/stupidity said nothing) making him look completely ineffective.

Finally she pulled off the most ridiculous smoke and daggers 'reveal' of a proposal that made it plain she'd consulted none of her own cabinet and was forcing a policy on them that had been concocted by civil servants (or if you're a conspiracy theorist, Merkel). It completely discards her red lines, Brexit doesn't mean anything, and the proposal is astonishing in it's unintended consequences.

She's made liars out of the whole party - the Brexiteers are useless and the Remainers are dishonest.

It wouldn't actually have mattered what sort of Brexit she came up with if she'd gained the consensus of the cabinet and stuck to her own conditions.

There are lots of policies that you could find difficult to accept, but still vote for the party overall. It's very hard to do that if you completely distrust them.

Yes as you say a matter of trust rather than policy as such. Same thing with the Lib Dems and tuition fees.

Anyhow none of us, whether we voted for leave or remain, knows the motivations of all on either side. In addition the Media commentators who tell us what the effect of various actions will be, and claim to have deep knowledge of the electorate, often have little exposure to ordinary people outside the M25 and are in any case are usually pushing a corporate viewpoint.

I am not so foolish either as to think the online reaction to various developments represents the whole picture. People spending their time posting about politics are by definition more politically engaged than the norm.

My own personal view is that if the Tories go for BINO then they will be out of power for a generation at least, regardless of who controls Labour. Also if another sufficiently well organised party were formed on the centre right they MIGHT be able to displace them and destroy the Tories entirely.

Edited by JagLover on Thursday 12th July 12:49

[vonuber]

Is 'remain wets' some new fetish I've not heard of, or people who don't own umbrellas?

[bloomen]

b2hbm said:

True. Anyone would think that the Remain voters didn't know what the options were, could it be possible that "they didn't know what they were voting for" ?

Since one of the most googled things in the country in the days after the vote was - what is the European Union.

Yup.

[djc206]

easytiger123 said:

Hate to say it, but I suspect he will. What the Tories have utterly failed to recognise is that the middle class is shrinking, and the rate at which it's shrinking is only going to increase as technology starts to wipe out jobs in virtually every sector. More and more people are feeling disenfranchised and scared about their future. Their only weapon is that little X in the ballot box and they'll use it to give anyone who offers them hope (however false or illusory) the keys to number 10.

May is comfortably the worst PM of my lifetime and her legacy will be a Labour government as sure as Obama's legacy is Donald J Trump. Nobody is going to forgive the Tories for a long, long time and I write that as a lifelong Tory voter. They stand for nothing anymore except "we're not Labour". Nobody is buying that st.

I agree with most of what you’ve written but I think the tories would be back within a decade. The way Corbyn has promised to spend money he will leave this country so debt ridden that one of the chaps from ‘Can’t pay we’ll take it away’ will be knocking on the door of No.11 within a few years and that’s when the Tories win their elections. It’s the same cycle over and over, we get promised the world, we get duped into debt, the debt collectors come calling, we vote Tory, we fk the poor over for a few years, we get fed up of declining services, we vote Labour. Rinse and repeat.

[JagLover]

bhstewie said:

The average person on the street probably doesn't know who Hammond is.

This place isn't representative of politics in general and whatever your views on Blair he won three elections pretty comfortably.

I'm not making an argument for him but I've watched a couple of interviews with him, I think the most recent was with Bloomberg, he's got baggage but he's very persuasive.

If he came back tomorrow and I was in the Conservative government today I'd be stting my pants.

Further to my own post while there are many unknowns in terms of the opinions of the electorate. There are many subjects where we do know the opinion of the electorate as they have already been asked.

Blair has a considerably lower approval rating than Corbyn. Only 21% of the electorate approve of him.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ton...

[oyster]

gothatway said:

jonnyb said:

If remain had won by a similar margin it would have been a vote for the status quo, no closer ties, may be even taking a step back from more contentious issues like the EU arrest warrant.
It certainly would not have been a mandate to join the euro or an endorsement of ever closer union. It would have been a statement of this far and no further.

In your dreams !! It would have been taken as an endorsement of the EU and all its plans, whatever it became in the future.

In the 2015 general election 80%+ of votes were cast for pro-EU parties, UKIP only polled 15%ish, yet they were bloody noisy for that 15%

[Henners]

The last one? No.

Are we likely to have some years of vague, weak, ineffective government regardless of the party? More than likely.

[Fittster]

bhstewie said:

Russian Troll Bot said:

If they ditch Corbyn and Momentum for someone more centre left, the Tories are screwed.

Pretty much how I see it.

However maligned he might be, if Tony Blair came back right now I suspect he'd walk it.

In Labour put a centerist as leader why don't you think they will lose support from the left. There's a lot of people on the left who think Blair wasn't radical enough and won't vote for a red tory.

[JagLover]

oyster said:

In the 2015 general election 80%+ of votes were cast for pro-EU parties, UKIP only polled 15%ish, yet they were bloody noisy for that 15%

With one of those "Pro-EU" parties having promised a referendum on membership.

[Rovinghawk]

jonnyb said:

Rovinghawk said:

jonnyb said:

600,001 and we wouldn’t even be taking about it right now, so I think very different would sum it up.

You make a fair point- a pity for you that you're talking about what didn't happen rather than what did.

?

You're talking about 'what if Remain won?'- they didn't.

[Fittster]

ClaphamGT3 said:

crofty1984 said:

I have a low opinion of Blair, because he's a , but he did exactly the right thing in trying to appeal to "Mondeo Man" - the aspiring working/middle classes.

I agree with whoever started the Politically Homeless thread. 10 years ago, I'd have said the two main parties were so desperate for the middle ground there was no difference between them, leading to voter apathy. Now they've gone to the other extreme, appealing only to either octogenarian back in my dayers or hairy bush tofu gobblers.

There is some truth in this. In the history of modern politics, the party that appeals to the centre ground beats the opposition - Atlee, MacMillan, Wilson, Thatcher and Blair. Even Major managed to secure The biggest popular vote ever in '92. When the centrists come up against extremists - Thatcher in '83 & '87, Blair in '97 and '01 they win by landslides. Thus, the political orthodoxy is to scramble for the middle ground in the manner of Cameron & Brown/Milliband.

What is currently blindsiding all political experts is the rise of Momentum. All analysis says that the pragmatic, centrist May Tory party should obliterate Momentum labour, hence the 2016 Tory election hubris, and yet they can't. Neither can Labour get close to electoral victory. This can only suggest that neither party is actually - whatever it thinks - talking to the electoral centre ground. I suspect that May thought that the centreground wanted strong messages on Brexit and on social equity but that bombed at the 2016 election. Similarly, labour's message of social equity and 'a fairer society' didn't land a killer blow in 2016.

The answer seems to lie in the need for one or both parties to reconnect with the political centre, recognising that, whatever the rhetoric and chattering, Brexit and social equity are side shows and not the main issue

The reason for the rise of UKIP, Tory Brexiters and Momentum is the utter failure of centrist politician for both Labour (Blair) and the Conservatives (Major and Cameron). Their economic policies at best lead to economic stagnation and insecurity for many people. Why would people want to return to that?

Are you expecting a new generation of centerist politicians to have more successful policies than there predecessors? They have never previously managed to come up with an ideological framework to base policies on. The Third Way? Now a fourth way?

Edited by Fittster on Thursday 12th July 13:10

[JagLover]

To bring in the latest polling data

UKpolling said:

Only 13% of people now think the Chequers Brexit deal would be good for Britain (down 1 since the pre-resignation poll at the weekend), 42% think it would not (up 9). 23% think it respects the referendum deal (down 4), 39% think it does not (up 10). Just 13% of people now think that the governemnt are handling the Brexit negotiations well, down from 18% at the weekend.

Lots of don't knows AT THE MOMENT though

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Tories still on 37% but then of course the small print of their proposed deal hasn't yet been revealed. Until the eventual deal is revealed I would probably be telling any pollster I would still vote Tory.

[Rovinghawk]

AJL308 said:

I don't have a huge amount to stash but if it looked even remotely likely that we were in line for a Labour government under Corbyn I'd seriously look at moving what little I had abroad - Cayman's, or similar. Anything left in UK would be taxed away to nothing in very short order.

Bear in mind that Labour have already stated that they have plans in place to prevent this; if you have to do it then do it very quickly, before they can pass laws to stop you doing what you want with your money.