Is this the last tory government
Discussion
bloomen said:
b2hbm said:
True. Anyone would think that the Remain voters didn't know what the options were, could it be possible that "they didn't know what they were voting for" ?
Since one of the most googled things in the country in the days after the vote was - what is the European Union. Yup.
JagLover said:
Further to my own post while there are many unknowns in terms of the opinions of the electorate. There are many subjects where we do know the opinion of the electorate as they have already been asked.
Blair has a considerably lower approval rating than Corbyn. Only 21% of the electorate approve of him.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ton...
Given the events of the last GE if I were Teresa May I'm not sure I'd risk my government off any poll.Blair has a considerably lower approval rating than Corbyn. Only 21% of the electorate approve of him.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ton...
Would you?
Fittster said:
b
hstewie said:
hstewie said:Russian Troll Bot said:
If they ditch Corbyn and Momentum for someone more centre left, the Tories are screwed.
Pretty much how I see it.However maligned he might be, if Tony Blair came back right now I suspect he'd walk it.
I think they'd gain more than they'd lose, but it's a guess, nothing more.
amusingduck said:
Source?
https://twitter.com/googletrends/status/746303118820937728?lang=enhttp://uk.businessinsider.com/what-is-the-eu-is-to...
I would not have expected anything less from the fine people of these isles.
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
600,001 and we wouldn’t even be taking about it right now, so I think very different would sum it up.
You make a fair point- a pity for you that you're talking about what didn't happen rather than what did.easytiger123 said:
What the Tories have utterly failed to recognise is that the middle class is shrinking, and the rate at which it's shrinking is only going to increase as technology starts to wipe out jobs in virtually every sector. More and more people are feeling disenfranchised and scared about their future.
A bloke with a really good hipster beard said"The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."
Are you proposing the Tories give up on Capitalism, recognizing it's flaws and embrace Marxism? If not how are the middle class supposed to be saved?
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
600,001 and we wouldn’t even be taking about it right now, so I think very different would sum it up.
You make a fair point- a pity for you that you're talking about what didn't happen rather than what did.Did either the Remain/Leave campaign present mandates prior to the referendum?
A simple yes/no to both questions will suffice
bloomen said:
amusingduck said:
Source?
https://twitter.com/googletrends/status/746303118820937728?lang=enhttp://uk.businessinsider.com/what-is-the-eu-is-to...
I would not have expected anything less from the fine people of these isles.
don'tbesilly said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
600,001 and we wouldn’t even be taking about it right now, so I think very different would sum it up.
You make a fair point- a pity for you that you're talking about what didn't happen rather than what did.Did either the Remain/Leave campaign present mandates prior to the referendum?
A simple yes/no to both questions will suffice
Life tends to be a little more complex than yes or no. It’s the inability to realise this that’s got us into this mess. Reducing complex questions down to binary answers isn’t the way forward, reality tends to intervene. Quite happy to have a discussion about the complexity of the issues though.
djc206 said:
I agree with most of what you’ve written but I think the tories would be back within a decade.
I think that's optimistic - unless the Tories get boundary reform sorted before they go. Even then I wouldn't put it past Corbyn/McDonnell to somehow jerrymander (jeremymander ?) subsequent votes.Fittster said:
A bloke with a really good hipster beard said
"The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."
Are you proposing the Tories give up on Capitalism, recognizing it's flaws and embrace Marxism? If not how are the middle class supposed to be saved?
That is a fair question Fittster"The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."
Are you proposing the Tories give up on Capitalism, recognizing it's flaws and embrace Marxism? If not how are the middle class supposed to be saved?
Ever since the advent of the industrial revolution there have always been jobs disrupted by new means of production while at the same time many more jobs were created elsewhere. The issue with ongoing automation is more with the scale and pace of change. This is combining in the UK context with falling home ownership rates due to a malfunctioning housing market, but also with a general suspicion of development (see the battles over Heathrow expansion).
There are millions in the working and lower middle classes who know they are only one redundancy away from potential penury. When May had different advisers her premiership was going to be targeting the JAMs to make their lives better.
As to what government can actually do without massive costs. For insecurity it could improve redundancy terms, increase the minimum wage and make benefits more general. For housing it can try and fix the broken market to improve affordability, my favourite proposal to do this a state land bank, but there are others.
We have talked on this thread about the centre ground of British politics. As far as I can see the centre ground is scared whether it will still have a well paid job in 5-10 years time and thinks their children will be worse off than they are. Meanwhile the Tories faff around with policies to demonstrate how socially liberal they are which do precisely nothing to address any of these concerns.
A great opportunity for a Labour open to fresh ideas.
Rovinghawk said:
AJL308 said:
I don't have a huge amount to stash but if it looked even remotely likely that we were in line for a Labour government under Corbyn I'd seriously look at moving what little I had abroad - Cayman's, or similar. Anything left in UK would be taxed away to nothing in very short order.
Bear in mind that Labour have already stated that they have plans in place to prevent this; if you have to do it then do it very quickly, before they can pass laws to stop you doing what you want with your money.A holiday in Grand Cayman in the not too distant future may be an idea.
jonnyb said:
don'tbesilly said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
600,001 and we wouldn’t even be taking about it right now, so I think very different would sum it up.
You make a fair point- a pity for you that you're talking about what didn't happen rather than what did.Did either the Remain/Leave campaign present mandates prior to the referendum?
A simple yes/no to both questions will suffice
Life tends to be a little more complex than yes or no. It’s the inability to realise this that’s got us into this mess. Reducing complex questions down to binary answers isn’t the way forward, reality tends to intervene. Quite happy to have a discussion about the complexity of the issues though.
So no answer save deflection, excellent response.
I'll answer, no margin of victory required in the EU Ref bill, no mandates from either campaign, not difficult to answer, or was it?
jonnyb said:
don'tbesilly said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
600,001 and we wouldn’t even be taking about it right now, so I think very different would sum it up.
You make a fair point- a pity for you that you're talking about what didn't happen rather than what did.Did either the Remain/Leave campaign present mandates prior to the referendum?
A simple yes/no to both questions will suffice
Life tends to be a little more complex than yes or no. It’s the inability to realise this that’s got us into this mess. Reducing complex questions down to binary answers isn’t the way forward, reality tends to intervene. Quite happy to have a discussion about the complexity of the issues though.
for all the opprobrium that is falling (rightly) on May's shoulders the fact is that it is Camaron who screwed all of us remain/leave good and proper.
If you're a fervent remainer then the reason why is obvious
If you're ambivalent or a leaver then his ban on any preparation for a leave vote was, politically speaking, evil which was then compounded by turning tail like the spineless gimp that he is. Utter, UTTER - I'd (nearly) rather have bliar or uncle fester.
I'm not saying that May and the current shower of st wouldn't have cocked up regardless but at least a lot of the groundwork would have been done.
If you're a fervent remainer then the reason why is obvious
If you're ambivalent or a leaver then his ban on any preparation for a leave vote was, politically speaking, evil which was then compounded by turning tail like the spineless gimp that he is. Utter, UTTER
- I'd (nearly) rather have bliar or uncle fester.I'm not saying that May and the current shower of s
t wouldn't have cocked up regardless but at least a lot of the groundwork would have been done.oyster said:
In the 2015 general election 80%+ of votes were cast for pro-EU parties, UKIP only polled 15%ish, yet they were bloody noisy for that 15%
for a single issue party to get 15% is phenomenal, even more so when you consider the weight of "the establishment" and a fair chunk of the media was against them.Fittster said:
The reason for the rise of UKIP, Tory Brexiters and Momentum is the utter failure of centrist politician for both Labour (Blair) and the Conservatives (Major and Cameron). Their economic policies at best lead to economic stagnation and insecurity for many people. Why would people want to return to that?
in fairness to Major he left bliar and broon with a great economy - only for those twunts to ruin it.JagLover said:
Fittster said:
A bloke with a really good hipster beard said
"The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."
Are you proposing the Tories give up on Capitalism, recognizing it's flaws and embrace Marxism? If not how are the middle class supposed to be saved?
That is a fair question Fittster"The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."
Are you proposing the Tories give up on Capitalism, recognizing it's flaws and embrace Marxism? If not how are the middle class supposed to be saved?
Ever since the advent of the industrial revolution there have always been jobs disrupted by new means of production while at the same time many more jobs were created elsewhere. The issue with ongoing automation is more with the scale and pace of change. This is combining in the UK context with falling home ownership rates due to a malfunctioning housing market, but also with a general suspicion of development (see the battles over Heathrow expansion).
There are millions in the working and lower middle classes who know they are only one redundancy away from potential penury. When May had different advisers her premiership was going to be targeting the JAMs to make their lives better.
As to what government can actually do without massive costs. For insecurity it could improve redundancy terms, increase the minimum wage and make benefits more general. For housing it can try and fix the broken market to improve affordability, my favourite proposal to do this a state land bank, but there are others.
We have talked on this thread about the centre ground of British politics. As far as I can see the centre ground is scared whether it will still have a well paid job in 5-10 years time and thinks their children will be worse off than they are. Meanwhile the Tories faff around with policies to demonstrate how socially liberal they are which do precisely nothing to address any of these concerns.
A great opportunity for a Labour open to fresh ideas.
As I have said, I think the middle class as we know it is going to disappear at a frightening pace and if they don't offer some sort of genuine hope to those dropping out of it, they are going to get destroyed at the next GE. That doesn't mean embracing Marxism. It's basic common sense.
ETA, I'd highly recommend reading Julian Richer's excellent new book The Ethical Capitalist for more on this.
Edited by easytiger123 on Thursday 12th July 16:09
powerstroke said:
Maybe but when we have the toxic combination of millions of tory voters saying they won't vote for them again and millions of people who want a labour admin labour will get into power by default...
I seriously think if there was a GE tomorrow there would be a labour majority ...
this. every year more and more people become able to vote, a massive percent of those will vote labour I seriously think if there was a GE tomorrow there would be a labour majority ...
Aren't Labour just as divided over the issue? The boss comes out with his version and other people come out with theirs same as on the Tory side it's just quieter as they're in opposition. I'm not sure if they got in tomorrow Labour would sort anything out.
The only clear thing to be seen is the fact that only the leader of the Lib Dem's is saying we shouldn't leave.
The only clear thing to be seen is the fact that only the leader of the Lib Dem's is saying we shouldn't leave.
don'tbesilly said:
Was there a required margin between the Leave/Remain vote in the EU referendum bill?
Did either the Remain/Leave campaign present mandates prior to the referendum?
A simple yes/no to both questions will suffice
To suggest there was no required margin must mean you have rocks in your head.Did either the Remain/Leave campaign present mandates prior to the referendum?
A simple yes/no to both questions will suffice
The closer the margin of victory, the smaller the mandate- regardless of whether leave or remain won.
Here’s why:
1. Brexit is required to be ratified by Parliament.
2. An exit deal needs to be done with the EU
3. The government wants to annoy as few voters as possible on either side because it would like to remain in power.
If leave had won 70/30, we wouldn’t be having this conversation - that tells you all you need to know about the mandate from the winning margin.
don'tbesilly said:
jonnyb said:
don'tbesilly said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
Rovinghawk said:
jonnyb said:
600,001 and we wouldn’t even be taking about it right now, so I think very different would sum it up.
You make a fair point- a pity for you that you're talking about what didn't happen rather than what did.Did either the Remain/Leave campaign present mandates prior to the referendum?
A simple yes/no to both questions will suffice
Life tends to be a little more complex than yes or no. It’s the inability to realise this that’s got us into this mess. Reducing complex questions down to binary answers isn’t the way forward, reality tends to intervene. Quite happy to have a discussion about the complexity of the issues though.
So no answer save deflection, excellent response.
I'll answer, no margin of victory required in the EU Ref bill, no mandates from either campaign, not difficult to answer, or was it?
There was always a margin of victory required, in this instance 1 vote. You could also argue that the material put out by both sides during the campaign was their mandate, you could also argue the opposite.
If remain had won by one vote, would Farage have accepted the result, or would he be talking about margins of victory and mandates to peruse policies. To think otherwise is really not dealing with reality again.
Yet again the binary question meets the wall of reality. Complex questions can’t be reduced to simple answers, no matter how much you wish they could be.
Edited by jonnyb on Thursday 12th July 16:40
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff