Is this the last tory government
Discussion
MYOB said:
amgmcqueen said:
May has destroyed the Tories, RIP.
No, that was David Cameron 
king men. That and Farage and BJ, who lit a fuse, then legged it like the cowards that they are. It says something mind, when even Tory disliking me wishes 'come back DC and Gideon, all is forgiven' What a crying shame that there is no effective opposition. Corbyn the hippy has been a stalwart against the EU throughout his entire political career. All of a sudden he is playing any tune to the electorate, to support a re-vote. Much like a slag in the nightclub protesting that she really is not easy, then bending over in the alley, to anything with a pulse, at 2am. Five minutes before the taxi is due.
I am really despairing at the current state of politics, if you hadn't guessed.
Edited by Fermit and Sexy Sarah on Monday 10th December 23:03
The Dangerous Elk said:
To be honest it seems the Cons are taking the hit for everybody. Labour would be in exactly (worse) same position with the HoC and the Uk public still decided down the middle, the Eu would still be as toadish as now as it is in their instincts & interest to cause confusion.
Do you think the wounds within the Tory party on Europe will ever heal?Helicopter123 said:
The Dangerous Elk said:
To be honest it seems the Cons are taking the hit for everybody. Labour would be in exactly (worse) same position with the HoC and the Uk public still decided down the middle, the Eu would still be as toadish as now as it is in their instincts & interest to cause confusion.
Do you think the wounds within the Tory party on Europe will ever heal?And spend the next 40 years in political wasteland campaigning for a new referendum on joining the EU and someone will probably shoot a dog.
ETA Auberon Waugh if you need more help
Edited by B'stard Child on Monday 10th December 23:23
B'stard Child said:
Helicopter123 said:
The Dangerous Elk said:
To be honest it seems the Cons are taking the hit for everybody. Labour would be in exactly (worse) same position with the HoC and the Uk public still decided down the middle, the Eu would still be as toadish as now as it is in their instincts & interest to cause confusion.
Do you think the wounds within the Tory party on Europe will ever heal?And spend the next 40 years in political wasteland campaigning for a new referendum on joining the EU and someone will probably shoot a dog.
amgmcqueen said:
How much more incompetence does she have to show for the 48 letters to go in....?!
Not going to happen, if a general election is called Labour will wipe the floor with them and I say that as a lifelong tory voter.
I saw an online poll for 'If there was an election tomorrow, who would you vote for' at the weekend, and the Tories were still 10 points ahead of Labour. Not going to happen, if a general election is called Labour will wipe the floor with them and I say that as a lifelong tory voter.
Labour are in as big a mess with their leadership.
Helicopter123 said:
B'stard Child said:
Helicopter123 said:
The Dangerous Elk said:
To be honest it seems the Cons are taking the hit for everybody. Labour would be in exactly (worse) same position with the HoC and the Uk public still decided down the middle, the Eu would still be as toadish as now as it is in their instincts & interest to cause confusion.
Do you think the wounds within the Tory party on Europe will ever heal?And spend the next 40 years in political wasteland campaigning for a new referendum on joining the EU and someone will probably shoot a dog.
t out politicians are and then at the next GE elect Corbyn for sts and giggles
amgmcqueen said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
amgmcqueen said:
May has destroyed the Tories, RIP.
Rubbish. If and when May's deal is defeated, she will be gone, a Brexitter Tory MP will become PM, there will be a strong Brexit flavour in the cabinet, and the language will change completely. Then you will see how the party is able to rejuvenate itself.
Just because the current shenanigans are unbecoming, doesn't mean the Tories will be facing extinction anytime soon.
Not going to happen, if a general election is called Labour will wipe the floor with them and I say that as a lifelong tory voter.
May hasn't been given yet the opportunity to get her deal through Parliament. Submitting a letter when JRM suggested was premature and tactically wrong.
May's deal isn't quite yet in its final form. Waiting to see if she can make some adjustments to see if it can get a majority in Parliament is the best approach at this point. If it fails (which may mean when it loses a second vote), May will resign, (or she will lose a Tory leadership confidence vote). Then a Brexit PM will take over.
Look back through the decades - Tory MPs are ruthless at doing whatever is necessary to maximise their chances of staying in power. They are not like Labour (who for example designed a naive process for their leadership election so it is out of their control).
the tribester said:
I saw an online poll for 'If there was an election tomorrow, who would you vote for' at the weekend, and the Tories were still 10 points ahead of Labour.
Labour are in as big a mess with their leadership.
If Corbyn and McDonnell were not in charge of Labour, or the face of Labour, then I think we would be in a very different situation by now. Labour are in as big a mess with their leadership.
No matter how much the UK hate May at the moment, the alternative is even more scary, and that tells you everything.
Remember just how s
t May was during her election campaign, pretty much the worst I have ever seen, yet the alternative still didn't beat her. EddieSteadyGo said:
Again, you underestimate the intelligence of your average Tory MP.
May hasn't been given yet the opportunity to get her deal through Parliament. Submitting a letter when JRM suggested was premature and tactically wrong.
May's deal isn't quite yet in its final form. Waiting to see if she can make some adjustments to see if it can get a majority in Parliament is the best approach at this point. If it fails (which may mean when it loses a second vote), May will resign, (or she will lose a Tory leadership confidence vote). Then a Brexit PM will take over.
Look back through the decades - Tory MPs are ruthless at doing whatever is necessary to maximise their chances of staying in power. They are not like Labour (who for example designed a naive process for their leadership election so it is out of their control).
The reasons for Blair's landslide victory in 97 are complex and to suggest it was one factor over another is unsupportable. However, one of the historic reasons floating voters - and I know that more than the normal floating voters went from tory to labour - is when a party is in a shambolic state. That was the tories at that time. Major is, I think, one of the most underrated PMs. He was leader when the tory infighting was at the worst I can remember. Or should I say could remember. The right, kept out of the loop to a great extent by Thatcher, wanted to push for supremacy. May hasn't been given yet the opportunity to get her deal through Parliament. Submitting a letter when JRM suggested was premature and tactically wrong.
May's deal isn't quite yet in its final form. Waiting to see if she can make some adjustments to see if it can get a majority in Parliament is the best approach at this point. If it fails (which may mean when it loses a second vote), May will resign, (or she will lose a Tory leadership confidence vote). Then a Brexit PM will take over.
Look back through the decades - Tory MPs are ruthless at doing whatever is necessary to maximise their chances of staying in power. They are not like Labour (who for example designed a naive process for their leadership election so it is out of their control).
They must have known that it was costing them votes, and probably the election, although I don't think anyone suggested the mass migration, but a substantial minority didn't give a damn. They went for personal glory.
That's the problem now. Whatever brexit brings, there will need to be blame and the only ones to pick on are tory MPs. They will still be fighting amongst themselves.
If Corbyn does get in - and if I remember rightly, the polls suggested that the tories would increase their majority last election - then the ones to blame will be those who put their personal advancement over all else.
I agree that it will be catastrophic if Corbyn does become PM. There can be little doubt about that. He'll be kicked out and a real lefty put in his place and we will bemoan the fact that the moderate is no longer in charge. However, from the current showing, it would be catastrophic if the tories get in.
Where's the third party when you need it?
EddieSteadyGo said:
Again, you underestimate the intelligence of your average Tory MP.
May hasn't been given yet the opportunity to get her deal through Parliament. Submitting a letter when JRM suggested was premature and tactically wrong.
May's deal isn't quite yet in its final form. Waiting to see if she can make some adjustments to see if it can get a majority in Parliament is the best approach at this point. If it fails (which may mean when it loses a second vote), May will resign, (or she will lose a Tory leadership confidence vote). Then a Brexit PM will take over.
Look back through the decades - Tory MPs are ruthless at doing whatever is necessary to maximise their chances of staying in power. They are not like Labour (who for example designed a naive process for their leadership election so it is out of their control).
If May can't get her vote through, her only sensible choice is a second referendum, announced immediately. A GE would be too divisive and long-winded. A "Brexit PM" has no better chance of getting a vote through Parliament than May does.May hasn't been given yet the opportunity to get her deal through Parliament. Submitting a letter when JRM suggested was premature and tactically wrong.
May's deal isn't quite yet in its final form. Waiting to see if she can make some adjustments to see if it can get a majority in Parliament is the best approach at this point. If it fails (which may mean when it loses a second vote), May will resign, (or she will lose a Tory leadership confidence vote). Then a Brexit PM will take over.
Look back through the decades - Tory MPs are ruthless at doing whatever is necessary to maximise their chances of staying in power. They are not like Labour (who for example designed a naive process for their leadership election so it is out of their control).
At least this time around the electorate could have some sense of the options...
gizlaroc said:
skwdenyer said:
At least this time around the electorate could have some sense of the options...
Really? What are they then?
All we have had is scaremongering, from both sides, for the last 2 years.
No one is truly any the wiser than last time.
- remain (a known quantity)
- take the May deal (now a better-known quantity)
- go for hard Brexit with a 2-year transition (also somewhat easy to quantify now)
However, if Parliament is convinced that "no deal" is an unmitigated disaster for the country (which is, after all, what they are elected to decide) then it could be narrowed down to remain or May deal.
What it can't be is "no deal, no transition." IMHO
I don't agree that "all we have had is scaremongering, from both sides." I've read a lot of detailed analysis and commentary. A lot of well-reasoned scenario-planning has been shot down as "scaremongering" when it is anything but.
But here's where I am. I run businesses and consult for others'. There is no way to make proper preparations for "no deal" between now and the end of March. None. Not enough time to write, test, audit, verify software changes / developments. Not enough time to make alternative arrangements for bits of business needing to be in the single market. Not enough time to set up a bonded warehouse. And so on.
Some businesses have done those things already, incurring £millions of costs "just in case." Those businesses who cannot afford to waste such sums have just had to wait.
So whatever happens we *must* have - at worst - a transition of some sort. Right now there's no prospect of that happening.
One of the businesses I'm involved with can't even decide how it will sell product to the EU next year. In the even of a straight hard leave on 29th March, they will have to set up a bonded supply chain to avoid double duty etc,. on sales to the EU. That will require software changes, admin changes, etc. Not to mention VAT issues.
That's not scaremongering. That's fact. The current path stands a very good chance of bankrupting a lot of businesses.
If the only way of getting certainty is a 2nd referendum, then yes please.
skwdenyer said:
If May can't get her vote through, her only sensible choice is a second referendum, announced immediately. A GE would be too divisive and long-winded. A "Brexit PM" has no better chance of getting a vote through Parliament than May does.
At least this time around the electorate could have some sense of the options...
I agree with your first point - bearing in mind the numbers in the Commons, if May's proposal doesn't pass, then a second ref is the only logical option to resolve the parliamentary logjam.At least this time around the electorate could have some sense of the options...
However, I would advise caution assuming a second GE wouldn't also happen.
Let's imagine what happens if May's deal is defeated. The first part is easy - May will be gone. Next decision is to stop the clock to allow time for a 2nd ref. To do this we would either need to withdraw A50 or get it extended. Withdrawing A50 is the better option - it resets the clock, requires no agreement from anyone else, and means no concessions can be extracted by either the EU commission or other member states.
However, withdrawing A50 is politically "difficult" due to the shrill cries of betrayal which will come from the brexit loons. So this could only be done if there was a 'trusted' Brexiteer as PM. If it were someone like Javid, I would expect it would be just extended, with agreement from the other EU members.
So before you can pick the right option, you need to get a replacement Brexit, Tory MP elected as PM, PDQ. On that basis, I would probably expect a shortened leadership election. As things stand I would expect Boris to win that election, although it could be Davis, with an outside chance of Raab (who could be my choice, if I was voting).
So now you have the clock still ticking, a Brexit PM, and an urgent need to stop the clock to allow some time. At this point the PM will need to choose whether to try and rescind A50 or delay it in agreement with the EU.
Also important at this stage - it will be imperative for the incoming PM to sweep away every single last remnant of May's premiership - so all preferred ministers, all advisers, senior civil servants like Olly Robbins. Anyone, or anything, associated closely with May will be toxic.
Next comes the second ref. If this starts to look likely it is going to cause a LOT of recriminations - someone will need to get the blame for 'why we are where we are'. May will get her fair share of course, but the Tories will need to get Corbyn and the Labour front bench on the hook for their fair share of the blame too.
This is where a second GE comes in. Labour won't move a confidence vote in the government unless they will be sure of winning it. But they might try and move a 2nd ref vote. So I can see how the new PM might try and engineer a set of circumstances where Labour get the "blame" for a 2nd ref but which the Conservatives go along with. A GE called at the right time would help create the necessary circumstances and confusion to ensure the blame gets attributed in the "right" place.
So I'm not saying another GE is absolutely necessary, but it might be useful for the PM to use the opportunity it creates . After all, the new PM doesn't have much to lose - they don't have a majority, and it is going to become increasingly painful to continue letting the DUP hold the whip hand.
gizlaroc said:
Really?
What are they then?
All we have had is scaremongering, from both sides, for the last 2 years.
No one is truly any the wiser than last time.
You would have to be a pretty dense individual not to see the glaring differences! What are they then?
All we have had is scaremongering, from both sides, for the last 2 years.
No one is truly any the wiser than last time.
1. You have a WA that wasn't negotiated in 2016 which sets out Brexit with a Deal.
2. You have 'worst case' scenarios and 'optimistic scenarios' for WTO to choose from or make a case for the, most likely, middle ground.
The Electorate is hugely more informed now and doesn't require any additional campaigning from any side. The WA is a fact, it is what it is, you can read it, decide for yourself if you fancy it or not.
WTO can be seen for what it is and you can pretty much work out what the issues are that would be faced before FTA's can be agreed; it isn't difficult.
Remain is now known to be the same as before the Referendum; yes, the 'direction' of the EU may throw up some change but then the MEP's change every 5 years and if an Electorate wants 'Farage-type' MEP's in its ranks to force change in the EU, it can. Leavers love to talk about how the EU is going to collapse because the populations of many Member States are increasingly anti-EU...this can be tested since surely those Member States can vote in MEP's who will take control of the EU Parliament?
It is true that the UK's Representative system means you have to rely upon others to elect your MEP's but not so for other Member States who elect directly.
Unless you have been absorbing soundbites and idiot rhetoric for the last 2 years, there is a new wealth of information you can research and form an opinion about. It may not change your original vote, but for some, it might.
It is silly to deny that the Electorate knows more about Brexit now than it did 2 years ago - a child can see the differences.
Rather focus upon the real debate, is there sufficient evidence to warrant a 2nd Referendum, i.e. has the Electorate demonstrated a sizable number - certainly greater than 4%, have changed their minds? I would argue that the Polls alone provide evidence of this.
Equally, now that we know the extent of a Deal, is it worth having or would we prefer WTO or Remain? Again, Leavers did not demonstrate if they all would be happy to ignore the Deal and go WTO so this begs the question: would they prefer Remain or the Deal offered? Would the numbers preferring Remain over the Deal offered add up to greater than 4% and overthrow the original majority?
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