Is this the last tory government

[Halb]

djohnson said:

The famous Corbyn affect actually only managed 4 more seats than Gordon Brown did in 2010. Back then that was viewed as a very poor result for Labour but by 2017 it was somehow viewed as a strong performance.

The correlation/causation/connexion with Jezza as leader and the upswing in Labour is nebulous. Did Labour put in a strong performance, yes, they got another 3 million vote than 2015 (30 seats). Torys got an extra 2 mill, over half came from UKiPs (40idd percent of UKiPs vote swing to Torys), which helped Maybot. Many perceived her as the strong leader to lead brexit. Upshot is the reasons why Labour did so well and weren't destroyed, no one really knows, but it does coincide with Jezza and his lot.

[JagLover]

Halb said:

The correlation/causation/connexion with Jezza as leader and the upswing in Labour is nebulous. Did Labour put in a strong performance, yes, they got another 3 million vote than 2015 (30 seats). Torys got an extra 2 mill, over half came from UKiPs (40idd percent of UKiPs vote swing to Torys), which helped Maybot. Many perceived her as the strong leader to lead brexit. Upshot is the reasons why Labour did so well and weren't destroyed, no one really knows, but it does coincide with Jezza and his lot.

The received wisdom of the London based MSM is a very poor guide on what moves electoral results IMO.

They don't like Corbyn because they prefer champagne socialism to the real thing, but there were many voters disengaged from Labour in the Blair years who came back, and, in terms of their traditional white working class support it is not clear that Corbyn is any more unpopular than Miliband.

Personally I think one factor holding Corbyn back is his past support for any anti-western group going, including many who used violent methods to try and achieve their goals. A "clean" candidate with similar views to Corbyn but without the baggage would be entirely electable IMO, despite how much the MSM would prefer a Blairite.

[Halb]

JagLover said:

The received wisdom of the London based MSM is a very poor guide on what moves electoral results IMO.

They don't like Corbyn because they prefer champagne socialism to the real thing, but there were many voters disengaged from Labour in the Blair years who came back, and, in terms of their traditional white working class support it is not clear that Corbyn is any more unpopular than Miliband.

Personally I think one factor holding Corbyn back is his past support for any anti-western group going, including many who used violent methods to try and achieve their goals. A "clean" candidate with similar views to Corbyn but without the baggage would be entirely electable IMO, despite how much the MSM would prefer a Blairite.

THat seems reasonable. Not sure if there is someone like that in the PLP, the ex-army guy maybe, forget his name.

[98elise]

Halb said:

djohnson said:

The famous Corbyn affect actually only managed 4 more seats than Gordon Brown did in 2010. Back then that was viewed as a very poor result for Labour but by 2017 it was somehow viewed as a strong performance.

The correlation/causation/connexion with Jezza as leader and the upswing in Labour is nebulous. Did Labour put in a strong performance, yes, they got another 3 million vote than 2015 (30 seats). Torys got an extra 2 mill, over half came from UKiPs (40idd percent of UKiPs vote swing to Torys), which helped Maybot. Many perceived her as the strong leader to lead brexit. Upshot is the reasons why Labour did so well and weren't destroyed, no one really knows, but it does coincide with Jezza and his lot.

Inless my memory is failing me Jeremy was disliked by his own MP's and the voters alike. Even Owen Jones disliked him.

Labour got an absolute beating in the local elections just prior to the GE.

May then ran a terrible campaign with policies like taking your house to pay for care, and bringing back fox hunting.

Labour promised extra holiday for everyone, free uni, paying off student loans, lots of extra police, rent caps, nationalisation etc....all at no cost.

With the promise of free stuff people decided they might just vote for him, and Labour were on a roll. Suddenly the cult of Jezza was born, and Jezzfest was planned.

Of course they still lost though.

[Robertj21a]

Wouldn't Keir Starmer be a better leader ?

[powerstroke]

Robertj21a said:

Wouldn't Keir Starmer be a better leader ?

Yes if you want a Blair Clone ...

[loafer123]

Robertj21a said:

Wouldn't Keir Starmer be a better leader ?

Sweaty Starmer?

Never said an honest word in his life. It was trained out of him.

[NoNeed]

Robertj21a said:

Wouldn't Keir Starmer be a better leader ?

Truth is, anybody would be.

It's a sad reflection of modern politics that Labour has a few potentially good leaders, yet fill the front bench with loons

[Halb]

98elise said:

Inless my memory is failing me Jeremy was disliked by his own MP's and the voters alike. Even Owen Jones disliked him.
Labour got an absolute beating in the local elections just prior to the GE.
May then ran a terrible campaign with policies like taking your house to pay for care, and bringing back fox hunting.
Labour promised extra holiday for everyone, free uni, paying off student loans, lots of extra police, rent caps, nationalisation etc....all at no cost.
With the promise of free stuff people decided they might just vote for him, and Labour were on a roll. Suddenly the cult of Jezza was born, and Jezzfest was planned.
Of course they still lost though.

Jezza was disliked by some of his MPs, and disliked by many voters I guess, But still raked in 3million plus voters, so I guess he wasn't hated that much by the largest labour turnout since 1997.

[Halb]

Daniel Jarvis was the bloke I was thinking of. I made a thread a while back about him being next PLP leader.


something Curtice said on Bloomberg yesterday made me wanna look up his thoughts on the boundary changes,.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrar...

[98elise]

Halb said:

98elise said:

Inless my memory is failing me Jeremy was disliked by his own MP's and the voters alike. Even Owen Jones disliked him.
Labour got an absolute beating in the local elections just prior to the GE.
May then ran a terrible campaign with policies like taking your house to pay for care, and bringing back fox hunting.
Labour promised extra holiday for everyone, free uni, paying off student loans, lots of extra police, rent caps, nationalisation etc....all at no cost.
With the promise of free stuff people decided they might just vote for him, and Labour were on a roll. Suddenly the cult of Jezza was born, and Jezzfest was planned.
Of course they still lost though.

Jezza was disliked by some of his MPs, and disliked by many voters I guess, But still raked in 3million plus voters, so I guess he wasn't hated that much by the largest labour turnout since 1997.

Everyone like free stuff.

2017 local elections were a disaster for Labour

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39826375

That's why May felt safe calling a GE. Unfortunately she ran a st campaign, and JC promised to play fast and loose with the countries chequebook.

Edited by 98elise on Saturday 19th January 12:00

[Halb]

98elise said:

Everyone like free stuff.
2017 local elections were a disaster for Labour
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39826375
That's why May felt safe calling a GE. Unfortunately she ran a st campaign, and JC promised to play fast and loose with the countries chequebook.

Edited by 98elise on Saturday 19th January 12:00

Yes, that is something that is always levelled at every labour leader here. I can recall people saying it about Brown and MIlliband. The parties bribe their core voters. Council elections are different to the big deal. Maybot may have ran a st campaign, she probably was saved by UKiPs handing over 45% of their 3.8million. It's all in the wind now.

[uk66fastback]

Halb said:

98elise said:

Inless my memory is failing me Jeremy was disliked by his own MP's and the voters alike. Even Owen Jones disliked him.
Labour got an absolute beating in the local elections just prior to the GE.
May then ran a terrible campaign with policies like taking your house to pay for care, and bringing back fox hunting.
Labour promised extra holiday for everyone, free uni, paying off student loans, lots of extra police, rent caps, nationalisation etc....all at no cost.
With the promise of free stuff people decided they might just vote for him, and Labour were on a roll. Suddenly the cult of Jezza was born, and Jezzfest was planned.
Of course they still lost though.

Jezza was disliked by some of his MPs, and disliked by many voters I guess, But still raked in 3million plus voters, so I guess he wasn't hated that much by the largest labour turnout since 1997.

Corbyn always has been an MP of protest, nothing more. Heaven help us if him and that communist idiot get into No.10 and 11.

[Robertj21a]

NoNeed said:

Truth is, anybody would be.

It's a sad reflection of modern politics that Labour has a few potentially good leaders, yet fill the front bench with loons

Not even the delightful Abbott ? - mind you, I'm getting a bit worried when even she said that Leave would win a People's Vote !

[powerstroke]

Oh well never mind , another nail in the tory coffin as the ERG start to cave in

[hidetheelephants]

98elise said:

Everyone like free stuff.

2017 local elections were a disaster for Labour

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39826375

That's why May felt safe calling a GE. Unfortunately she ran a st campaign, and JC promised to play fast and loose with the countries chequebook.

The stest, most tone-deaf campaign the tories have run since 'New Labour, New Danger' and Mr 70s throwback still couldn't win despite promising everyone the moon on a stick. Corbyn's the finest election campaign weapon the Tories have.

[Hereward]

Corbyn was very strong out and about on the general election trail, his oratory was good and his message was lapped up by the masses. Coupled with a st-hot social media campaign they closed down a large points deficit.

With Lab and Cons now polling neck-and-neck surely a GE is Labour's for the taking. It all depends upon who the Cons wheel out as their next leader.

[gizlaroc]

Hereward said:

Corbyn was very strong out and about on the general election trail, his oratory was good and his message was lapped up by the masses. Coupled with a st-hot social media campaign they closed down a large points deficit.

With Lab and Cons now polling neck-and-neck surely a GE is Labour's for the taking. It all depends upon who the Cons wheel out as their next leader.

But since then everyone has realised he is a sham.

Labour now only have a 4% lead over Tories in the 18-24 age group, which is pretty unheard of.

YouGov said:

The latest YouGov 'best PM' polls have some remarkable numbers:

1. Corbyn down to 20%, May on 38%.

2. Only 46% of 2017 Labour voters pick Corbyn.

3. More *Remain* voters pick May over Corbyn (30% to 29%)

4. Corbyn lead with 18-24s down to just 4% (29% to 25%)

[powerstroke]

AAAANNND , Hammond knocks another nail in the tory coffin with his moronic comment about what people voted for in the referendum the cupid stunt !!!

[powerstroke]

Re oily Robbins , so looks like stoping a meaningful brexit is more important than the electability of the tory party hope the party donors and the rank and file members think its worth a Corbyn government ...