How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 4)
Discussion
Ghibli said:
At the same time we can also read comments from leave voters saying "this is not the Brexit I voted for" why should they have a further choice?
When we actually know what we will be getting how are we going to know if it's the will of 52% or the will of the country as a whole.
Presumably when there is an agreed deal on the table, or not.When we actually know what we will be getting how are we going to know if it's the will of 52% or the will of the country as a whole.
psi310398 said:
Depends what you mean but the Germans are very worried. I'm sure others will move out in part or in whole. The interesting thing will be to see where they are in five years' time.
What I meant is does DB have a unique problem that has led it to this move or is it something we will see more of? (Or have other banks already moved and I have missed it?)desolate said:
What I meant is does DB have a unique problem that has led it to this move or is it something we will see more of? (Or have other banks already moved and I have missed it?)
Some other banks have moved some of their operations. Others will follow. How material it will be remains to be seen. In many cases, it is brass plating.EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström tweeted back in February that reference to the Paris climate compromise was essential to any EU trade deal, and the pact finalised with Japan recently included a Paris clause.
Unlike their approach with Japan, following Juncker's visit to the White House the EU has 'abandoned its customary climate hard talk in a bid to defuse trade tensions with the US'.
The prospect of a US trade war at the same time as Brexit is focusing what passes for thinking over at EU HQ with a new emphasis on de-escalation. That could augur well for the UK if May has a clue (so not likely).
Unlike their approach with Japan, following Juncker's visit to the White House the EU has 'abandoned its customary climate hard talk in a bid to defuse trade tensions with the US'.
The prospect of a US trade war at the same time as Brexit is focusing what passes for thinking over at EU HQ with a new emphasis on de-escalation. That could augur well for the UK if May has a clue (so not likely).
Ghibli said:
Great, the 48% would get a vote on two options of which they want neither.
How about a vote to stay in the EU or to stay in the EU, does that sound fair?
How many options were available on the original vote, why do think youHow about a vote to stay in the EU or to stay in the EU, does that sound fair?
are entitled to more options than another set of voters?
desolate said:
psi310398 said:
Some other banks have moved some of their operations. Others will follow. How material it will be remains to be seen. In many cases, it is brass plating.
Thanks. Similar to general insurance then.The UK retrenchment is by no means solely because of Brexit.
turbobloke said:
Odd definition of 'essential' they've got there 
gooner1 said:
Ghibli said:
Great, the 48% would get a vote on two options of which they want neither.
How about a vote to stay in the EU or to stay in the EU, does that sound fair?
How many options were available on the original vote, why do think you are entitled to more options than another set of voters?How about a vote to stay in the EU or to stay in the EU, does that sound fair?
In other news, Remain lost the referendum vote and its supporters still aren't coping very well. Nothing there to whine about
amusingduck said:
turbobloke said:
Odd definition of 'essential' they've got there 
And as we've seen from Juncker-meets-Trump, it's not actually.
djc206 said:
Why can’t people change their minds once all the facts and options are laid bare?
They absolutely can. Once Brexit has been implemented and we have left the EU I have no problem with another referendum on whether to stay out or to rejoin the EU. Until then we won't have all the facts and opinions in order to make such a judgement.Remainers are constantly telling us that we didn't know what we voted for 2 years ago. It was a stupid binary question to a complex situation, both sides lied in the build up and the average person couldn't have had a clue as to what they were voting for. How has any of this changed? If anything, the possible options, opinions and potential outcomes are even more confusing than they were 2 years ago. If people "got it wrong" then by being ill informed, they can't possibly be trusted in such a referendum again surely? What would the question be on the ballot paper? Given that we have no idea what it would mean to NOT go through with Brexit now, the Remain options are at least as complex as those for Leave.
We need to see this through one way or another and then decide, after a period of settling in, whether we want to rejoin or not. Sure, there could be some short-term hardship, but if Brexit is going to be as disasterous as Remainers say it will, what's the issue with another referendum in say 2025/2030? Is it the fact that Remainers know no-one in their right mind would vote to join the EU now or in the future?
Digga said:
DB has manifold problems. Was downgraded by S&P to BBB at the start of last month and is now retreating from many markets: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-27...
The UK retrenchment is by no means solely because of Brexit.
Sure, but (tinfoil hat time?) given what has moved, I do wonder if the board has been put under pressure to be seen to relocate in exchange for support assurances from the government/Bundesbank. I know I would if I were the German government.The UK retrenchment is by no means solely because of Brexit.
powerstroke said:
Thanks , I think you will find people with non-christian beliefs and different coloured skin
come from OUT SIDE THE EU ... but never let the facts get in the way of posting a load of predictable remainer dreck .. ... And we leavers are supposed to be the stupid ones
"OUT SIDE"? come from OUT SIDE THE EU ... but never let the facts get in the way of posting a load of predictable remainer dreck .. ... And we leavers are supposed to be the stupid ones
Not all leavers are stupid or 'supposed to be stupid' but you are surely doing your bit to skew the percentages.
wiggy001 said:
Is it the fact that Remainers know no-one in their right mind would vote to join the EU now or in the future?
As it happens I agree...my view includes the likelihood that as time goes by the few that would want to re-join will get fewer. As to what will happen in 5 or 10 or (better) 40 years' time, then as always...nobody knows!jjlynn27 said:
powerstroke said:
Thanks , I think you will find people with non-christian beliefs and different coloured skin
come from OUT SIDE THE EU ... but never let the facts get in the way of posting a load of predictable remainer dreck .. ... And we leavers are supposed to be the stupid ones
"OUT SIDE"? come from OUT SIDE THE EU ... but never let the facts get in the way of posting a load of predictable remainer dreck .. ... And we leavers are supposed to be the stupid ones
Not all leavers are stupid or 'supposed to be stupid' but you are surely doing your bit to skew the percentages.
psi310398 said:
Digga said:
DB has manifold problems. Was downgraded by S&P to BBB at the start of last month and is now retreating from many markets: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-27...
The UK retrenchment is by no means solely because of Brexit.
Sure, but (tinfoil hat time?) given what has moved, I do wonder if the board has been put under pressure to be seen to relocate in exchange for support assurances from the government/Bundesbank. I know I would if I were the German government.The UK retrenchment is by no means solely because of Brexit.
Digga said:
And they're shutting Chicago because Muttie doesn't like Trump?
No. They have serious problems, and Brexit is the least of them, I'd imagine.They've moved the Euro-clearing operation to another exchange but stated that most of the people doing the settlement work will remain in London. That, to me, seems a mite more of political gesture rather than a free-standing business decision.
I can see the risk-reduction logic (if a bit thin) for moving to a continental exchange but keeping the operational people in London suggests a business need to minimise operational disruption.
Just a suspicion. But with DB being beholden to the goodwill of the powers that be in Germany, I wouldn't be surprised.
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