How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 4)
Discussion
Helicopter123 said:
skahigh said:
Also....
What difference does it make if Labour suddenly do a u-turn and adopt remain as a policy? They are not in government and have no way to get in to government in time to enact that policy.
If they have a 2nd ref in the manifesto then only a GE away from potentially averting Brexit. This would be a huge step forward and presents a clear route map to remain.What difference does it make if Labour suddenly do a u-turn and adopt remain as a policy? They are not in government and have no way to get in to government in time to enact that policy.
Do you expect to be taken seriously by the electorate, the international financial community and the world is you said... " Aww Shucks... we didn't really mean that. What we meant is have another vote and we will remain in the EU"
If I were in a position to lend to a UK Govt - I would be thinking - "Not a chance - they stand for nothing. And change their mind like a weather vane. Just quite simply uninvestable. In two years time they could change their mind again."
Ridgemont said:
jsf said:
vonuber said:
Sure - but what happens with the Irish border in that case?
Nothing.Watch last nights newsnight to see how prepared the EU is for that scenario.
No deal is the worst possible outcome by many miles for the RoI. Varadkar’s dumping of Kenny’s support for some kind of max fac solution may in retrospect look like a spectacular own goal.
There is the potential for a spectacular own goal .. The ROI has the potential to come out of Brexit worst of all the 28 countries
It could be disastrous.. the confidence and supply agreement keeping Varadkar in power is already shaky
I think there could quite easily be a collapse of govt in ROI over this
Troubleatmill said:
So the party that has in the manifesto.....
Do you expect to be taken seriously by the electorate, the international financial community and the world is you said... " Aww Shucks... we didn't really mean that. What we meant is have another vote and we will remain in the EU"
If I were in a position to lend to a UK Govt - I would be thinking - "Not a chance - they stand for nothing. And change their mind like a weather vane. Just quite simply uninvestable. In two years time they could change their mind again."
Circumstances change, and parties, like individuals must be free to reassess what they feel is in the countries best intetest.Do you expect to be taken seriously by the electorate, the international financial community and the world is you said... " Aww Shucks... we didn't really mean that. What we meant is have another vote and we will remain in the EU"
If I were in a position to lend to a UK Govt - I would be thinking - "Not a chance - they stand for nothing. And change their mind like a weather vane. Just quite simply uninvestable. In two years time they could change their mind again."
A Corbyn government would face many problems with international markets but a more pro European stance would not be one of them.
Helicopter123 said:
skahigh said:
Yes, my point was that calling a GE is not within their sphere of influence.
If chequers collapses then a GE inevitable.skahigh said:
Troubleatmill said:
Helicopter123 said:
Apparently, The Observer have a Poll showing 9/10 Labour Party members support a second referendum on the ultimate options for Brexit, with remain on the ballot paper.
This will place massive pressure on the leadership to adopt as policy.
Very important couple of weeks ahead.
And yet Electorate > MembersThis will place massive pressure on the leadership to adopt as policy.
Very important couple of weeks ahead.
Labour enthusiasts seem to forget this. Members can make a party unelectable.
What difference does it make if Labour suddenly do a u-turn and adopt remain as a policy? They are not in government and have no way to get in to government in time to enact that policy.
Most know UKIP are as dead as Chequers, so a vote for them is a waste of a walk to the polling booth.
There is no guarantee any second referendum would result in a Remain vote.
If anything the vote to Leave would now probably gain a much larger majority after the disastrous Salzburg debacle which arguably hurt the EU as much as it hurt May, neither came out looking good, but the harm to the EU in a 2nd referendum would be a joy to see.
At least 2 Tory Remain MPs have now come out in favour of Leave, one wonders just how many Remain voters/voters who didn't vote the first time around would join them.
Vanden Saab said:
Helicopter123 said:
skahigh said:
Yes, my point was that calling a GE is not within their sphere of influence.
If chequers collapses then a GE inevitable.Helicopter123 said:
Circumstances change, and parties, like individuals must be free to reassess what they feel is in the countries best intetest.
A Corbyn government would face many problems with international markets but a more pro European stance would not be one of them.
Right - As I said... A Corbyn government would face many problems with international markets but a more pro European stance would not be one of them.
Labour committed to Brexit
If they did a complete turnaround on it - and said " Labour = Remain"
Every international financial investor would be thinking - "What is stopping them from doing a complete turnaround in 6 months, 9 months, 1 year etc"
All that is needed is their members to say at every party conference to go " Aw s
t.... can we change that again"You cant do the hokey-cokey on this.
You nail your colours to the mast - and that is it.
don'tbesilly said:
Vanden Saab said:
Helicopter123 said:
skahigh said:
Yes, my point was that calling a GE is not within their sphere of influence.
If chequers collapses then a GE inevitable.I'm beginning to think we are throwing rocks at infant lambs with broken legs.
don'tbesilly said:
Self defeating policy, all those voters who deserted UKIP for Labour thinking Corbyn would give them what Farage said he'd give them, would just vote Tory (assumes there is a GE between now and end of March 2019).
Most know UKIP are as dead as Chequers, so a vote for them is a waste of a walk to the polling booth.
There is no guarantee any second referendum would result in a Remain vote.
If anything the vote to Leave would now probably gain a much larger majority after the disastrous Salzburg debacle which arguably hurt the EU as much as it hurt May, neither came out looking good, but the harm to the EU in a 2nd referendum would be a joy to see.
At least 2 Tory Remain MPs have now come out in favour of Leave, one wonders just how many Remain voters/voters who didn't vote the first time around would join them.
You are right in that no guarantee Labour would win a GE, or remain would win a second referendum. With the Tories having imploded though, you would think they would be in a strong position. Lib Dem’s and SNP would naturally be coalition partners if required.Most know UKIP are as dead as Chequers, so a vote for them is a waste of a walk to the polling booth.
There is no guarantee any second referendum would result in a Remain vote.
If anything the vote to Leave would now probably gain a much larger majority after the disastrous Salzburg debacle which arguably hurt the EU as much as it hurt May, neither came out looking good, but the harm to the EU in a 2nd referendum would be a joy to see.
At least 2 Tory Remain MPs have now come out in favour of Leave, one wonders just how many Remain voters/voters who didn't vote the first time around would join them.
Helicopter123 said:
You are right in that no guarantee Labour would win a GE, or remain would win a second referendum. With the Tories having imploded though, you would think they would be in a strong position. Lib Dem’s and SNP would naturally be coalition partners if required.
How many Labour voters that are die hard Leavers would vote Labour? Lib Dem? Independent?As galling as they may find it - if they want Brexit - they will vote Satan worshippers with Eurocopters and bells on it.
Once the UK has left the EU - Their allegiances may return to normal.
Troubleatmill said:
How many Labour voters that are die hard Leavers would vote Labour? Lib Dem? Independent?
As galling as they may find it - if they want Brexit - they will vote Satan worshippers with Eurocopters and bells on it.
Once the UK has left the EU - Their allegiances may return to normal.
Yes, but then how many Tory voting remainers will switch to Lib Dem’s or Labour? Tories are in a real mess and a ‘hard Brexit, election strategy hardly appealing to the important centre voters.As galling as they may find it - if they want Brexit - they will vote Satan worshippers with Eurocopters and bells on it.
Once the UK has left the EU - Their allegiances may return to normal.
Helicopter123 said:
don'tbesilly said:
Self defeating policy, all those voters who deserted UKIP for Labour thinking Corbyn would give them what Farage said he'd give them, would just vote Tory (assumes there is a GE between now and end of March 2019).
Most know UKIP are as dead as Chequers, so a vote for them is a waste of a walk to the polling booth.
There is no guarantee any second referendum would result in a Remain vote.
If anything the vote to Leave would now probably gain a much larger majority after the disastrous Salzburg debacle which arguably hurt the EU as much as it hurt May, neither came out looking good, but the harm to the EU in a 2nd referendum would be a joy to see.
At least 2 Tory Remain MPs have now come out in favour of Leave, one wonders just how many Remain voters/voters who didn't vote the first time around would join them.
You are right in that no guarantee Labour would win a GE, or remain would win a second referendum. With the Tories having imploded though, you would think they would be in a strong position. Lib Dem’s and SNP would naturally be coalition partners if required.Most know UKIP are as dead as Chequers, so a vote for them is a waste of a walk to the polling booth.
There is no guarantee any second referendum would result in a Remain vote.
If anything the vote to Leave would now probably gain a much larger majority after the disastrous Salzburg debacle which arguably hurt the EU as much as it hurt May, neither came out looking good, but the harm to the EU in a 2nd referendum would be a joy to see.
At least 2 Tory Remain MPs have now come out in favour of Leave, one wonders just how many Remain voters/voters who didn't vote the first time around would join them.
Would the Lib-Dem and SNP support outweigh the surge from Leave voters leaving Labour for the Tories?
Remember those voters wanted to leave the EU, they have no other allegiance to Labour, their one aim was to leave the EU, UKIP is dead, the only vote to count for Leave would go to the Tories.
May suffered in Salzburg, the real losers were the EU, they lost a massive number of supporters, no one can deny the own goal they scored, and spectacularly.
Keep it up though, the dream is amusing to watch/read.
Sheets Tabuer said:
What's with the insults? If a vote of no confidence is lost a general election is called.
Now - it could just be me ( I'm getting old, slow and my memory isn't what it was ) - but I cant recall Helicopter123 or anyone else in the last couple of pages mentioning a vote of no confidence.Happy to be corrected though.
s2art said:
Sheets Tabuer said:
What's with the insults? If a vote of no confidence is lost a general election is called.
Nope.since the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, a vote of no confidence means the government has 14 days in which to win a vote of confidence, or a general election is held.
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