How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
Earthdweller said:
2500sq/ft plus garage
Interior finished to a very high standard but garden drive and garage need finishing ..
Paid £180k for it
We looked at building,, but found this, which is probably cheaper than cost of site and building it today
Was thinking about that, and the other one ("...just under 3000sq ft and costing only about £200k to build").Interior finished to a very high standard but garden drive and garage need finishing ..
Paid £180k for it
We looked at building,, but found this, which is probably cheaper than cost of site and building it today
I can't imagine the materials are cheaper there (maybe even dearer) and labour costs can't be much different. So are those build prices (especially yours - is it new?) remarkably low for one-off properies? Is there something about the construction that reduces the cost?
soupdragon1 said:
I just don't quite get why ordinary people just don't bite the bullet and get out of the big cities and look at alternatives (caveat being, some people just love the city life too)
I guess, unless you have absolutely no preference geographically, once you have narrowed down to an area, the number of opportunities is far smaller than in the city.How many Post Offices does a rural community have, if in fact it even still has one?
soupdragon1 said:
I just don't quite get why ordinary people just don't bite the bullet and get out of the big cities and look at alternatives (caveat being, some people just love the city life too)
Because there are no jobs? We could move out of Sutton (Z5 Central London) and afford something real nice. BUT, my wife's salary would reduce by £4k per year and my travel costs would go up at least 50%. Houses might be cheaper, everything else costs the same AND we'd be taking a payout to move to something larger, even if it was more affordable all our other expenses would be the same and with a larger house might even increase.
If you're 100% self employed, can work remotely and don't need to commute at all OR can move and keep pay/travel the same then I guess it might work.
soupdragon1 said:
Absolutely, that's the point I was making. Relatively speaking, a large house doesn't cost a massive amount, the location is the driving factor.
And the wages are also relative. Kind of obvious, I know.
By the same token, if you're not tied to a certain area, its worth looking at alternatives. An ordinary couple, say with one working in the post office full time and one working as a postman full time, could afford a 4 bedroom detached without too much trouble. But if you do an entry level job like that in a big city, you've no chance of owning a typical 'family home' unless you take on a large commute.
I just don't quite get why ordinary people just don't bite the bullet and get out of the big cities and look at alternatives (caveat being, some people just love the city life too)
Absolutely agree. However if you are young and ambitious, London simply is the place to be. It is not only about the money, but about the possibilities for career progression, cutting edge work, and the fact that London is a fun and exciting place to live. And the wages are also relative. Kind of obvious, I know.
By the same token, if you're not tied to a certain area, its worth looking at alternatives. An ordinary couple, say with one working in the post office full time and one working as a postman full time, could afford a 4 bedroom detached without too much trouble. But if you do an entry level job like that in a big city, you've no chance of owning a typical 'family home' unless you take on a large commute.
I just don't quite get why ordinary people just don't bite the bullet and get out of the big cities and look at alternatives (caveat being, some people just love the city life too)
I'm 27 and moving to London - but I suspect that at 37 I may be looking to move back.
ashleyman said:
Because there are no jobs?
We could move out of Sutton (Z5 Central London) and afford something real nice. BUT, my wife's salary would reduce by £4k per year and my travel costs would go up at least 50%. Houses might be cheaper, everything else costs the same AND we'd be taking a payout to move to something larger, even if it was more affordable all our other expenses would be the same and with a larger house might even increase.
If you're 100% self employed, can work remotely and don't need to commute at all OR can move and keep pay/travel the same then I guess it might work.
Indeed. But then there are many sunnier climes within a few hours of London/civilisation by cheap flight preferable over NI that are just as reasonably priced.We could move out of Sutton (Z5 Central London) and afford something real nice. BUT, my wife's salary would reduce by £4k per year and my travel costs would go up at least 50%. Houses might be cheaper, everything else costs the same AND we'd be taking a payout to move to something larger, even if it was more affordable all our other expenses would be the same and with a larger house might even increase.
If you're 100% self employed, can work remotely and don't need to commute at all OR can move and keep pay/travel the same then I guess it might work.
Lord.Vader said:
I could (and would) retire on £950k up here and I'm only 30.
Curious as to how that would work in practice- your house 300k, broad brush assumption you buy two+ mor wiith the remainder of cash and rent them out? Which would obviously give you the job of managing property, which isn't guaranted cash or retiring- it's swapping the job you currently do for a different type of (self) employment. Or is there another way to drag 950k out over potentially 60 years?
Sheepshanks said:
Earthdweller said:
2500sq/ft plus garage
Interior finished to a very high standard but garden drive and garage need finishing ..
Paid £180k for it
We looked at building,, but found this, which is probably cheaper than cost of site and building it today
Was thinking about that, and the other one ("...just under 3000sq ft and costing only about £200k to build").Interior finished to a very high standard but garden drive and garage need finishing ..
Paid £180k for it
We looked at building,, but found this, which is probably cheaper than cost of site and building it today
I can't imagine the materials are cheaper there (maybe even dearer) and labour costs can't be much different. So are those build prices (especially yours - is it new?) remarkably low for one-off properies? Is there something about the construction that reduces the cost?
I’d estimate that to build and finish a new house you’d be looking at about £250k at today’s money when all costed out
Mine was sat in an acre of mud when I bought it
Internally it needs very little, maybe £4K mostly cosmetic and a few minor upgrades
To finish the garage, garden, driveway, fences and gates I’m looking at £15-20k max
So far spent £3k on landscaping, electric garage door and windows and side door plus electrics and lighting about £4K
Paving the drive is going to be about £5k +
Which when finished will be about £205k in total
At that point I’m reckoning it will be worth about £270k
Lots of houses sat for a long time after the crash either part built or builder finish. There are still some epic bargains to be had if you don’t need a mortgage as the banks are funny on lending on half finished houses
We were really looking to build, but this house came up and whilst not perfect ticked all our requirements, and worked out cheaper than building
Croutons said:
Lord.Vader said:
I could (and would) retire on £950k up here and I'm only 30.
Curious as to how that would work in practice- your house 300k, broad brush assumption you buy two+ mor wiith the remainder of cash and rent them out? Which would obviously give you the job of managing property, which isn't guaranted cash or retiring- it's swapping the job you currently do for a different type of (self) employment. Or is there another way to drag 950k out over potentially 60 years?
Integroo said:
Absolutely agree. However if you are young and ambitious, London simply is the place to be. It is not only about the money, but about the possibilities for career progression, cutting edge work, and the fact that London is a fun and exciting place to live.
I'm 27 and moving to London - but I suspect that at 37 I may be looking to move back.
Yes, totally get what you mean. It's a cool city, and next month I'm bringing the family for the weekend to do some sight seeing and watch the Lion King. Kids have never been to London, so I'm sure they'll love it, will check out all the famous landmarks etc.I'm 27 and moving to London - but I suspect that at 37 I may be looking to move back.
And as one of the world's leading cities, as you mention, plenty of prospects and a wealth of opportunity.
I just wonder to myself, for those on entry level jobs, it must be so hard to make ends meet, with property so expensive. I wonder why they don't consider doing that sort of job somewhere else for similar money and cheaper cost of living. I guess the other aspect is, some are happy to do that, its worth it to them, as they like the city life style.
Justayellowbadge said:
I guess, unless you have absolutely no preference geographically, once you have narrowed down to an area, the number of opportunities is far smaller than in the city.
How many Post Offices does a rural community have, if in fact it even still has one?
Good point! Unless you've a full time job close by, you'll need to run 2 cars unless you manage to get jobs locally, which may be a bit more difficult.How many Post Offices does a rural community have, if in fact it even still has one?
Sheepshanks said:
Was thinking about that, and the other one ("...just under 3000sq ft and costing only about £200k to build").
I can't imagine the materials are cheaper there (maybe even dearer) and labour costs can't be much different. So are those build prices (especially yours - is it new?) remarkably low for one-off properies? Is there something about the construction that reduces the cost?
I've built a new house 4 years ago and that type of construction will be a bit cheaper than a brick finish for example. Timber frame is popular in NI but versus a double block construction, there is no real difference in that respect. It cost more in material for timber frame inner skin v block inner, but you get that back in very lower labour costs. The skin is up in 2 days in a timber frame, versus a few weeks (weather dependant) for block.I can't imagine the materials are cheaper there (maybe even dearer) and labour costs can't be much different. So are those build prices (especially yours - is it new?) remarkably low for one-off properies? Is there something about the construction that reduces the cost?
The savings in this construction will be the render exterior. Outer skin is breezeblock then some render. Quicker than smaller brick, and cheaper overall. You'll find this finish everywhere in NI. Planning departments are reluctant to have an alternative finish as it's more in keeping with a typical countryside house so they like to keep any new houses very similar to what is already in existence in that particular area.
Shnozz said:
Indeed. But then there are many sunnier climes within a few hours of London/civilisation by cheap flight preferable over NI that are just as reasonably priced.
Brexit will severely reduce the ability of people to live/ work in such climes though.The PO in my mother’s village is quite famous for chewing up DFL looking to downsize. The PO stipend is small, and you have to run the place as a convenience store to try and make a living. The hours of which don’t reconcile with peoples dreams of an idyllic rural life.
FocusRS3 said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47368308
Found this interesting.
Only part of the Market making any cash by the looks of it but then it helps when you have the government in your pocket to the point you can build poor quality houses and get away with it and the tax payer footing a good part of the bill !
I hold no truck for Persimmon whatsoever, but the BBC does have it in for them. Whilst HTB most certainly helps (remember most new mortgages are first time buyers which drive the rest of the chain), it needs to be set against general market stagnation/low growth/brexit uncertainty/see this thread for further details etc. Found this interesting.
Only part of the Market making any cash by the looks of it but then it helps when you have the government in your pocket to the point you can build poor quality houses and get away with it and the tax payer footing a good part of the bill !
Edited by FocusRS3 on Tuesday 26th February 13:12
The principle driver for their profit (and relevant to recent posts on here) is their ability to build at between £450/500/m2 (so they boast off record).
To put that into context, for every £100 they save on each of the 7,970 houses they sold last year, they make an extra £7,970,000 profit. That's a couple of tubes of mastic and a little less cement in their mortar per property.
If you buy persimmon then you need to understand the level of cost cutting involved in their products. Not that the other big boys are much better!
Friend of mine is a floor layer and has done bits on a H2B build site. NONE of the work he has done was floor laying. Lots of plaster boarding, tiling, fitting kitchens. He's a floor layer.
Another friend of mine is an electrician. He told me he was fitting toilets one day.
I've even experienced it, a friend needed someone to drive a forklift for a week moving materials off the lorry and onto the build site. He's a landscape gardener, I helped him out. It's a bit different as it was landscaping but I drove the forklift, helped out with spreading some materials with a dumper and even wacked a few finished sections for him. Nobody checked I had any licenses, skills or documents. My induction to the site was a 2 minute chat with the foreman where he pretty much said, don't kill yourself and if I ask you to wear a hard hat it's because the boss is coming. Break is at 10, lunch is at 1. Off you go.
This is all within the last 3 months this has happened. It's a complete joke!
Another friend of mine is an electrician. He told me he was fitting toilets one day.
I've even experienced it, a friend needed someone to drive a forklift for a week moving materials off the lorry and onto the build site. He's a landscape gardener, I helped him out. It's a bit different as it was landscaping but I drove the forklift, helped out with spreading some materials with a dumper and even wacked a few finished sections for him. Nobody checked I had any licenses, skills or documents. My induction to the site was a 2 minute chat with the foreman where he pretty much said, don't kill yourself and if I ask you to wear a hard hat it's because the boss is coming. Break is at 10, lunch is at 1. Off you go.
This is all within the last 3 months this has happened. It's a complete joke!
ben5575 said:
Yes but that's profiteering, not Help To Buy. See above maths for why (literally) every penny saved = £80 profit. That's some incentive to cut corners!
I get the maths, I'm just saying in regards to the actual build quality and the experiences I've had with tradesmen friends working on the builds. Why would you get a floor layer in to do a job someone else could do. I think he also mentioned about fitting a lift shaft. Probably because they're cheaper yes, but then a floor layer fitting a lift or some plumbing, dodgy!With these big companies with lots of parts and people, every little helps. Volkswagen stopped including the ISOFIX covers in new cars, 4 per vehicle, 1 million cars a year produced at 5p a pop is £4 mil.
ashleyman said:
I get the maths, I'm just saying in regards to the actual build quality and the experiences I've had with tradesmen friends working on the builds. Why would you get a floor layer in to do a job someone else could do. I think he also mentioned about fitting a lift shaft. Probably because they're cheaper yes, but then a floor layer fitting a lift or some plumbing, dodgy!
With these big companies with lots of parts and people, every little helps. Volkswagen stopped including the ISOFIX covers in new cars, 4 per vehicle, 1 million cars a year produced at 5p a pop is £4 mil.
Do you get the maths?With these big companies with lots of parts and people, every little helps. Volkswagen stopped including the ISOFIX covers in new cars, 4 per vehicle, 1 million cars a year produced at 5p a pop is £4 mil.
4 x 5p is 20p.
A million times that is £200,000 not £4 million.
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