How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[kingston12]

ooid said:

It does look beautiful but I'm really wondering, how that area is in terms of life and work? I mean, that price would get you a really decent "house" in east london, near to all central areas within tube connections.

It's two totally discrete markets, though. The market for that place in Cobham would be locals, either recent divorcees wanting to stay near the kids or older people downsizing from a much larger house.

I can't imagine many of them looking in east London, although appreciate some might do.

This one seems overpriced anyway, for the reasons Tonker mentions.

Edited by kingston12 on Wednesday 13th March 12:04

[2gins]

Just a frustrated rant from me here, you guys talking of -20% and more in London, great for you but its not happening where I'm looking, albeit I'm at a different level (£550k thereabouts).

Our benchmark is these, which we looked at seriously in 2014 but decided that everyone moving out had 2 kids and had run out of space so we were looking at a 5-10 year tenure. 5 years on its not an option anymore on practicalities but even if it were, Christ alive:

Baseline, would have been about £590 fully done up in 2013, maybe £625 with the loft done as well. (Edit to add, might have come down from £700k ask recently)
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Now:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
It's a 3-bed end of terrace with a loft room, wrong end of the wrong end of town with poor transport links and next to no local amenities.

I swear this went on at ~700k previously, now at £600k having re-listed 6 weeks ago.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

One sold at 700 this time last year, a few more in 2017.

A bit further out it looks like a bit of a bloodbath. I have a personal interest in this one:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

In 2016 we got an offer accepted on the adjoining property (the one with the garage). Went on in April '16 at £620k, reduced to 605k and went under offer at £600 in June. Fell through late June, no idea why but can take a good guess; we became aware of it at the point it was relisted at 585. Made trhe sellers wait weeks for our offer as we needed to see the local school, which was shut for holidays. They didn't like that and by the time we put our offer of 550 in they were screaming for it. Settled at 562 because we wanted it, only for them to sit tight as they lost their chain. Said they'd rent to keep it moving but then went back on their word. Deal fell apart in December, they then found a buyer at £600 so good for them. Nest door went on last year some time at 550, with no garage and little potential to extend which suggests we weren't far off the mark with our offer. Now at 500 and not going anywhere.

Godalming, another one of out favoured 'not London' areas, also looks to be taking a bit of a cold bath.

Just not the areas we now need to move in!

Edited by 2gins on Wednesday 13th March 14:54

[V6Alfisti]

2gins said:

Just a frustrated rant from me here, you guys talking of -20% and more in London, great for you but its not happening where I'm looking, albeit I'm at a different level (£550k thereabouts).

Our benchmark is these, which we looked at seriously in 2014 but decided that everyone moving out had 2 kids and had run out of space so we were looking at a 5-10 year tenure. 5 years on its not an option anymore on practicalities but even if it were, Christ alive:

Baseline, would have been about £590 fully done up in 2014, maybe £625 with the loft done as well.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Now:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
It's a 3-bed end of terrace with a loft room, wrong end of the wrong end of town with poor transport links and next to no local amenities.

I swear this went on at 700k previously, not at £600k having re-listed 6 weeks ago.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

One sold at 700 this time last year, a few more in 2017.

A bit further out it looks like a bit of a bloodbath. I have a personal interest in this one:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

In 2016 we got an offer accepted on the adjoining property (the one with the garage). Went on in April '16 at £620k, reduced to 605k and went under offer at £600 in June. Fell through late June, no idea why but can take a good guess; we became aware of it at the point it was relisted at 585. Made trhe sellers wait weeks for our offer as we needed to see the local school, which was shut for holidays. They didn't like that and by the time we put our offer of 550 in they were screaming for it. Settled at 562 because we wanted it, only for them to sit tight as they lost their chain. Said they'd rent to keep it moving but then went back on their word. Deal fell apart in December, they then found a buyer at £600 so good for them. Nest door went on last year some time at 550, with no garage and little potential to extend which suggests we weren't far off the mark with our offer. Now at 500 and not going anywhere.

Godalming, another one of out favoured 'not London' areas, also looks to be taking a bit of a cold bath.

Just not the areas we now need to move in!

Whilst not the same level, the TW2 6 post code for those kind of houses seem to be in/around their mid to late 2015 values. So whilst not as impacted as London certainly, it has taken a hit. I bet even the 500k properties that were sold in Q3/4 of 2018 have already rolled back 10k or so if they were to be relisted/sold.

I think this one would probably go for about £630k ish based on some of the variances I have seen between similarly sold properties in 2015 vs 2018/19 i.e about £10-15k over its 2015 sold values

"Baseline, would have been about £590 fully done up in 2014, maybe £625 with the loft done as well.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop... "

Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 13th March 15:07

[GM182]

All this chat of chains failing, price drops etc is making me nervous.

Our selling price is 50% over 2009 levels and our buying price on a bigger house five miles away is only 15% above. Outer London surburbs and the area we're moving to is clearly better, even though it's further out.

I'm hoping it all hangs together...

[FocusRS3]

GM182 said:

All this chat of chains failing, price drops etc is making me nervous.

Our selling price is 50% over 2009 levels and our buying price on a bigger house five miles away is only 15% above. Outer London surburbs and the area we're moving to is clearly better, even though it's further out.

I'm hoping it all hangs together...

Hope you get lucky but that spread seems to wide to me for it to work. I think maybe the wide spread is telling you something although as i said i hope u get lucky

[Thankyou4calling]

The Tw2 places really are a long way from Twickenham centre, as was commented few amenities too.

In the hierarchy of towns I’d put Teddington above Twickenham, nicer shops, bushy park on the doorstep and still near the river.

Property in TW2 can still sell fast, the value is on the DERA estate off the Chertsey road, it’s very isolated but £600k will get you a 3 bed detached albeit with an external bannister for the previous geriatric resident.

There are always a couple for sale and they tend to be snapped up by people who have looked at TW1 and found you need a million for a similar square footage and no parking.

[GM182]

FocusRS3 said:

GM182 said:

All this chat of chains failing, price drops etc is making me nervous.

Our selling price is 50% over 2009 levels and our buying price on a bigger house five miles away is only 15% above. Outer London surburbs and the area we're moving to is clearly better, even though it's further out.

I'm hoping it all hangs together...

Hope you get lucky but that spread seems to wide to me for it to work. I think maybe the wide spread is telling you something although as i said i hope u get lucky

I think us having several sellers in our street with over-valued houses on the market makes ours look reasonable and the place we're buying presents pretty poorly plus a bit of decent negotiation makes me think I have winkled out a good move. Actually, I should also factor in that ours is more or less move-in condition while our purchase needs total re-dec plus new kitchen.

[FocusRS3]

GM182 said:

I think us having several sellers in our street with over-valued houses on the market makes ours look reasonable and the place we're buying presents pretty poorly plus a bit of decent negotiation makes me think I have winkled out a good move. Actually, I should also factor in that ours is more or less move-in condition while our purchase needs total re-dec plus new kitchen.

That does help.......

If u snare a buyer dont hang about, i've seen houses in my old road some on cheaper than my one was and i'd have bought those over mine. We lucked out

[dom9]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Tonks, owe you an email but currently in Milan and struggling to catch up when I'm home. If you're genuinely interested in Godalming, my (architect) Dad is worth chatting to (and would be happy to)... I grew up there and his (literally his) company designed the waitrose, homebase, so on and so forth... so he knows all the developers, planners, etc and has been dealing with them for the last 50 (?!) years. Maybe more. How am I now 40?

As for that house on Steels Lane (our current/ last 4yrs) stomping ground... seems pricey. Very, very little available in the 0.25miles radius we look in though, so I guess if you want to be there... We'll be staying there forever, for those who think East London may be an alternative

[GM182]

FocusRS3 said:

GM182 said:

I think us having several sellers in our street with over-valued houses on the market makes ours look reasonable and the place we're buying presents pretty poorly plus a bit of decent negotiation makes me think I have winkled out a good move. Actually, I should also factor in that ours is more or less move-in condition while our purchase needs total re-dec plus new kitchen.

That does help.......

If u snare a buyer dont hang about, i've seen houses in my old road some on cheaper than my one was and i'd have bought those over mine. We lucked out

Yes, I'm off home now to make sure everything looks good for surveyor tomorrow!

[number2]

V6Alfisti said:

Some strong views to follow, but hopefully helpful. (Obviously it will depend on how the property has been priced/where it is e.t.c)

IMO offering just 6% below asking, is verging on generous. The other 6% price drop is irrelevant and simply means it was overpriced. In some parts of London, prices have fallen 30% and still taking offers at 10-15% below that. Painful but true.

Also the point about the vendor not getting enough money to make their next purchase, frankly not your concern. It's like someone asking £5k for a £3k car because they only have £4k in the bank and need to buy a £9k car....not your problem.

I wholly agree with you. Frustrating situation. Heard nothing from the agent since Friday so I assume there's no movement.

The time passed has allowed me to change position as well - I doubt I'd consider the risk of this chain so it wouldn't be happening for me.

[princeperch]

To quote another property professional (who doesn't post on this thread but is vocal elsewhere), east London, (specifically where I live around Stratford / Leyton) is a 'grubby st hole' (I'm fairly certain that was the turn of phrase used).

Quite frankly I'd throw myself under a train if I had to do the commute some of my colleagues do , who only end up with marginally larger houses (albeit normally much larger gardens) than me and the other scumbags who live here have.

Perception is everything though, and I appreciate that there has been a lot in the news about criminality in London. If you work in London but want to spend half of your life on then train then fair enough move out to nowheres ville. Not for me though.

[FocusRS3]

Last nights vote tight on leaving with it without a deal and the no doubt continued uncertainty of what happens if/when we get a long extension will only add to the housing market woes.

Hammond’s growth forecast y’day also spells troubling times ahead for the top end of the market regardless if we leave without a deal as the EU ain’t bugling and a long stop extension, if they allow it, will just drag on the uncertainty.

Good luck to those trying to sell

Edited by FocusRS3 on Thursday 14th March 12:47

[kingston12]

GM182 said:

All this chat of chains failing, price drops etc is making me nervous.

Our selling price is 50% over 2009 levels and our buying price on a bigger house five miles away is only 15% above. Outer London surburbs and the area we're moving to is clearly better, even though it's further out.

I'm hoping it all hangs together...

I hope it all works out. Sound like a great move based on those numbers alone.

All the talk of ‘better areas’ on this thread is always going to be a bit ambiguous given different people will look for different things, but you’ll be doing well if the type of area you want to move to is relatively undervalued compared to where you currently are.

Edited by kingston12 on Thursday 14th March 07:39

[kingston12]

princeperch said:

To quote another property professional (who doesn't post on this thread but is vocal elsewhere), east London, (specifically where I live around Stratford / Leyton) is a 'grubby st hole' (I'm fairly certain that was the turn of phrase used).

Quite frankly I'd throw myself under a train if I had to do the commute some of my colleagues do , who only end up with marginally larger houses (albeit normally much larger gardens) than me and the other scumbags who live here have.

Perception is everything though, and I appreciate that there has been a lot in the news about criminality in London. If you work in London but want to spend half of your life on then train then fair enough move out to nowheres ville. Not for me though.

There was an article in the Evening Standard a couple of weeks ago highlighting some pitiful ‘analysis’ that has been put together by Savills, but the one thing it did say that is definitely true is that the British love being snobbish and generalising about areas.

It’s clearly ridiculous to categorise east London as a single area. I know it reasonably well, and there are plenty of places I’d be very happy living, as well as a lot I’d really hate.

That is the same everywhere. There’s a comment above about Teddington being better than Twickenham. I’d agree in general, but there are parts of the latter I’d definitely prefer to the former.

The best thing is to find an area that suffers from a negative reputation, but live in a good part of it. Even that doesn’t get as good a deal these days, as there do seem to be a good minority of people who ignore postcode now.

[princeperch]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Nope we have a son. I'd be quite happy to send him to any of the local primary schools , the one round the corner is outstanding. Secondary schools are ok but I hope in the ten years between now and when he goes there will be improvements there..

[2gins]

Thankyou4calling said:

The Tw2 places really are a long way from Twickenham centre, as was commented few amenities too.

In the hierarchy of towns I’d put Teddington above Twickenham, nicer shops, bushy park on the doorstep and still near the river.

Property in TW2 can still sell fast, the value is on the DERA estate off the Chertsey road, it’s very isolated but £600k will get you a 3 bed detached albeit with an external bannister for the previous geriatric resident.

There are always a couple for sale and they tend to be snapped up by people who have looked at TW1 and found you need a million for a similar square footage and no parking.

I'd agree with most of that and would prefer Teddington but the school is East Twickenham (or will be when its built next year) so those areas while giving better value are going to be too remote the school run to work. I don't know what we're going to end up doing to be honest. If East Twickenham takes a 50% hit we could possibly flog the flat and use the equity to buy in there, but I'd rather take the flexibility that long term rental income gives.

[ooid]

princeperch said:

Nope we have a son. I'd be quite happy to send him to any of the local primary schools , the one round the corner is outstanding. Secondary schools are ok but I hope in the ten years between now and when he goes there will be improvements there..

I could not agree more. Really do not understand the "scare" level of London or mostly east london. I mean looking at some of the prices on these south east areas, they doo look super over-priced imho. I would definitely like to have a much bigger space outside London, but with marginally the same size/conditions can't see the reason of massive commutes. In terms of school, I'm a product of state and later private school and now turned out be an senior level academic in higher education. I totally understand parents would love their kids to be in the best place ever, but most of the state-funded schools have great young educators and could benefit from realistic life exposures at earlier age.

[kingston12]

ooid said:

I could not agree more. Really do not understand the "scare" level of London or mostly east london. I mean looking at some of the prices on these south east areas, they doo look super over-priced imho. I would definitely like to have a much bigger space outside London, but with marginally the same size/conditions can't see the reason of massive commutes. In terms of school, I'm a product of state and later private school and now turned out be an senior level academic in higher education. I totally understand parents would love their kids to be in the best place ever, but most of the state-funded schools have great young educators and could benefit from realistic life exposures at earlier age.

It mainly comes down to the perception of people who have never spent much time there. I know a lot of people who treat London as one homogenous zone so when they hear about the latest knife crime they seem to assume that it happens everywhere in London all the time, which couldn't be further from the truth.

That's then combined with outdated views from people who visited east London 25 years ago when it was quite different.

The funniest one I have experienced were some friends who kindly expressed concern for my safety at the time of the 2011 riots. I live in Surbiton (not even really London by most definitions), but they seemed to think I was battened down in the middle of a warzone, based on what they were seeing in the media. Unsurprisingly, I saw nothing going on at all, either in outer or central London.

[ooid]

kingston12 said:

The funniest one I have experienced were some friends who kindly expressed concern for my safety at the time of the 2011 riots. I live in Surbiton (not even really London by most definitions), but they seemed to think I was battened down in the middle of a warzone, based on what they were seeing in the media. Unsurprisingly, I saw nothing going on at all, either in outer or central London.

Yeah, I used to live in Clerkenwell during the riots. I've heard they seen some semi-scary actions near London fields but personally have not seen anything major like in the news. There are probably some dangerous moments or situations of course but I think most of the time the "urban life" experience is a bit over-blown. Anyway, lets hope these vibes keep the east prices modest