How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[Sheepshanks]

I'm sensing you get somewhat over excited by every piece of negative sentiment.

[V6Alfisti]

Sheepshanks said:

I'm sensing you get somewhat over excited by every piece of negative sentiment.

Not really but this thread is related to house price falls isn't it? There isn't really much upside to share in London at the moment. Also sentiment relates to a feeling, whilst these are factual numbers and statements from the ONS.

I personally think that near 50% drops in annual sales across parts of London, and a statement from the ONS saying that we haven't seen this behaviour/pricing trend in London since 2009 are rather relevant facts to share.

People moan when asking prices are visibly lower but not yet converted is sold values, then moan when they come through in the ONS sold values and then moan when trends are spotted and observed by the ONS.

I am sensing you don't really like to see what is happening in the market, and would like more positive sentiment that doesn't reflect the reality of what is happening. I would suggest heading to the BBC News page.

[Rovinghawk]

V6Alfisti said:

I am sensing you don't really like to see what is happening in the market, and would like more positive sentiment that doesn't reflect the reality of what is happening.

In which case one could look at the housing market outside the London area.

[Sheepshanks]

V6Alfisti said:

I am sensing you don't really like to see what is happening in the market, and would like more positive sentiment that doesn't reflect the reality of what is happening.

No, I don't care to be honest. I just like browsing PH and you're making this thread very boring by posting the same information over and over. Everyone with an interest in the London market knows very well what's happening without you telling them. And, as Tonker has pointed out before, no one outside the SE cares.

I know you have an agenda to drive down prices in London, but I don't think you're going to achieve that by posting here. You may as well post a blank space.

[V6Alfisti]

Rovinghawk said:

In which case one could look at the housing market outside the London area.

Absolutely, if someone has an interest in those areas they should do so. My input is clearly London focussed as that's my point of interest.

[V6Alfisti]

Sheepshanks said:

No, I don't care to be honest. I just like browsing PH and you're making this thread very boring by posting the same information over and over. Everyone with an interest in the London market knows very well what's happening without you telling them. And, as Tonker has pointed out before, no one outside the SE cares.

I know you have an agenda to drive down prices in London, but I don't think you're going to achieve that by posting here. You may as well post a blank space.

I am making it very boring by posting the latest detail/progress against the intent of the thread for a key area of interest to many?

This thread if you haven't noticed is full of people (not just me) talking about the London market, my input relates to the external facts in that market. There is a reason for that, it got incredibly overheated and is/was at totally barmy levels.

If you really think that I believe posting here will accelerate the London falls, then you are very much mistaken. I am sure a sub section of News, Politics and Economics within a car based forum called Pistonheads is not going to change the face of UK Housing policy. The market is doing that by itself, I am merely sharing the facts that relate to the post for those that are interested.

If you don't want to talk about specific markets, London, sold values, trends or what is being seen in those markets. What do you suggest should be posted here? We could diverge off for 6 pages talking about X's interest in buying in y, or a few pages about the drivers and long term macroecominc policy/relation to interest rate changes but none of that is hugely relevant/the right place given the subject.

Again my question, what do you post/expect to see posted here that is more relevant to the subject?

Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 15th August 13:42

[stongle]

V6Alfisti said:

This is also a nice overview of Societe General global strategists view on the market http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/uk-housing-mark...

Albert Edwards, the bear's super bear.

He actually goes on to say that Helicopter money will (probably) become a real thing to keep the party going. I thing he referenced Central Banks should have been taking away the "punch bowl"; but most of the country (and its leadership) has been at the bong water for a while so somethings gotta change.

I tend to agree with the root cause; but the doomsday scenario is so bleak; the "can will get kicked further down the road". Coming off the crack of QE / Monetary stimulus will / could be a 30, 40 year exercise. Eliminating the perceived household wealth (equity) of a consumer led economy is bad for everyone.

On the current toolkit, the aggregate outlook for house prices is poor - but I suspect their is plenty up May's Wizard's cuff if we need it (a non-monteray response similar to Draghi's "Big Bazooka", oh-err)

[V6Alfisti]

stongle said:

Albert Edwards, the bear's super bear.

He actually goes on to say that Helicopter money will (probably) become a real thing to keep the party going. I thing he referenced Central Banks should have been taking away the "punch bowl"; but most of the country (and its leadership) has been at the bong water for a while so somethings gotta change.

I tend to agree with the root cause; but the doomsday scenario is so bleak; the "can will get kicked further down the road". Coming off the crack of QE / Monetary stimulus will / could be a 30, 40 year exercise. Eliminating the perceived household wealth (equity) of a consumer led economy is bad for everyone.

On the current toolkit, the aggregate outlook for house prices is poor - but I suspect their is plenty up May's Wizard's cuff if we need it (a non-monteray response similar to Draghi's "Big Bazooka", oh-err)

What is Albert Edwards past/experience/behaviours? as you seem to recognise him.

What do you think they could pull out of the hat? As most of May's recent behaviour has seemingly calmed the housing market more than inflated it, i.e tightening up on BTL with change in taxation/controls, changing the stamp duty framework and increasing interest rates (although that's a BOE decision rather than gov).

Given how far things have changed already, why wouldn't May have already implemented the cuff based tricks? I have heard some fairly crazy ideas being floated by ministers but they don't appear to have any steam and after HTB folk are rather more sceptical/vocal about the expected underlying drivers.

I don't disagree that the gov has intervened heavily in the last 10 years to inflate house prices, but they seem less inclined to (from what I have seen) now given the shift of voting power moving more to the young folk.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 15th August 14:08

[V6Alfisti]

zubzob said:

I guess different people read the thread for different reasons.

My choice would be, one nominated person to post any significant updates, with a brief synopsis. Acceptable sources include ONS for lagging, RICS for leading. At discretion, the odd Savilles reprt or hometrack for cities for flavour.

Then a panel of 4 democratically elected posters can make a brief 200 word response to the release.

All other posts are banned.

Or we could just let people post whatever they want. Either works for me.

I am with the latter, but some people appear to be quite frustrated with the fact that certain posted post about the market they know.

[ooid]

V6Alfisti,

When you look at stats and data, they might not be correct for everyone. By looking at those figures (London, Tower Hamlets), I should be having a laugh but I'm not. Been looking to buy a house (Selling my flat) actively for the last few months, but as I mentioned before three of the houses I've seen so far (quite good value to be honest), been sold immediately. So, some specific areas are still hot. Having commuted before through SouthWest and other crappy Anglia lines, I would really have no intention to buy anything outside of London or the sleepy suburbs.

I'm hoping some of your stats would come through to my end beacuse if the world is still standing in the next few months, I have no intention to leave London (or U.K.).

[V6Alfisti]

ooid said:

V6Alfisti,

When you look at stats and data, they might not be correct for everyone. By looking at those figures (London, Tower Hamlets), I should be having a laugh but I'm not. Been looking to buy a house (Selling my flat) actively for the last few months, but as I mentioned before three of the houses I've seen so far (quite good value to be honest), been sold immediately. So, some specific areas are still hot. Having commuted before through SouthWest and other crappy Anglia lines, I would really have no intention to buy anything outside of London or the sleepy suburbs.

I'm hoping some of your stats would come through to my end beacuse if the world is still standing in the next few months, I have no intention to leave London (or U.K.).

Absolutely, there are sub markets in markets. That has been touched on a few times, those figures from external bodies that hold all the data are simply averages for a borough, and also clearly not my numbers but people know their own streets/areas better than anyone else on here I suspect!. There is also quite clearly a greater emphasis on flat value falling but homes remaining a tad more resilient. Some areas have dropped much more than those figures, some the opposite - the joy of averages.

Not sure why you think anyone is pushing you to leave London or the UK? Sorry, you lost me on that one.

[limpsfield]

V6Alfisti said:

What is Albert Edwards past/experience/behaviours? as you seem to recognise him.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 15th August 14:08

Famously bearish on nearly everything nearly all the time. famously wrong nearly all the time.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=albert+edwards+b...

Very occasionally right.

https://www.ft.com/content/4e50c196-6e11-11e7-bfeb...

"Mention the name Albert Edwards, a rather well-known investment strategist at Société Générale in London and the reaction of readers and/or market competitors is as predictable as the man’s perma-bear reputation: he’s a “stopped clock”, the man who “correctly predicted the last recession 18 times” and so on, questioning — “Why does anyone listen to him.”"

[Rovinghawk]

V6Alfisti said:

If you don't want to talk about specific markets, London, sold values, trends or what is being seen in those markets. What do you suggest should be posted here?

How about the 80% of the market that isn't London?

Given the figures posted earlier, how about the 90% of actual sales that are outside London?

V6Alfisti said:

Again my question, what do you post/expect to see posted here that is more relevant to the subject?

See above.

[V6Alfisti]

Rovinghawk said:

V6Alfisti said:

If you don't want to talk about specific markets, London, sold values, trends or what is being seen in those markets. What do you suggest should be posted here?

How about the 80% of the market that isn't London?

Given the figures posted earlier, how about the 90% of actual sales that are outside London?

V6Alfisti said:

Again my question, what do you post/expect to see posted here that is more relevant to the subject?

See above.

So why don't you do that instead of moaning at people that post for other areas?

Sorry to be harsh but you can't expect someone with no interest in the remaining markets to spend their time breaking down the whole of the UK ! When I post a link to external data, if you open it up you will see that they do actually cover the entirety of the UK, Halifax/Nationwide/ONS/ACADATA are all nationwide data sets.

[gibbon]

Whos going to be in charge of posting half recalled anecdotes about their mates mates plumber who once commited mortgage fraud 7.3 years ago, thus clearly demonstrating no one can afford houses / flats / garages / sheds / paper bags in london?

[V6Alfisti]

limpsfield said:

Famously bearish on nearly everything nearly all the time. famously wrong nearly all the time.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=albert+edwards+b...

Very occasionally right.

https://www.ft.com/content/4e50c196-6e11-11e7-bfeb...

"Mention the name Albert Edwards, a rather well-known investment strategist at Société Générale in London and the reaction of readers and/or market competitors is as predictable as the man’s perma-bear reputation: he’s a “stopped clock”, the man who “correctly predicted the last recession 18 times” and so on, questioning — “Why does anyone listen to him.”"

Ah got it, never heard of the guy. He is perhaps jumping on the bandwagon here then given the data is clearly going one way for large parts of London.

He clearly isn't the only economist/bank/UK housing specialist in the country to be raising the red flag this time. I am hoping he is wrong that another round of QE could be quite as effective next time given the low bar we are currently at vs 2008.

[V6Alfisti]

gibbon said:

Whos going to be in charge of posting half recalled anecdotes about their mates mates plumber who once commited mortgage fraud 7.3 years ago, thus clearly demonstrating no one can afford houses / flats / garages / sheds / paper bags in london?

and those that add no value but just moan about others contributions.

Clearly the message of the encounter didn't get across to you, that wasn't a point about how no-one can afford housing but how people were massively extending themselves/providing fictitious salaries to buy 'Extra large' compared to their salary/ability to repay on the assumption that house prices would rise.

Then there are of course a large body of people on average salaries that cannot afford to live somewhere modest in London, I would be surprised if you disagreed with that, but it wouldn't surprise if you did.

This is clearly a risky part of the market that people don't often see/recognise, and hence a previous point about 'how could a 0.25%" effect market drive or existing holders. That's part of the answer.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 15th August 14:49

[gibbon]

V6Alfisti said:

and those that add no value but just moan about others contributions.

Clearly the message of the encounter didn't get across to you, that wasn't a point about how no-one can afford housing but how people were massively extending themselves/providing fictitious salaries to buy 'Extra large' compared to their salary/ability to repay on the assumption that house prices would rise.

This is clearly a risky part of the market that people don't often see/recognise.

editted as i cant be bothered.

Carry on mate.

[V6Alfisti]

gibbon said:

editted as i cant be bothered.

Carry on mate.

Good-o, ditto.

[stongle]

V6Alfisti said:

What is Albert Edwards past/experience/behaviours? as you seem to recognise him.

What do you think they could pull out of the hat? As most of May's recent behaviour has seemingly calmed the housing market more than inflated it, i.e tightening up on BTL with change in taxation/controls, changing the stamp duty framework and increasing interest rates (although that's a BOE decision rather than gov).

Given how far things have changed already, why wouldn't May have already implemented the cuff based tricks? I have heard some fairly crazy ideas being floated by ministers but they don't appear to have any steam and after HTB folk are rather more sceptical/vocal about the expected underlying drivers.

I don't disagree that the gov has intervened heavily in the last 10 years to inflate house prices, but they seem less inclined to (from what I have seen) now given the shift of voting power moving more to the young folk.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 15th August 14:08

With thanks to Limpsfield for explaining whom Albert is.

In short Monetary policy is pretty much done on economy steering. The last time the G7 Central Banks got together, they wanted to hand the torch of to someone (anyone) else. We're so far down the chuff of loosening, QE etc; its just free money to go. The problem in the UK market is VERY much BREXIT influenced and dependency on foreign money. The game bag is full of tools to keep the foreign money (and firms business etc) coming in; not only in London BUT regionally too. Some of the options are pretty Nuclear (think Corporation Tax, Fiscal policy and Sovereign Investment) - but they are ALL doable and preferable to any house price collapse.