How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
FocusRS3 said:
Over the last 18 months I've noticed how prices on property has been reduced in my area.
My road is all very individual houses, expensive area with great commuter links into London and will be right at the Hub of Crossrail when it starts. One poor bloke has been trying to sell his house for over 2yrs now and hasn't had a single offer.
When the housing mkt is Bid you never see a 'For Sale', in our road but right now there are plenty
Shenfield?My road is all very individual houses, expensive area with great commuter links into London and will be right at the Hub of Crossrail when it starts. One poor bloke has been trying to sell his house for over 2yrs now and hasn't had a single offer.
When the housing mkt is Bid you never see a 'For Sale', in our road but right now there are plenty
Dicky Knee said:
Shenfield?
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Yes Shenfield. Tonker- TBF he's had a ton of foot traffic but hasn't secured anything. Slightly 'awkward' house in terms of its road positioning but many houses in this area used to sell very much under the radar.
It does need work so maybe he needs to factor that in a little more but i'd not say he's pricing was ludicrous given what else sells in that area
stongle said:
Eh? Pensions won’t save working age people will it. JP is the single biggest private sector employer.
And the rest is usual NPE opinion.
Anyhoo, in my area of London we had the lowest reduction in sales; but seems to be softening. Near Neighbour had SSTC 3bed semi needs refurb at 680 (Fulham we are not), but just been remarketed as buyers pulled out. Not ideal as I might have to sell as we are reviewing non UK locations for our business (FS, but we’re looking for a base outside Europe so I’m on the wrong side of a regional arbitrage).
To back up my view that this issue is much greater in London & SE it is worth looking at the RICS Housing Market Survey which gives a clear correlation to prices in six months time.And the rest is usual NPE opinion.
Anyhoo, in my area of London we had the lowest reduction in sales; but seems to be softening. Near Neighbour had SSTC 3bed semi needs refurb at 680 (Fulham we are not), but just been remarketed as buyers pulled out. Not ideal as I might have to sell as we are reviewing non UK locations for our business (FS, but we’re looking for a base outside Europe so I’m on the wrong side of a regional arbitrage).
Here is the UK;
Contrast that to London;
and then to a region, in this case the East Midlands;
To me, the issue is quality of stock, and supply.
Commuter belt, cheek to jowl, sprawling, traffic ridden and infrastructure starved suburban developer mess will end up tanking hard imho. Its just a derivative market of central london, but with the added issues of crappy and expensive trains and lack of base desire for the asset. You have to think back to actually what you are buying. Currently the derivative london housing market is just lagging behind, as it always does.
A good flat or family home in a period building in a good bit of london will weather the storm better, rebound quick and ultimately be more desirable than oversupplied 'commodity' central flats or ten a penny suburban homes.
There is a school of thought that says if we go hard brexit, then one of the only options left for UK PLC is to go full nuclear on welcoming foreign business, investment and money. This will sadly just create more wealth divide that brexiters so wanted to erode. Guess what, London will go bid again.
Its one of many scenarios, really we have no idea what will happen yet, im just struggling to think of a single scenario in all this where places in suburban commuter town uk or provincial uk village / town go bid, i can see how London would remain / increase desirability though.
Commuter belt, cheek to jowl, sprawling, traffic ridden and infrastructure starved suburban developer mess will end up tanking hard imho. Its just a derivative market of central london, but with the added issues of crappy and expensive trains and lack of base desire for the asset. You have to think back to actually what you are buying. Currently the derivative london housing market is just lagging behind, as it always does.
A good flat or family home in a period building in a good bit of london will weather the storm better, rebound quick and ultimately be more desirable than oversupplied 'commodity' central flats or ten a penny suburban homes.
There is a school of thought that says if we go hard brexit, then one of the only options left for UK PLC is to go full nuclear on welcoming foreign business, investment and money. This will sadly just create more wealth divide that brexiters so wanted to erode. Guess what, London will go bid again.
Its one of many scenarios, really we have no idea what will happen yet, im just struggling to think of a single scenario in all this where places in suburban commuter town uk or provincial uk village / town go bid, i can see how London would remain / increase desirability though.
gibbon said:
To me, the issue is quality of stock, and supply.
Commuter belt, cheek to jowl, sprawling, traffic ridden and infrastructure starved suburban developer mess will end up tanking hard imho. Its just a derivative market of central london, but with the added issues of crappy and expensive trains and lack of base desire for the asset. You have to think back to actually what you are buying. Currently the derivative london housing market is just lagging behind, as it always does.
A good flat or family home in a period building in a good bit of london will weather the storm better, rebound quick and ultimately be more desirable than oversupplied 'commodity' central flats or ten a penny suburban homes.
There is a school of thought that says if we go hard brexit, then one of the only options left for UK PLC is to go full nuclear on welcoming foreign business, investment and money. This will sadly just create more wealth divide that brexiters so wanted to erode. Guess what, London will go bid again.
Its one of many scenarios, really we have no idea what will happen yet, im just struggling to think of a single scenario in all this where places in suburban commuter town uk or provincial uk village / town go bid, i can see how London would remain / increase desirability though.
I see where you are coming from but I respectfully disagree.Commuter belt, cheek to jowl, sprawling, traffic ridden and infrastructure starved suburban developer mess will end up tanking hard imho. Its just a derivative market of central london, but with the added issues of crappy and expensive trains and lack of base desire for the asset. You have to think back to actually what you are buying. Currently the derivative london housing market is just lagging behind, as it always does.
A good flat or family home in a period building in a good bit of london will weather the storm better, rebound quick and ultimately be more desirable than oversupplied 'commodity' central flats or ten a penny suburban homes.
There is a school of thought that says if we go hard brexit, then one of the only options left for UK PLC is to go full nuclear on welcoming foreign business, investment and money. This will sadly just create more wealth divide that brexiters so wanted to erode. Guess what, London will go bid again.
Its one of many scenarios, really we have no idea what will happen yet, im just struggling to think of a single scenario in all this where places in suburban commuter town uk or provincial uk village / town go bid, i can see how London would remain / increase desirability though.
The problem with London is that an influx of external capital has driven values far above any normal level. As we are seeing in similar markets around the world (Sydney, Vancouver, New York), tighter restrictions on capital flows, more regulation on lending and an inflexion point in interest rates means that the fundamental driver of values, namely affordability, has finally become important again.
As other say above, once confidence of a rising market disappears, volumes drop hard and then there is a price adjustment.
In terms of what values will be in the future, you do have to do a Lloyd Grossman from the 1980's and say "who would live in a house like this" and think about what they earn and what equity they might have built up and/or inherited.
Fundamentally, London is very seriously overvalued. Certainly a Georgian house in Chelsea will always be desirable, and the capital more sticky and less leveraged, but that leads to no transactions, rather than anything else.
Other views are available. Your mileage may vary.
FocusRS3 said:
Yes Shenfield.
Tonker- TBF he's had a ton of foot traffic but hasn't secured anything. Slightly 'awkward' house in terms of its road positioning but many houses in this area used to sell very much under the radar.
It does need work so maybe he needs to factor that in a little more but i'd not say he's pricing was ludicrous given what else sells in that area
It needs workTonker- TBF he's had a ton of foot traffic but hasn't secured anything. Slightly 'awkward' house in terms of its road positioning but many houses in this area used to sell very much under the radar.
It does need work so maybe he needs to factor that in a little more but i'd not say he's pricing was ludicrous given what else sells in that area
It's awkward
In two years loads of viewings
It's clearly overpriced
FocusRS3 said:
Thankyou4calling said:
It needs work
It's awkward
In two years loads of viewings
It's clearly overpriced
Its not so bad that you couldn't live in it don't get me wrong.It's awkward
In two years loads of viewings
It's clearly overpriced
The point really is that 3yrs ago it'll have sold I'm sure but the market has turned from sellers to buyers market now
Integroo said:
Anyone have a view on Edinburgh house prices, which are forecast to increase 7% a year for next three years and already sell for 10-15% over home report value? Will this trend keep increasing despite it not being the case elsewhere?
Certainly the RICS survey looks positive;
gibbon said:
To me, the issue is quality of stock, and supply.
A good flat or family home in a period building in a good bit of london will weather the storm better, rebound quick and ultimately be more desirable than oversupplied 'commodity' central flats or ten a penny suburban homes.
Could not agree more. Forgetting about all financial/news/politic speculations, a fairly good home in London is always desirable. (especially for overseas).A good flat or family home in a period building in a good bit of london will weather the storm better, rebound quick and ultimately be more desirable than oversupplied 'commodity' central flats or ten a penny suburban homes.
Sheepshanks said:
Excuse an out-of-towner question, but why would Shenfield be described as "the Hub of Crossrail"?
It's not a hub as such, it's just the last stop at the east end of the line. Comparing it to the west end of the line, Shenfield is a far more pleasant place to live than Reading and has way better access to the central London, regardless of Crossrail (just saying 
)I don't see a valid reason for house prices to have increased in the area due to Crossrail:
- the new trains follow the same tracks as the old trains, stop at more stops though (although they say there's no impact on journey times..)
- travelling to Canary Wharf means changing at Whitechapel, which is more time consuming than changing at Stratford, so no benefit there.
- travelling into the west-end meant changing at Stratford/Liverpool street but this was hardly challenging.
- the fast trains from Shenfield get to Stratford in 15 minutes (Crossrail 35mins) and Liverpool Street in 23 minutes (Crossrail 45mins).
I can see the benefits of Crossrail to the wider transport network in London, just not to people living at the east end of it, ergo house prices there.
ooid said:
Could not agree more. Forgetting about all financial/news/politic speculations, a fairly good home in London is always desirable. (especially for overseas).
Just to add, though i guess its the same point reiterated, i think London has way more capacity, desire, ability and want to successfully reinvent itself in whatever the post brexit environment is.Globally, people WANT to live there, whether you agree with it or not, and hence the intellect, power and wealth follow, and I would bet these peoples definition of what london is, may well have effect on what type of property and locations recover better.
Clue, it aint some housing estate in reading / bournemouth / chelmsford.
Edited by gibbon on Friday 17th August 12:36
FocusRS3 said:
Thankyou4calling said:
It needs work
It's awkward
In two years loads of viewings
It's clearly overpriced
Its not so bad that you couldn't live in it don't get me wrong.It's awkward
In two years loads of viewings
It's clearly overpriced
The point really is that 3yrs ago it'll have sold I'm sure but the market has turned from sellers to buyers market now
gibbon said:
Just to add, though i guess its the same point reiterated, i think London has way more capacity, desire, ability and want to successfully reinvent itself in whatever the post brexit environment is.
Globally, people WANT to live there, whether you agree with it or not, and hence the intellect, power and wealth follow, and I would bet these peoples definition of what london is, may well have effect on what type of property and locations recover better.
Clue, it aint some housing estate in reading / bournemouth / chelmsford.
Absolutely, BREXIT has to be a digital result. A squidgy soft exit, hampers our ability to reinvent and decide what London wants to be.Globally, people WANT to live there, whether you agree with it or not, and hence the intellect, power and wealth follow, and I would bet these peoples definition of what london is, may well have effect on what type of property and locations recover better.
Clue, it aint some housing estate in reading / bournemouth / chelmsford.
Edited by gibbon on Friday 17th August 12:36
Shenfield is a good example of an overheated area getting a small dose of correction. A lot of the stock is bit meh - lacking character, way too much mock Georgian for my (personal) liking. Being on Cross Rail might be quick; but I'd be more drawn to Upminster. And since Sam's closed down (about 15 years ago) no reason to ever, ever venture into Brentwood. I prefer (& live in) bandit country now so maybe have strange tastes.
stongle said:
Absolutely, BREXIT has to be a digital result. A squidgy soft exit, hampers our ability to reinvent and decide what London wants to be.
Shenfield is a good example of an overheated area getting a small dose of correction. A lot of the stock is bit meh - lacking character, way too much mock Georgian for my (personal) liking. Being on Cross Rail might be quick; but I'd be more drawn to Upminster. And since Sam's closed down (about 15 years ago) no reason to ever, ever venture into Brentwood. I prefer (& live in) bandit country now so maybe have strange tastes.
Upminster is too close to Romford for my liking and having lived there some years ago I've only seen it go downhill since.Shenfield is a good example of an overheated area getting a small dose of correction. A lot of the stock is bit meh - lacking character, way too much mock Georgian for my (personal) liking. Being on Cross Rail might be quick; but I'd be more drawn to Upminster. And since Sam's closed down (about 15 years ago) no reason to ever, ever venture into Brentwood. I prefer (& live in) bandit country now so maybe have strange tastes.
Brentwood is the smarter buy IMO.
Agree Shenfield is seeing a small correction and Crossrail is clearly fully priced in.
Not sure the infrastructure can handle even more residents and it's becoming a little overcrowded.
Having lived there for over 20yrs I'm glad to getting out soon. If nothing else its definitely time for a change.
PS No mock Georgian here :-)
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