How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[FocusRS3]

Bussolini said:

We made an offer on a small house in SE London as FTB. At least four offers in the first week and it has went to a closing date tomorrow! Thought the market was meant to be slow...

I've no idea what you are spending but the lower end of the mkt i think is ok as you have FTB and downsizers.
People always need a home not a GT3RS or a house at £2mln

[mike74]

FocusRS3 said:

I've no idea what you are spending but the lower end of the mkt i think is ok as you have FTB and downsizers.
People always need a home not a GT3RS or a house at £2mln

Agreed, the lower end of the market will always be almost entirely immune to downturns, there will always be BTLers, FTBers and downsizers, many of them cash buyers, out there.

[Bussolini]

FocusRS3 said:

I've no idea what you are spending but the lower end of the mkt i think is ok as you have FTB and downsizers.
People always need a home not a GT3RS or a house at £2mln

You guessed correctly, sub 400k.

[untakenname]

Bussolini said:

but it is immaculate inside (clearly had a lot of love spent on it recently) compared to most houses in the area which are in desperate need of modernisation. As you say, most need a lot of work, this needs zero.

I would still be weary even if it's looks good superficially, I've rented in utter dumps that seemed immaculate but once you look beneath the mdf facade you can see the whole refit has been bodged quickly on the lowest budget.


I'd go to the pub it's next to on a Thursday/Friday night and see what it's like noisewise and what sort of clientele visit, you don't want a rowdy pub with a late licence with constant noise and drunken antisocial behaviour, people pissing in your flowerbeds 3 days a week or damaging your car by using the bonnet as a bench.

[okgo]

untakenname said:

I would still be weary even if it's looks good superficially, I've rented in utter dumps that seemed immaculate but once you look beneath the mdf facade you can see the whole refit has been bodged quickly on the lowest budget.


I'd go to the pub it's next to on a Thursday/Friday night and see what it's like noisewise and what sort of clientele visit, you don't want a rowdy pub with a late licence with constant noise and drunken antisocial behaviour, people pissing in your flowerbeds 3 days a week or damaging your car by using the bonnet as a bench.

Would have thought that traveller mass brawl that originated in the pub would have put him off

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3153328/R...

[Tresco]

Bussolini said:

FocusRS3 said:

I've no idea what you are spending but the lower end of the mkt i think is ok as you have FTB and downsizers.
People always need a home not a GT3RS or a house at £2mln

You guessed correctly, sub 400k.

Very true, Daughter's just bought in Hertfordshire after submitting full and final bid at over the asking price, one of 5 bidders.

Agent said at sub £500k it's nearly all FTB with the Bank of Mum and Dad behind them and there just aren't enough properties.

[okgo]

Not sure that can be the case in London tbh, there are a LOT of flats.... Interesting that the bidding war is taking place on that property.

We are looking to sell the flat we are in, decent sized 1 bed garden flat in South London, could do with it going for overs Bet it won't.

[Bussolini]

okgo said:

Would have thought that traveller mass brawl that originated in the pub would have put him off

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3153328/R...

It did make me think twice, but I figured travellers can pitch up anywhere ... we went for a drink on Wednesday, and it closed to 2030!

okgo said:

Not sure that can be the case in London tbh, there are a LOT of flats.... Interesting that the bidding war is taking place on that property.

We are looking to sell the flat we are in, decent sized 1 bed garden flat in South London, could do with it going for overs Bet it won't.

I suspect being a freehold house for sub 400k that doesn't need work is what is making it desirable.

[Bussolini]

Offer not accepted. We offered £391k against an asking price of £385k. Back to the search!

[menousername]

Probably a blessing in disguise - i cannot imagine the next few years look good for house price growth

Better to find something that accepts an offer under rather than be bid up over

[Bussolini]

menousername said:

Probably a blessing in disguise - i cannot imagine the next few years look good for house price growth

Better to find something that accepts an offer under rather than be bid up over

Surely the fact that something sells for offers over suggests that it is desirable, and if it is desirable now, it is likely to be desirable in five or so years time as well. I think that's a better bet than getting ten grand off something that someone has been trying to shift for months which suggests in five years time it will also be difficult to shift ...

[okgo]

It’s FTB money now. If it goes up it won’t be. Can’t imagine it’s as attractive to people wanting a family home from a flat...

[Bussolini]

okgo said:

It’s FTB money now. If it goes up it won’t be. Can’t imagine it’s as attractive to people wanting a family home from a flat...

It'd have to go up 115k to be out of FTB territory...

[fido]

Bussolini said:

Surely the fact that something sells for offers over suggests that it is desirable, and if it is desirable now, it is likely to be desirable in five or so years time as well. I think that's a better bet than getting ten grand off something that someone has been trying to shift for months which suggests in five years time it will also be difficult to shift ...

I can only relate to my own purchases but the ones that were near asking or took time to get an offer accepted ended up being the nicer homes. Sounds like your sellers priced it right or in a popular area.

[p1stonhead]

Bussolini said:

menousername said:

Probably a blessing in disguise - i cannot imagine the next few years look good for house price growth

Better to find something that accepts an offer under rather than be bid up over

Surely the fact that something sells for offers over suggests that it is desirable, and if it is desirable now, it is likely to be desirable in five or so years time as well. I think that's a better bet than getting ten grand off something that someone has been trying to shift for months which suggests in five years time it will also be difficult to shift ...

I know of three in my local area that have gone to bidding wars in the last 8 months. I was part of one of them albeit I only offered over by 2%. Ended up going for 7% over. Popular village and houses priced reasonably but with lots of potential.

[Previous]

Been reading this thread for some time.

Now taken the plunge and put our 2 bed FTB type house on the market, just north of Bristol.

Looking to move to a 3/4 bed dues to needing the space (we have a 4 year old and ours is just too small).

Will be a place to live for the long term. In our area weve seen the same stock on the market for a long time in many cases, often reappearing with price drops.

There's a lot of new homes going up around here as well, and we're seeing the 10k towards mortgage + 5k John lewis vouchers type incentives on places with asking prices in the 400's (but we'll be looking for more established property for lots of the reasons already coveres on this thread).

Fingers crossed

[Greshamst]

Tonker’s been very quiet recently, does someone need to make a welfare check?

This used to be the ‘daily update of reasons why tonker won’t be buying a place thank you very much’ thread.

[2gins]

This dropped into my inbox 'new to market' the other day. Its exactly the type of property we were seriously looking at 5 years ago and we use it as a marker for the local state of affairs.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Very ambitious, when converted examples are still asking 625-650. 'Scope to extend', except the garden slopes down so by the time you've put a useful 6-8 ft extension on it you'll need an escalator to reach the garden, probably the reason it hasn't been done yet. Massively overlooked by the adjacent loft conversions, horrible ancient galley kitchen, garage pre-fab timber, probably all rotten and will need rebuilding, mid-terrace but at least its close to the service road. Couldn't be further from main bus routes or local shops.

This is the problem in this area, yes its an expensive part of the country but this is just madness. I bet it sits and gets remarketed at 610 in April

/rant

[kingston12]

2gins said:

Massively overlooked by the adjacent loft conversions, horrible ancient galley kitchen, garage pre-fab timber, probably all rotten and will need rebuilding, mid-terrace but at least its close to the service road. Couldn't be further from main bus routes or local shops.

This is the problem in this area, yes its an expensive part of the country but this is just madness. I bet it sits and gets remarketed at 610 in April

Presumably that would be a lot more money still if it was in a 'prime' area of Twickenham?

I got sent one yesterday in my target area, not far away. This is a bit different, in that it's in a cheaper area overall but this is the very most expensive part of the area, at least in terms of £/sqft.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

The last similar house went for £935k in 2017. Although it needs work, this is in better condition than that one and has the loft conversion done.

This was the type of house that was going to sealed bids a few years ago. It won't now, but it will be interesting to see if it gets anywhere close to this asking price. The rest of the area seems to have come down quite significantly, but these roads have held up because they are the ones popular with people moving out of more central areas.

[NickCQ]

2gins said:

I bet it sits and gets remarketed at 610 in April

Interesting to speculate. I don't really understand why you would put your house on the market now (and not wait for the election) unless you really had to sell in a hurry. Clearly they haven't set the asking price for a quick sale so not sure what their goal is.