How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[okgo]

NickCQ said:

Interesting to speculate. I don't really understand why you would put your house on the market now (and not wait for the election) unless you really had to sell in a hurry. Clearly they haven't set the asking price for a quick sale so not sure what their goal is.

Why not?

What they want to buy may well be going through a similar thing?

Probably listing flat I'm in here in Jan, be interesting to see what the state of affairs is with things, hoping this end of the market in Z2 South London isn't too bad, but time will tell..

[2gins]

No, its a funny one. Looks like vacant as well so presumably someone's paying council tax and utility rates etc. too. But there's not a sniff of that going at that price imo.

There were a couple on at that end of the road earlier this year for £700k, loft done and rear extended, in that context it looks like a more reasonable ask but reality is that was also daft when at the other end of the street that sort of property in that condition was £625k ish in 2014-15 and that was a stretch.

There's not really anything similar elsewhere in Twickenham outside of this area but fwiw a 3 bed terrace closer to the town, no parking, would probably be around 800-850.

[NickCQ]

okgo said:

NickCQ said:

Interesting to speculate. I don't really understand why you would put your house on the market now (and not wait for the election) unless you really had to sell in a hurry. Clearly they haven't set the asking price for a quick sale so not sure what their goal is.

Why not?
What they want to buy may well be going through a similar thing?
Probably listing flat I'm in here in Jan, be interesting to see what the state of affairs is with things, hoping this end of the market in Z2 South London isn't too bad, but time will tell..

True, there might be similar discounts on the buyside. But probably your choice of properties to move into is limited as there is so little on the market, and you have a pretty uncertain timeline as it may take a while to get a reasonable bid on the place you are selling.

For what it's worth I live in Z2 SW London as well - my plan is to put my flat on the market in the new year and rent somewhere in the location I'm considering moving to. That should give us 6-12 months to find the right place and hopefully buy without a chain.

[okgo]

NickCQ said:

True, there might be similar discounts on the buyside. But probably your choice of properties to move into is limited as there is so little on the market, and you have a pretty uncertain timeline as it may take a while to get a reasonable bid on the place you are selling.

For what it's worth I live in Z2 SW London as well - my plan is to put my flat on the market in the new year and rent somewhere in the location I'm considering moving to. That should give us 6-12 months to find the right place and hopefully buy without a chain.

Where are you looking?

I agree with the renting thing if there's not anything perfect in situ. That said, I was fairly surprised to see that I needed to set the needle to at least 3000 per month to find anything comparable to where I would like to buy a house, mad times.

[Bussolini]

I posted earlier that we lost out on a property in Z4 London despite offering above asking. We have just had an offer accepted on another property - three bed end terrace in Z4 - and had to go above asking again to secure it. Sub 500k freehold properties seem to be moving quickly!

Though we viewed another in Shooter's Hill that went up for £550k in April and is now at £425k and has not yet sold (apparently has an offer on it at £400k ...).

[scenario8]

Bussolini said:

I posted earlier that we lost out on a property in Z4 London despite offering above asking. We have just had an offer accepted on another property - three bed end terrace in Z4 - and had to go above asking again to secure it. Sub 500k freehold properties seem to be moving quickly!

Though we viewed another in Shooter's Hill that went up for £550k in April and is now at £425k and has not yet sold (apparently has an offer on it at £400k ...).

Congratulations on your purchase. I hope things progress as well as they can and you get the transaction completed swiftly.

There must be “something” about that Shooters Hill place?

FWIW out here in Outer SW London (the unfashionable non Twickenham/Surbiton bits!) listings remain low and while I can’t say I’ve seen particularly heavy downward pressure on transaction prices there’s obviously a lot of factors keeping volumes down.

I hope we get an election result that at least allows a strong government to be formed which should allow some end to the Brexit saga. With luck transaction volumes will return to historic normal levels. All bets are off though if a Corbyn led government takes charge. Lord knows what might happen in that scenario. Interesting times.

Anyone want to buy a house?

[kiethton]

In the early throws of scouting the market out (again) myself ahead of a move in 12-18m time (when I've hopefully fully paid off a crippling amount of CC debt...)

Currently in a Beckenham flat which is valued at ~10% below my mortgage value and looking to make the jump to a £600-750k (bonus & salary bump dependent) semi or detached house. After previously focusing on things around Petts Wood East/Chislehurst/Elmstead Woods I'm now being drawn toward the nicer parts of Sanderstead/South Croydon as my wife has just got a new job in Paddington so needs a Victoria line/Elephant & Castle line train (I'm in the city, currently bike but want a train option - so have London bridge)

Anybody got any thoughts on the above?

First area examples:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Second area examples:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

[NickCQ]

okgo said:

Where are you looking?

I agree with the renting thing if there's not anything perfect in situ. That said, I was fairly surprised to see that I needed to set the needle to at least 3000 per month to find anything comparable to where I would like to buy a house, mad times.

Looking between Wandsworth and Clapham commons, down as far S as Balham if needs be.
Happy to live somewhere cheaper while renting (no kids so more flexibility), that helps the equation otherwise as you say looking at £3k plus.

This one went on at £1.45 in October, already reduced by £125k:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

[Bussolini]

scenario8 said:

Congratulations on your purchase. I hope things progress as well as they can and you get the transaction completed swiftly.

There must be “something” about that Shooters Hill place?

FWIW out here in Outer SW London (the unfashionable non Twickenham/Surbiton bits!) listings remain low and while I can’t say I’ve seen particularly heavy downward pressure on transaction prices there’s obviously a lot of factors keeping volumes down.

I hope we get an election result that at least allows a strong government to be formed which should allow some end to the Brexit saga. With luck transaction volumes will return to historic normal levels. All bets are off though if a Corbyn led government takes charge. Lord knows what might happen in that scenario. Interesting times.

Anyone want to buy a house?

I think the Shooter's Hill place was just overpriced to begin with. It was lovely inside, really spotless - but not particularly well connected (no train station within walking distance, so it would be buses anywhere), not much around it, two bedrooms but the second was effectively a single, and an odd layout - two reception rooms, two bedrooms upstairs, roof terrace off the bedroom so you couldn't really use it to entertain?

It's this one: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/49864863...


The property we are purchasing is in unfashionable SE - Eltham.

[scenario8]

Bussolini said:

I think the Shooter's Hill place was just overpriced to begin with. It was lovely inside, really spotless - but not particularly well connected (no train station within walking distance, so it would be buses anywhere), not much around it, two bedrooms but the second was effectively a single, and an odd layout - two reception rooms, two bedrooms upstairs, roof terrace off the bedroom so you couldn't really use it to entertain?

It's this one: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/49864863...


The property we are purchasing is in unfashionable SE - Eltham.

They’re certainly putting the hill into Shooters Hill. Good of them to have covered all four seasons in the exterior shots. I might suggest that to my board. Full disclosure.

I wonder quite how the conversations went at the initial valuation(s). To have had a revaluation of that magnitude is remarkable (but not entirely unheard of, naturally). The property doesn’t look all that individual from what I can see.

[Bussolini]

scenario8 said:

They’re certainly putting the hill into Shooters Hill. Good of them to have covered all four seasons in the exterior shots. I might suggest that to my board. Full disclosure.

I wonder quite how the conversations went at the initial valuation(s). To have had a revaluation of that magnitude is remarkable (but not entirely unheard of, naturally). The property doesn’t look all that individual from what I can see.

The listing suggests it was up at 485k in Dec 2018 so it must have been up at 550k in April 2018 not April 2019...

[kingston12]

kiethton said:

In the early throws of scouting the market out (again) myself ahead of a move in 12-18m time (when I've hopefully fully paid off a crippling amount of CC debt...)

Currently in a Beckenham flat which is valued at ~10% below my mortgage value and looking to make the jump to a £600-750k (bonus & salary bump dependent) semi or detached house. After previously focusing on things around Petts Wood East/Chislehurst/Elmstead Woods I'm now being drawn toward the nicer parts of Sanderstead/South Croydon as my wife has just got a new job in Paddington so needs a Victoria line/Elephant & Castle line train (I'm in the city, currently bike but want a train option - so have London bridge)

Anybody got any thoughts on the above?

First area examples:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Second area examples:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

I don’t know the areas, but it certainly looks like you get a lot more in South Croydon for your £700k!

I’m assuming that is because it has ‘Croydon’ in the name because when I have driven around there lots of it seems quite pleasant. As I say, driving through is
very different to actually knowing a place.

Does it get any cheaper as you move out further, Orpington etc? Have you any aversion to going even further? Sevenoaks is nice and it’s 25 minutes to LB and 30 to Waterloo East for connection to Bakerloo/Paddington.

[kiethton]

kingston12 said:

kiethton said:

In the early throws of scouting the market out (again) myself ahead of a move in 12-18m time (when I've hopefully fully paid off a crippling amount of CC debt...)

Currently in a Beckenham flat which is valued at ~10% below my mortgage value and looking to make the jump to a £600-750k (bonus & salary bump dependent) semi or detached house. After previously focusing on things around Petts Wood East/Chislehurst/Elmstead Woods I'm now being drawn toward the nicer parts of Sanderstead/South Croydon as my wife has just got a new job in Paddington so needs a Victoria line/Elephant & Castle line train (I'm in the city, currently bike but want a train option - so have London bridge)

Anybody got any thoughts on the above?

First area examples:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Second area examples:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

I don’t know the areas, but it certainly looks like you get a lot more in South Croydon for your £700k!

I’m assuming that is because it has ‘Croydon’ in the name because when I have driven around there lots of it seems quite pleasant. As I say, driving through is
very different to actually knowing a place.

Does it get any cheaper as you move out further, Orpington etc? Have you any aversion to going even further? Sevenoaks is nice and it’s 25 minutes to LB and 30 to Waterloo East for connection to Bakerloo/Paddington.

Orpington/Sevenoaks are marginally cheaper however with my working hours 6:40 at desk to any time between 6pm and mid-night I'm trying to reduce my commute time as much as possible, with a motorbike/push bike/train option for when I really cant be arsed to ride in. Other consideration is family and potential schools for the future - my parents are Orpington (between the station and Petts Wood) and the Mrs' are in Lee so we don't want to be right on top of either if we can help it. Also socially my golf club is in Sundridge park and our friends are in Beckenham/Bromley (some potentially moving toward Dulwich) so I'm trying to balance it all really. That and with the school/house/SDLT considerations trying to find somewhere that has scope to be the "final" move, knowing that comes with space to extend materially.

[okgo]

NickCQ said:

Looking between Wandsworth and Clapham commons, down as far S as Balham if needs be.
Happy to live somewhere cheaper while renting (no kids so more flexibility), that helps the equation otherwise as you say looking at £3k plus.

This one went on at £1.45 in October, already reduced by £125k:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Noticed that this morning. yes. Hard to think people are keen to let them go for around £1m though, some will make a loss in that case...

Between the commons is very sought after and priced accordingly, I presume due to the decent schools and just pleasantness of the area, because you can be quite some way from Clapham North/Balham in places. I wouldn't mind being there but not sure I'll have enough £, might end up more the Balham side (around Cambray rd), though am considering Herne Hill/Dulwich too.

[z4RRSchris]

they will come down i'm sure. they used to be much higher.

[Shnozz]

NickCQ said:

Looking between Wandsworth and Clapham commons, down as far S as Balham if needs be.
Happy to live somewhere cheaper while renting (no kids so more flexibility), that helps the equation otherwise as you say looking at £3k plus.

This one went on at £1.45 in October, already reduced by £125k:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

My sister in law just sold her place in Roseneath Rd a few streets away. 3 bed mid terrace also. Was on the market for some time at £1.35 and she had several buyers then walking from offers or chipping her further on the price. In the end she agreed £1.2 only to then have them reduce the offer pre-exchange. Market in that neck of the woods definitely seems vulnerable.

[HoHoHo]

We recently (finally after 22 months of agro) moved in West Sussex.

House prices Up to £700k seem to have kept quite stable however houses over that and especially over the £1m price tag have and are continuing to come down.

A couple that we were interested in started at £1.4 and are now on the market at £1m and still not selling, not a sniff.

One example from the summer of 2017; We made an offer on a house on the market for £1.2 of £1.15 and we eventually after lots of haggling agreed on the £1.2 he wanted. Roll on two weeks and we had a call from the agent confirming our offer had been rejected and he wanted an additional £200,000........ yes, £200k

Apparently his friends and neighbours had all agreed he had sold it too low

We told him to go fk himself (literally) and moved on. That house stayed on the market and is now asking for offers around £1m. I do hope he has sleepless nights because that stupid decision has cost him at least £200k and probably more

The house we ended up buying was reduced by £200k within three weeks after our first visit and we then got more off the asking price by making a cheeky offer, those sellers appeared to see which way the market was heading and we were very happy.

Anyway, we’re now very happy in our new home and glad that ordeal is well and truly over, I don’t want to move again..... ever!



I suspect the main problem currently is the lack of buyers coming down from London protecting the artificial bubble which has been created over the last 20 years, we’ve now only got local people moving around and the sully offers aren’t there any more.

Edited by HoHoHo on Friday 22 November 06:40

[NickCQ]

Shnozz said:

My sister in law just sold her place in Roseneath Rd a few streets away. 3 bed mid terrace also. Was on the market for some time at £1.35 and she had several buyers then walking from offers or chipping her further on the price. In the end she agreed £1.2 only to then have them reduce the offer pre-exchange. Market in that neck of the woods definitely seems vulnerable.

Interesting info, thanks. As i see it the ‘problem’ is that there are a large number of identikit streets with identikit houses around there - they’re nice but there aren’t enough buyers for them all to be worth £1.3m

[okgo]

NickCQ said:

Interesting info, thanks. As i see it the ‘problem’ is that there are a large number of identikit streets with identikit houses around there - they’re nice but there aren’t enough buyers for them all to be worth £1.3m

And the streets are spreading, too. Between commons proper is 1.5 really as a start point and more for the bigger ones, unless it needs lots of work. 1.3 is Balham off Nightingale Rd, 1.1 ish it seems is the rest of Balham all the way over to nearer Streatham Hill. That's a large area where you need to spend a lot of money to live in indentikit houses...

[NickCQ]

HoHoHo said:

We recently (finally after 22 months of agro) moved in West Sussex.

Looks great - congrats!