How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
(In fairness, it probably is a bit).okgo said:
You think? I'd say that mostly the selling at that level are people moving out of London mainly as they don't need the space and they can buy a far more pleasant house outside of London and pocket 750k in the process. The place I'm buying is 1800sqft, 4 doubles, I think that's probably enough for 4 adults. I think below £1m and you may be right, but you don't have to go much over that and you're buying things like I mention above, obviously location dictates how much above, but they aren't starter homes, they'd be fine for anything but 3 or more kids I'd say.
1,800 sqft / 4 doubles is a different bracket, I agree - but I don't think that you get that for sub £1.5 mm in "traditionally middle class areas"My frame of reference is Hammersmith / Brook Green as well as friends looking in Putney / Barnes, for what it's worth.
Most of the buyers with the mortgageable income to support buying these sorts of places don't have the kind of job that is conducive to 45 minute plus commutes.
z4RRSchris said:
had a meeting today about mansion tax ontop of this 3%...
also one of our buyers is paying close to 8 figures in SDLT... count yourselves lucky.
Yes I am so lucky I have to buy an ex council house in the SE and only pay a measly 9k stamp duty bet he wishes he could change places with me!also one of our buyers is paying close to 8 figures in SDLT... count yourselves lucky.
z4RRSchris said:
had a meeting today about mansion tax ontop of this 3%...
Hmm, the mansion tax bit is worrying. I was thinking of stretching to something a bit over 1mm but if there's a mansion tax on that it probably puts it over my budget. Might need to put the brakes on things until there is some clarity on this. Shame!711 said:
Hmm, the mansion tax bit is worrying. I was thinking of stretching to something a bit over 1mm but if there's a mansion tax on that it probably puts it over my budget. Might need to put the brakes on things until there is some clarity on this. Shame!
Without being too "PH" about it, I wouldn't worry about 'a bit over £1 mm' being regarded as a mansion.£2 mm has always been the threshold mooted, but maybe I will be eating my words in a month's time.
Jarvid getting binned probably means the end of mansion tax/fiscal discipline for a bit. Turn on the spending taps with low interest rates/low unemployment and create the perfect conditions for property to go for a spin? Affordability has improved and maybe this is as good as it will get for buyers?
NickCQ said:
1,800 sqft / 4 doubles is a different bracket, I agree - but I don't think that you get that for sub £1.5 mm in "traditionally middle class areas"
My frame of reference is Hammersmith / Brook Green as well as friends looking in Putney / Barnes, for what it's worth.
Most of the buyers with the mortgageable income to support buying these sorts of places don't have the kind of job that is conducive to 45 minute plus commutes.
Plenty of places in Balham/Clapham etc that fit the bill, which is probably as pleasant as Putney these days, with better links.My frame of reference is Hammersmith / Brook Green as well as friends looking in Putney / Barnes, for what it's worth.
Most of the buyers with the mortgageable income to support buying these sorts of places don't have the kind of job that is conducive to 45 minute plus commutes.
I've gone for an area that logically should only get better, same property likely £1.5-17m 5 mins away off Abbeville Rd.
Not sure what you mean about the job thing, I think there's plenty in pretty normal jobs at that level - lots of people I know in my industry live in and around the area I mention (marketing/advertising) which isn't the hell of working in a law firm or a bank. I work from home.
okgo said:
Not sure what you mean about the job thing, I think there's plenty in pretty normal jobs at that level - lots of people I know in my industry live in and around the area I mention (marketing/advertising) which isn't the hell of working in a law firm or a bank. I work from home.
Maybe I mean more than 45 minutes - I'm talking about moving out to the 'stockbroker belt' of Sevenoaks, Haslemere, wherever.Just responding to your point of "buy a far more pleasant house outside of London and pocket 750k in the process"
Edited by NickCQ on Friday 14th February 09:41
Bussolini said:
z4RRSchris said:
had a meeting today about mansion tax ontop of this 3%...
also one of our buyers is paying close to 8 figures in SDLT... count yourselves lucky.
Yes I am so lucky I have to buy an ex council house in the SE and only pay a measly 9k stamp duty bet he wishes he could change places with me!also one of our buyers is paying close to 8 figures in SDLT... count yourselves lucky.
NickCQ said:
Maybe I mean more than 45 minutes - I'm talking about moving out to the 'stockbroker belt' of Sevenoaks, Haslemere, wherever.
Just responding to your point of "buy a far more pleasant house outside of London and pocket 750k in the process"
It's not so much the commute time as the reliability. If you need to get to the City, I doubt it would take much longer to get there from Sevenoaks than it would from Putney on a good day.Just responding to your point of "buy a far more pleasant house outside of London and pocket 750k in the process"
The difference is that if the Sevenoaks trains are down there is no real alternative, where as there are other options to get in from Putney.
housen said:
where do guys see the 700/900k central london market going ?
Slow growth for the next few years (2-3% max)?Might be better to rent given how low yields are
- Affordability is pretty stretched on a value to earnings basis
- No recent growth lower down the spectrum to generate equity for movers
- Not much support from overseas demand (so no FX exposure) in this price bracket
- BTL bid is long gone and not coming back
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