How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[loafer123]

kingston12 said:

NickCQ said:

Maybe I mean more than 45 minutes - I'm talking about moving out to the 'stockbroker belt' of Sevenoaks, Haslemere, wherever.
Just responding to your point of "buy a far more pleasant house outside of London and pocket 750k in the process"

It's not so much the commute time as the reliability. If you need to get to the City, I doubt it would take much longer to get there from Sevenoaks than it would from Putney on a good day.

The difference is that if the Sevenoaks trains are down there is no real alternative, where as there are other options to get in from Putney.

Despite a lot of noise about unreliability, I find Southeastern pretty good.

If the line to Sevenoaks goes down north of Orpington, trains redirect to Victoria, or you can drive to CW, or drive to Ebbsfleet and it’s 20 mins on the train in from there.

Fundamentally, though, it happens very infrequently.

[NickCQ]

kingston12 said:

NickCQ said:

Maybe I mean more than 45 minutes - I'm talking about moving out to the 'stockbroker belt' of Sevenoaks, Haslemere, wherever.
Just responding to your point of "buy a far more pleasant house outside of London and pocket 750k in the process"

It's not so much the commute time as the reliability. If you need to get to the City, I doubt it would take much longer to get there from Sevenoaks than it would from Putney on a good day.
The difference is that if the Sevenoaks trains are down there is no real alternative, where as there are other options to get in from Putney.

Think about the evening commute though.
Say you are in the office until 1am on a deal (not unusual in the legal profession, for example) - Clapham is still a 20 minute taxi ride away, whereas you have missed the last train out to the sticks.

[matrignano]

okgo said:

There isn't one?

I guess flats, but even then, you're not buying in central London for that...

That's pretty much what I'm buying as we speak.
2 beds in Earls Court for 930k (leasehold)

[p1stonhead]

Activity seems to be quite a bit up in my neck of the woods (Surrey). Was deathly quiet most of last year

[V6Alfisti]

My bet is that the average will up tick a little bit in Q1 given the slight increase in certainty (i.e Brexit is no longer stalled, albeit long from being fully resolved) and also the stamp duty driving behaviour.

Could imagine the rest of the year being flat, with some areas falling, others flat lining and others increasing. (Usual picture of every street has it's own behaviours) Certainly in the £800k-1.3m areas outside of central London I am looking at, the more "trendy" areas seem to be moving again this month if it's £800k or below, still slow above that but nice houses on nice streets go.

The less 'trendy' places are still stuck, and I am seeing more reductions come through on large homes, even the "nice ones".

Personally I don't see great quality housing stock come on in the areas where I am looking, so we have moved to a bigger rented flat until I see something I want, but I am now in the position where rent isn't being covered by my investment return/savings on transport e.t.c. The convenience hours and hours saved this week alone by being in West London vs anywhere else is massive though.

So I can now live in a flat that I know won't meet my needs in a few years time (but would cost me £900k plus to buy and £35k +stamp duty), it makes more sense for me to rent at what would be a horrible yield for the landlord if they bought at today's values and had to service a mortgage/repairs/the service charge e.t.c

[okgo]

"Certainly in the £800k-1.3m areas outside of central London I am looking at, the more "trendy" areas seem to be moving again this month if it's £800k or below, still slow above that but nice houses on nice streets go"


Not sure that's correct for all the areas I've been looking at, Dulwich, Peckham, Southfields, Clapham, Balham, Brixton, Herne Hill - anything decent has taken days to sell - 3-5 bed houses 1-1.5m.

30 odd properties I made a list of in early Jan, they're almost all sold, mostly near to or at asking, some above. That said, this is houses, you may be on about flats.

Edited by okgo on Friday 14th February 17:46

[V6Alfisti]

okgo said:

"Certainly in the £800k-1.3m areas outside of central London I am looking at, the more "trendy" areas seem to be moving again this month if it's £800k or below, still slow above that but nice houses on nice streets go"


Not sure that's correct for all the areas I've been looking at, Dulwich, Peckham, Southfields, Clapham, Balham, Brixton, Herne Hill - anything decent has taken days to sell - 3-5 bed houses 1-1.5m.

30 odd properties I made a list of in early Jan, they're almost all sold, mostly near to or at asking, some above. That said, this is houses, you may be on about flats.

Edited by okgo on Friday 14th February 17:46

Houses but not in those areas - a few of those are super popular though, so not a massive surprise if they were priced well and on a nice street in a time when people are pushing to beat the stamp duty change e.t.c. What will be really telling, is if that continues after the changes, as lots of housing commentators have been suggesting there would be a rush and then tail off, but I just hadn't seen it apart from in the more 'established' areas but certainly not to that extent.

Seemingly those are "fresh" properties as well with a Jan listing, as a quick rightmove of Clapham Junction, showed only 2 properties went STC/under offer for properties that were listed in January. but one of them did certainly go within a week or two.

[loafer123]

NickCQ said:

Think about the evening commute though.
Say you are in the office until 1am on a deal (not unusual in the legal profession, for example) - Clapham is still a 20 minute taxi ride away, whereas you have missed the last train out to the sticks.

To be fair, if you’ve become a City lawyer, you’ve got bigger problems...

[alfaman]

z4RRSchris said:

had a meeting today about mansion tax ontop of this 3%...

also one of our buyers is paying close to 8 figures in SDLT... count yourselves lucky.

I feel truly blessed at not being able to afford a 100m property.

I rent a 1 bed condo in Singapore .... In an area of $30-50m houses and every day count my lucky stars I am not burdened with the tragedy of owning one of those houses and the awful burden of paying for the helpers, gardeners and driver for my Rolls Royce Phantom

Edited by alfaman on Saturday 15th February 05:14

[Macron]

Mansion tax allegedly shelved.

We shall see. They'll need money from somewhere...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/15/bo...

[anonymous-user]

loafer123 said:

NickCQ said:

Think about the evening commute though.
Say you are in the office until 1am on a deal (not unusual in the legal profession, for example) - Clapham is still a 20 minute taxi ride away, whereas you have missed the last train out to the sticks.

To be fair, if you’ve become a City lawyer, you’ve got bigger problems...

Like what to spend it all on ?

[loafer123]

Schmed said:

loafer123 said:

NickCQ said:

Think about the evening commute though.
Say you are in the office until 1am on a deal (not unusual in the legal profession, for example) - Clapham is still a 20 minute taxi ride away, whereas you have missed the last train out to the sticks.

To be fair, if you’ve become a City lawyer, you’ve got bigger problems...

Like what to spend it all on ?

Only if you shop online from your desk!

[Earthdweller]

alfaman said:

I feel truly blessed at not being able to afford a 100m property.

I rent a 1 bed condo in Singapore .... In an area of $30-50m houses and every day count my lucky stars I am not burdened with the tragedy of owning one of those houses and the awful burden of paying for the helpers, gardeners and driver for my Rolls Royce Phantom

Edited by alfaman on Saturday 15th February 05:14

You are absolutely right.

I own my own little bit of this world .. I have no mortgage and yes it’s not in the middle of Chelsea, but I’m happy

My brother in law last year showed me round a penthouse in Manhattan which his firm were the electrical contractors for the building. West side not far from Central Park, Hells Kitchen/Midtown area

$18m .. 4 beds, nice view of the Hudson and other people’s windows, but no parking, no garage

Not for me in a million years

[156651]

Guardian seems to think prices are going upwards: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/feb/17/uk-h...

[alfaman]

Earthdweller said:

alfaman said:

I feel truly blessed at not being able to afford a 100m property.

I rent a 1 bed condo in Singapore .... In an area of $30-50m houses and every day count my lucky stars I am not burdened with the tragedy of owning one of those houses and the awful burden of paying for the helpers, gardeners and driver for my Rolls Royce Phantom

Edited by alfaman on Saturday 15th February 05:14

You are absolutely right.

I own my own little bit of this world .. I have no mortgage and yes it’s not in the middle of Chelsea, but I’m happy

My brother in law last year showed me round a penthouse in Manhattan which his firm were the electrical contractors for the building. West side not far from Central Park, Hells Kitchen/Midtown area

$18m .. 4 beds, nice view of the Hudson and other people’s windows, but no parking, no garage

Not for me in a million years

I was joking of course... Being able to afford a GCB (Good Class Bungalow) here would mean I would be living very comfortably forever and would have zero money concerns at all

[Earthdweller]

alfaman said:

I was joking of course... Being able to afford a GCB (Good Class Bungalow) here would mean I would be living very comfortably forever and would have zero money concerns at all

I gathered that .. but countered that there is more to life than chasing money to pay for MORE when LESS will do just as well

And I REALLY wouldn’t live in a flat in the middle of Manhattan

[2gins]

156651 said:

Guardian seems to think prices are going upwards: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/feb/17/uk-h...

Not really. Based on asking prices not LR sold data, and the agent quoted in the article states buyers aren't upping their budgets. Also talk of it flattening off later in the year, uncertainty around budget, trade neg's etc.

[s1962a]

2gins said:

156651 said:

Guardian seems to think prices are going upwards: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/feb/17/uk-h...

Not really. Based on asking prices not LR sold data, and the agent quoted in the article states buyers aren't upping their budgets. Also talk of it flattening off later in the year, uncertainty around budget, trade neg's etc.

Yes, this is probably true, but there are also a lot of people who have been waiting, and post Brexit seems like a good catalyst to start looking. I've seen some market activity in my part of London, so lets see if that transpires into actual sales.

[2gins]

I am one of those people and we're looking more seriously now, so contributing to the rightmove spike. But we certainly won't be splashing out just 'because Boris'. Finances are as tight as ever despite the election and only likely to get more so!

[inonthis]

I've listened to 'the property podcast' for many years (highly recommended). The two Rob's are usually bang on the money and they motivated me to buy in a certain location which is proving to be a good decision. They're saying the 'mid-cycle wobble' is now coming to an end and we're in for 7 years of growth which sounds plausible. I'll bookmark this post