How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[gibbon]

Good job he doesnt work in anything involving yields.... oh wait...

[housen]

gibbon said:

Good job he doesnt work in anything involving yields.... oh wait...

hahahah


yes thx i did correct myself

[gibbon]

housen said:

hahahah


yes thx i did correct myself

you're still 20 ticks out buddy... hahaha.

[housen]

gibbon said:

housen said:

hahahah


yes thx i did correct myself

you're still 20 ticks out buddy... hahaha.

hahahah true

2.6% agreed

can we move on now ;-)

[711]

Anyone had a sale fall through because of market/coronavirus yet?

[Helicopter123]

Talk of interest rate cut to support the economy during the coronavirus panic.

Supportive for property prices I guess?

[711]

Hmm..maybe although I wonder if we're at the point where debt burden and servicing is the bigger problem.

Going into a mega mortgage at the same moment that we're on the brink of a bear market is going to need someone pretty comfortable with risk.

[fido]

Or an excuse to lower Sterling and make exports cheaper, especially versus the Euro?

[711]

fido said:

Or an excuse to lower Sterling and make exports cheaper, especially versus the Euro?

Which might support property prices via foreign buyers...providing they have any money/appetite left for it.

Will be interesting to see what happens with markets next week.

Some news articles are already quoting estate agents saying there's been a drop in enquiries/activity, but one quote isn't data and I'm surprised it's happened that quickly!

[UpBeats]

House prices are toast. Look at builders shares. Follow the money. We will be down 20pc by next April.

[loafer123]

UpBeats said:

House prices are toast. Look at builders shares. Follow the money. We will be down 20pc by next April.

Certainly down a fair chunk.

Mind you, house prices are determined by affordability, and gilt yields are down heavily too, making long term borrowing even cheaper than it was.

[156651]

We have just exchanged on our first property. Hopefully the concern does not prove to be true! We had to offer over asking to secure. Not convinced demand is going anywhere such that prices will drop.

[Helicopter123]

loafer123 said:

UpBeats said:

House prices are toast. Look at builders shares. Follow the money. We will be down 20pc by next April.

Certainly down a fair chunk.

Mind you, house prices are determined by affordability, and gilt yields are down heavily too, making long term borrowing even cheaper than it was.

Some have wrongly been saying prices will fall for a decade now though, so difficult to take them too seriously. As long as buying is cheaper than renting, then most sensible folks would surely rather pay their own mortgage than someone else’s?

[156651]

Helicopter123 said:

Some have wrongly been saying prices will fall for a decade now though, so difficult to take them too seriously. As long as buying is cheaper than renting, then most sensible folks would surely rather pay their own mortgage than someone else’s?

This is true. You should read forums from around 2010 where apparently a massive crash was imminent. Prices have SKYROCKETED since.

Unless interest rates increase (seems unlikely), or there is a massive recession and lots of people lose their jobs, or millions die of coronavirus and lots of properties come on for sale at once, I just can't see demand dropping or supply increasing such that prices will crash. Not in London at least.

[Sheepshanks]

156651 said:

Unless interest rates increase (seems unlikely), or there is a massive recession and lots of people lose their jobs, or millions die of coronavirus and lots of properties come on for sale at once, I just can't see demand dropping or supply increasing such that prices will crash. Not in London at least.

Could there be an effect from people from elsewhere in Europe going home?

[156651]

Sheepshanks said:

Could there be an effect from people from elsewhere in Europe going home?

Perhaps. But how many European immigrants are home owners? Those that are have roots down and can't imagine that many will sell up and leave.

[ClaphamGT3]

Sheepshanks said:

Could there be an effect from people from elsewhere in Europe going home?

As part of a wider economic slow-down, potentially. From a purely EU citizens returning to their country of origin, less so, not least because the majority of those are in the rental sector.

The part of the housing sector where we are seeing most activity at the moment is BTR. House builders and RPs still somewhat cautious on the basis of sluggish absorption rates

[Helicopter123]

Sheepshanks said:

156651 said:

Unless interest rates increase (seems unlikely), or there is a massive recession and lots of people lose their jobs, or millions die of coronavirus and lots of properties come on for sale at once, I just can't see demand dropping or supply increasing such that prices will crash. Not in London at least.

Could there be an effect from people from elsewhere in Europe going home?

Won’t this be offset by the record numbers of non-EU migrants arriving though? A record 390,000 in the year to September 2019.

https://workpermit.com/news/non-eu-immigration-uk-...

If anything a ‘points based’ system should be more supportive still as it encourages higher earners over others.

[Sheepshanks]

Helicopter123 said:

Some have wrongly been saying prices will fall for a decade now though, so difficult to take them too seriously. As long as buying is cheaper than renting, then most sensible folks would surely rather pay their own mortgage than someone else’s?

I suppose it varies by area, but generally it seems to be cheaper to buy than rent at the bottom end of the market, but once you move away from that rental yields are generally terrible.

So there will always be demand at the bottom, but where the market goes above that, who knows?

[ooid]

The agents I have been using for the last 10 years probably, told me this recently; "we have just agreed the sale of a three-bedroom apartment in EC1 (London) which, in over a period of 2 days.. We have arranged 36 viewings and received 8 offers. After frantic bidding we agreed the sale for well in excess of the asking price."