How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
lemmingjames said:
You cant see how some people will try and fleece the company they work for with the new measures?
I.e. would you got to work for 100%
Stay at home not doing anything for 80% (assuming you cant work from home)
Yup thankfuly for me I work from home and we are the mosty busy we’ve been yetI.e. would you got to work for 100%
Stay at home not doing anything for 80% (assuming you cant work from home)
However, I can imagine some tards grabbing the 80% and going clothes shopping etc
Rough with the smooth
Don’t get me started on professional dole claimed and their behaviour
Thankyou4calling said:
jonwm said:
I was due to exchange on a new build last friday and complete 27th March. I have heard nothing from anyone. Prior to last week the developer was on at me twice a day chasing and the solicitors were on email daily.
I went past the house yesterday and it's all completed. Garden done and all internal work done and fitted.
I feel quite in limbo obviously worried as now the economy has changed and my first time buyers may has suffered from this.
With radio silence it's very strange, my wife is still packing boxes up, I haven't the heart to tell its unlikely we will be moving
Have you considered contacting your agent/solicitor rather than posting here? I went past the house yesterday and it's all completed. Garden done and all internal work done and fitted.
I feel quite in limbo obviously worried as now the economy has changed and my first time buyers may has suffered from this.
With radio silence it's very strange, my wife is still packing boxes up, I haven't the heart to tell its unlikely we will be moving
I didn't come on here to write a post about it, I was just contributing to the thread with my current experience.
StanleyT said:
As a staffy, my work have very kindly said at worse we'll get 80% salary paid.....................
.................................Unless we have to take time off to look after out children, then it is "unpaid parental leave". Oh well, the Lancashire power station I work for will have to Scooby Doo then. t
ts.
And as per wifes company whom have said the same despite her being in NHS supply chain Pharmacutical Production Management.
I don't get this - the employer can have their furloughed staff's salary (up to 80%) paid by the Government, and it will cost the employer nothing, and they don't have to re-hire when this blows over. Why wouldn't they?.................................Unless we have to take time off to look after out children, then it is "unpaid parental leave". Oh well, the Lancashire power station I work for will have to Scooby Doo then. t
ts.And as per wifes company whom have said the same despite her being in NHS supply chain Pharmacutical Production Management.
156651 said:
Anyone else think house prices can't crash given Government incentives?
Underwriting wages.
Mortgage holidays.
Interest free business loans.
People aren't going to be having their houses repossessed. There might be limited demand over next few months, but will also be limited supply. Once it blows over, it will return to as was?
Might it even push prices up - lots of money getting pumped into economies, but people can't easily spend it?
The previous posts on this and yours has ignored the factor of mass unemployment.Underwriting wages.
Mortgage holidays.
Interest free business loans.
People aren't going to be having their houses repossessed. There might be limited demand over next few months, but will also be limited supply. Once it blows over, it will return to as was?
Might it even push prices up - lots of money getting pumped into economies, but people can't easily spend it?
Edited by 156651 on Friday 20th March 17:32
Figures such as 25-30% have been banded around, that should sober anyone up that wants to invest in any asset.
156651 said:
StanleyT said:
As a staffy, my work have very kindly said at worse we'll get 80% salary paid.....................
.................................Unless we have to take time off to look after out children, then it is "unpaid parental leave". Oh well, the Lancashire power station I work for will have to Scooby Doo then. tts.
And as per wifes company whom have said the same despite her being in NHS supply chain Pharmacutical Production Management.
I don't get this - the employer can have their furloughed staff's salary (up to 80%) paid by the Government, and it will cost the employer nothing, and they don't have to re-hire when this blows over. Why wouldn't they?.................................Unless we have to take time off to look after out children, then it is "unpaid parental leave". Oh well, the Lancashire power station I work for will have to Scooby Doo then. t
ts.And as per wifes company whom have said the same despite her being in NHS supply chain Pharmacutical Production Management.
Carl_Manchester said:
156651 said:
Anyone else think house prices can't crash given Government incentives?
Underwriting wages.
Mortgage holidays.
Interest free business loans.
People aren't going to be having their houses repossessed. There might be limited demand over next few months, but will also be limited supply. Once it blows over, it will return to as was?
Might it even push prices up - lots of money getting pumped into economies, but people can't easily spend it?
The previous posts on this and yours has ignored the factor of mass unemployment.Underwriting wages.
Mortgage holidays.
Interest free business loans.
People aren't going to be having their houses repossessed. There might be limited demand over next few months, but will also be limited supply. Once it blows over, it will return to as was?
Might it even push prices up - lots of money getting pumped into economies, but people can't easily spend it?
Edited by 156651 on Friday 20th March 17:32
Figures such as 25-30% have been banded around, that should sober anyone up that wants to invest in any asset.
s1962a said:
I am soon to be house seller, and I can't see how prices can stay at their current levels. I've no idea what will happen when all this blows over, but with all the turmoil in the economy, who will be buying these houses?
The same people who are buying them now? If the Government won't let anyone fail mid crisis, then hopefully when it blows over everything goes back to normal. That's on the basis this lasts two or three months not 18, mind you ...What I can't square is there is a lot of chat about how the Government's massive borrow and spend will lead to inflation, and that's bad, but that house prices will at the same time deflate. Surely we aren't likely to have one without the other?
156651 said:
The same people who are buying them now? If the Government won't let anyone fail mid crisis, then hopefully when it blows over everything goes back to normal. That's on the basis this lasts two or three months not 18, mind you ...
What I can't square is there is a lot of chat about how the Government's massive borrow and spend will lead to inflation, and that's bad, but that house prices will at the same time deflate. Surely we aren't likely to have one without the other?
Supply and demand.What I can't square is there is a lot of chat about how the Government's massive borrow and spend will lead to inflation, and that's bad, but that house prices will at the same time deflate. Surely we aren't likely to have one without the other?
Supply up:
New builds (arguably mainly low demand s
t houses in st areas)Increased deaths this year (lots of houses that’ll need some moderate to high renovation)
BTL’ers likely seeing a market dip so want to offload
Demand up:
Renters wanting to buy as interest rates are lower
Young people wanting to buy as market dips and interest rates lower
???
I see a roughly equal of upward and downward pressure.
Money printing/bailouts, ala 2007/8/9, led to asset price inflation.
So with that added in I see prices being secure or going up.
However ‘values’ will probably ‘drop’
Mr Whippy said:
156651 said:
The same people who are buying them now? If the Government won't let anyone fail mid crisis, then hopefully when it blows over everything goes back to normal. That's on the basis this lasts two or three months not 18, mind you ...
What I can't square is there is a lot of chat about how the Government's massive borrow and spend will lead to inflation, and that's bad, but that house prices will at the same time deflate. Surely we aren't likely to have one without the other?
Supply and demand.What I can't square is there is a lot of chat about how the Government's massive borrow and spend will lead to inflation, and that's bad, but that house prices will at the same time deflate. Surely we aren't likely to have one without the other?
Supply up:
New builds (arguably mainly low demand s
t houses in st areas)Increased deaths this year (lots of houses that’ll need some moderate to high renovation)
BTL’ers likely seeing a market dip so want to offload
Demand up:
Renters wanting to buy as interest rates are lower
Young people wanting to buy as market dips and interest rates lower
???
I see a roughly equal of upward and downward pressure.
Money printing/bailouts, ala 2007/8/9, led to asset price inflation.
So with that added in I see prices being secure or going up.
However ‘values’ will probably ‘drop’
156651 said:
Yes, that's my point - demand will drop until this blows over, but so will supply. Plus more money in the system - people spending a lot less with everything shut but still getting most of their wage - people save more easily, so bigger deposit to buy / move up the chain once this blows over?
You’re assuming the economy will still have lots of decent-paying jobs at the end of this...There's so many moving parts in all of this it's impossible to predict.
Low interest rates and high inflation isn't something that's really occurred before. Normally high inflation leads the government to increase rates but I can't see that this time.
Plus there is the fact that property has utility so isn't the worst place to tie up any cash. It will always have a value.
Low interest rates and high inflation isn't something that's really occurred before. Normally high inflation leads the government to increase rates but I can't see that this time.
Plus there is the fact that property has utility so isn't the worst place to tie up any cash. It will always have a value.
rm163603 said:
There's so many moving parts in all of this it's impossible to predict.
Low interest rates and high inflation isn't something that's really occurred before. Normally high inflation leads the government to increase rates but I can't see that this time.
Plus there is the fact that property has utility so isn't the worst place to tie up any cash. It will always have a value.
I don’t think we were taking about tying up cash. Most home-buyers are buying with credit. If wages drop 20% (quite possible) and jobs are fewer then how are these houses to be bought?Low interest rates and high inflation isn't something that's really occurred before. Normally high inflation leads the government to increase rates but I can't see that this time.
Plus there is the fact that property has utility so isn't the worst place to tie up any cash. It will always have a value.
skwdenyer said:
You’re assuming the economy will still have lots of decent-paying jobs at the end of this...
I think this is the issue. I work in financial services and everyone I know around here is worried about their jobs - not right now, they need us, but in say a years time when the true scale of what has happened has hit the bottom line.I'm being realistic here - the demand for 3 bed houses in London is reasonably strong, but will people really want to upsize or buy in the next year or so if they are worried about their jobs? time will tell.
Mr Whippy said:
Supply and demand.
Supply up:
New builds (arguably mainly low demand st houses in st areas)
Increased deaths this year (lots of houses that’ll need some moderate to high renovation)
BTL’ers likely seeing a market dip so want to offload
Demand up:
Renters wanting to buy as interest rates are lower
Young people wanting to buy as market dips and interest rates lower
???
I see a roughly equal of upward and downward pressure.
Money printing/bailouts, ala 2007/8/9, led to asset price inflation.
So with that added in I see prices being secure or going up.
However ‘values’ will probably ‘drop’
I see where you are going but there are far more factors at play, and some of the points are arguable.Supply up:
New builds (arguably mainly low demand s
t houses in st areas)Increased deaths this year (lots of houses that’ll need some moderate to high renovation)
BTL’ers likely seeing a market dip so want to offload
Demand up:
Renters wanting to buy as interest rates are lower
Young people wanting to buy as market dips and interest rates lower
???
I see a roughly equal of upward and downward pressure.
Money printing/bailouts, ala 2007/8/9, led to asset price inflation.
So with that added in I see prices being secure or going up.
However ‘values’ will probably ‘drop’
Although appreciate it was off the top of your head (in the same way the below is, and no doubt misses lots)
Thus factors that are either positively or negatively impacting the value of the housing market
+ Renters/young people wanting to buy as interest rates are lower and house prices "soften"- (They have been super low for a very long time and there was a slow unwinding of house prices in London over the past 2+ years despite super low interest rates)
+ Other buyers buy as the year progresses as they either need to, or take advantage of any "softening" (this is likely to be me, and thus my next post....)
+ Potentially larger investors in buy to let world, look to take advantage
- Risk sentiment - There has already been a hit to the market, as people drop out of deals . Apparently the markets are pricing in a 12% drop in house prices (I read on Bloomberg I think this morning)
- New builds increase supply (Although this will reduce as they see demand drop, so will desire to continue building)
- Deaths - Increased supply of housing
- BTL’ers continue sell off
- Reduction in foreign investment likely
- Job losses inspite of government measures, or part of the market running on 80% of their usual income
For me the negatives outweight the positives quite substantially , as the low interest rates have been around for ages and still didn't sustain the growth we saw in previous years. However now there is a massive fear factor, at the same time as brexit continues to be negotiated.
For me the market is driven by two key factors (many others but these seem to be the one that matter, 1) the availability of cheap cash/ability to afford the monthlies - although the impact of this hasn't been enough to retain the growth levels previously seen, as now house prices are at the peak tip of affordability 2) Sentiment that your going to gain or not lose your hat, as Henry Pryor would say "why would you buy today, when you think you can buy cheaper tomorrow"
Typically I was starting to look at properties again, as I could see some nice drops on where the market was a couple of years ago. Now I am right back there, as this feels like a stupid time to buy (but equally an opportunity in x months/year) particularly as I am much more weighted on savings than need for a mortgage. The last decision not to move saved me a six figure sum, and here we are again.
V6Alfisti said:
I see where you are going but there are far more factors at play, and some of the points are arguable.
Although appreciate it was off the top of your head (in the same way the below is, and no doubt misses lots)
Thus factors that are either positively or negatively impacting the value of the housing market
+ Renters/young people wanting to buy as interest rates are lower and house prices "soften"- (They have been super low for a very long time and there was a slow unwinding of house prices in London over the past 2+ years despite super low interest rates)
+ Other buyers buy as the year progresses as they either need to, or take advantage of any "softening" (this is likely to be me, and thus my next post....)
+ Potentially larger investors in buy to let world, look to take advantage
- Risk sentiment - There has already been a hit to the market, as people drop out of deals and renters. Apparently the markets are pricing in a 12% drop in house prices (I read on Bloomberg I think this morning)
- New builds increase supply (Although this will reduce as they see demand drop, so will desire to continue building)
- Deaths - Increased supply of housing
- BTL’ers continue sell off
- Reduction in foreign investment likely
- Job losses inspite of government measures, or part of the market running on 80% of their usual income
For me the negatives outweight the positives quite substantially , as the low interest rates have been around for ages and still didn't sustain the growth we saw in previous years. However now there is a massive fear factor, at the same time as brexit continues to be negotiated.
For me the market is driven by two key factors (many others but these seem to be the one that matter, 1) the availability of cheap cash/ability to afford the monthlies - although the impact of this hasn't been enough to retain the growth levels previously seen, as now house prices are at the peak tip of affordability 2) Sentiment that your going to gain or not lose your hat, as Henry Pryor would say "why would you buy today, when you think you can buy cheaper tomorrow"
Typically I was starting to look at properties again, as I could see some nice drops on where the market was a couple of years ago. Now I am right back there, as this feels like a stupid time to buy (but equally an opportunity in x months/year) particularly as I am much more weighted on savings than need for a mortgage. The last decision not to move saved me a six figure sum, and here we are again.
I think the 'positive' factor you are missing generally is inflation. Government printing lots of money, and a lot of it going straight into the pockets of normal people rather than the banks etc. Inflation means increased asset prices, not house price crashes. This is the circle I can't seem to square - though it is certainly not something I understand particularly well. Although appreciate it was off the top of your head (in the same way the below is, and no doubt misses lots)
Thus factors that are either positively or negatively impacting the value of the housing market
+ Renters/young people wanting to buy as interest rates are lower and house prices "soften"- (They have been super low for a very long time and there was a slow unwinding of house prices in London over the past 2+ years despite super low interest rates)
+ Other buyers buy as the year progresses as they either need to, or take advantage of any "softening" (this is likely to be me, and thus my next post....)
+ Potentially larger investors in buy to let world, look to take advantage
- Risk sentiment - There has already been a hit to the market, as people drop out of deals and renters. Apparently the markets are pricing in a 12% drop in house prices (I read on Bloomberg I think this morning)
- New builds increase supply (Although this will reduce as they see demand drop, so will desire to continue building)
- Deaths - Increased supply of housing
- BTL’ers continue sell off
- Reduction in foreign investment likely
- Job losses inspite of government measures, or part of the market running on 80% of their usual income
For me the negatives outweight the positives quite substantially , as the low interest rates have been around for ages and still didn't sustain the growth we saw in previous years. However now there is a massive fear factor, at the same time as brexit continues to be negotiated.
For me the market is driven by two key factors (many others but these seem to be the one that matter, 1) the availability of cheap cash/ability to afford the monthlies - although the impact of this hasn't been enough to retain the growth levels previously seen, as now house prices are at the peak tip of affordability 2) Sentiment that your going to gain or not lose your hat, as Henry Pryor would say "why would you buy today, when you think you can buy cheaper tomorrow"
Typically I was starting to look at properties again, as I could see some nice drops on where the market was a couple of years ago. Now I am right back there, as this feels like a stupid time to buy (but equally an opportunity in x months/year) particularly as I am much more weighted on savings than need for a mortgage. The last decision not to move saved me a six figure sum, and here we are again.
Now related to the above, and that point about the market not being off the cards forever (clearly).
However this equally opens up some opportunities for buyers at the right time.
We have been bouncing around the idea about where to move, and surprise surprise it comes down to commute time.
It needs to be within about a 40 minute train/tube ride of Farringdon, we are in our early/mid 30's and currently live on the border of zone 1/2.
Love the connections (but somewhere nice/quiet), love the ease of access to social life but equally we both have very "intense" jobs and would therefore equally favour a bit of peace and quiet with access to "fun" when we are able.
I travel a lot to, central London, areas north of London and west of the country (typically by train from Padd)
So given this and also a desire for a detached house with a decent frontage, nice road, large garden e.t.c . we were thinking somewhere on Thameslink like Beckenham (seems to be a nice mix of the above, with pubs/restaurants/cafes", or somewhere like Coulsdon/Chipstead (again because of the Thameslink) a big fan of some of the housing in the area, but it is certainly more remote.
We have retested our desire to live in a 3+bed flat in nice bits of London, or a terrace/semi somewhere on the tube or even areas like Crystal Palace e.t.c but it just always leaves us a bit underwelmed. Also places like Redhill/Reigate are just outside of Zone 6 and so the travel costs quickly escalate.
Any other bright ideas about great areas that suit our needs (i.e detached, large, with good commute in good area - yes that old chestnut).Probably looking at £1-1.2m for a 4 bedder minimum (at least 200sqm) e.t.c
However this equally opens up some opportunities for buyers at the right time.
We have been bouncing around the idea about where to move, and surprise surprise it comes down to commute time.
It needs to be within about a 40 minute train/tube ride of Farringdon, we are in our early/mid 30's and currently live on the border of zone 1/2.
Love the connections (but somewhere nice/quiet), love the ease of access to social life but equally we both have very "intense" jobs and would therefore equally favour a bit of peace and quiet with access to "fun" when we are able.
I travel a lot to, central London, areas north of London and west of the country (typically by train from Padd)
So given this and also a desire for a detached house with a decent frontage, nice road, large garden e.t.c . we were thinking somewhere on Thameslink like Beckenham (seems to be a nice mix of the above, with pubs/restaurants/cafes", or somewhere like Coulsdon/Chipstead (again because of the Thameslink) a big fan of some of the housing in the area, but it is certainly more remote.
We have retested our desire to live in a 3+bed flat in nice bits of London, or a terrace/semi somewhere on the tube or even areas like Crystal Palace e.t.c but it just always leaves us a bit underwelmed. Also places like Redhill/Reigate are just outside of Zone 6 and so the travel costs quickly escalate.
Any other bright ideas about great areas that suit our needs (i.e detached, large, with good commute in good area - yes that old chestnut).Probably looking at £1-1.2m for a 4 bedder minimum (at least 200sqm) e.t.c
V6Alfisti said:
Now related to the above, and that point about the market not being off the cards forever (clearly).
However this equally opens up some opportunities for buyers at the right time.
We have been bouncing around the idea about where to move, and surprise surprise it comes down to commute time.
It needs to be within about a 40 minute train/tube ride of Farringdon, we are in our early/mid 30's and currently live on the border of zone 1/2.
Love the connections (but somewhere nice/quiet), love the ease of access to social life but equally we both have very "intense" jobs and would therefore equally favour a bit of peace and quiet with access to "fun" when we are able.
I travel a lot to, central London, areas north of London and west of the country (typically by train from Padd)
So given this and also a desire for a detached house with a decent frontage, nice road, large garden e.t.c . we were thinking somewhere on Thameslink like Beckenham (seems to be a nice mix of the above, with pubs/restaurants/cafes", or somewhere like Coulsdon/Chipstead (again because of the Thameslink) a big fan of some of the housing in the area, but it is certainly more remote.
We have retested our desire to live in a 3+bed flat in nice bits of London, or a terrace/semi somewhere on the tube or even areas like Crystal Palace e.t.c but it just always leaves us a bit underwelmed. Also places like Redhill/Reigate are just outside of Zone 6 and so the travel costs quickly escalate.
Any other bright ideas about great areas that suit our needs (i.e detached, large, with good commute in good area - yes that old chestnut).Probably looking at £1-1.2m for a 4 bedder minimum (at least 200sqm) e.t.c
You certainly have done your homework. For around that price range I would have suggested Crystal Palace/Norwood but you are underwhelmed by them - i dont blame you. It's green, close to Dulwich, but a lot of riff raff around. Saying that, it's a 30 min cab ride home at night from the city and approx 50 min commute during the day (including the bus to the station) so you still feel like you're living in London. Good luck!However this equally opens up some opportunities for buyers at the right time.
We have been bouncing around the idea about where to move, and surprise surprise it comes down to commute time.
It needs to be within about a 40 minute train/tube ride of Farringdon, we are in our early/mid 30's and currently live on the border of zone 1/2.
Love the connections (but somewhere nice/quiet), love the ease of access to social life but equally we both have very "intense" jobs and would therefore equally favour a bit of peace and quiet with access to "fun" when we are able.
I travel a lot to, central London, areas north of London and west of the country (typically by train from Padd)
So given this and also a desire for a detached house with a decent frontage, nice road, large garden e.t.c . we were thinking somewhere on Thameslink like Beckenham (seems to be a nice mix of the above, with pubs/restaurants/cafes", or somewhere like Coulsdon/Chipstead (again because of the Thameslink) a big fan of some of the housing in the area, but it is certainly more remote.
We have retested our desire to live in a 3+bed flat in nice bits of London, or a terrace/semi somewhere on the tube or even areas like Crystal Palace e.t.c but it just always leaves us a bit underwelmed. Also places like Redhill/Reigate are just outside of Zone 6 and so the travel costs quickly escalate.
Any other bright ideas about great areas that suit our needs (i.e detached, large, with good commute in good area - yes that old chestnut).Probably looking at £1-1.2m for a 4 bedder minimum (at least 200sqm) e.t.c
Unfortunately, not many 4 bed detached houses around, unless you move further out to the commuter belt.
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