How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
FocusRS3 said:
scenario8 said:
And there are hundreds if not thousands more units on their way. I appreciate we’re raking over old ground by discussing “posh” flats in Kingston. I didn’t really “get” them when the first developments went up all those years ago and here we are all this time on with thousands of the bloomin’ things. At least the older ones were bang on the river. Some of the more recent ones, while modern and thus flush with exciting fashionable items - alongside the also fashionable extortionate service charge contracts hold such little appeal. Especially for their headline prices.
54 sq m - £630,000.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
I’m sure better/worse examples exist.
To me that's a very easy way to lose money but wadda I know.....54 sq m - £630,000.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
I’m sure better/worse examples exist.
king mental for a 1 bed there. Or anywhere but even more so there. anonymous said:
[redacted]
Indeed. I can't imagine any of these will go for more than £600k anyway, because isn't that where Help to Sell ends? Ask £630k, sell for £550k to someone who thinks they have got a bargain because the government are loaning 40%, and everyone is happy.... or at least the developer is happy and that is all that matters (especially in Kingston whilst a property developer was leading the council until recently).
It has been a neat little scam, but I can't help thinking that some of these developers will lose their shirts now that the scam-master has gone. If the national level scam of Help to Buy ever ends, these will look very expensive considering you can buy better flats next to the river or park (rather than on the one-way system) for less than £400k.
Parking is another part of the scam. The developers have been allowed to build blocks with very few spaces which is seen as a win-win because it means more units can be squeezed in and less traffic in the congested town centre.
The problem is that the public transport isn’t actually that good. The daily commute to London is ok-ish, and most of what you need is on the doorstep anyway, but the only other connection is to surrounding towns by bus, so most people will prefer to have a car.
If the Zipcar-type model was expanded to have one on most street corners and several in each of these developments then it might be different, but until then...
Edited by kingston12 on Thursday 4th October 07:25
kingston12 said:
Indeed. I can't imagine any of these will go for more than £600k anyway, because isn't that where Help to Sell ends?
Ask £630k, sell for £550k to someone who thinks they have got a bargain because the government are loaning 40%, and everyone is happy.... or at least the developer is happy and that is all that matters (especially in Kingston whilst a property developer was leading the council until recently).
It has been a neat little scam, but I can't help thinking that some of these developers will lose their shirts now that the scam-master has gone. If the national level scam of Help to Buy ever ends, these will look very expensive considering you can buy better flats next to the river or park (rather than on the one-way system) for less than £400k.
Can see the new overpriced small packed together flats in London going the same way as the new small stuff here in Singapore ...Ask £630k, sell for £550k to someone who thinks they have got a bargain because the government are loaning 40%, and everyone is happy.... or at least the developer is happy and that is all that matters (especially in Kingston whilst a property developer was leading the council until recently).
It has been a neat little scam, but I can't help thinking that some of these developers will lose their shirts now that the scam-master has gone. If the national level scam of Help to Buy ever ends, these will look very expensive considering you can buy better flats next to the river or park (rather than on the one-way system) for less than £400k.
Combo of oversupply of new small (tiny) units and increased stamp duty ( in SG ) has tanked the new build market for studios and 1 bedders.
Much better to go for older bigger stuff where the units are spaced and laid out so you can’t hear your neighbour sneeze .... just get a refit done on the kitchen and bathroom.
I live in a 1980s refurbed condo which is positively prehistoric ... but has loads of space inside and outside ....
...
kingston12 said:
Indeed. I can't imagine any of these will go for more than £600k anyway, because isn't that where Help to Sell ends?
Ask £630k, sell for £550k to someone who thinks they have got a bargain because the government are loaning 40%, and everyone is happy.... or at least the developer is happy and that is all that matters (especially in Kingston whilst a property developer was leading the council until recently).
It has been a neat little scam, but I can't help thinking that some of these developers will lose their shirts now that the scam-master has gone. If the national level scam of Help to Buy ever ends, these will look very expensive considering you can buy better flats next to the river or park (rather than on the one-way system) for less than £400k.
What are your thoughts on the 2nd hand value on ‘scam to sell’?Ask £630k, sell for £550k to someone who thinks they have got a bargain because the government are loaning 40%, and everyone is happy.... or at least the developer is happy and that is all that matters (especially in Kingston whilst a property developer was leading the council until recently).
It has been a neat little scam, but I can't help thinking that some of these developers will lose their shirts now that the scam-master has gone. If the national level scam of Help to Buy ever ends, these will look very expensive considering you can buy better flats next to the river or park (rather than on the one-way system) for less than £400k.
If a price of 600k is 40% Govt assisted and above market value .... does that mean the second hand resale value to the next owner-occupier could be as much as 30-40% less (400k or less ) - as the lack of subsidy reverts the value back to market norm psf?
Curious if a lot of new build buyers on ‘help tobuy’ could end up taking a massive cold bath?
alfaman said:
Can see the new overpriced small packed together flats in London going the same way as the new small stuff here in Singapore ...
Combo of oversupply of new small (tiny) units and increased stamp duty ( in SG ) has tanked the new build market for studios and 1 bedders.
Much better to go for older bigger stuff where the units are spaced and laid out so you can’t hear your neighbour sneeze .... just get a refit done on the kitchen and bathroom.
I live in a 1980s refurbed condo which is positively prehistoric ... but has loads of space inside and outside ....
...
Absolutely. The only problem here is that it is the older flats where you can hear your neighbour sneeze. Combo of oversupply of new small (tiny) units and increased stamp duty ( in SG ) has tanked the new build market for studios and 1 bedders.
Much better to go for older bigger stuff where the units are spaced and laid out so you can’t hear your neighbour sneeze .... just get a refit done on the kitchen and bathroom.
I live in a 1980s refurbed condo which is positively prehistoric ... but has loads of space inside and outside ....
...
I have not been into many of these new build blocks, but it would seem that the latest regs have at least had an impact on that when compared to hastily converted houses or cheap 70s blocks.
As you say, that certainly doesn’t mean that there is enough people to buy all of them.
Edited by kingston12 on Thursday 4th October 07:42
alfaman said:
What are your thoughts on the 2nd hand value on ‘scam to sell’?
If a price of 600k is 40% Govt assisted and above market value .... does that mean the second hand resale value to the next owner-occupier could be as much as 30-40% less (400k or less ) - as the lack of subsidy reverts the value back to market norm psf?
Curious if a lot of new build buyers on ‘help tobuy’ could end up taking a massive cold bath?
Worse still for them, it’s a double hit. Buyers are paying a huge premium to move into new build flats anyway.If a price of 600k is 40% Govt assisted and above market value .... does that mean the second hand resale value to the next owner-occupier could be as much as 30-40% less (400k or less ) - as the lack of subsidy reverts the value back to market norm psf?
Curious if a lot of new build buyers on ‘help tobuy’ could end up taking a massive cold bath?
The flat linked above is worth perhaps £400k without help to buy, but that takes into account it is brand new. In 5 years time, it is just another slightly tired flat on the busy one-way system,
That hasn’t mattered too much so far because the underlying market has been rocketing up. Now that seems to have stopped, losses on these will become much more noticeable.
In 2009 we rented a ground floor flat in Royal Quarter overlooking that development. We were paying £1,250 pm. Prompted by this thread I've had a look at how much it would cost now:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/prope...
It seems at the moment the market in Kingston is in the same place it was 10 years ago.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/prope...
It seems at the moment the market in Kingston is in the same place it was 10 years ago.
p1stonhead said:
How do you have a house in such a beautiful bit of ground and then strip all of the character out of it? Completely soulless. anonymous said:
[redacted]
Yep, with the main issue being that this isn't one of those nicer parts. Living in one of the Victorian cottages between the station and Richmond Park is quite nice, down by the river towards Surbiton better still as it brings in the 'fast' trains, but actually living right in Kingston town centre is pretty grim after what has been done to it.Far better to live a few minutes walk away to have access to the good parts and avoid the bad ones.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
That is the key problem in my view. The London borough status and 'enthusiastic' council have allowed developers to build Kingston up to be much more dense than it was ever designed to be whilst the infrastructure has not been improved at all. SWR will kill off any false hope that people had of living a London lifestyle in Kingston. The failed Waterloo upgrade work from last year has actually damaged the service so much that the guards on the trains now refer to the 'usual delays caused by congestion at peak time'. Trains are delayed by 10-15 minutes EVERY day now, meaning that Kingston's already disgraceful 35 minute journey into Waterloo could be 50 minutes. You'd be as quick into London coming from Rugby, even though you are just travelling from the zone 6 suburbs.
Either way, you are right about the price being too high. With the old train service when I was in my 20s I used to love the fact that I could be back in quiet old Surbiton after drinks in town virtually as quick as mates living in rougher parts further in. That was a long time ago, and those places are now much nicer and easier to get to with Uber and the night tube. Zone 6 would have to be much cheaper to attract the 20-sometthing me there now, and these flats are certainly not.
Edited by kingston12 on Thursday 4th October 13:11
When p1stonheads (especially so) and select others slag off a property my heart skips a beat as I click the link! That one’s not mine so I’ll join in too. Someone’s got to really want that one or have a pressing need for some dirty money washing to spend anything near two millions there.
Everything’s been said about flats in central Kingston. Bonkersness pervades there. There must be some very very exposed developers committed to building there now. Not to mention the exposure of hundreds of recent and relatively recent purchasers.
Everything’s been said about flats in central Kingston. Bonkersness pervades there. There must be some very very exposed developers committed to building there now. Not to mention the exposure of hundreds of recent and relatively recent purchasers.
scenario8 said:
Everything’s been said about flats in central Kingston. Bonkersness pervades there. There must be some very very exposed developers committed to building there now. Not to mention the exposure of hundreds of recent and relatively recent purchasers.
I wonder how many of the developers are questioning their commitment to that area already. There is a large development that has been approved on the south side of the one-way system for year. Hoardings went up pretty quickly, but nothing has actually happened yet as far as I can see. Another approval to raze a hideous 1960s shopping centre hasn't moved on at all and new retail tenants are still moving in to the old units.The hoardings and advertising for the first site seem to mention 'London' every other word, which as tonker says Kingston technically is, but practically isn't. This makes me think that they are going for the overseas investor market a few years too late.
If there are any overseas investors left who want to pay £1,000 per sqft for new build flats, they'd probably prefer Nine Elms which is at least properly in London even if transport to the centre is difficult at the moment.
As said on page before. My place has sold for 31% more than I bought it for 5 or so years ago (and it did most of that rise in the first two years) yet it would rent for the exact same as it did when I bought it. Mad.
Hopefully exchanging tomorrow, only went onto the market on 12th of April
Hopefully exchanging tomorrow, only went onto the market on 12th of April
okgo said:
As said on page before. My place has sold for 31% more than I bought it for 5 or so years ago (and it did most of that rise in the first two years) yet it would rent for the exact same as it did when I bought it. Mad.
Hopefully exchanging tomorrow, only went onto the market on 12th of April
Sounds like you’ve had a big result all round .Hopefully exchanging tomorrow, only went onto the market on 12th of April
Nothing worse than the house sitting on the mkt for months on end .
Also depends on the price point given top end stamp duty too as that’s the really hard sell at the moment .
Good luck with it all I complete a week today !
Well we finally competed on Friday despite our horrid neighbours best attempts to sabotage the move by calling the local gas company and claiming there was a leak from our house !
It back fired on them as we refused entry and they ended up digging up the neighbours drive :-)
So glad we are done and moved on .
The whole process is/had been very stressful.
We are currently renting a cottage in the sticks and I’m loving being away from a busy town that was only getting busier . After 22yrs at the same address it was without question the right thing to do and I now have a more positive outlook.
Two more houses in our road appeared for sale just last week too and plans were passed for More dwellings to be built so the timing was spot on .
Good luck to anyone selling up and nearing exchange and completion .
It back fired on them as we refused entry and they ended up digging up the neighbours drive :-)
So glad we are done and moved on .
The whole process is/had been very stressful.
We are currently renting a cottage in the sticks and I’m loving being away from a busy town that was only getting busier . After 22yrs at the same address it was without question the right thing to do and I now have a more positive outlook.
Two more houses in our road appeared for sale just last week too and plans were passed for More dwellings to be built so the timing was spot on .
Good luck to anyone selling up and nearing exchange and completion .
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Similar in the sense we are getting calls asking if we would consider making an offer.Renting is a ball ache and we have a ton of stuff in storage but for the minute it suits.
Annoyingly the wife has found a place and we agreed a price but as previously mentioned the seller hasn't rushed to exchanged and so now I'm going to play them at their own game.
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