How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
Recently sold my mums house in the South Wales valleys after only two viewings and for full asking. Ex council house in a “managed decline” area so far away from the threads Surrey/Chelsea mansions.
Everyone interested were from England and a cash buyer looking to commute. The agents says this is now common due to the new dual carriage way and soon to be free Severn bridge making the commute to Bristol attractive.
Everyone interested were from England and a cash buyer looking to commute. The agents says this is now common due to the new dual carriage way and soon to be free Severn bridge making the commute to Bristol attractive.
Sheepshanks said:
I suppose it depends on the house - if it's unique in some way there may be people waiting for it to come on the market.
True enough but then it’s frustrating when a seller takes 3 hours preparing a house ( as we did) only to find out the viewers aren’t in any position to proceed. Glad we are all done and dusted. Time to focus on our next purchase.
Annoyingly the area we are looking at doesn’t have much for sale and what there is we’ve no interest in.
Bloody typical !
dai1983 said:
Recently sold my mums house in the South Wales valleys after only two viewings and for full asking. Ex council house in a “managed decline” area so far away from the threads Surrey/Chelsea mansions.
Everyone interested were from England and a cash buyer looking to commute. The agents says this is now common due to the new dual carriage way and soon to be free Severn bridge making the commute to Bristol attractive.
I've toyed with this as me and my girlfriend both work in North Bristol. My cynicism says that the traffic will only get worse at the junctions as the Toll Booths are no longer stemming the traffic flow. The Welsh side of the M4 isn't exactly free flowing already and there's about to be more traffic piling in. The six lane diversion of the tunnels should help but it will take them years to argue about the lesser-spotted Newt that will be impacted, oh and it will have to be 40MPH Everyone interested were from England and a cash buyer looking to commute. The agents says this is now common due to the new dual carriage way and soon to be free Severn bridge making the commute to Bristol attractive.
muffinmenace said:
dai1983 said:
Recently sold my mums house in the South Wales valleys after only two viewings and for full asking. Ex council house in a “managed decline” area so far away from the threads Surrey/Chelsea mansions.
Everyone interested were from England and a cash buyer looking to commute. The agents says this is now common due to the new dual carriage way and soon to be free Severn bridge making the commute to Bristol attractive.
I've toyed with this as me and my girlfriend both work in North Bristol. My cynicism says that the traffic will only get worse at the junctions as the Toll Booths are no longer stemming the traffic flow. The Welsh side of the M4 isn't exactly free flowing already and there's about to be more traffic piling in. The six lane diversion of the tunnels should help but it will take them years to argue about the lesser-spotted Newt that will be impacted, oh and it will have to be 40MPH Everyone interested were from England and a cash buyer looking to commute. The agents says this is now common due to the new dual carriage way and soon to be free Severn bridge making the commute to Bristol attractive.
) then it would be an interesting dynamic to house prices immediately around London and the further afield surrounding areas. London area drops a little, more rural areas increase in price a bit.....sounds a bit sci-fi right now but it could be the future - do some laptop work on the commute into work, have a little nap on the way home 
soupdragon1 said:
If we get self driving cars in the near future ( ) then it would be an interesting dynamic to house prices immediately around London and the further afield surrounding areas. London area drops a little, more rural areas increase in price a bit.....sounds a bit sci-fi right now but it could be the future - do some laptop work on the commute into work, have a little nap on the way home
Almost like those new fangled train things. ) then it would be an interesting dynamic to house prices immediately around London and the further afield surrounding areas. London area drops a little, more rural areas increase in price a bit.....sounds a bit sci-fi right now but it could be the future - do some laptop work on the commute into work, have a little nap on the way home muffinmenace said:
I've toyed with this as me and my girlfriend both work in North Bristol. My cynicism says that the traffic will only get worse at the junctions as the Toll Booths are no longer stemming the traffic flow. The Welsh side of the M4 isn't exactly free flowing already and there's about to be more traffic piling in. The six lane diversion of the tunnels should help but it will take them years to argue about the lesser-spotted Newt that will be impacted, oh and it will have to be 40MPH
The parts of the HotV road that are finished seem to be quiet a lot of the time. One viewer said it takes him an hour to get to work travelling through the city anyway. Another factor is a 3 bed house with decent garden or a flat in Bristol and some cash in your pocket. Can see it pushing prices up for locals
I don’t understand it myself as the area has gone downhill loads since I was a kid.
p1stonhead said:
FocusRS3 said:
number2 said:
My flat is coming off the market until next Spring. I've had enough of the no-shows and tyre-kickers this year. And the agent. There must be a school for smarmy twits that churns them out.
Anyway, I'm seriously considering a cheap online agent when I re-enter the fray. This lot https://doorsteps.co.uk/index.php list from £99.
In all likelihood I'll be selling without a chain so that removes a world of complication. I'd prefer to write my own description, I have an EPC and floorplan, and I can take my own photos. The only thing that might stop me next year is the time available.
I can relate to the tyre kicking brigade, we had them all.Anyway, I'm seriously considering a cheap online agent when I re-enter the fray. This lot https://doorsteps.co.uk/index.php list from £99.
In all likelihood I'll be selling without a chain so that removes a world of complication. I'd prefer to write my own description, I have an EPC and floorplan, and I can take my own photos. The only thing that might stop me next year is the time available.
The thing i found most frustrating was the viewers that either hadn't sold themselves or didnt even have their house on the mkt....whats the point !
Some people only want to move to a house they have seen come up. Ive only ever done that. Invariably though I have seen houses in real life I didnt think were worth moving for. Just the way it is. Chicken or Egg - put yours on in the hope something comes up (could be months or years), or see somethign you like then chuck yours on and hope for a quick sale. I have always been the latter.
gibbon said:
soupdragon1 said:
If we get self driving cars in the near future ( ) then it would be an interesting dynamic to house prices immediately around London and the further afield surrounding areas. London area drops a little, more rural areas increase in price a bit.....sounds a bit sci-fi right now but it could be the future - do some laptop work on the commute into work, have a little nap on the way home
Almost like those new fangled train things. ) then it would be an interesting dynamic to house prices immediately around London and the further afield surrounding areas. London area drops a little, more rural areas increase in price a bit.....sounds a bit sci-fi right now but it could be the future - do some laptop work on the commute into work, have a little nap on the way home Property lawyer here. Seemed to be getting quieter on the new instruction front a few weeks ago, working semi-normal hours then went crazy busy and still is. May well slow but right now masses of new work right across the spectrum from shared ownership to multi-million pound properties and some even based on best and finals. Very odd. London instructions still lower than normal. I’m based in Oxon but do lots of London work.
I’ve been reading this thread with interest and given various economic indicators I was expecting to be much quieter. Sample size is only one firm (two offices) but I’m getting instructed on 80 to 100 new ones a month at the mo and 3 other property colleagues in the same office getting between 30 and 60 new instructions each.
Now getting back to getting up at 4.30am with occasional 3.30 so sort of hope it eases a bit but not too much. I like being busy.
Market possibly getting back to being seasonal in the way it was 15+ years ago. Interest rates still low though and likely to remain that way for a while. I’m buying a house myself at the mo. Maybe I could get it cheaper if I wait but maybe not. Like it enough not to want to risk that and hoping to be there long enough for it not to make too much difference.
Lots of people I speak to feel prices will be lower than they are now in a few months and are waiting to buy in case. Even if this happens who knows where the bottom will be. Those same people are still likely to wait further until they perceive an up turn and most of the stock people would then want to buy could be gone quickly or sellers will wait for prices to climb further.
I like to keep plugged in but right now I’m finding it very strange to be this busy.
I’ve been reading this thread with interest and given various economic indicators I was expecting to be much quieter. Sample size is only one firm (two offices) but I’m getting instructed on 80 to 100 new ones a month at the mo and 3 other property colleagues in the same office getting between 30 and 60 new instructions each.
Now getting back to getting up at 4.30am with occasional 3.30 so sort of hope it eases a bit but not too much. I like being busy.
Market possibly getting back to being seasonal in the way it was 15+ years ago. Interest rates still low though and likely to remain that way for a while. I’m buying a house myself at the mo. Maybe I could get it cheaper if I wait but maybe not. Like it enough not to want to risk that and hoping to be there long enough for it not to make too much difference.
Lots of people I speak to feel prices will be lower than they are now in a few months and are waiting to buy in case. Even if this happens who knows where the bottom will be. Those same people are still likely to wait further until they perceive an up turn and most of the stock people would then want to buy could be gone quickly or sellers will wait for prices to climb further.
I like to keep plugged in but right now I’m finding it very strange to be this busy.
crisp packet said:
Now getting back to getting up at 4.30am with occasional 3.30 so sort of hope it eases a bit but not too much. I like being busy.
That sounds absolutely grim mate. I'm a solicitor too but I prefer to get to work at 10am. We aren't doing brain surgery so I suggest you don't work yourself into an early grave.
princeperch said:
crisp packet said:
Now getting back to getting up at 4.30am with occasional 3.30 so sort of hope it eases a bit but not too much. I like being busy.
That sounds absolutely grim mate. I'm a solicitor too but I prefer to get to work at 10am. We aren't doing brain surgery so I suggest you don't work yourself into an early grave.
3. What History Tells Us About a No-Deal Brexit House Price CrashReturn to Top
Past House Price Crashes
Source: Bank of England, Bloomberg Economics
DataText
It's useful to look at the history of crash in house prices to gauge the extent of a future collapse. Bloomberg Economics used the Bank of England's own house price index from 1895. We ignore data before that as it only uses building costs as a very rough proxy. What's striking is that in more than 120 years of housing data, prices have not dropped by anywhere near Carney's 35%, except at the start of the 20th century. Even then, the figures are distorted by the fact that only London prices are used as a substitute for the whole country.
Home values in the capital may have been hit in that period by people moving out into the suburbs with the expansion of the subway network. During the Great Depression, prices only fell by 7% between 1930 and 1936. (10/18/18)
4. From Boom to Bust - How Quickly Have House Prices Recovered?Return to Top
Years Taken to Recover
Exhibit
The housing crash that followed the 2007 credit crunch saw the fastest plunge in prices, but also the quickest recovery. While there appears to be a more recent trend for a quicker turnaround from a collapse in house prices, that probably reflects a more active monetary policy and the unprecedented central back action through quantitative easing. Average prices recovered within seven years of the last crash compared with 20 years in the early 1900's.
The dip in house prices in the early 1950's probably reflected the forced sale of war damaged homes at lower prices while the supply of social housing expanded dramatically. The crash at the end of the 1980's followed a boom under former Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson and a near doubling in interest rates, while the credit crunch triggered the last house price crash. (10/18/18)
House Price Outlook
5. U.K. House Price Growth to Remain in Low Gear Amid Brexit TalksReturn to Top
Research Note: United Kingdom Country Primer
Slow House Price Growth Ahead
Exhibit
House price increases will probably remain relatively subdued over the coming 18 months as annual real income growth only gradually returns to positive territory. The prospect of higher interest rates is also likely to weigh on prices. Still, the lack of properties being put up for sale, with sellers reluctant to come to the market, should put a floor under prices. Stamp duty relief for first-time buyers will only put modest upward pressure on house prices.
For a significant drop to occur, there would need to be an economic shock that caused unemployment to surge or credit conditions to tighten abruptly, triggering distressed sales. Providing Brexit negotiations continue to make progress, there's little reason to think a shock of this sort is imminent. (07/23/18)
6. BE Short-Term U.K. House Price Model Shows Slow, Steady GrowthReturn to Top
Short-Term House Price Projection
DataText
Investor concerns about a U.K. housing crash look overdone. The near-term outlook appears to be steady, as evidenced by the latest RICS data. Bloomberg Economics forecast annual house price growth of 2% at the end of 2018. We expect monetary tightening to affect prices at the margins. The bigger risk stems from the threat of a hard Brexit or a no deal Brexit.
BE have built a short-term forecast model of house price inflation that takes in a range of useful indicators which can proxy price pressure in the pipeline. The model draws on a survey of price expectations among chartered surveyors; a gauge of new buyer inquiries less new instructions to sell; lagged house prices to capture momentum; and two dummy variables to account for a structural break around the time of the financial crisis and another at the start of 2005. (08/10/18)
7. Fixed U.K. Mortgage Rates to Cushion Bank of England Rate HikeReturn to Top
New Mortgages Tend to Be Fixed
DataText
The overall impact on property prices from a 25 basis point interest rate increase by the Bank of England should be marginal. Many existing homeowners are already cushioned by fixing at historically low mortgage rates. New lending on fixed rates soared above 90% in 1Q from 46% in 1Q08. That has left just over 60% of all regulated mortgages on fixed rates compared with about half a decade ago. This arguably somewhat blunts the transmission of monetary policy. Fixed rate mortgages have only been available in the U.K. since 1989.
Past House Price Crashes
Source: Bank of England, Bloomberg Economics
DataText
It's useful to look at the history of crash in house prices to gauge the extent of a future collapse. Bloomberg Economics used the Bank of England's own house price index from 1895. We ignore data before that as it only uses building costs as a very rough proxy. What's striking is that in more than 120 years of housing data, prices have not dropped by anywhere near Carney's 35%, except at the start of the 20th century. Even then, the figures are distorted by the fact that only London prices are used as a substitute for the whole country.
Home values in the capital may have been hit in that period by people moving out into the suburbs with the expansion of the subway network. During the Great Depression, prices only fell by 7% between 1930 and 1936. (10/18/18)
4. From Boom to Bust - How Quickly Have House Prices Recovered?Return to Top
Years Taken to Recover
Exhibit
The housing crash that followed the 2007 credit crunch saw the fastest plunge in prices, but also the quickest recovery. While there appears to be a more recent trend for a quicker turnaround from a collapse in house prices, that probably reflects a more active monetary policy and the unprecedented central back action through quantitative easing. Average prices recovered within seven years of the last crash compared with 20 years in the early 1900's.
The dip in house prices in the early 1950's probably reflected the forced sale of war damaged homes at lower prices while the supply of social housing expanded dramatically. The crash at the end of the 1980's followed a boom under former Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson and a near doubling in interest rates, while the credit crunch triggered the last house price crash. (10/18/18)
House Price Outlook
5. U.K. House Price Growth to Remain in Low Gear Amid Brexit TalksReturn to Top
Research Note: United Kingdom Country Primer
Slow House Price Growth Ahead
Exhibit
House price increases will probably remain relatively subdued over the coming 18 months as annual real income growth only gradually returns to positive territory. The prospect of higher interest rates is also likely to weigh on prices. Still, the lack of properties being put up for sale, with sellers reluctant to come to the market, should put a floor under prices. Stamp duty relief for first-time buyers will only put modest upward pressure on house prices.
For a significant drop to occur, there would need to be an economic shock that caused unemployment to surge or credit conditions to tighten abruptly, triggering distressed sales. Providing Brexit negotiations continue to make progress, there's little reason to think a shock of this sort is imminent. (07/23/18)
6. BE Short-Term U.K. House Price Model Shows Slow, Steady GrowthReturn to Top
Short-Term House Price Projection
DataText
Investor concerns about a U.K. housing crash look overdone. The near-term outlook appears to be steady, as evidenced by the latest RICS data. Bloomberg Economics forecast annual house price growth of 2% at the end of 2018. We expect monetary tightening to affect prices at the margins. The bigger risk stems from the threat of a hard Brexit or a no deal Brexit.
BE have built a short-term forecast model of house price inflation that takes in a range of useful indicators which can proxy price pressure in the pipeline. The model draws on a survey of price expectations among chartered surveyors; a gauge of new buyer inquiries less new instructions to sell; lagged house prices to capture momentum; and two dummy variables to account for a structural break around the time of the financial crisis and another at the start of 2005. (08/10/18)
7. Fixed U.K. Mortgage Rates to Cushion Bank of England Rate HikeReturn to Top
New Mortgages Tend to Be Fixed
DataText
The overall impact on property prices from a 25 basis point interest rate increase by the Bank of England should be marginal. Many existing homeowners are already cushioned by fixing at historically low mortgage rates. New lending on fixed rates soared above 90% in 1Q from 46% in 1Q08. That has left just over 60% of all regulated mortgages on fixed rates compared with about half a decade ago. This arguably somewhat blunts the transmission of monetary policy. Fixed rate mortgages have only been available in the U.K. since 1989.
Just completed a sale on a flat in Islington last week. Only took 15 months from it going on the market with 2 aborted sales inbetween... acheived just over 10% less than the initial sales price. The market is challenging, that's for sure.
I think we did ok all things considered.
I think we did ok all things considered.
Edited by RanchoGrande on Friday 19th October 06:48
Keep on being tempted by a move, feel I’m outgrowing the space available in my current 580sqft 2 bed, 2 bath flat....
Looking in SE London, Zone 3-5 (Beckenham/Bromley/Petts Wood) at +3 bed houses at £550k-£700k. Seen a few which have taken my interest but am a little apprehensive, I really think I’ll struggle to sell my current place at the mortgage valuation, I’d need to sell the lotus to clear my debts to get the mortgage too!
With a wedding next year and all the market uncertainty says wait but I’m getting itchy feet...
Looking in SE London, Zone 3-5 (Beckenham/Bromley/Petts Wood) at +3 bed houses at £550k-£700k. Seen a few which have taken my interest but am a little apprehensive, I really think I’ll struggle to sell my current place at the mortgage valuation, I’d need to sell the lotus to clear my debts to get the mortgage too!
With a wedding next year and all the market uncertainty says wait but I’m getting itchy feet...
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