How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
Mining investigations are down in the SW. The drillers (who we all use) say it's quiet. We are quiet.
The amount of investigations is proportional to the amount of stock selling and going through the conveyancing process. If we are down, that is down. Statistically, there is a low probability that everyone chooses to buy in a non mining area.
I had a chat to my environmental/contamination mate and he says the same thing.
This is proper data here from people who work right in it. Not estate agent double windsor pointy shoes bulls
t,.
The amount of investigations is proportional to the amount of stock selling and going through the conveyancing process. If we are down, that is down. Statistically, there is a low probability that everyone chooses to buy in a non mining area.
I had a chat to my environmental/contamination mate and he says the same thing.
This is proper data here from people who work right in it. Not estate agent double windsor pointy shoes bulls
t,. soxboy said:
I used to be an estate agent and it happened all the time. The one that stood out was 'I like the size of the house and the garden, but I don't like the tiles in the bathroom, so it's a no'!!
They were just being too polite to tell you that in reality the house was an overpriced sthole.Its not scientific but just plugged in my old filters into RM in my local area - 3 bed houses, non new build, parking and garden etc
Approx 60 hits only two or three of which appear to have sold since reopening. One of those was reduced and had been listed since last year - decent house to be fair but we felt overpriced so maybe it was reduced to a decent level. Another was a nice little 3 bed that came on and sold very quick but quite surprising as there are a couple other options in the road a bit cheaper and I felt the listing price was a bit high. Looks like it needs no work though - half decent kitchen which seems to help.
Apart from that all the same old stock, one new listing, couple of 10k price reductions on things that are a good 30k overpriced IMO. Same old same old.
So it doesn't seem the market here is as hot as it was, far from it. This is the SE fyi
Approx 60 hits only two or three of which appear to have sold since reopening. One of those was reduced and had been listed since last year - decent house to be fair but we felt overpriced so maybe it was reduced to a decent level. Another was a nice little 3 bed that came on and sold very quick but quite surprising as there are a couple other options in the road a bit cheaper and I felt the listing price was a bit high. Looks like it needs no work though - half decent kitchen which seems to help.
Apart from that all the same old stock, one new listing, couple of 10k price reductions on things that are a good 30k overpriced IMO. Same old same old.
So it doesn't seem the market here is as hot as it was, far from it. This is the SE fyi
The maddest thing is that when Corona mayhem was in it's fullest of swings, we were the busiest that we've ever been. It was off the scale. It was like people decided to jump on every project or move they were going to make.
I keep having conversations with various people in ground consultancy/site investigation and it's along the lines of "why are we so busy, when's it going to stop". Things have slowed down.
The push happened when the bigger firms had half of their staff off painting their fences. I don't think the staff have come back. I'm not sure how this is going to fare furlough-end wise. Are we going to see some redundancies. A few years ago (we were the first) firms started using GIS software for diddling with maps/plans, rather than acetate sheets, printing at scale, etc, etc. The older firms have got staffing levels from when you needed a gang to work. Something that could take a whole day can be done in less than an hour using software. Many of the older staff don't know what a computer is, beyond pictures of ladies, email and MS Word. We could be looking at quite a chop of people and a big shuffle of the habitat in terms of firms closing etc.
Anyone would think, reading this thread that the virus mayhem is over and it's back to work and everything as normal.
The fact rishi is twitching about the furlough end date suggests that they know there are mass redundancies coming. This is going to have an economic shock, probably a big one. I'm not sure about commercial property, lots of businesses have gone under, or are not going to be what they were beforehand. The various credit streams, payment holidays, etc are going to come to and end and it will be the undoing of some people.
Per usual, we'll just dig in and get on with it. We've been through a few dry patches and it will be fine. My own work is ticking over, but I'm labouring on a local building site to build up a decent head of steam for if it does totally stop. My backup supply teaching is absolutely dead. I know that work, including bacon factory production line type stuff is utterly not happening. If you want a "job" you have a problem, unless you know someone. Anyway, it's good. Too much sat in a deckchair on site investigations watching people do work and office work have made me a bit fatter than I'd like. So far the building site diet (grafting) has seen me lose about 5 belt notches. Good stuff. Why join a gym!
I personally am ignoring the news about CV. I think they called it wrong and are continuing to do so. We needed to all get back to work a long time ago. I have a few big mining jobs in the pipes, including the most biblical hole I've dealt with yet. Scary stuff, might lose the house down this one. I think residential property will take a hit, but there will be themes within the UK as a whole and I imagine Cornwall will be busy still. I'll graft through the summer and see where I am end of september.
I keep having conversations with various people in ground consultancy/site investigation and it's along the lines of "why are we so busy, when's it going to stop". Things have slowed down.
The push happened when the bigger firms had half of their staff off painting their fences. I don't think the staff have come back. I'm not sure how this is going to fare furlough-end wise. Are we going to see some redundancies. A few years ago (we were the first) firms started using GIS software for diddling with maps/plans, rather than acetate sheets, printing at scale, etc, etc. The older firms have got staffing levels from when you needed a gang to work. Something that could take a whole day can be done in less than an hour using software. Many of the older staff don't know what a computer is, beyond pictures of ladies, email and MS Word. We could be looking at quite a chop of people and a big shuffle of the habitat in terms of firms closing etc.
Anyone would think, reading this thread that the virus mayhem is over and it's back to work and everything as normal.
The fact rishi is twitching about the furlough end date suggests that they know there are mass redundancies coming. This is going to have an economic shock, probably a big one. I'm not sure about commercial property, lots of businesses have gone under, or are not going to be what they were beforehand. The various credit streams, payment holidays, etc are going to come to and end and it will be the undoing of some people.
Per usual, we'll just dig in and get on with it. We've been through a few dry patches and it will be fine. My own work is ticking over, but I'm labouring on a local building site to build up a decent head of steam for if it does totally stop. My backup supply teaching is absolutely dead. I know that work, including bacon factory production line type stuff is utterly not happening. If you want a "job" you have a problem, unless you know someone. Anyway, it's good. Too much sat in a deckchair on site investigations watching people do work and office work have made me a bit fatter than I'd like. So far the building site diet (grafting) has seen me lose about 5 belt notches. Good stuff. Why join a gym!
I personally am ignoring the news about CV. I think they called it wrong and are continuing to do so. We needed to all get back to work a long time ago. I have a few big mining jobs in the pipes, including the most biblical hole I've dealt with yet. Scary stuff, might lose the house down this one. I think residential property will take a hit, but there will be themes within the UK as a whole and I imagine Cornwall will be busy still. I'll graft through the summer and see where I am end of september.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
As I may have mentioned previously, I bought this last year.
I lived in it now week from September to March and my wife and I stayed in it 7 weekends and we had a family Christmas in it.
Since March my Lodger has been looking after it, and due to C-19 I've chosen not to visit.
He leaves in 2 weeks time.
I had a heart attack on the 23rd June, so it's got me and my wife thinking hard about our lives going forward.
The local economy is likely to be fked with JCB booting out 100s of staff, last week.
Options ?
1) Rent it out. This pulls up many other options, but could be altered to 3 or even 4 beds at a minimal cost. Could rent out furnished or unfurnished or with 4 beds apply for HMO status.
2) Sell. We would get some cash out, but it's a niche house. Parking is on the road, which is quite busy. The previous owner took a long time to find a buyer.
We'd obviously loose money due to stamp duty and fees, but would we be better waiting a couple of years?
3) Keep it, as a weekend get away. Maybe adding in an Air bnb listing for the weekends when Horse racing is on, and in the summer for Alton Towers.
Apparently my heart attack was stress related so am not stressing, just interested in opinions.
It doesn't look like I'll have work in the area
As I may have mentioned previously, I bought this last year.
I lived in it now week from September to March and my wife and I stayed in it 7 weekends and we had a family Christmas in it.
Since March my Lodger has been looking after it, and due to C-19 I've chosen not to visit.
He leaves in 2 weeks time.
I had a heart attack on the 23rd June, so it's got me and my wife thinking hard about our lives going forward.
The local economy is likely to be f
ked with JCB booting out 100s of staff, last week. Options ?
1) Rent it out. This pulls up many other options, but could be altered to 3 or even 4 beds at a minimal cost. Could rent out furnished or unfurnished or with 4 beds apply for HMO status.
2) Sell. We would get some cash out, but it's a niche house. Parking is on the road, which is quite busy. The previous owner took a long time to find a buyer.
We'd obviously loose money due to stamp duty and fees, but would we be better waiting a couple of years?
3) Keep it, as a weekend get away. Maybe adding in an Air bnb listing for the weekends when Horse racing is on, and in the summer for Alton Towers.
Apparently my heart attack was stress related so am not stressing, just interested in opinions.
It doesn't look like I'll have work in the area
Mining Subsidence Man said:
Mining investigations are down in the SW. The drillers (who we all use) say it's quiet. We are quiet.
The amount of investigations is proportional to the amount of stock selling and going through the conveyancing process. If we are down, that is down. Statistically, there is a low probability that everyone chooses to buy in a non mining area.
I had a chat to my environmental/contamination mate and he says the same thing.
This is proper data here from people who work right in it. Not estate agent double windsor pointy shoes bullst,.
Out of interest, how much of the country’s housing, is built in areas that require mining investigation?The amount of investigations is proportional to the amount of stock selling and going through the conveyancing process. If we are down, that is down. Statistically, there is a low probability that everyone chooses to buy in a non mining area.
I had a chat to my environmental/contamination mate and he says the same thing.
This is proper data here from people who work right in it. Not estate agent double windsor pointy shoes bulls
t,. Pit Pony said:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
As I may have mentioned previously, I bought this last year.
I lived in it now week from September to March and my wife and I stayed in it 7 weekends and we had a family Christmas in it.
Since March my Lodger has been looking after it, and due to C-19 I've chosen not to visit.
He leaves in 2 weeks time.
I had a heart attack on the 23rd June, so it's got me and my wife thinking hard about our lives going forward.
The local economy is likely to be fked with JCB booting out 100s of staff, last week.
Options ?
1) Rent it out. This pulls up many other options, but could be altered to 3 or even 4 beds at a minimal cost. Could rent out furnished or unfurnished or with 4 beds apply for HMO status.
2) Sell. We would get some cash out, but it's a niche house. Parking is on the road, which is quite busy. The previous owner took a long time to find a buyer.
We'd obviously loose money due to stamp duty and fees, but would we be better waiting a couple of years?
3) Keep it, as a weekend get away. Maybe adding in an Air bnb listing for the weekends when Horse racing is on, and in the summer for Alton Towers.
Apparently my heart attack was stress related so am not stressing, just interested in opinions.
It doesn't look like I'll have work in the area
That's a pretty looking house, town location looks a plus. I don't know the market there but it seems quite cheap compared to around here.As I may have mentioned previously, I bought this last year.
I lived in it now week from September to March and my wife and I stayed in it 7 weekends and we had a family Christmas in it.
Since March my Lodger has been looking after it, and due to C-19 I've chosen not to visit.
He leaves in 2 weeks time.
I had a heart attack on the 23rd June, so it's got me and my wife thinking hard about our lives going forward.
The local economy is likely to be f
ked with JCB booting out 100s of staff, last week. Options ?
1) Rent it out. This pulls up many other options, but could be altered to 3 or even 4 beds at a minimal cost. Could rent out furnished or unfurnished or with 4 beds apply for HMO status.
2) Sell. We would get some cash out, but it's a niche house. Parking is on the road, which is quite busy. The previous owner took a long time to find a buyer.
We'd obviously loose money due to stamp duty and fees, but would we be better waiting a couple of years?
3) Keep it, as a weekend get away. Maybe adding in an Air bnb listing for the weekends when Horse racing is on, and in the summer for Alton Towers.
Apparently my heart attack was stress related so am not stressing, just interested in opinions.
It doesn't look like I'll have work in the area
I would have thought that would make a nice Air b&b, cottages 4 you type property, plus you could still use it then as well, doesn't seem like your typical HMO type place to me. Maybe you could try selling as well without really committing to it, chance the market and see? Seems to be mixed conditions at the moment, but as we know you only ever need the one buyer to take a shine to it and your out of it...
possible 6 month stamp duty holiday incoming:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
Not sure it's sensible announcing this, will it not cause a slump in both supply and demand until it's in place?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
Not sure it's sensible announcing this, will it not cause a slump in both supply and demand until it's in place?
Drezza said:
possible 6 month stamp duty holiday incoming:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
Not sure it's sensible announcing this, will it not cause a slump in both supply and demand until it's in place?
It was definitely one of the measures I was expecting, but I agree it seems strange to announce now and not implement until autumn.https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
Not sure it's sensible announcing this, will it not cause a slump in both supply and demand until it's in place?
Drezza said:
possible 6 month stamp duty holiday incoming:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
Not sure it's sensible announcing this, will it not cause a slump in both supply and demand until it's in place?
Announced by whom? https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stamp-duty-holi...
Not sure it's sensible announcing this, will it not cause a slump in both supply and demand until it's in place?
dmahon said:
Ive always been bearish on property as prices have always seemed absurd to me. I even spent far too long posting on House Price Crash Forum. However, even I can see some bullish trends for property:
- Cash rich people turning for bricks and mortar for security
- New round of people looking at BTL for yield now interest rates are pinned to the floor
- People’s homes rising in importance as a lifestyle factor
- People thinking “you only live once” and being a bit more bullish
- People cashing in their chips and leaving London
I personally was happy with our house and had my savings in the markets back in February. Now I find myself in all 5 of those categories above to varying extents.
I think with short term pent up demand and a bit of this, we could remain in silly season for most of the summer.
I think a lot of people underestimate the amount of money "sitting in the wings" waiting for a chance to use it. I know this is anecdotal, but I have several friends sitting on millions that is earning them sod all, and if the right house comes up for the right price, they'll buy it for cash. I'm waiting for planning permission to do a very large garage build. If the proposed stamp duty holiday includes second homes, I'd anticipate the BTL market getting a shot in the arm as well. - Cash rich people turning for bricks and mortar for security
- New round of people looking at BTL for yield now interest rates are pinned to the floor
- People’s homes rising in importance as a lifestyle factor
- People thinking “you only live once” and being a bit more bullish
- People cashing in their chips and leaving London
I personally was happy with our house and had my savings in the markets back in February. Now I find myself in all 5 of those categories above to varying extents.
I think with short term pent up demand and a bit of this, we could remain in silly season for most of the summer.
I must say, a stamp duty holiday seems politically tone deaf at the moment.
Given the facts that (i) we need a huge amount of tax revenue over the next few years and (ii) the housing market appears to be a bright spot of the economy for now, it doesn't make sense as a place to give a tax break.
Given the facts that (i) we need a huge amount of tax revenue over the next few years and (ii) the housing market appears to be a bright spot of the economy for now, it doesn't make sense as a place to give a tax break.
NickCQ said:
I must say, a stamp duty holiday seems politically tone deaf at the moment.
Given the facts that (i) we need a huge amount of tax revenue over the next few years and (ii) the housing market appears to be a bright spot of the economy for now, it doesn't make sense as a place to give a tax break.
Plus you could argue that by not stoking demand in the south east you are not increasing unaffordability for key workers. Also, Boris doesn't need to worry about the northern vote for another 4 years.Given the facts that (i) we need a huge amount of tax revenue over the next few years and (ii) the housing market appears to be a bright spot of the economy for now, it doesn't make sense as a place to give a tax break.
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