How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

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Sheepshanks

32,771 posts

119 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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NickCQ said:
I'm wearing a nice dress shirt at the moment that I could throw in as well? biggrin
I would like to be a party to the conversation where you ask them to share their windfall with you! smile

Jobbo

12,972 posts

264 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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NickCQ said:
The value of the flat just went up £15k
Good luck with that - I doubt the buyer's mortgage valuation will concur laugh

That's not just intended to be flippant; if you change the price they'd have to apply all over again for a new mortgage offer.

NickCQ

5,392 posts

96 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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Jobbo said:
NickCQ said:
The value of the flat just went up £15k
Good luck with that - I doubt the buyer's mortgage valuation will concur.
Cash buyer.

Even if not it wouldn't really matter as the buyer wouldn't need to borrow any more to pay the higher price (they are saving £7.5k cold hard cash and their LTV on purchase price goes down).

I am going to do the numbers properly and have the conversation.
I'm not in a chain and not living in the property so if this blows up the deal... yolo

NickCQ

5,392 posts

96 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
NickCQ said:
I'm wearing a nice dress shirt at the moment that I could throw in as well? biggrin
I would like to be a party to the conversation where you ask them to share their windfall with you! smile
Live updates on this thread beer

V6Alfisti

3,305 posts

227 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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https://www.gov.uk/guidance/stamp-duty-land-tax-te...

This adds a little more clarity as to the structure.

DaveCWK

1,990 posts

174 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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NickCQ said:
DaveCWK said:
Would you actually want to renegotiate/ request more money from your buyer off the back of this? Their tax affairs are theirs surely.
Impact of tax on market price is independent of which side of the deal the tax is levied on.

The value of the flat (which I still own 100% of with no binding contract to sell) just went up £15k, 50/50 split is more than fair.

Especially as the buyer is already getting a £15k discount versus an agreed offer pre-lockdown and was moaning about stamp (i.e. trying to make it my problem) all the way through the price negotiations.
Not really. Whether the buyer was a FTB, in a chain or a 2nd homeowner would have drastically affected their Stamp Duty obligation, but have zero affect on the market price to the seller.

Obviously your negotiation is what it is & perhaps it makes sense, but as a buyer, I'd tell you my existing offer stood.

This measure is intended to help limit the market downturn, not to produce an immediate uplift!

NickCQ

5,392 posts

96 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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DaveCWK said:
Not really. Whether the buyer was a FTB, in a chain or a 2nd homeowner would have drastically affected their Stamp Duty obligation, but have zero affect on the market price to the seller.
Market price is determined by average tax incidence, which depends on the mix of buyers looking at a particular property.

Hence properties that appeal to FTBs / HTB-ers are most sensitive to changes in those taxes, where as £30 mm Mayfair mansions are affected more by the 3% overseas / second home charge. For this change it is moot as the reduction applies across the board.

Fundamentally I do not believe that the c. £15k windfall should accrue 100% to the buyer.

AyBee

10,535 posts

202 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
quotequote all
DaveCWK said:
NickCQ said:
DaveCWK said:
Would you actually want to renegotiate/ request more money from your buyer off the back of this? Their tax affairs are theirs surely.
Impact of tax on market price is independent of which side of the deal the tax is levied on.

The value of the flat (which I still own 100% of with no binding contract to sell) just went up £15k, 50/50 split is more than fair.

Especially as the buyer is already getting a £15k discount versus an agreed offer pre-lockdown and was moaning about stamp (i.e. trying to make it my problem) all the way through the price negotiations.
Not really. Whether the buyer was a FTB, in a chain or a 2nd homeowner would have drastically affected their Stamp Duty obligation, but have zero affect on the market price to the seller.

Obviously your negotiation is what it is & perhaps it makes sense, but as a buyer, I'd tell you my existing offer stood.

This measure is intended to help limit the market downturn, not to produce an immediate uplift!
It's not a £15k uplift in value if it only lasts until March next year! The other side of the coin is you end up without a cash buyer, an empty property or a transaction which goes beyond March at which point the sellers renegotiate at the last minute because they don't have the stamp duty saving anymore.

Seattaken

496 posts

49 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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DaveCWK said:
Not really. Whether the buyer was a FTB, in a chain or a 2nd homeowner would have drastically affected their Stamp Duty obligation, but have zero affect on the market price to the seller.
I don't agree, the increase in Stamp Duty for 2nd home owners had a direct impact on the values of holiday homes and BTL flats,

Seattaken

496 posts

49 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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NickCQ said:
Market price is determined by average tax incidence, which depends on the mix of buyers looking at a particular property.

Hence properties that appeal to FTBs / HTB-ers are most sensitive to changes in those taxes, where as £30 mm Mayfair mansions are affected more by the 3% overseas / second home charge. For this change it is moot as the reduction applies across the board.

Fundamentally I do not believe that the c. £15k windfall should accrue 100% to the buyer.
You are absolutely correct - renegotiate!
If the shoe was on the other foot, and SDLT had increased mid sale, the buyer would.

SteadyAsSheGoes

5,983 posts

213 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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NickCQ said:
Fundamentally I do not believe that the c. £15k windfall should accrue 100% to the buyer.
I can see why you might feel that way as a seller, but at the end of the day it's the buyers tax bill not yours. I'd think of it as an incentive for them to go through with the purchase given the market uncertainty at the moment, rather than a "windfall" of which half is due to you.

Jobbo

12,972 posts

264 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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V6Alfisti said:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/stamp-duty-land-tax-te...

This adds a little more clarity as to the structure.
Just found this myself. Not exactly as set out in the policy paper, unsurprisingly, but it does benefit everyone - including, to my surprise, second home buyers and buy-to-let buyers.

anonymous-user

54 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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Jobbo said:
Just found this myself. Not exactly as set out in the policy paper, unsurprisingly, but it does benefit everyone - including, to my surprise, second home buyers and buy-to-let buyers.
I'm confused now.

"The 3% higher rate for purchases of additional dwellings applies on top of revised standard rates above for the period 8 July 2020 to 31 March 2021."

NickCQ

5,392 posts

96 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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AyBee said:
It's not a £15k uplift in value if it only lasts until March next year!
Yes it is - their anticipated exit price is the same as if the cut never happened, so the fact that it is temporary doesn't matter.

Simply put, let's say market price is £520 and it costs £535 to buy in normal stamp duty environment. Buyer can pay £535 (to me) and no stamp duty and be in the same place (i.e. selling for £520 at some point in the future)

NickCQ

5,392 posts

96 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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C4ME said:
People thinking they can just put their house up by the value of the stamp duty saving need a dose of realism. This is being introduced due to a faltering housing market and to get more people to show interest at the current prices. It is still generally a buyers market.
I think the government's incentive is as much to stimulate all the ancillary economic activity that goes with house moves rather than to pump up prices.

We will see whether I can get my hands on any of the discount. The number of viewings / level of interest I had for the property does not lead me to think it's a buyer's market just yet.

Jobbo

12,972 posts

264 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
quotequote all
C4ME said:
sambucket said:
Jobbo said:
Just found this myself. Not exactly as set out in the policy paper, unsurprisingly, but it does benefit everyone - including, to my surprise, second home buyers and buy-to-let buyers.
I'm confused now.

"The 3% higher rate for purchases of additional dwellings applies on top of revised standard rates above for the period 8 July 2020 to 31 March 2021."
It seems clear enough. All bands add a 3% surcharge onto of the standard rates when purchasing an additional dwelling.
Exactly - you still pay 3% more but the 3% is on top of the reduced rate.

NickCQ

5,392 posts

96 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
quotequote all
C4ME said:
Yup and why would they want to do that?
Because they want to own the property and it is no longer available for purchase at the old price.

Sheepshanks

32,771 posts

119 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
quotequote all
NickCQ said:
Yes it is - their anticipated exit price is the same as if the cut never happened, so the fact that it is temporary doesn't matter.

Simply put, let's say market price is £520 and it costs £535 to buy in normal stamp duty environment. Buyer can pay £535 (to me) and no stamp duty and be in the same place (i.e. selling for £520 at some point in the future)
Regardless, it'll be good going if you can convince the buyer that selling for £520K after paying £535K isn't losing £15K!

You might be OK if you're some way down the line but I would imagine the £500K mark will become a massive psychological barrier even though breaching it only cost a minor sum.

Pit Pony

8,582 posts

121 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
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MG CHRIS said:
Currently looking for my first property in wales. Phoned around for various viewings 80% wont allow viewings because people are living in them the other 20% is either empty houses or the estate agent has told the home owner to leave the house for the time of the viewing.
Also have one viewing for next week where I was told you must wear a face mask think I might cancel that one tbh.

The smaller independents seem to be more sensible in viewings where the large chains are playing it by the book from the nut jobs in the welsh assembly.
Not sure Why you can't just wear a face mask ?

p1stonhead

25,549 posts

167 months

Wednesday 8th July 2020
quotequote all
NickCQ said:
AyBee said:
It's not a £15k uplift in value if it only lasts until March next year!
Yes it is - their anticipated exit price is the same as if the cut never happened, so the fact that it is temporary doesn't matter.

Simply put, let's say market price is £520 and it costs £535 to buy in normal stamp duty environment. Buyer can pay £535 (to me) and no stamp duty and be in the same place (i.e. selling for £520 at some point in the future)
This is an insane stance to take. It’s not your money it’s theirs. Would you be accepting a lower offer if their stamp duty bill went up?

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