How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
andyeds1234 said:
Mining Subsidence Man said:
Mining stuff is picking up here, which suggests that it's either a blip, or people are getting back to "normal"
A few days ago, you said mining work was down the tubes, a few days later it’s getting back to normal?I think a longer term view might be in order...
Anecdotes don’t mean much but my in laws have just sold at asking price having put their house back on the market a week ago.
It was previously taken off in February having sat for 14 months.
Could be random of course but they had 6 viewings in a week and only 6 the previous 6 months.
Looks like there is a bit of built up pressure. Hope they get it over the line before the pain comes a bit later in the year for most people.
It was previously taken off in February having sat for 14 months.
Could be random of course but they had 6 viewings in a week and only 6 the previous 6 months.
Looks like there is a bit of built up pressure. Hope they get it over the line before the pain comes a bit later in the year for most people.
andyeds1234 said:
A few days ago, you said mining work was down the tubes, a few days later it’s getting back to normal?
I think a longer term view might be in order...
Sorry about that, I am doing my own longer term trends. The work is very bunchy, there are a few firms and everyone has their good weeks. The bigger picture is best clarified by talking to the contractors that we all use. I have done this. People are commenting that they have a few good jobs in the bag, rather than the usual stream of private stuff. I think a longer term view might be in order...
I've got a few site investigations to do, which is good for the bank.
Anecdotes of this sort are pretty useful rather than the usual "It's so busy, we're having to do viewings at night" from EAs.
House prices forecast to fall 5% this year and 11% in 2021 despite the Chancellor's stamp duty cut says the centre for economics and business research
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/...
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/...
Edited by V6Alfisti on Friday 10th July 19:22
We sold on the 26th of last month, and are now in rented (purchase fell through due to issues in surveyor report)
Our plan is to sit tight until Autumn.
Yes, on the one hand there's been a SDLT bonus, plus magic money printing.
On the flip side I don't see the economy getting back to normal any time soon. Redundancies announced every day etc. Ultimately confidence doesn't appear to be returning...yet.
Our budget has therefore stayed the same (we weren't looking to max ourselves anyway - although recent history shows throwing caution to the wind is the best approach)
If prices stay the same then no impact, if they fall we'll pick up a deal and if they start rising we'll simply change where we're looking to buy and move a few miles further out.
Employment wise I'm as cautiously confident as I reasonably can be - we've grown year on year and that's continued throughout Covid - our customers still need and value our services. Other parts of the company are worse off however.
To cover the impact the company has reduced salaries on a sliding scale in snr mgmt grades (CEO and board take the biggest hit, reducing impact down the chain, stopping the grade above me) and no pay rises for everyone else. Always the possibility of the salary reduction scheme being extended downwards though - depends on overall results.
Notwithstanding, work have confirmed that even if there was a cure tomorrow WFH, at least a few days a week, is the new norm and there's no going back to 5 days a week in the office.
Our plan is to sit tight until Autumn.
Yes, on the one hand there's been a SDLT bonus, plus magic money printing.
On the flip side I don't see the economy getting back to normal any time soon. Redundancies announced every day etc. Ultimately confidence doesn't appear to be returning...yet.
Our budget has therefore stayed the same (we weren't looking to max ourselves anyway - although recent history shows throwing caution to the wind is the best approach)
If prices stay the same then no impact, if they fall we'll pick up a deal and if they start rising we'll simply change where we're looking to buy and move a few miles further out.
Employment wise I'm as cautiously confident as I reasonably can be - we've grown year on year and that's continued throughout Covid - our customers still need and value our services. Other parts of the company are worse off however.
To cover the impact the company has reduced salaries on a sliding scale in snr mgmt grades (CEO and board take the biggest hit, reducing impact down the chain, stopping the grade above me) and no pay rises for everyone else. Always the possibility of the salary reduction scheme being extended downwards though - depends on overall results.
Notwithstanding, work have confirmed that even if there was a cure tomorrow WFH, at least a few days a week, is the new norm and there's no going back to 5 days a week in the office.
Edited by Previous on Saturday 11th July 10:59
Previous said:
We sold on the 26th of last month, and are now in rented (purchase fell through due to issues in surveyor report)
Our plan is to sit tight until Autumn.
Yes, on the one hand there's been a SDLT bonus, plus magic money printing.
On the flip side I don't see the economy getting back to normal any time soon. Redundancies announced every day etc. Ultimately confidence doesn't appear to be returning...yet.
Our budget has therefore stayed the same (we weren't looking to max ourselves anyway - although recent history shows throwing caution to the wind is the best approach)
If prices stay the same then no impact, if they fall we'll pick up a deal and if they start rising we'll simply change where we're looking to buy and move a few miles further out.
Employment wise I'm as cautiously confident as I reasonably can be - we've grown year on year and that's continued throughout Covid - our customers still need and value our services. Other parts of the company are worse off however.
To cover the impact the company has reduced salaries on a sliding scale in snr mgmt grades (CEO and board take the biggest hit, reducing impact down the chain, stopping the grade above me) and no pay rises for everyone else. Always the possibility of the salary reduction scheme being extended downwards though - depends on overall results.
Notwithstanding, work have confirmed that even if there was a cure tomorrow WFH, at least a few days a week, is the new norm and there's no going back to 5 days a week in the office.
This is something I’m contemplating at the moment. Sell up now, move to rental before it completely grinds to a halt. Sit it out for 6 months and jump back on early next year. The market makes no sense at the moment at all. Our plan is to sit tight until Autumn.
Yes, on the one hand there's been a SDLT bonus, plus magic money printing.
On the flip side I don't see the economy getting back to normal any time soon. Redundancies announced every day etc. Ultimately confidence doesn't appear to be returning...yet.
Our budget has therefore stayed the same (we weren't looking to max ourselves anyway - although recent history shows throwing caution to the wind is the best approach)
If prices stay the same then no impact, if they fall we'll pick up a deal and if they start rising we'll simply change where we're looking to buy and move a few miles further out.
Employment wise I'm as cautiously confident as I reasonably can be - we've grown year on year and that's continued throughout Covid - our customers still need and value our services. Other parts of the company are worse off however.
To cover the impact the company has reduced salaries on a sliding scale in snr mgmt grades (CEO and board take the biggest hit, reducing impact down the chain, stopping the grade above me) and no pay rises for everyone else. Always the possibility of the salary reduction scheme being extended downwards though - depends on overall results.
Notwithstanding, work have confirmed that even if there was a cure tomorrow WFH, at least a few days a week, is the new norm and there's no going back to 5 days a week in the office.
Edited by Previous on Saturday 11th July 10:59
red_slr said:
Dont count your chickens just yet with work / income. I dont think anyone knows just how far down the rabbit hole we are going to go and maybe we are already as deep as its going to get but my gut feeling is we are only about 10% of the way down!
Oh yes... fully agree. There is no way of knowing and I'm very aware that redundancy could be around the corner. No chickens counted, for sure.But what to do?
At least mortgaged there is possibility of payment holidays etc if needed. Renting were paying more than a mortgage payment for an equivalent place.
By staying under max budget we'd have some reserve and could cover the payments on a lower salary if needed to.
Not ideal- but comparatively, and TBH due to nothing more than luck really, in an okay place...or at least appear to be for now.
red_slr said:
Dont count your chickens just yet with work / income. I dont think anyone knows just how far down the rabbit hole we are going to go and maybe we are already as deep as its going to get but my gut feeling is we are only about 10% of the way down!
10% of what metric ?Increased unemployment ? Income levels ? GDP shrinkage ? House prices ? Time ?
Carbon Sasquatch said:
red_slr said:
Dont count your chickens just yet with work / income. I dont think anyone knows just how far down the rabbit hole we are going to go and maybe we are already as deep as its going to get but my gut feeling is we are only about 10% of the way down!
10% of what metric ?Increased unemployment ? Income levels ? GDP shrinkage ? House prices ? Time ?
V6Alfisti said:
House prices forecast to fall 5% this year and 11% in 2021 despite the Chancellor's stamp duty cut says the centre for economics and business research
I had my maisonette up for sale on the west side of Greater London, for 3 weeks prior to lockdown starting, with no serious offers. I had been prepared to accept up to 3% less than the asking price for a quick sale prior to lockdown, estate agent was confident could probably get an offer around 1.5% less than asking price if prepared to hang it out.
I had to wait nearly a month after viewings were allowed to re-start before getting first viewings, but a week ago I got a pretty serious offer, that I refused but said if they go up to xxx I'll take it. They did so and I accepted a final offer that was a bit less than 4.5% of original asking price, which in the circumstances I'm more than happy with to get things moving and bearing in mind what the predictions are for next year.
Keeping fingers crossed now it all goes without a hitch.
This little mini boom to me seems like a many people as possible are trying to get on the ladder before the s
t really happens later in the year.
Getting a mortgage or even having a job may prove mostly impossible for people in a few months.
Make hay while the sunshines hasn’t exploded
t really happens later in the year. Getting a mortgage or even having a job may prove mostly impossible for people in a few months.
Make hay while the sun
p1stonhead said:
This little mini boom to me seems like a many people as possible are trying to get on the ladder before the st really happens later in the year.
Getting a mortgage or even having a job may prove mostly impossible for people in a few months.
Make hay while the sunshines hasn’t exploded
Indeed, this is what a large number of sources are quoting. t really happens later in the year. Getting a mortgage or even having a job may prove mostly impossible for people in a few months.
Make hay while the sun
Seeing more stock enter the market as well (south east London), I think people know that this is the time to try and dispose.
Although the £1-1.4m properties that I have saved, still haven't gone SSTC
p1stonhead said:
This little mini boom to me seems like a many people as possible are trying to get on the ladder before the st really happens later in the year.
Getting a mortgage or even having a job may prove mostly impossible for people in a few months.
Make hay while the sunshines hasn’t exploded
I'd agree with that. Feel slightly sorry for the first time buyers, especially in the South east that have scraped together a 5% deposit only to have the high LTV mortgage rug pulled out from under them. I'm guessing a lot of people if they can't get into a house now will be looking at a few more years of being stuck in rented/shared accommodation. Pleased we managed to complete on our first house just prior to lockdown, even if its value has slid slightly.t really happens later in the year. Getting a mortgage or even having a job may prove mostly impossible for people in a few months.
Make hay while the sun
Darkslider said:
p1stonhead said:
This little mini boom to me seems like a many people as possible are trying to get on the ladder before the st really happens later in the year.
Getting a mortgage or even having a job may prove mostly impossible for people in a few months.
Make hay while the sunshines hasn’t exploded
I'd agree with that. Feel slightly sorry for the first time buyers, especially in the South east that have scraped together a 5% deposit only to have the high LTV mortgage rug pulled out from under them. I'm guessing a lot of people if they can't get into a house now will be looking at a few more years of being stuck in rented/shared accommodation. Pleased we managed to complete on our first house just prior to lockdown, even if its value has slid slightly.t really happens later in the year. Getting a mortgage or even having a job may prove mostly impossible for people in a few months.
Make hay while the sun
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
I linked to this a week or so ago when it came on and see it's now sold stc. Previous ceiling for the road was £9xx fully renovated.
I linked to this a week or so ago when it came on and see it's now sold stc. Previous ceiling for the road was £9xx fully renovated.
princeperch said:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
I linked to this a week or so ago when it came on and see it's now sold stc. Previous ceiling for the road was £9xx fully renovated.
I think this shows how the market differs by area.I linked to this a week or so ago when it came on and see it's now sold stc. Previous ceiling for the road was £9xx fully renovated.
A good friend of mine is trying to buy a decent family house in the Guildford area and coming up against a *very* firm market indeed with good houses near decent schools going above market.
Another colleague/friend is trying to sell a perfectly decent zone 1 flat in Westminster/ City and finding it quite heavy going to get a decent price, although plenty of lowballs.
Is this the escape from London lockdown effect?
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