How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
)Can’t believe what I’m reading in the papers this morning.
Rishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
Rishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 15th July 07:31
I've had a good chat with a load of my peers, we are all flat out. The builders are flying. I had 12 sets of footings to look at yesterday. The site chief said they cannot build them quick enough. The estate agents are flat out and this appears to be working it's way through conveyancing and then there will be a big push of work.
There are not enough days in the week at the moment, I'm going to be working evenings and weekends to catch up. It has been slowish but there seems to be a tide of it.
The developer chap and one of my estate agent mates says this is the "moving to cornwall" lot.
This is going to result in an almighty amount of paperwork.
Edit:- work is a bit "bunchy" anyway, it's been a bit stop/start/slow until now. This appears to be a real tide of people moving in the SW.
One of the other firms appear to be selling their building....so perhaps they've been squeezed through the slow period.
It will be interesting whether this results in new estates being planned/built and more importantly, having their holes filled by me!
There are not enough days in the week at the moment, I'm going to be working evenings and weekends to catch up. It has been slowish but there seems to be a tide of it.
The developer chap and one of my estate agent mates says this is the "moving to cornwall" lot.
This is going to result in an almighty amount of paperwork.
Edit:- work is a bit "bunchy" anyway, it's been a bit stop/start/slow until now. This appears to be a real tide of people moving in the SW.
One of the other firms appear to be selling their building....so perhaps they've been squeezed through the slow period.
It will be interesting whether this results in new estates being planned/built and more importantly, having their holes filled by me!
Edited by Mining Subsidence Man on Wednesday 15th July 07:40
1974nc said:
Can’t believe what I’m reading in the papers this morning.
Rishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
I read in the Daily Mail that he had asked for a review into CGT. Nothing else, just a review into impact of different strategies.Rishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
Edited by 1974nc on Wednesday 15th July 07:31
As I got my news today about this from a quality news site, I am of the opinion that it is eminently sensible of the Chancellor to explore all avenues in these dark times.
You should ditch your current newspaper and read the Daily Mail too, and in general, governments tend to do reviews/consultations into major changes that may have unintended consequences or lose them votes. They float the ideas in public and see the reaction.
Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 15th July 07:41
hyphen said:
1974nc said:
Can’t believe what I’m reading in the papers this morning.
Rishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
I read in the Daily Mail that he had asked for a review into CGT. Nothing else, just a review into impact of different strategies.Rishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 15th July 07:31
As I got my news today about this from a quality news site, I am of the opinion that it is eminently sensible of the Chancellor to explore all avenues in these dark times.
You should ditch your current newspaper and read the Daily Mail too, and in general, governments tend to do reviews/consultations into major changes that may have unintended consequences or lose them votes. They float the ideas in public and see the reaction.
Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 15th July 07:41
Have a look lol
The review will examine rules that charge up to 28 per cent on gains from residential property and 20 per cent on other assets.
It will also look at whether allowances and reliefs, such as the exemption when selling your main home, could be simplified or scrapped.
But experts suggest the review could primarily serve as a way to raise funds.
Last night tax expert Mike Warburton told the Daily Telegraph: ‘I don’t think this is about simplifying tax, I think it’s about raising revenue.
It will also look at whether allowances and reliefs, such as the exemption when selling your main home, could be simplified or scrapped.
But experts suggest the review could primarily serve as a way to raise funds.
Last night tax expert Mike Warburton told the Daily Telegraph: ‘I don’t think this is about simplifying tax, I think it’s about raising revenue.
1974nc said:
Can’t believe what I’m reading in the papers this morning.
Rishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
True, but tax rates and growth rates don’t seem to be negatively correlated. Many countries had high growth rates coupled with high tax rates (Japan, US, Korea, France, China etc). Growth appears to be more correlated with increased inputs (capital and labour) and productivity.Rishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
Edited by 1974nc on Wednesday 15th July 07:31
wisbech said:
True, but tax rates and growth rates don’t seem to be negatively correlated. Many countries had high growth rates coupled with high tax rates (Japan, US, Korea, France, China etc). Growth appears to be more correlated with increased inputs (capital and labour) and productivity.
Japan??p1stonhead said:
Would likely be political suicide if they did CGT on main residence, but they have 4 more years in power to try and get people to forget....
If they’re gonna do it they need to do it sooner rather than later.
Mental plan though. I don’t think they’ll do it.
Wouldn’t this have one of two outcomes?If they’re gonna do it they need to do it sooner rather than later.
Mental plan though. I don’t think they’ll do it.
1 - no one sells up and the housing market grinds to a virtual halt.
2- sellers put up prices to cover the tax shortfall so a 300k house is now 400k?
1974nc said:
p1stonhead said:
Would likely be political suicide if they did CGT on main residence, but they have 4 more years in power to try and get people to forget....
If they’re gonna do it they need to do it sooner rather than later.
Mental plan though. I don’t think they’ll do it.
Wouldn’t this have one of two outcomes?If they’re gonna do it they need to do it sooner rather than later.
Mental plan though. I don’t think they’ll do it.
1 - no one sells up and the housing market grinds to a virtual halt.
2- sellers put up prices to cover the tax shortfall so a 300k house is now 400k?
But it’s so complicated. You’d have to work out what you’ve spent since buying on maintenance etc and get a deduction etc. It won’t just be buy vs sell price.
Accountants will be in heaven.
p1stonhead said:
Would likely be political suicide if they did CGT on main residence, but they have 4 more years in power to try and get people to forget....
If they’re gonna do it they need to do it sooner rather than later.
Mental plan though. I don’t think they’ll do it.
How would it even work? Would it be based on increase in value from the date of introduction or backdated?If they’re gonna do it they need to do it sooner rather than later.
Mental plan though. I don’t think they’ll do it.
Backdating would be a disaster in a lot of ways. There are a lot of people who would have bought houses for next to nothing in the 80s that are now worth a fortune. Why would move, even with generous indexing?
Timing is another issue. It would seem totally crazy to put it in anytime soon given the recent stamp duty cut, but as you say introducing it near the end of the Parliament wouldn’t work either.
menousername said:
wisbech said:
True, but tax rates and growth rates don’t seem to be negatively correlated. Many countries had high growth rates coupled with high tax rates (Japan, US, Korea, France, China etc). Growth appears to be more correlated with increased inputs (capital and labour) and productivity.
Japan??kingston12 said:
p1stonhead said:
Would likely be political suicide if they did CGT on main residence, but they have 4 more years in power to try and get people to forget....
If they’re gonna do it they need to do it sooner rather than later.
Mental plan though. I don’t think they’ll do it.
How would it even work? Would it be based on increase in value from the date of introduction or backdated?If they’re gonna do it they need to do it sooner rather than later.
Mental plan though. I don’t think they’ll do it.
Backdating would be a disaster in a lot of ways. There are a lot of people who would have bought houses for next to nothing in the 80s that are now worth a fortune. Why would move, even with generous indexing?
Timing is another issue. It would seem totally crazy to put it in anytime soon given the recent stamp duty cut, but as you say introducing it near the end of the Parliament wouldn’t work either.
Not sure how in practice it would work for someone with a million quid house they bought for £10 though...
AyBee said:
You're only taxed on the gain, if any, so I don't see why it would kill the market. It'll just be something you need to factor in when looking to move.
It would mean that far less people would be able to afford to move at current prices. It is the equity in current properties that most use to secure their next one, so taking up to 28% of that away is bound to cause affordability problems.Some would see this as an advantage, because it would cause longer term downward pressure on prices, but I don’t get the impression that is what the government is looking for now.
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