How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
Wife's friends house on market, decent family house, been on one week. Received offer at 25% below asking 'because Covid', told to go forth. Then received offer from another party at asking price, accepted. First party with offensive offer come back and try to offer above asking, told again to go forth.
marky911 said:
Yes it’s happening everywhere I think. Up here in Northumberland decent stuff is selling quickly.
It’s just the spike after the initial event. A correction is coming. See where we are in a years time.
Our BTL remortgage completed yesterday thankfully and the sale of our home completed today.
Yippee! Money in the bank and we are in our little rental place for a while.
The crap hasn’t even begun to unfold yet. Everyone’s happy sat outside the pubs in the sunshine. That’s not gonna happen when winter sets in.
Theatres, nightclubs, stadium events, they’re all screwed.
How anyone thinks a dip isn’t coming is beyond me but we all have our own point of view.
I’m looking at buying more BTLs and have a load to view on Monday. I’ll be making cheeky bids though as I’m in no rush. Plenty of time to weed out the forced sales.
I’m a cash buyer. Will buy, freshen up then mortgage it for full value, rinse repeat.
No rush though. Noooooo rush.
Same here in Leeds, some crazy prices going on and im weirdly enough in the same boat as you, remortgage of a btl burning a hole in my pocket waiting for sIt’s just the spike after the initial event. A correction is coming. See where we are in a years time.
Our BTL remortgage completed yesterday thankfully and the sale of our home completed today.
Yippee! Money in the bank and we are in our little rental place for a while.
The crap hasn’t even begun to unfold yet. Everyone’s happy sat outside the pubs in the sunshine. That’s not gonna happen when winter sets in.
Theatres, nightclubs, stadium events, they’re all screwed.
How anyone thinks a dip isn’t coming is beyond me but we all have our own point of view.
I’m looking at buying more BTLs and have a load to view on Monday. I’ll be making cheeky bids though as I’m in no rush. Plenty of time to weed out the forced sales.
I’m a cash buyer. Will buy, freshen up then mortgage it for full value, rinse repeat.
No rush though. Noooooo rush.
t to hit the fan like it did in 08/09. Meanwhile the rents are through the roof and void periods are none existent due to crazy demand on the rental front too. We've just exchanged, marketed as offers in excess of, got our price (which was actually £50K more than the lowest we'd have accepted). The offer was made on 17th June, we complete next Friday! Fastest sale in my personal history! Homeless in a fortnight 
There was a flurry coming on in our search criteria a month ago, but it seems to have seriously slowed now. We're going to sit it out and see what happens later into the Autumn.
There was a flurry coming on in our search criteria a month ago, but it seems to have seriously slowed now. We're going to sit it out and see what happens later into the Autumn.
Algarve said:
tim0409 said:
We are in a real quandary at the moment; we built our house 10 years ago in a beautiful coastal conservation village 20 miles from Edinburgh. We had to pay quite a bit for the land, and I did the vast majority of the building work (assisted by my wife) and were lucky to end up will a lovely house.
Unfortunately our plans for a family didn't work out, so we don't really need a four bedroom house. Just before lockdown we decided to put in on the market with a view to moving to rental accommodation for 6-12 months whilst I found another project (ideally a bit of land), with a safeguard of reserving a plot/house on a new build estate (£320k) in a decent area nearby; this was more my wife's idea!
We had the home report carried out the day before lockdown, and the value came back at £490k, which was quite a bit more than we anticipated as there aren't any comparable properties in the village. We held off until the property market opened up, and since then we have had a lot of interest and the agent thinks we could achieve circa £515k with a closing date. All good so far, but we are now wondering if we had made the correct decision to put it on the market...
Upside to selling -
Selling at what is likely to be the top of the market (although the area has always held firm)
Pay off all debt
Great position to buy land when it comes up
Afford to do more of things we want to do.
Upside for staying put -
During lockdown (working from home) we have really enjoyed the house, and since getting a dog we have made the most of the local beaches etc.
Building another house will be stressful
On reflection, a new build estate doesn't really appeal to me.
Renting would be expensive in the short term.
In fairness to the agent and the viewers we really need to make a decision in the next 48 hours....
Its one of the biggest decisions you'll likely ever have to make.... I wouldn't feel like I had to rush a decision just for an agents convenience. Take as long as you need. If they don't like it... too bad. You can always get another agent if needed. Better that than feeling rushed into selling then wishing you hadn't.Unfortunately our plans for a family didn't work out, so we don't really need a four bedroom house. Just before lockdown we decided to put in on the market with a view to moving to rental accommodation for 6-12 months whilst I found another project (ideally a bit of land), with a safeguard of reserving a plot/house on a new build estate (£320k) in a decent area nearby; this was more my wife's idea!
We had the home report carried out the day before lockdown, and the value came back at £490k, which was quite a bit more than we anticipated as there aren't any comparable properties in the village. We held off until the property market opened up, and since then we have had a lot of interest and the agent thinks we could achieve circa £515k with a closing date. All good so far, but we are now wondering if we had made the correct decision to put it on the market...
Upside to selling -
Selling at what is likely to be the top of the market (although the area has always held firm)
Pay off all debt
Great position to buy land when it comes up
Afford to do more of things we want to do.
Upside for staying put -
During lockdown (working from home) we have really enjoyed the house, and since getting a dog we have made the most of the local beaches etc.
Building another house will be stressful
On reflection, a new build estate doesn't really appeal to me.
Renting would be expensive in the short term.
In fairness to the agent and the viewers we really need to make a decision in the next 48 hours....
It does seem like it's probably the clever thing to sell at the moment if you were thinking of that anyhow, take a good price, rent, and wait for the market to drop. Which I think is inevitable.
Personally though, I'd rather just own a decent house in a place where I want to live and ride the peaks and troughs. Could do without the hassle of mucking about with renting and diving in and out of the market, even if I thought it was time to do a move (which it isn't for us).
Personally though, I'd rather just own a decent house in a place where I want to live and ride the peaks and troughs. Could do without the hassle of mucking about with renting and diving in and out of the market, even if I thought it was time to do a move (which it isn't for us).
SteadyAsSheGoes said:
It does seem like it's probably the clever thing to sell at the moment if you were thinking of that anyhow, take a good price, rent, and wait for the market to drop. Which I think is inevitable.
Personally though, I'd rather just own a decent house in a place where I want to live and ride the peaks and troughs. Could do without the hassle of mucking about with renting and diving in and out of the market, even if I thought it was time to do a move (which it isn't for us).
Agree. If you are going to move now, selling to rent for a bit is surely an easy trade if you can face the hassle. Being chain free is probably worth a few points off even before the inevitable drop. Personally though, I'd rather just own a decent house in a place where I want to live and ride the peaks and troughs. Could do without the hassle of mucking about with renting and diving in and out of the market, even if I thought it was time to do a move (which it isn't for us).
I'm looking to buy my first home soon, and I was wondering what peoples' thoughts were about that. Should I buy now or wait 6 months or longer?
Based on what I can afford, I'd be looking for a 2 bed maisonette, preferably with a garage - a house would be nice if within range. Price range 300ish, maybe 350 at a push. I live in South London and work in and around London, although not in the city. I'd like to stay within the M25 as I enjoy the convenience it brings, as well as having friends and family close by. I was considering South London/Surrey as somewhere to buy a place, although 300k means I'd have to be well out of London for what I want. Having a garage is key - and an 'en-bloc' garage will not do!
So one of the considerations I need to make is whether to stay within the M25 or go outside it? On one hand it doesn't matter, on the other, it may be better to live within zone 6 for property value. I don't really use the train much as I commute by car. But it is nice to be able to catch a fast train into the city on those odd occasions.
Then there is the question of which area to move to... stay in South London? Move to Surrey? West London perhaps?
East London has crossed my mind, but I absolutely hate driving through it. And the A13 boils my piss. Surrey or West London would be a nice compromise as I can get to the A3 easily, and from there going North, South, or West is easy. The only thing stopping me from looking at North London is not knowing anyone there or close by, and having to travel to the other side of London to see people isn't ideal.
So in short, buy now or wait? Buy within M25 or outside? Which area to move to?
Fill me with your creamy wisdom.
Based on what I can afford, I'd be looking for a 2 bed maisonette, preferably with a garage - a house would be nice if within range. Price range 300ish, maybe 350 at a push. I live in South London and work in and around London, although not in the city. I'd like to stay within the M25 as I enjoy the convenience it brings, as well as having friends and family close by. I was considering South London/Surrey as somewhere to buy a place, although 300k means I'd have to be well out of London for what I want. Having a garage is key - and an 'en-bloc' garage will not do!
So one of the considerations I need to make is whether to stay within the M25 or go outside it? On one hand it doesn't matter, on the other, it may be better to live within zone 6 for property value. I don't really use the train much as I commute by car. But it is nice to be able to catch a fast train into the city on those odd occasions.
Then there is the question of which area to move to... stay in South London? Move to Surrey? West London perhaps?
East London has crossed my mind, but I absolutely hate driving through it. And the A13 boils my piss. Surrey or West London would be a nice compromise as I can get to the A3 easily, and from there going North, South, or West is easy. The only thing stopping me from looking at North London is not knowing anyone there or close by, and having to travel to the other side of London to see people isn't ideal.
So in short, buy now or wait? Buy within M25 or outside? Which area to move to?
Fill me with your creamy wisdom.
Edited by fiju on Sunday 19th July 02:00
fiju said:
Fill me with your creamy wisdom.
All I will say as someone that's lived in dalston, bow and now Leytonstone over a period of 12 odd years, if you go into a the majority of pubs and ask an old east ender to fill you with his creamy wisdom, it's very likely you will get a punch in the chops. Edited by fiju on Sunday 19th July 02:00
fiju said:
300k is not insignificant. Yes, it's the change in stamp duty that has prompted this decision.
Where are you in S London, would you consider SE? Somewhere like Sidcup might get what you wantThis is Garage En Bloc though
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
Bexleyheath
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
I’d have thought that outer-S London would have more of that type of property than further out into Surrey.
I agree with the post above that SE is likely to be a better hunting ground at that budget than SW.
The upside is that you don’t need to use the train that often, so concentrating the search away from stations with fast and frequent services will make the biggest saving.
In terms of timing, no one really knows. The natural trajectory for house prices has to be down, even if unemployment and recession are on the very best side of expectation.
Who knows what miracle Rishi has up his sleeve to counteract that though? Many more billions of QE, further stamp duty cuts, negative interest rates, Help to Buy on ‘second hand’ properties are all available to prop-up prices if that’s what he wants to do.
I agree with the post above that SE is likely to be a better hunting ground at that budget than SW.
The upside is that you don’t need to use the train that often, so concentrating the search away from stations with fast and frequent services will make the biggest saving.
In terms of timing, no one really knows. The natural trajectory for house prices has to be down, even if unemployment and recession are on the very best side of expectation.
Who knows what miracle Rishi has up his sleeve to counteract that though? Many more billions of QE, further stamp duty cuts, negative interest rates, Help to Buy on ‘second hand’ properties are all available to prop-up prices if that’s what he wants to do.
fiju said:
I'm looking to buy my first home soon, and I was wondering what peoples' thoughts were about that. Should I buy now or wait 6 months or longer?
Theoretically, using past data, unemployment won’t peak until 2023, house prices will inversely track the unemployment rate it and house prices won’t bottom until then. there will be a euphoric bounce in the jobs market once the vaccine is rolled out but all bear markets rally. If it were me, i would wait until next late spring and then go hunting. If it’s a first time buy some of these new build schemes look mighty tempting.
1974nc said:
Can’t believe what I’m reading in the papers this morning.
Rishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
Or a rush on people trying to sell to take the profit out of their houses before the tax comes inRishi ‘considering’ putting in CGT for all house sales including main residence! To pay back the deficit from Covid...
That would surely kill the housing market stone dead?
You can’t tax a country into prosperity
Edited by 1974nc on Wednesday 15th July 07:31
Cornwall is absolutely flying. Following the quiet spell, we are busy again. To the point that I am ruined.
The noise coming out of estate agents and developers is that there are multiples of the usual levels of everything (say x6) and most of these are people wanting to come down here.
One estate that I am doing some remedial work on (all houses already sold) had a few people show up and ask where the showhome was.
The estate agents report lots of sales, then it works through conveyancing and then mining gets flagged up. We are preparing to go full blast.
The noise coming out of estate agents and developers is that there are multiples of the usual levels of everything (say x6) and most of these are people wanting to come down here.
One estate that I am doing some remedial work on (all houses already sold) had a few people show up and ask where the showhome was.
The estate agents report lots of sales, then it works through conveyancing and then mining gets flagged up. We are preparing to go full blast.
Mining Subsidence Man said:
Cornwall is absolutely flying. Following the quiet spell, we are busy again. To the point that I am ruined.
The noise coming out of estate agents and developers is that there are multiples of the usual levels of everything (say x6) and most of these are people wanting to come down here.
One estate that I am doing some remedial work on (all houses already sold) had a few people show up and ask where the showhome was.
The estate agents report lots of sales, then it works through conveyancing and then mining gets flagged up. We are preparing to go full blast.
In a few days you’ve gone from quiet / great depression is coming, to executive burn out....?The noise coming out of estate agents and developers is that there are multiples of the usual levels of everything (say x6) and most of these are people wanting to come down here.
One estate that I am doing some remedial work on (all houses already sold) had a few people show up and ask where the showhome was.
The estate agents report lots of sales, then it works through conveyancing and then mining gets flagged up. We are preparing to go full blast.
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