How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
kingston12 said:
How was the market there before? It appears that in a lot of places have just paused for CV19 and then carried on with previous trends.
I'm in Surbiton and that's what's happened here. The more expensive part with easy access to the station and river seem to have higher prices than last year and a lot seem to be going under offer, whilst the cheaper part has a few reductions that are new lows for the area and are still not selling. Flats struggling all over, just as before.
I still think that the more expensive part of town will be a 'net loser' if 2-3 days WFH becomes widespread. It's a nice area, but you are paying a reasonably large premium for the commute and I can't see why a lot of people would do that if they aren't using it as often. We'll see.
Seemed to be slowing in the run up to Christmas last year although things did seem to sell stillI'm in Surbiton and that's what's happened here. The more expensive part with easy access to the station and river seem to have higher prices than last year and a lot seem to be going under offer, whilst the cheaper part has a few reductions that are new lows for the area and are still not selling. Flats struggling all over, just as before.
I still think that the more expensive part of town will be a 'net loser' if 2-3 days WFH becomes widespread. It's a nice area, but you are paying a reasonably large premium for the commute and I can't see why a lot of people would do that if they aren't using it as often. We'll see.
Nothing in Jan - Mar and from what I can tell nothing much happening now.
Lots of new builds going on but at a higher price point so not sure if those are impacting things. Most would have come in under SD threshold and I would have thought the perks of buying one would have been developers offering to cover the SD but who knows - they do not appear to be good value anyway
menousername said:
Confused by this- I’m in the SE - decent enough commute into London - for daily commuting it can be a bit of a slog but if you were predicting a 2 or 3 day working week it would be the perfect place to relocate to.
Plugged the same filters into RM - Usual 3/4 bedders, drive, garage etc - nothing is selling. Same houses advertised, with a few modest reductions, and with barely any new listings and hardly any that have recently gone STC.
I've been looking properly since lockdown ended, seems to me anything nice/well priced had been moving relatively quickly post lockdown, albeit with it being more of a buyers market and good discounts potentially on the table. However, there were plenty of houses clearly nobody was interested in, that had been on the market months. No surprise now those houses are still on the market and not really moving, but anything nice and or again well priced is now almost gone before I've even enquired, and at asking. Unsurprisingly as there's clearly a bit of a rush on with buyers looking to capitalise on the stamp duty reduction, however, that now essentially looks to have been priced in to asking prices in terms of offers now being at asking vs. the previous discount. Plugged the same filters into RM - Usual 3/4 bedders, drive, garage etc - nothing is selling. Same houses advertised, with a few modest reductions, and with barely any new listings and hardly any that have recently gone STC.
I would have thought it's likely this initial wave of buying is probably going to be relatively short-lived before things settle down towards the end of the year, and the furlough/economy situation starts to bite a bit more.
Watched a video on youtube last night by a US property guy and he was reporting very similar situation there to here. Good stock moving very quickly at or above asking price despite job losses and the markets being artificially kept up by QE and other guff such as low interest rates.
His prediction, at the end of the year or just into next year will see a large change (down) in property prices.
Apparently the only magic trick the US govt has left to play is to reduce sales taxes on property (ring any bells.....), which could delay things perhaps by 6 months.
His prediction, at the end of the year or just into next year will see a large change (down) in property prices.
Apparently the only magic trick the US govt has left to play is to reduce sales taxes on property (ring any bells.....), which could delay things perhaps by 6 months.
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
Keep coming back to this idea of the furlough & job losses somewhat restricted to predominantly hospitality / below average or average earners. Those whom do not tend to buy property and only rent for the majority of their lives. Ergo property buying power is not going to be massively affected, granted owners of the business loosing the staff after shutting up shop will have reduced buying power but they’re a fractional 1/5th - 1/10th minority of the above mentioned doomed workforce.
I’d be willing to suggest those doomed workers would be set back some margin from being in the position to buy and therefore will be in rented accom for an even longer foreseeable, which bolsters house prices where rent yields are good (basically anywhere).
HH
Bit of a blinkered view. Industries that would be negatively impacted by Armageddon in the retail and leisure sectors:I’d be willing to suggest those doomed workers would be set back some margin from being in the position to buy and therefore will be in rented accom for an even longer foreseeable, which bolsters house prices where rent yields are good (basically anywhere).
HH
Distribution companies
Food wholesalers
Florists
Gas suppliers
Recruitment consultants
Fit out contractors
Sound and lighting engineers
Design consultants
Media consultants
Advertising agencies
Pension funds
Insurance companies
High street banks
Solicitors
Property consultants
Property companies
Local authorities - Business Rates, parking charges
Taxi operators
Window cleaners
Accountants
Farmers
Beverage producers and distributors
Display companies
I'm sure there's plenty more, but you get the idea. If a bar employing minimum wage staff goes under, yes a load of 20 somethings will immediately lose their job, but also their accountant loses a client, as does their solicitor, as does their tax consultant, as does their window cleaner, etc, etc.
If there is mass unemployment coming down the track there will be plenty of solicitors, architects and accountants losing their jobs or taking pay cuts.
kingston12 said:
How was the market there before? It appears that in a lot of places have just paused for CV19 and then carried on with previous trends.
I'm in Surbiton and that's what's happened here. The more expensive part with easy access to the station and river seem to have higher prices than last year and a lot seem to be going under offer, whilst the cheaper part has a few reductions that are new lows for the area and are still not selling. Flats struggling all over, just as before.
I still think that the more expensive part of town will be a 'net loser' if 2-3 days WFH becomes widespread. It's a nice area, but you are paying a reasonably large premium for the commute and I can't see why a lot of people would do that if they aren't using it as often. We'll see.
What I am seeing is the same as "menousername" I'm in Surbiton and that's what's happened here. The more expensive part with easy access to the station and river seem to have higher prices than last year and a lot seem to be going under offer, whilst the cheaper part has a few reductions that are new lows for the area and are still not selling. Flats struggling all over, just as before.
I still think that the more expensive part of town will be a 'net loser' if 2-3 days WFH becomes widespread. It's a nice area, but you are paying a reasonably large premium for the commute and I can't see why a lot of people would do that if they aren't using it as often. We'll see.
Nothing is selling over £750k, just had a 50k reduction email (after 2 weeks on the market) on a nice enough £900k semi in SE London which I am sure in normal times would have gone.
Anything over £1m is even worse off (nicest areas/large desirable homes) in the best streets - not a single one has gone from my tracked list that I started 6 weeks or so ago. Before covid - things appeared to be moving.
That's not to say the wider market isn't seeing the expected post lockdown bounce, still expecting that to cool significantly (at least in large parts of London) post October once furlough is removed/more bad news rolls in.
There's also a few higher LTV mortgages coming back but with much greater restrictions/questioning. The market is nervous...
Seller's also seem to be more nervous than usual whether it's related to jobs or fears of future values i.e recent sold houses keep coming back on the market i.e this sold in Feb 2020 (pre-covid but has been back on the market since May 2020)
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
V6Alfisti said:
There's also a few higher LTV mortgages coming back but with much greater restrictions/questioning. The market is nervous...
I think a lot of this is down to service levels too. The odd mid-sized lender comes back to the 90% space, gets whacked with ALL of the demand, can't keep its service levels and withdraws again. Seems to be easing a bit now with Nationwide coming back, Metro etc. whatleytom said:
I think a lot of this is down to service levels too. The odd mid-sized lender comes back to the 90% space, gets whacked with ALL of the demand, can't keep its service levels and withdraws again. Seems to be easing a bit now with Nationwide coming back, Metro etc.
Some certainly but there has been direct statements from providers such as Nationwide stating they are looking to protect clients from negative equity. Their words not mine....Since then they have brought some back at higher rates and tighter restrictions. All quite sensible.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Monday 20th July 16:13
V6Alfisti said:
Some certainly but there has been direct statements from providers such as Nationwide stating they are looking to protect clients from negative equity. Their words not mine....
Mandy Rice-Davies applies... better to go for the 'playing it safe' soundbite than admit that your 30+ year old computer systems can't handle people working remotely 
NickCQ said:
Mandy Rice-Davies applies... better to go for the 'playing it safe' soundbite than admit that your 30+ year old computer systems can't handle people working remotely
A company stating the product they offer financing for is likely to fall, then when they bring the product back they do so at a higher rate (to represent a higher risk) and add even more qualification questions (to reduce their exposure) - thus increasing the burden on the sales/IT team but decreasing their risk.Doesn't add up that this is a "cover" for their reduced capacity due to remote work. Although clearly it has limited capacity, as pretty much every bank I have spoken to in the last few days have plastered all over their website and automated telephone prompts.
Let alone other banks still running risk averse measures such as not including the full bonus/pre-maternity pay e.t.c .
Ive had similar experience in wales even with the restriction on views for occupied houses. Had a viewing for a 3 bed house all nice inside good sized garage and good garden up at 105k had a phone call this morning saying the house is sold and they only started doing viewings today. Several others that have been up for less than a week are sold. However anything over 125k in the area or just generally over priced just sitting put with no offers.
I can borrow 110k which is top end so looking around the 100k mark ive decided to wait later on in the year and build up some more savings just paid of my car so now debt free and can easily put away £1000-1200 a month and work is pretty busy atm so scope for earning more.
Im at around 15k atm so aiming for 25k mark trying to put down the biggest amount of deposit as I can.
I can borrow 110k which is top end so looking around the 100k mark ive decided to wait later on in the year and build up some more savings just paid of my car so now debt free and can easily put away £1000-1200 a month and work is pretty busy atm so scope for earning more.
Im at around 15k atm so aiming for 25k mark trying to put down the biggest amount of deposit as I can.
MG CHRIS said:
Ive had similar experience in wales even with the restriction on views for occupied houses. Had a viewing for a 3 bed house all nice inside good sized garage and good garden up at 105k had a phone call this morning saying the house is sold and they only started doing viewings today. Several others that have been up for less than a week are sold. However anything over 125k in the area or just generally over priced just sitting put with no offers.
I can borrow 110k which is top end so looking around the 100k mark ive decided to wait later on in the year and build up some more savings just paid of my car so now debt free and can easily put away £1000-1200 a month and work is pretty busy atm so scope for earning more.
Im at around 15k atm so aiming for 25k mark trying to put down the biggest amount of deposit as I can.
Sounds good mate, keep us updated. All the best.I can borrow 110k which is top end so looking around the 100k mark ive decided to wait later on in the year and build up some more savings just paid of my car so now debt free and can easily put away £1000-1200 a month and work is pretty busy atm so scope for earning more.
Im at around 15k atm so aiming for 25k mark trying to put down the biggest amount of deposit as I can.
Leicester Loyal said:
MG CHRIS said:
Ive had similar experience in wales even with the restriction on views for occupied houses. Had a viewing for a 3 bed house all nice inside good sized garage and good garden up at 105k had a phone call this morning saying the house is sold and they only started doing viewings today. Several others that have been up for less than a week are sold. However anything over 125k in the area or just generally over priced just sitting put with no offers.
I can borrow 110k which is top end so looking around the 100k mark ive decided to wait later on in the year and build up some more savings just paid of my car so now debt free and can easily put away £1000-1200 a month and work is pretty busy atm so scope for earning more.
Im at around 15k atm so aiming for 25k mark trying to put down the biggest amount of deposit as I can.
Sounds good mate, keep us updated. All the best.I can borrow 110k which is top end so looking around the 100k mark ive decided to wait later on in the year and build up some more savings just paid of my car so now debt free and can easily put away £1000-1200 a month and work is pretty busy atm so scope for earning more.
Im at around 15k atm so aiming for 25k mark trying to put down the biggest amount of deposit as I can.
MG CHRIS said:
Ive had similar experience in wales even with the restriction on views for occupied houses. Had a viewing for a 3 bed house all nice inside good sized garage and good garden up at 105k had a phone call this morning saying the house is sold and they only started doing viewings today. Several others that have been up for less than a week are sold. However anything over 125k in the area or just generally over priced just sitting put with no offers.
I can borrow 110k which is top end so looking around the 100k mark ive decided to wait later on in the year and build up some more savings just paid of my car so now debt free and can easily put away £1000-1200 a month and work is pretty busy atm so scope for earning more.
Im at around 15k atm so aiming for 25k mark trying to put down the biggest amount of deposit as I can.
With 75% LTV you'll be laughing, 1.5% ish rate should be easy!I can borrow 110k which is top end so looking around the 100k mark ive decided to wait later on in the year and build up some more savings just paid of my car so now debt free and can easily put away £1000-1200 a month and work is pretty busy atm so scope for earning more.
Im at around 15k atm so aiming for 25k mark trying to put down the biggest amount of deposit as I can.
JQ said:
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
Keep coming back to this idea of the furlough & job losses somewhat restricted to predominantly hospitality / below average or average earners. Those whom do not tend to buy property and only rent for the majority of their lives. Ergo property buying power is not going to be massively affected, granted owners of the business loosing the staff after shutting up shop will have reduced buying power but they’re a fractional 1/5th - 1/10th minority of the above mentioned doomed workforce.
I’d be willing to suggest those doomed workers would be set back some margin from being in the position to buy and therefore will be in rented accom for an even longer foreseeable, which bolsters house prices where rent yields are good (basically anywhere).
HH
stuffI’d be willing to suggest those doomed workers would be set back some margin from being in the position to buy and therefore will be in rented accom for an even longer foreseeable, which bolsters house prices where rent yields are good (basically anywhere).
HH
JQ said:
Bit of a blinkered view. Industries that would be negatively impacted by Armageddon in the retail and leisure sectors:
Distribution companies
Food wholesalers
Florists
Gas suppliers
Recruitment consultants
Fit out contractors
Sound and lighting engineers
Design consultants
Media consultants
Advertising agencies
Pension funds
Insurance companies
High street banks
Solicitors
Property consultants
Property companies
Local authorities - Business Rates, parking charges
Taxi operators
Window cleaners
Accountants
Farmers
Beverage producers and distributors
Display companies
I'm sure there's plenty more, but you get the idea. If a bar employing minimum wage staff goes under, yes a load of 20 somethings will immediately lose their job, but also their accountant loses a client, as does their solicitor, as does their tax consultant, as does their window cleaner, etc, etc.
If there is mass unemployment coming down the track there will be plenty of solicitors, architects and accountants losing their jobs or taking pay cuts.
Exactly and that’s just retail. The oil and gas industry is on its knees with tens of thousands of jobs going. Distribution companies
Food wholesalers
Florists
Gas suppliers
Recruitment consultants
Fit out contractors
Sound and lighting engineers
Design consultants
Media consultants
Advertising agencies
Pension funds
Insurance companies
High street banks
Solicitors
Property consultants
Property companies
Local authorities - Business Rates, parking charges
Taxi operators
Window cleaners
Accountants
Farmers
Beverage producers and distributors
Display companies
I'm sure there's plenty more, but you get the idea. If a bar employing minimum wage staff goes under, yes a load of 20 somethings will immediately lose their job, but also their accountant loses a client, as does their solicitor, as does their tax consultant, as does their window cleaner, etc, etc.
If there is mass unemployment coming down the track there will be plenty of solicitors, architects and accountants losing their jobs or taking pay cuts.
Look at travel and all the pilots that no longer have work.
These aren’t low level minimum wage workers.
As always nobody knows the future, but having had our sale complete last week we are sitting tight until at least next year.
I viewed some cheapish BTLs at the weekend. Nothing great available and anything with a good yield is getting fought over.
Seems the 2 areas of the market I’m interested in are very hot. £100k BTLs and a home for us upto £500K.
Like I say though we’ll wait it out. My wife likes her security mind, so is making noises about buying, but she knows that would be stupid right now as we paid an early repayment charge so we could rent instead of buying and porting the mortgage.
Morning. Yes thanks for that. I literally just found that out from my mortgage advisor last night.
He says I’m crazy if I think I can sell at the top and buy back in at the bottom, as it’s simply not going to happen. He reckons I’m in a very dangerous position stepping out of the property market.
Yet a good few friends including some very savvy business owners etc are saying “Sit tight, don’t buy anything yet”.
I’ve no interest in buying at the moment despite my mortgage guys pushy-ness. I’ve told my wife we may buy something next year if the prices do tumble. Even if it’s not our dream house, just a small detached while we concentrate on buy-to-let’s. If so then I’ll contact my old lender and see if they can help. I was with Skipton who were decent, so I’m sure they’d have a product I could use for a couple of years.
Thanks again anyway.
He says I’m crazy if I think I can sell at the top and buy back in at the bottom, as it’s simply not going to happen. He reckons I’m in a very dangerous position stepping out of the property market.
Yet a good few friends including some very savvy business owners etc are saying “Sit tight, don’t buy anything yet”.
I’ve no interest in buying at the moment despite my mortgage guys pushy-ness. I’ve told my wife we may buy something next year if the prices do tumble. Even if it’s not our dream house, just a small detached while we concentrate on buy-to-let’s. If so then I’ll contact my old lender and see if they can help. I was with Skipton who were decent, so I’m sure they’d have a product I could use for a couple of years.
Thanks again anyway.
We've just had a full offer on our place after less than a day on the market! Apparently the buyers were talking to the estate agent of making an offer even before coming to see it.
Houses around here, just north of Nottingham are selling like hot cakes. We went to see a new build on a large estate near us and they've never known it so busy. We had to wait a week for an appointment.
Trouble is now, do we bank the money and rent for a while??
Houses around here, just north of Nottingham are selling like hot cakes. We went to see a new build on a large estate near us and they've never known it so busy. We had to wait a week for an appointment.
Trouble is now, do we bank the money and rent for a while??
gregs656 said:
Don’t forget the labouring to keep food on the table.
Or the teaching.
All a bit weird.
Company is 5 years old. Work is patchy. It is also very well paid. Sometimes I'm doing 7 days a week, a couple of years ago, the phone didn't ring for 3 months. It is the same for the bigger companies, apart from they smooth things out by making a float of about £100k and that ebbing and flowing. Or the teaching.
All a bit weird.
I've just bought 30 acres of brownfield for various projects. If mining goes quiet (which it occasionally does) I used to put my old secondary school teacher hat on and do supply. £120/day sort of stuff. It fills the gaps. Since schools have gone quiet, I've been labouring. Purely because I am not digging into my capital and life is expensive.
At the moment, we are very busy. My partner is flat out and I'm working evenings and weekends. I've worked the last load of weekends doing site investigations. The writeups have to be done somehow, which is why I was up until midnight last night and tonight.
The consensus with people I deal with (the smaller firms and one man bands are in the same boat) is that we are in a temporary pulse and this is going to go egg shaped when furlough ends.
This may sound strange to you, you either work for someone or have the fortune not to work in a well subscribed field with "bunchy" work.
This is sadly the sort of thing I need to do to pretty much retire in a few years.
I'd rather have more of a reserve, but I refuse to take on any sort of debt/credit to expand/live beyond my means.
Victorian parents init.
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