How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

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Discussion

tonker

57,344 posts

205 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
They are offering virtually no infrastructure improvements. And are being allowed to. Take the entire dunsfold park new town. 2000 houses. So 4000 cars. At least.

New roads? Nope. New buses? Nope. doing anything about the horrific traffic already on the a281. Nope. Near a railway. Nope. Tram? Shuttle bus? Nope.

Absolutely nothing material. It'll be awful. Add the traveller infestations and it's not hard to see why property is a tough sell round there.

stongle

3,142 posts

119 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
stuckmojo said:
Short answer. Opinion: GBP fell because the Governor of the Bank of England stated that interest rates won't get back to their historical average of 5% for a very long time, and may rise slowly and very gradually. Which means they'll keep lagging the USD and FED policy and keep GBP down.
Well, rates aren't getting near 5% for the foreseeable future, to think so is optimism beyond my wildest dreams (and I can imagine a sex sandwich with the Minogue sisters). Fed normalisation isn't all roses in the US. At least being long GBP is a better long-term bet than EUR.

Anyhoo, historically your view might be correct, but the noise coming out of central bankers for a while (particularly from Jackson Hole), was they might be done and stimulus needs to come from elsewhere. I think a whippy correction on house prices as rates normalize is a massive issue for UK plc, but the real driver isn't rates but other factors.

How far will house prices fall has now become a political factor. Under a future Labour govt as we have in opposition almost certainly. A robust Brexit result, either in or out may actually stabilise them - or at least people's confidence.

What happened to the blog, looks interesting?

V6Alfisti

3,056 posts

184 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
On newsnight or similar they mentioned the BoE guidance is 2-3% with 2.75% being the real figure.

Interesting anacdote over at hpc

"We did 3 viewings yesterday, purely anecdotal but I thoroughly enjoyed these comments from the EA's we met

'market is weird at the moment'

'market is slowing down'

'the London money is slowing'

'4 years ago I would of sold this house in an afternoon' (it has been on the market since April 18)

'we are encouraging vendors to list as soon as possible as we are expecting a flood of new listings in the autumn'

'we sent this property to our client list of 400 investors/landlords and not one was interested'

'the seller only wants to see a proceedable offer that can move very quickly'
"

skwdenyer

8,702 posts

197 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
quotequote all
BlackLabel said:
And ironically London is a Labour stronghold now and is unlikely to return to the Tories again. 49 seats to Corbyn’s Labour vs 21 to the Tories was the London Westminster constituency breakdown last year.

Why is London so left wing? smile
Why ironically? For many London property is sharing a crappy flat with loads of people and paying a fortune for the privilege, then relying upon public transport to go to a low-paying job. Housing standards are poor and poorly-enforced. Overcrowding is rife. Benefits are critical to keeping a large proportion of people “solvent.” For many, there is no dream of property ownership, self-determination or even much hope.

Meanwhile property is exploited shamelessly by a hefty minority - endless AirBnBs, shabby BTLs, dodgy landlords and dodgier agents renting rooms on “licences” and trying to avoid responsibility, and so on.

Renters now outnumber owners.

People with little to show for their lives and little hope of personal betterment tend not to vote Tory.

turbobloke

90,549 posts

217 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
quotequote all
skwdenyer said:
BlackLabel said:
And ironically London is a Labour stronghold now and is unlikely to return to the Tories again. 49 seats to Corbyn’s Labour vs 21 to the Tories was the London Westminster constituency breakdown last year.

Why is London so left wing? smile
Why ironically? For many London property is sharing a crappy flat with loads of people and paying a fortune for the privilege, then relying upon public transport to go to a low-paying job. Housing standards are poor and poorly-enforced. Overcrowding is rife. Benefits are critical to keeping a large proportion of people “solvent.” For many, there is no dream of property ownership, self-determination or even much hope.

Meanwhile property is exploited shamelessly by a hefty minority - endless AirBnBs, shabby BTLs, dodgy landlords and dodgier agents renting rooms on “licences” and trying to avoid responsibility, and so on.

Renters now outnumber owners.

People with little to show for their lives and little hope of personal betterment tend not to vote Tory.
That last para may well be so, however believing politicians who say they'll help you is a silly mistake as previous mistakes have shown. Such people are buying snake oil, which Labour politicians are good at selling.

If the next Labour gov't proceeds as per the last two, and it appears to offer worse things (not that we can believe it, but incompetence has a way of coming through) a wrecked economy will stuff everyone except the top 1%.

Disenchanted oldies not voting Conservative can help with that.

menousername

1,207 posts

99 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
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turbobloke said:
Such people are buying snake oil, which all politicians are good at selling.
Fixed that one for you


turbobloke said:
If the next Labour gov't proceeds as per the last two, and it appears to offer worse things (not that we can believe it, but incompetence has a way of coming through) a wrecked economy will stuff everyone except the top 1%.
Seems to sum up the economy right now

turbobloke

90,549 posts

217 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
quotequote all
menousername said:
turbobloke said:
Such people are buying snake oil, which all politicians are good at selling.
Fixed that one for you
Not really.

All politicians are self-serving and nobody should believe their special offers, but it's a Labour thing to aim mushy rhetoric at the poor bloody infantry. If this supposed group, portrayed by Labour as victms of society so it's somebody else's fault (and hey look at those rich people over there ===> ) actually got help from a Labour gov't to better themselves to a meaningful degree, they would then become more likely to vote Conservative. Clearly this is not something Labour want to see. As their lot got better they would enter the sights of Corbyn's Labour as targets.

menousername said:
turbobloke said:
If the next Labour gov't proceeds as per the last two, and it appears to offer worse things (not that we can believe it, but incompetence has a way of coming through) a wrecked economy will stuff everyone except the top 1%.
Seems to sum up the economy right now
It would do, if only it didn't.

We don't have to go running to the IMF with cap in hand, as per Labour in the 70s, and there's still money left, unlike Liam Byrne's message after the last time Labour screwed up an already bad situation.

Not forgetting current high employment with lots of new jobs (around three-quarters permanent and full-time). Or less borrowing and more deficit reduction (UK deficit dropped by £5.7bn last year).

DId you happen to live/work in the 70s and have you forgotten Byrne's bks?

Either way if we do get a Corbyn marxist gov't those with no options will experience it for themeselves. It's not something I would wish on them.


turbobloke

90,549 posts

217 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
quotequote all
Meanwhile with brexit and jezza on the horizon I suggest we all buy-in now while we can afford it.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/47362912...

kingston12

3,321 posts

114 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
quotequote all
Not sure what is going on here:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

This changed to 'SOLD STC - NO FURTHER VIEWINGS' about a day after going on the market. Nothing unusual about that, but the guide price is probably £250k less than I'd expect, even given the large amount of work required.

If it went for anything close to the guide price then it's probably the best value house to have sold in that area for years.

tonker

57,344 posts

205 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
quotequote all
Buyer with maiden name, now changed on marriage to Parry, or Drewett ?

Presumably a probate sale. Or care home fees special (hoist in house and Doris internally).

kingston12

3,321 posts

114 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
quotequote all
tonker said:
Buyer with maiden name, now changed on marriage to Parry, or Drewett ?
That was my first thought, but why make it so obvious by putting it on the market for a day?

James_B

8,394 posts

214 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
quotequote all
FocusRS3 said:
With respect, the MPC Voted 9-0 in favour of the rise. There is less than zero chance rates will be getting lowered for some time... That vote tells you there is likely to be further rate rises.


Edited by FocusRS3 on Thursday 2nd August 12:58
Short Sterling rallied on the decision.

hyphen

16,830 posts

47 months

Saturday 4th August 2018
quotequote all
kingston12 said:
tonker said:
Buyer with maiden name, now changed on marriage to Parry, or Drewett ?
That was my first thought, but why make it so obvious by putting it on the market for a day?
To fulfil a legal requirement?

Can you stick it in your calendar and let us know what price Land Registry shows when it next updates.

Graemsay

600 posts

169 months

Sunday 5th August 2018
quotequote all
wisbech said:
From elsewhere - Perth WA prices are now down 14%, and still sliding.
Over on the east coast, Melbourne and Sydney are down 5% to 10%.

kingston12

3,321 posts

114 months

Sunday 5th August 2018
quotequote all
hyphen said:
To fulfil a legal requirement?
It must be something like that. I'm not sure what the legal requirements are and how they vary between cases. It's the only reason that I can think of why you'd sell something seemingly well below the current market value and advertise to the world that you are doing so.

hyphen said:
Can you stick it in your calendar and let us know what price Land Registry shows when it next updates.
Yes, I'll update when I see it come through. It could be that someone just came along with a decent seven figure offer and it was immediately accepted, but we'll see.

spikeyhead

11,859 posts

154 months

Sunday 5th August 2018
quotequote all
tonker said:
They are offering virtually no infrastructure improvements. And are being allowed to. Take the entire dunsfold park new town. 2000 houses. So 4000 cars. At least.

New roads? Nope. New buses? Nope. doing anything about the horrific traffic already on the a281. Nope. Near a railway. Nope. Tram? Shuttle bus? Nope.

Absolutely nothing material. It'll be awful. Add the traveller infestations and it's not hard to see why property is a tough sell round there.
I spend very little time in that neck of the woods, but traffic in the area is really terrible. Genuinely horrible. Went to a day's presentation at Surrey Uni in Guildford recently and all the hosts were moaning that it took them an hour to travel ten miles to get there, and many from further afield stayed in a local hotel and then spent 45 mins to travel three miles there. The whole area needs better transport far more than more houses.

tonker

57,344 posts

205 months

Sunday 5th August 2018
quotequote all
The quality of the roads is even worse than the traffic. They are known as the worst n the U.K.

Surrey Traffic is why I learned to ride a motorbike..... hence acutely aware of dire road surfaces, and massive potholes and rubbish el cheapo repairs.

Joey Deacon

2,674 posts

133 months

Sunday 5th August 2018
quotequote all
Graemsay said:
wisbech said:
From elsewhere - Perth WA prices are now down 14%, and still sliding.
Over on the east coast, Melbourne and Sydney are down 5% to 10%.
I lived in Melbourne for three years and came back to the UK early last year so have not been keeping an eye on the market recently. When I was there though it was absolutely crazy, 15% rises in a year were not uncommon and everybody thought it would never end. However, it seemed to be mostly driven by Chinese money, the Chinese were quite happy to outbid everybody to own property as they saw it as a safe place to put money outside of China.

Even then there were vast amounts of apartments in the city that were empty as they were purely bought to get money out of China and they didn't want the hassle of renting them out. The Australian bidders were quite rightly angry at this situation as they couldn't compete, but obviously everybody who was making money out of this situation (estate agents, politicians etc.) were very happy about it. Families were buying properties two hours outside of Melbourne as it was the only way they could afford a family home.

I remember being in a bar in Sydney and got talking to the barman who asked me where I was from. When I said I lived in Melbourne he started telling me how he wanted to buy an apartment in Melbourne to rent out as they were so much cheaper than Melbourne.

Interest rates are much higher in Australia than the UK and banks are more than happy to lend six times your salaries. Actually, as long as your salary is more than the mortgage payment they don't seem to concerned about how you can afford to actually live after paying it each month.


olimain

780 posts

92 months

Monday 6th August 2018
quotequote all
kingston12 said:
Not sure what is going on here:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

This changed to 'SOLD STC - NO FURTHER VIEWINGS' about a day after going on the market. Nothing unusual about that, but the guide price is probably £250k less than I'd expect, even given the large amount of work required.

If it went for anything close to the guide price then it's probably the best value house to have sold in that area for years.
I tried to view this, didn't get called back. Wife called twice too and then the third time of calling (the Monday after the Friday it was originally listed on) was told "oh yes we had viewings on Saturday but only called people who were either under offer or cash (they never asked our situation), we've already had two offers at asking price and one over".

hyphen

16,830 posts

47 months

Monday 6th August 2018
quotequote all
tonker said:
The quality of the roads is even worse than the traffic. They are known as the worst n the U.K.

Surrey Traffic is why I learned to ride a motorbike..... hence acutely aware of dire road surfaces, and massive potholes and rubbish el cheapo repairs.
Cobham is going downhill...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6020543/Ri...