How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[MaxFromage]

Personal mortgages for business owners are getting much harder to organise and sign off according to my mortgage broker client. Lots of hoops to jump through including accountants signing off on past, current and future trading and sight of business bank statements.

Edited- Also details of any Govt support for COVID-19. Business overdrafts prior to Govt support are a red flag.

Edited by MaxFromage on Monday 27th July 19:33

[red_slr]

p1stonhead said:

mondeoman said:

HustleRussell said:

Missed out on the house I wanted in Brighton suburbs. Everything else SSTC now too? Seems there was a real rush on property in the past couple of months.

Getting in before they lose their jobs perhaps?

Need completion before March.

How many wide boys are going to drag the sale out at or over asking then come say late Jan reduce their offer.... ouch.

[the-photographer]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jul/28/cut-...

Cut in stamp duty has only really benefited London, says Zoopla

[NickCQ]

the-photographer said:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jul/28/cut-...

Cut in stamp duty has only really benefited London, says Zoopla

I am surprised that second home type locations haven't benefitted

[the-photographer]

The EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast has significantly downgraded the near-term economic outlook for the UK, with GDP now expected to contract by 11.5% over the course of 2020.

The EY ITEM Club forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to around 9.0% in late-2020 and early-2021, up from 3.9% in the months to May. This is also expected to contribute to more subdued levels of consumer spending. The EY ITEM Club forecasts consumer spending to fall 11.6% over the course of 2020, before rising 6.6% in 2021 as the labour market starts to recover.

https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/uk’s...

[p1stonhead]

the-photographer said:

The EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast has significantly downgraded the near-term economic outlook for the UK, with GDP now expected to contract by 11.5% over the course of 2020.

The EY ITEM Club forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to around 9.0% in late-2020 and early-2021, up from 3.9% in the months to May. This is also expected to contribute to more subdued levels of consumer spending. The EY ITEM Club forecasts consumer spending to fall 11.6% over the course of 2020, before rising 6.6% in 2021 as the labour market starts to recover.

https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/uk’s...

That’s....

Fairly fking horrendous

[SunsetZed]

NickCQ said:

the-photographer said:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jul/28/cut-...

Cut in stamp duty has only really benefited London, says Zoopla

I am surprised that second home type locations haven't benefitted

Yet is the word, come April next year I think it will be clear that they did although for those who live there permanently benefited probably isn't the word.

[JagLover]

p1stonhead said:

the-photographer said:

The EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast has significantly downgraded the near-term economic outlook for the UK, with GDP now expected to contract by 11.5% over the course of 2020.

The EY ITEM Club forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to around 9.0% in late-2020 and early-2021, up from 3.9% in the months to May. This is also expected to contribute to more subdued levels of consumer spending. The EY ITEM Club forecasts consumer spending to fall 11.6% over the course of 2020, before rising 6.6% in 2021 as the labour market starts to recover.

https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/uk’s...

That’s....

Fairly fking horrendous

That's better than I was expecting to be honest.

If unemployment peaks at "only" 9%, and I hope it does, then that is better than I feared. The GDP figure is pretty meaningless on its own as it is a measure of economic activity and the economy was virtually shut down for four months by government measures.

[p1stonhead]

JagLover said:

p1stonhead said:

the-photographer said:

The EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast has significantly downgraded the near-term economic outlook for the UK, with GDP now expected to contract by 11.5% over the course of 2020.

The EY ITEM Club forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to around 9.0% in late-2020 and early-2021, up from 3.9% in the months to May. This is also expected to contribute to more subdued levels of consumer spending. The EY ITEM Club forecasts consumer spending to fall 11.6% over the course of 2020, before rising 6.6% in 2021 as the labour market starts to recover.

https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/uk’s...

That’s....

Fairly fking horrendous

That's better than I was expecting to be honest.

If unemployment peaks at "only" 9%, and I hope it does, then that is better than I feared. The GDP figure is pretty meaningless on its own as it is a measure of economic activity and the economy was virtually shut down for four months by government measures.

How does that make it meaningless? It’s still a measure using the same rules as it always does.

[kingston12]

p1stonhead said:

JagLover said:

p1stonhead said:

the-photographer said:

The EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast has significantly downgraded the near-term economic outlook for the UK, with GDP now expected to contract by 11.5% over the course of 2020.

The EY ITEM Club forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to around 9.0% in late-2020 and early-2021, up from 3.9% in the months to May. This is also expected to contribute to more subdued levels of consumer spending. The EY ITEM Club forecasts consumer spending to fall 11.6% over the course of 2020, before rising 6.6% in 2021 as the labour market starts to recover.

https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/uk’s...

That’s....

Fairly fking horrendous

That's better than I was expecting to be honest.

If unemployment peaks at "only" 9%, and I hope it does, then that is better than I feared. The GDP figure is pretty meaningless on its own as it is a measure of economic activity and the economy was virtually shut down for four months by government measures.

How does that make it meaningless? It’s still a measure using the same rules as it always does.

It’s a bit different this time, because we’ve deliberately closed off whole rafts of the economy, some of which will bounce back immediately, some unfortunately won’t.

A lot of the high street made no sales at all in the last few months. Now they have reopened they will be making some, but how much of their old trade they get back immediately is the key number.

[JagLover]

p1stonhead said:

JagLover said:

p1stonhead said:

the-photographer said:

The EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast has significantly downgraded the near-term economic outlook for the UK, with GDP now expected to contract by 11.5% over the course of 2020.

The EY ITEM Club forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to around 9.0% in late-2020 and early-2021, up from 3.9% in the months to May. This is also expected to contribute to more subdued levels of consumer spending. The EY ITEM Club forecasts consumer spending to fall 11.6% over the course of 2020, before rising 6.6% in 2021 as the labour market starts to recover.

https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/uk’s...

That’s....

Fairly fking horrendous

That's better than I was expecting to be honest.

If unemployment peaks at "only" 9%, and I hope it does, then that is better than I feared. The GDP figure is pretty meaningless on its own as it is a measure of economic activity and the economy was virtually shut down for four months by government measures.

How does that make it meaningless? It’s still a measure using the same rules as it always does.

It is a measure of activity in a given period. If that activity is artificially constrained then it will be lower by default. On its own therefore it is meaningless as a measure of the underlying performance of the economy. What matters more is the longer term damage of the lockdown measures. The impact on public finances, otherwise viable firms going under, and the increase in unemployment.

If unemployment does indeed peak at "only" 9% we have got off lightly from this disastrous experiment.

[soupdragon1]

Articles below paint a scary picture. Like anything though, its not even a forecast, just a possibility and for every doom and gloom article, there are counter arguments to the contrary.

But if you like morbid projections, read away!

https://news.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/uk-house-pr...

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/n...

[hutchst]

the-photographer said:

The EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast has significantly downgraded the near-term economic outlook for the UK, with GDP now expected to contract by 11.5% over the course of 2020.

The EY ITEM Club forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to around 9.0% in late-2020 and early-2021, up from 3.9% in the months to May. This is also expected to contribute to more subdued levels of consumer spending. The EY ITEM Club forecasts consumer spending to fall 11.6% over the course of 2020, before rising 6.6% in 2021 as the labour market starts to recover.

https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/uk’s...

Did they happen to give any clues as to which club was making these forecasts?

[GlenMH]

soupdragon1 said:

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/n...

There is no date on that article. Which is a bit of a concern as they mention HBOS, which disappeared a good few years ago...

[NickCQ]

hutchst said:

Did they happen to give any clues as to which club was making these forecasts?

[ooid]

Another house in Wanstead, E11. Just sold in two weeks.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/55510853

[soupdragon1]

GlenMH said:

soupdragon1 said:

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/n...

There is no date on that article. Which is a bit of a concern as they mention HBOS, which disappeared a good few years ago...

Good argument to say they got it wrong then, if we assume its from a few years back, which it probably is.

[stongle]

soupdragon1 said:

Good argument to say they got it wrong then, if we assume its from a few years back, which it probably is.

Its probably very old, they talk about slashing interest rates. They can only go negative from where they are, one assumes they would have picked up on that. And the house price growth runs out in 2007.

[Saleen836]

soupdragon1 said:

GlenMH said:

soupdragon1 said:

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/n...

There is no date on that article. Which is a bit of a concern as they mention HBOS, which disappeared a good few years ago...

Good argument to say they got it wrong then, if we assume its from a few years back, which it probably is.

Going by the last sentance...£50bn injection and plans to acquire UK banks' mortgage-backed securities in return for Treasury bills

I would say that article is from 2008ish

[soupdragon1]

stongle said:

soupdragon1 said:

Good argument to say they got it wrong then, if we assume its from a few years back, which it probably is.

Its probably very old, they talk about slashing interest rates. They can only go negative from where they are, one assumes they would have picked up on that. And the house price growth runs out in 2007.

Yeah. I didnt stop to think when I read that bit. Was just thinking they are talking very blasé about negative interest rates.