How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
Sheepshanks said:
Noticed mortgage approvals in June were 20% higher than forecast.
Indeed certainly nudging up but equally 46% down on Feb https://www.cityam.com/uk-mortgage-approvals-beat-...
red_slr said:
I think the next 3-4 months will see quite high numbers for approvals because its gone mental out there!
It almost certainly will, lots more stock coming on.Some at high prices but dropping quickly after e.g. one came on 2 weeks ago at £1.3m, now £1.2m (which is closer to typical)
Interesting also that it seems that many deals are falling through post STC due to downvaluations still being rife, i.e surveyors recognise this is a short term boost following lockdown and the Stamp boost.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/property-p... The headline references the more common £20k below on a £300-400k place but equally downvaluations of £1.4m offered to £1.1m value
Plus there have been a dribble of the higher LTV mortgages coming back, but now being pulled again.
Odd market (some are thinking it's good to buy before they lose their jobs!), but still betting it won't last for very long and doesn't seem to be having any substantive impact on the plus £750k still
Edited by V6Alfisti on Thursday 30th July 11:40
Edited by V6Alfisti on Thursday 30th July 11:45
V6Alfisti said:
Sheepshanks said:
Noticed mortgage approvals in June were 20% higher than forecast.
Indeed certainly nudging up but equally 46% down on Feb https://www.cityam.com/uk-mortgage-approvals-beat-...
I know for you, and many others on here, it's all about London, but the market where I am in West Cheshire is just mental. I was browsing Rightmove the other evening and for a moment thought I'd somehow selected "show only SSTC".
Sheepshanks said:
I was wondering how you'd respond.
I know for you, and many others on here, it's all about London, but the market where I am in West Cheshire is just mental. I was browsing Rightmove the other evening and for a moment thought I'd somehow selected "show only SSTC".
Absolutely, each area will be different. Only the sold values will tell and these will definitely be boosted for these few months.I know for you, and many others on here, it's all about London, but the market where I am in West Cheshire is just mental. I was browsing Rightmove the other evening and for a moment thought I'd somehow selected "show only SSTC".
However the mortgage approvals are what they are. Just adding the numerical facts.
V6Alfisti said:
Interesting also that it seems that many deals are falling through post STC due to downvaluations still being rife, i.e surveyors recognise this is a short term boost following lockdown and the Stamp boost.
Different scale to what you're used to but we just sold late FIL's house - asking £300K and had 3 written offers, bizarrely (to me) all at £300K. That's £20K above the last sale of a more updated house in the road. Sign hadn't even gone up as they were so busy and I wanted to give the house more of a chance - EA said if it goes higher we'd get trouble with mortgage valuation, they thought £300K was pushing it. The buyers we've gone with are downsizing and paying cash.Sheepshanks said:
Different scale to what you're used to but we just sold late FIL's house - asking £300K and had 3 written offers, bizarrely (to me) all at £300K. That's £20K above the last sale of a more updated house in the road. Sign hadn't even gone up as they were so busy and I wanted to give the house more of a chance - EA said if it goes higher we'd get trouble with mortgage valuation, they thought £300K was pushing it. The buyers we've gone with are downsizing and paying cash.
Indeed, don't doubt it but equally your buyers are not the usual or representative across all areas (cash buyers have always been there). Also it doesn't speak to the longer term continuation of this in the market. Like I have said a number of times, most are betting on this being a shorter term blip (but no-one is doubting there is currently that surge in a number of areas but equally not across all of them or all price brackets)In the same way I don't suggest the areas of London I am talking about are fully representative of the market, whilst the independent data does cover the country but equally doesn't represent variances in the UK.
Ultimately what matters is what actually completes and how long it continues for...
Edited by V6Alfisti on Thursday 30th July 12:00
V6Alfisti said:
Indeed, don't doubt it but equally your buyers are not the usual or representative across all areas (cash buyers have always been there). Also it doesn't speak to the longer term continuation of this in the market. Like I have said a number of times, most are betting on this being a shorter term blip (but no-one is doubting there is currently that surge in a number of areas but equally not across all of them or all price brackets)
No-one knows how long this will last, and we've had chunky bad news in our area on the jobs front. A bunch of other people looked at the house and the EA was only letting proceedable buyers view. amongst them was a FTB with a 50% deposit. Another young couple who had an air of desperation about them. Someone who had sold but couldn't find their next house, etc. So it would seem there's plenty of demand right now.
I'm bemusued (around here) by the £5-600K places that are selling instantly.
Edited by Sheepshanks on Thursday 30th July 12:17
Quite a lot of people who were perhaps waiting for the perfect house may be going for something else now.
My in laws are. They’ve sold but can’t find much they absolutely want.
However they now see this as a ‘free’ move due to not having to pay stamp duty. They may move again in a few years and make that the permanent one.
That’s the thinking anyway.
My in laws are. They’ve sold but can’t find much they absolutely want.
However they now see this as a ‘free’ move due to not having to pay stamp duty. They may move again in a few years and make that the permanent one.
That’s the thinking anyway.
Sheepshanks said:
No-one knows how long this will last, and we've had chunky bad news in our area on the jobs front.
A bunch of other people who looked at the house and the EA was only letting proceedable buyers view. amongst them was a FTB with a 50% deposit. Another young couple who had an air of desperation about them. Someone who had sold but couldn't find their next house, etc. So it would seem there's plenty of demand right now.
Like I said, very specific to you and your area and not the whole market relayed via an EA/your experience (which again is fine if you understand how specific it is like I do with my £100k off a £1.3m place in particular part of London and slow sales). However it will certainly be interesting to see how much of that demand truly translates to sold/complete, particularly when far more chunky bad news hits across the board.A bunch of other people who looked at the house and the EA was only letting proceedable buyers view. amongst them was a FTB with a 50% deposit. Another young couple who had an air of desperation about them. Someone who had sold but couldn't find their next house, etc. So it would seem there's plenty of demand right now.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Thursday 30th July 12:17
V6Alfisti said:
Like I said, very specific to you and your area and not the whole market relayed via an EA/your experience (which again is fine if you understand how specific it is like I do with my £100k off a £1.3m place in particular part of London and slow sales). However it will certainly be interesting to see how much of that demand truly translates to sold/complete, particularly when far more chunky bad news hits across the board.
My impression is it's everywhere apart from London.Sheepshanks said:
My impression is it's everywhere apart from London.
Apart from impressions aren't fact and that for example is the the direct opposite of what a property portal reported the other week (equally their own view will be based on far more data but equally not guaranteed). Someone posted the link here. Don't get me wrong, I 100% know that some areas (but across all price boundaries consistently?) are seeing big increase in demand (as expected) but no-one knows exactly where or to what extent until actual data comes out.
Like I say, only true completed sales will actually tell. Got a while to wait for that.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Thursday 30th July 12:25
Sheepshanks said:
p1stonhead said:
However they now see this as a ‘free’ move due to not having to pay stamp duty.
That's an interesting angle. While it's a chunky saving, I didn't think it was significant enough (in the overall scheme of moving house) to sway people's behaviour.It’s a big difference if you don’t really want to move for anything other than perfect. £4K to lose for 2-3 years isn’t anywhere near as bad.
They do have buyers though so it’s making a difference as there is a bit of pressure on.
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