How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
V6Alfisti said:
Apart from impressions aren't fact and that for example is the the direct opposite of what a property portal reported the other week (equally their own view will be based on far more data but equally not guaranteed). Someone posted the link here.
Don't get me wrong, I 100% know that some areas (but across all price boundaries consistently?) are seeing big increase in demand (as expected) but no-one knows exactly where or to what extent until actual data comes out.
Like I say, only true completed sales will actually tell. Got a while to wait for that.
Foxton's CEO (reporting first half figures, so he's got to be a bit careful what he says) is "cautiously optimistic" for the rest of the year. Rental pretty well back to pre-Covid levels.Don't get me wrong, I 100% know that some areas (but across all price boundaries consistently?) are seeing big increase in demand (as expected) but no-one knows exactly where or to what extent until actual data comes out.
Like I say, only true completed sales will actually tell. Got a while to wait for that.
Sheepshanks said:
p1stonhead said:
They’ll still have moving costs and stuff plus solicitors but it’s probably £3-4k vs £20k. Fairly chunky difference in cash terms.
Not sure I've got this right, but isn't the max saving £15K? £500K would have been £15K but is now £0, then it picks up from there.Sheepshanks said:
Foxton's CEO (reporting first half figures, so he's got to be a bit careful what he says) is "cautiously optimistic" for the rest of the year. Rental pretty well back to pre-Covid levels.
You do realise Foxton's is an estate agent (who needs to talk up the market) who equally reported a 22% drop in revenue (not a surprise their revenue would be impacted), after it's own business performance has been so shocking that it dropped from 250p/share in 2015 to 100p/share in 2017 to now 36p/share. Just don't look at Countrywide (i.e down from 12000 to 162 right now)Clearly the short term market is looking better (so it's understandable to jump on that) but even so, they have the experience to add "cautiously" as logic states they see the current uptick but equally the massive risk coming down the line.
re: rental what they don't share is the haircut that rental values have taken, rental values are down 20% in my area (I am sure the rest of London varies up and down as well i.e it won't be a consistent 20% across London certainly).
As I said only sold values matter (even current mortgage approvals are still way below what they were pre-covid), and we won't know that for a while but the large majority of forecasts from a variety of sources do suggest this is likely to be short boom for reasons mentioned before.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Thursday 30th July 14:21
V6Alfisti said:
You do realise Foxton's is an estate agent ....]
Sure, but it's a public company and they'll get into a lot of trouble if they're later perceived as having made misleading comments.V6Alfisti said:
re: rental what they don't share is the haircut that rental values have taken, rental values are down 20% in my area (I am sure the rest of London varies up and down as well i.e it won't be a consistent 20% across London certainly).
In the call transcript he says 11%. I only skimed it quickly but it might be more interesting to you: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/edited-transcr...Edited by Sheepshanks on Thursday 30th July 15:14
Sheepshanks said:
In the call transcript he says 11%. I only skimed it quickly but it might be more interesting to you: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/edited-transcr...
Public company = why he said cautiously.....Edited by Sheepshanks on Thursday 30th July 15:14
It is 22% https://primeresi.com/foxtons-revenues-drop-22/
Google foxtons 22%, go to news, or look at that link you posted. It took literally 10 seconds to find.
22% down to £40.4m. That's on top of the pretty horrible share price hit over 5 years.
The actual transcript says
"Lettings revenue was down 21% to GBP 25.7 million
Sales revenue fell 28% to GBP 11.1 million"
As per your own link https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-f...
Anyway not really relevant to the overall convo.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Thursday 30th July 17:51
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
I linked to this gaff a few days ago. I went for a walk today with my son and we happened to find ourselves at the top of the road so we went for a look. Purely by chance we found ourselves witnessing the viewings that were taking place today. Not sure if it was an open day or not but there were 7 couples waiting to view it. I suspect it'll go for asking. And it needs 100k spending on it at a minimum.
I linked to this gaff a few days ago. I went for a walk today with my son and we happened to find ourselves at the top of the road so we went for a look. Purely by chance we found ourselves witnessing the viewings that were taking place today. Not sure if it was an open day or not but there were 7 couples waiting to view it. I suspect it'll go for asking. And it needs 100k spending on it at a minimum.
princeperch said:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
I linked to this gaff a few days ago. I went for a walk today with my son and we happened to find ourselves at the top of the road so we went for a look. Purely by chance we found ourselves witnessing the viewings that were taking place today. Not sure if it was an open day or not but there were 7 couples waiting to view it. I suspect it'll go for asking. And it needs 100k spending on it at a minimum.
Say you pay asking and do the £100k spruce up, you have a very presentable house for £750k on a nice-looking road near a park and a useful station. I linked to this gaff a few days ago. I went for a walk today with my son and we happened to find ourselves at the top of the road so we went for a look. Purely by chance we found ourselves witnessing the viewings that were taking place today. Not sure if it was an open day or not but there were 7 couples waiting to view it. I suspect it'll go for asking. And it needs 100k spending on it at a minimum.
You'll grow out of the space as the kids get bigger but it's a good place to start.
Doesn't seem crazy to me, there's probably a tailwind from gentrification over the next few years as well.
princeperch said:
Thats something. I've made an offer on a semi detached 4 bed, quite close to that street. It was fully revamped by the developer, ready to move in. The price was 650k, this was in late jan 2019. p1stonhead said:
Quite a lot of people who were perhaps waiting for the perfect house may be going for something else now.
My in laws are. They’ve sold but can’t find much they absolutely want.
However they now see this as a ‘free’ move due to not having to pay stamp duty. They may move again in a few years and make that the permanent one.
That’s the thinking anyway.
Not being confrontational or anything, but that seems a bit of a faff to save £10k-£15k. My in laws are. They’ve sold but can’t find much they absolutely want.
However they now see this as a ‘free’ move due to not having to pay stamp duty. They may move again in a few years and make that the permanent one.
That’s the thinking anyway.
By the time they move again they’d have had that paid off the mortgage.
If they’re going to do two moves they’d be better off renting for a year then jumping back in. That’s what we are doing. That way they’ll be chain free and can jump when the ideal place comes up.
Seems the worst of both worlds to buy a house that’s not quite right.
They’ll have to try and sell theirs when their dream home comes up and even if they find a buyer in time, they will be in a chain.
Back on topic more generally, I don’t know how many times people can witness an age old pattern but not learn from it. This is the boom before the crash.
Nevermind. Fools rush in an’ all that.
V6Alfisti said:
Public company = why he said cautiously.....
It is 22% https://primeresi.com/foxtons-revenues-drop-22/
Google foxtons 22%, go to news, or look at that link you posted. It took literally 10 seconds to find.
22% down to £40.4m. That's on top of the pretty horrible share price hit over 5 years.
The actual transcript says
"Lettings revenue was down 21% to GBP 25.7 million
Sales revenue fell 28% to GBP 11.1 million"
As per your own link https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-f...
Anyway not really relevant to the overall convo.
No idea why you felt you needed to post all that. Your observation was:It is 22% https://primeresi.com/foxtons-revenues-drop-22/
Google foxtons 22%, go to news, or look at that link you posted. It took literally 10 seconds to find.
22% down to £40.4m. That's on top of the pretty horrible share price hit over 5 years.
The actual transcript says
"Lettings revenue was down 21% to GBP 25.7 million
Sales revenue fell 28% to GBP 11.1 million"
As per your own link https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-f...
Anyway not really relevant to the overall convo.
V6Alfisti said:
re: rental what they don't share is the haircut that rental values have taken, rental values are down 20% in my area (I am sure the rest of London varies up and down as well i.e it won't be a consistent 20% across London certainly).
To which Foxton CEO's answer was "The result in excess supply unsurprisingly led to rents falling by about 11% on average during lockdown."Edited by Sheepshanks on Thursday 30th July 21:25
marky911 said:
p1stonhead said:
Quite a lot of people who were perhaps waiting for the perfect house may be going for something else now.
My in laws are. They’ve sold but can’t find much they absolutely want.
However they now see this as a ‘free’ move due to not having to pay stamp duty. They may move again in a few years and make that the permanent one.
That’s the thinking anyway.
Not being confrontational or anything, but that seems a bit of a faff to save £10k-£15k. My in laws are. They’ve sold but can’t find much they absolutely want.
However they now see this as a ‘free’ move due to not having to pay stamp duty. They may move again in a few years and make that the permanent one.
That’s the thinking anyway.
By the time they move again they’d have had that paid off the mortgage.
If they’re going to do two moves they’d be better off renting for a year then jumping back in. That’s what we are doing. That way they’ll be chain free and can jump when the ideal place comes up.
Seems the worst of both worlds to buy a house that’s not quite right.
They’ll have to try and sell theirs when their dream home comes up and even if they find a buyer in time, they will be in a chain.
Back on topic more generally, I don’t know how many times people can witness an age old pattern but not learn from it. This is the boom before the crash.
Nevermind. Fools rush in an’ all that.
Renting will cost them the saving they are getting on stamp duty. Plus the house they buy may be fine for them and they might not move again.
Bit of a faff I guess but is what it is. They don’t want to lose their buyer.
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