How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
Joey Deacon said:
Spent the weekend in the Witterings, it seems every single house for sale has a sold sign on it. No idea if this is normal, if people are deciding to move further out due to COVID, or if there is some sort of white flight happening and people are stopping as they have hit the sea.
We have been visiting for years now and prices seem to have risen drastically over that time. There are also lots of £million plus house in areas like Bosham that seem to being snapped up, clearly a lot of people have a lot of money to spend.
Lot of the places down there already second homes for people in London anyway, pretty standard bolthole. Which is as busy as London on a day you'd actually want to be there. Lovely though it is, I should imagine the best time to be there are spring/autumn.We have been visiting for years now and prices seem to have risen drastically over that time. There are also lots of £million plus house in areas like Bosham that seem to being snapped up, clearly a lot of people have a lot of money to spend.
number2 said:
JQ said:
Being totally reliant on a 3rd party travel operator is not something I'd be completely comfortable with in this brave new world. And I would be very wary of making any financial decisions based on current travel costs.
Yes. Things to be wary of:- Changes in travel cost, and availability of travel routes currently available.
- The fact we have only had 6 months of the push to WFH, which is not long in the scheme of things, and although the the future is uncertain, how much weight can be put on us not heading back to the old normal?
- Current employer may be happy with WFH, but 12 months down the line when we're perhaps closer in behaviour to where we were in Jan, or if job requirements change, or you need to find a new job, one may well be at a disadvantage in finding similarly paying employment if located so far away from the office (or others' offices) and there is a travel requirement.
It's a gamble taking long-term decisions on what is - at present - a short-term event. There is no 'new normal' yet.
Travel is easy and there are lots of options
Who can hedge a bet on the future ?
We are lucky, I can work from anywhere and her work could require her to be anywhere from Ireland to UK to Sweden and anywhere in between
I know someone here who is the head of accounts for a record company based in NY and LA
The world was changing rapidly, before COVID
rustyuk said:
My sons secondary school takes people from well outside catchment to fill the years intake.
The local primary school has closed half of the class rooms as there are not enough children. At last count I think there was 80 in the entire school.
We do have a well regarded private school in town so I'm guessing it must reduce demand at least a little.
It's competely weird how the numbers vary year to year though - you can't be sure of anything, especially for the first child. Village to village here, one school will be half empty (ours is) next village it'll be rammed. People flock to the popular schools.The local primary school has closed half of the class rooms as there are not enough children. At last count I think there was 80 in the entire school.
We do have a well regarded private school in town so I'm guessing it must reduce demand at least a little.
There's really only one Secondary school without chunky travelling and that's always been in very high demand. Couple of years ago a whole class from one of its traditional feeder schools didn't get in.
Earthdweller said:
We’ve been here a couple of years.. it’s not because of COVID
Travel is easy and there are lots of options
Who can hedge a bet on the future ?
We are lucky, I can work from anywhere and her work could require her to be anywhere from Ireland to UK to Sweden and anywhere in between
I know someone here who is the head of accounts for a record company based in NY and LA
The world was changing rapidly, before COVID
Post wasn't targeted at your position, and certainly for some people, having a 'decentralised' role (or other..) and being able to move away from the workplace has worked, and will continue to be viable. It may be for more in the future too. It's the en-masse move theory that I'm questioning, and therefore an anticipated market-wide shift in property prices, rather then a few highly paid people pumping prices up further in Harrogate (or similar).Travel is easy and there are lots of options
Who can hedge a bet on the future ?
We are lucky, I can work from anywhere and her work could require her to be anywhere from Ireland to UK to Sweden and anywhere in between
I know someone here who is the head of accounts for a record company based in NY and LA
The world was changing rapidly, before COVID
I'm looking forward to picking up a cheap flat in Mayfair if it does happen
.Earthdweller said:
number2 said:
JQ said:
Being totally reliant on a 3rd party travel operator is not something I'd be completely comfortable with in this brave new world. And I would be very wary of making any financial decisions based on current travel costs.
Yes. Things to be wary of:- Changes in travel cost, and availability of travel routes currently available.
- The fact we have only had 6 months of the push to WFH, which is not long in the scheme of things, and although the the future is uncertain, how much weight can be put on us not heading back to the old normal?
- Current employer may be happy with WFH, but 12 months down the line when we're perhaps closer in behaviour to where we were in Jan, or if job requirements change, or you need to find a new job, one may well be at a disadvantage in finding similarly paying employment if located so far away from the office (or others' offices) and there is a travel requirement.
It's a gamble taking long-term decisions on what is - at present - a short-term event. There is no 'new normal' yet.
Travel is easy and there are lots of options
Who can hedge a bet on the future ?
We are lucky, I can work from anywhere and her work could require her to be anywhere from Ireland to UK to Sweden and anywhere in between
I know someone here who is the head of accounts for a record company based in NY and LA
The world was changing rapidly, before COVID
Earthdweller said:
number2 said:
JQ said:
Being totally reliant on a 3rd party travel operator is not something I'd be completely comfortable with in this brave new world. And I would be very wary of making any financial decisions based on current travel costs.
Yes. Things to be wary of:- Changes in travel cost, and availability of travel routes currently available.
- The fact we have only had 6 months of the push to WFH, which is not long in the scheme of things, and although the the future is uncertain, how much weight can be put on us not heading back to the old normal?
- Current employer may be happy with WFH, but 12 months down the line when we're perhaps closer in behaviour to where we were in Jan, or if job requirements change, or you need to find a new job, one may well be at a disadvantage in finding similarly paying employment if located so far away from the office (or others' offices) and there is a travel requirement.
It's a gamble taking long-term decisions on what is - at present - a short-term event. There is no 'new normal' yet.
Travel is easy and there are lots of options
Who can hedge a bet on the future ?
We are lucky, I can work from anywhere and her work could require her to be anywhere from Ireland to UK to Sweden and anywhere in between
I know someone here who is the head of accounts for a record company based in NY and LA
The world was changing rapidly, before COVID
I'm based in NI but my contracted location is north London (and so is my pay category as luck would have it, despite living costs here being very cheap - happy days!)
I was given a location in Central England to manage a couple of years ago. I flew over to introduce myself and maybe went a further 1 or 2 times in 12 months. That was sufficient.
I'm now supporting 12 additional locations (oversight role, rather than day to day) 1 in NI, one in Dublin, 1 in Scotland and 9 in England.
I've been to the NI location a few times, the one in Liverpool once and never set foot in the other 10.
This wouldn't have been the case a couple of years ago, but with the savings in travel costs, mentality shifted and working remotely was encouraged where possible, simply to save on travel costs.
This was encouraged across all parts of our business as the combined company travel bill was eye watering.
Covid has simply proven that we can reduce central office working too. If there is no reason to be there, why be there?
In our business, I dont think we can shut office blocks completely- but we could certainly reduce the need, and just hot desk and have meeting rooms on a smaller building footprint than before.
Not currently but previously I worked in a very senior position with Regional Managers reporting to me.
“ Inspect what you expect” was my motto.
I could’ve worked from home, so could the Regionals (they each supervised Branch Managers)
But no.
I was on the road every day as were my team, face to face meetings, site inspection, supervision, trading reviews.
I needed to see people
How they conducted themselves, the intensity they were generating, how they were getting results and what there plan was when business fell short.
It wasn’t “Wolf of Wall Street” but it was pretty close.
Now, I can’t speak for others, I know things have changed. We were aggressive, didn’t suffer fools and were set up to deliver in a high growth industry.
I just couldn’t countenance that you’d get near our results if you WFH. You’d be history and fast.
So maybe some on here are not as pushy as we were and maybe others are - don’t know.
But sitting at home with a laptop and Zoom would not cut the mustard. Not a chance.
You had to be out there, seeing people and dishing it out. If someone worked from home it was because they were ill or struggling.
“ Inspect what you expect” was my motto.
I could’ve worked from home, so could the Regionals (they each supervised Branch Managers)
But no.
I was on the road every day as were my team, face to face meetings, site inspection, supervision, trading reviews.
I needed to see people
How they conducted themselves, the intensity they were generating, how they were getting results and what there plan was when business fell short.
It wasn’t “Wolf of Wall Street” but it was pretty close.
Now, I can’t speak for others, I know things have changed. We were aggressive, didn’t suffer fools and were set up to deliver in a high growth industry.
I just couldn’t countenance that you’d get near our results if you WFH. You’d be history and fast.
So maybe some on here are not as pushy as we were and maybe others are - don’t know.
But sitting at home with a laptop and Zoom would not cut the mustard. Not a chance.
You had to be out there, seeing people and dishing it out. If someone worked from home it was because they were ill or struggling.
Joey Deacon said:
Spent the weekend in the Witterings, it seems every single house for sale has a sold sign on it. No idea if this is normal, if people are deciding to move further out due to COVID, or if there is some sort of white flight happening and people are stopping as they have hit the sea.
We have been visiting for years now and prices seem to have risen drastically over that time. There are also lots of £million plus house in areas like Bosham that seem to being snapped up, clearly a lot of people have a lot of money to spend.
I wouldn’t say witterings are typical they’re basically the only place with sandy beaches for several hours and therefore extremely desirable. We have been visiting for years now and prices seem to have risen drastically over that time. There are also lots of £million plus house in areas like Bosham that seem to being snapped up, clearly a lot of people have a lot of money to spend.
Just got back from a week there myself. Love it down there but just way too busy to consider living there.
Agreed a price on one of my BTL houses today. The tenant is moving in with her partner so viewings were easy.
It’s a normal 20 year old 2 bedroom En suite end of terrace Bovis box house with garage on the side.
Initial thoughts were £245, agents valued £250-£260. Decided on sealed bids, midday today was closing, lowest bid was £240 but highest £288 from an investor, he is known to the agent and has already offered to exchange and complete on 30th September.
It’s a normal 20 year old 2 bedroom En suite end of terrace Bovis box house with garage on the side.
Initial thoughts were £245, agents valued £250-£260. Decided on sealed bids, midday today was closing, lowest bid was £240 but highest £288 from an investor, he is known to the agent and has already offered to exchange and complete on 30th September.
South tdf said:
Agreed a price on one of my BTL houses today. The tenant is moving in with her partner so viewings were easy.
It’s a normal 20 year old 2 bedroom En suite end of terrace Bovis box house with garage on the side.
Initial thoughts were £245, agents valued £250-£260. Decided on sealed bids, midday today was closing, lowest bid was £240 but highest £288 from an investor, he is known to the agent and has already offered to exchange and complete on 30th September.
Cannot be a particularly savvy one, offering so much over asking It’s a normal 20 year old 2 bedroom En suite end of terrace Bovis box house with garage on the side.
Initial thoughts were £245, agents valued £250-£260. Decided on sealed bids, midday today was closing, lowest bid was £240 but highest £288 from an investor, he is known to the agent and has already offered to exchange and complete on 30th September.
Thankyou4calling said:
Not currently but previously I worked in a very senior position with Regional Managers reporting to me.
“ Inspect what you expect” was my motto.
I could’ve worked from home, so could the Regionals (they each supervised Branch Managers)
But no.
I was on the road every day as were my team, face to face meetings, site inspection, supervision, trading reviews.
I needed to see people
How they conducted themselves, the intensity they were generating, how they were getting results and what there plan was when business fell short.
It wasn’t “Wolf of Wall Street” but it was pretty close.
Now, I can’t speak for others, I know things have changed. We were aggressive, didn’t suffer fools and were set up to deliver in a high growth industry.
I just couldn’t countenance that you’d get near our results if you WFH. You’d be history and fast.
So maybe some on here are not as pushy as we were and maybe others are - don’t know.
But sitting at home with a laptop and Zoom would not cut the mustard. Not a chance.
You had to be out there, seeing people and dishing it out. If someone worked from home it was because they were ill or struggling.
Sounds like a rant from Grandpa Simpson...“ Inspect what you expect” was my motto.
I could’ve worked from home, so could the Regionals (they each supervised Branch Managers)
But no.
I was on the road every day as were my team, face to face meetings, site inspection, supervision, trading reviews.
I needed to see people
How they conducted themselves, the intensity they were generating, how they were getting results and what there plan was when business fell short.
It wasn’t “Wolf of Wall Street” but it was pretty close.
Now, I can’t speak for others, I know things have changed. We were aggressive, didn’t suffer fools and were set up to deliver in a high growth industry.
I just couldn’t countenance that you’d get near our results if you WFH. You’d be history and fast.
So maybe some on here are not as pushy as we were and maybe others are - don’t know.
But sitting at home with a laptop and Zoom would not cut the mustard. Not a chance.
You had to be out there, seeing people and dishing it out. If someone worked from home it was because they were ill or struggling.
Plenty of hugely successful and profitable organisations, with a WFH culture. Aggression and a “Glengarry Glenross” culture is bulls
t, and a sign of a business stuck in the past. menousername said:
Cannot be a particularly savvy one, offering so much over asking
It’s how much over the next best offer that’s more relevant.The price bid depends very much on their reasons for making the purchase - and those reasons may not be immediately clear.some property is worth more to some people - may depend on what they already own - maybe they already have a tenant lined up prepared to pay a premium - maybe they own the surrounding properties and have a long term plan - you just never know, but sometimes an extra 10-20k is worth it......
Carbon Sasquatch said:
It’s how much over the next best offer that’s more relevant.
The price bid depends very much on their reasons for making the purchase - and those reasons may not be immediately clear.some property is worth more to some people - may depend on what they already own - maybe they already have a tenant lined up prepared to pay a premium - maybe they own the surrounding properties and have a long term plan - you just never know, but sometimes an extra 10-20k is worth it......
Most of the offers were within £270-275 with the only higher ones at £285 and £285,600. The price bid depends very much on their reasons for making the purchase - and those reasons may not be immediately clear.some property is worth more to some people - may depend on what they already own - maybe they already have a tenant lined up prepared to pay a premium - maybe they own the surrounding properties and have a long term plan - you just never know, but sometimes an extra 10-20k is worth it......
Apparently there are at least 4 investors fighting to buy up all the 2-3 bed stuff in the area with the winning bidder having a rumoured £3m still to spend so they have worked out how to price these houses.
When I purchased the property it was because it was modern, has a low maintenance garden and had the en suite so ideal for renting.
South tdf said:
Most of the offers were within £270-275 with the only higher ones at £285 and £285,600.
Apparently there are at least 4 investors fighting to buy up all the 2-3 bed stuff in the area with the winning bidder having a rumoured £3m still to spend so they have worked out how to price these houses.
If this is known to the agents why go to sealed bids? They could probably have the top cash investors bidding against each other until at least another 20k was reached. One was outbid by a few hundred so they would go higher.Apparently there are at least 4 investors fighting to buy up all the 2-3 bed stuff in the area with the winning bidder having a rumoured £3m still to spend so they have worked out how to price these houses.
No issue with mortgage valuations etc
menousername said:
South tdf said:
Most of the offers were within £270-275 with the only higher ones at £285 and £285,600.
Apparently there are at least 4 investors fighting to buy up all the 2-3 bed stuff in the area with the winning bidder having a rumoured £3m still to spend so they have worked out how to price these houses.
If this is known to the agents why go to sealed bids? They could probably have the top cash investors bidding against each other until at least another 20k was reached. One was outbid by a few hundred so they would go higher.Apparently there are at least 4 investors fighting to buy up all the 2-3 bed stuff in the area with the winning bidder having a rumoured £3m still to spend so they have worked out how to price these houses.
No issue with mortgage valuations etc
Anyone competing locally who actually needs a mortgage...
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