How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[V6Alfisti]

gibbon said:

You have said the graph shows negative market sentiment, it doesnt. It shows interest as at its highest ever since records began for this metric (i.e. at the reference 100) and has just started to dip on seasonal trends, however is still well above yearly averages for this season.

Sorry, i just do not get your point, you are either being deliberately disingenuous or you dont understand the graph.

Apologies to labour the point, theres many things that we can all argue opinion about, but this isnt a point out of context its nonsense.

I said the levels of interest, which well it does...because its going down ! but as I also said, this is a very early indication but matches previous seasonal trends.

Also it is definitely not the first time 100 has been seen in the past....look back to 2013, 2014, and 2015 is only 3 points off .

Yet all of those didn't have a forced lock down for months, I would have expected it to be much higher than certainly 2015, given the market was shut for literally months then stamp duty brought all that demand forward.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&...

To the contrary, I am not sure what graph you are looking at, because your points make little sense given the level of noise you are making.

The point is VERY simple, there has been an upwards curve in rightmove interest and then has just started to dip, this would indicate (as I said) if it continues that even in this odd/forced situation that it is mirroring seasonal trends (as I said, and I quote " does look like it's following historic trends of August being the highest and then falling back") and it isn't completely defying gravity .

That is all. What don't you get?

[gibbon]

V6Alfisti said:

I said the levels of interest, which well it does...because its going down ! but as I also said, this is a very early indication but matches previous seasonal trends.

Also it is definitely not the first time 100 has been seen in the past....look back to 2013, 2014, and 2015 is only 3 points off .

Yet all of those didn't have a forced lock down for months, I would have expected it to be much higher than certainly 2015, given the market was shut for literally months then stamp duty brought all that demand forward.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&...

To the contrary, I am not sure what graph you are looking at, because your points make little sense given the level of noise you are making.

The point is VERY simple, there has been an upwards curve in rightmove interest and then has just started to dip, this would indicate (as I said) if it continues that even in this odd/forced situation that it is mirroring seasonal trends (as I said, and I quote " does look like it's following historic trends of August being the highest and then falling back") and it isn't completely defying gravity .

That is all. What don't you get?

100 by the nature of the data is exactly as high as it is possible to be, Sept is 96, the highest reading for that month in the data set.

Ok mate, you dont understand the graph. Others can look and decide themselves.

I hope you dont work with numbers and data for a living.

Edited by gibbon on Tuesday 29th September 16:14

[turbobloke]

spreadsheet monkey said:

fido said:

dmahon said:

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/55359170...

The fact that they highlight '4 Piece Modern Bathroom Suite' - that's got to be written by a junior / part-timer.

Bathroom looks decent to me? Am I missing something?

Quite, never mind the bathroom just look at the feng shui implications of that stairs/door alignment in pic 2

[ooid]

spreadsheet monkey said:

Bathroom looks decent to me? Am I missing something?

It's a pretty decent property imho, I've visited. I really do not know the other areas outside of London, so can't say what people think/consider better value within the same price range.

V6Alfisti said:

But what about the 43 of 47 homes that didn't go SSTC in the last 14 days of listing?

I don't know. I've mentioned before, I do not think you can easily make global predictions in the housing market. Location, conditions and etc. are all different parameters. I've been simply looking around East London for the last 13 years, and what I've seen so far is more than an incremental increase of the prices overall. For instance, I have no idea about South London such as SW or SE..

My main parameters were simple; an ideal travel time to London City and Stansted Airports while being in London.

[V6Alfisti]

gibbon said:

100 by the nature of the data is exactly as high as it is possible to be, Sept is 96, the highest reading for that month in the data set.

Ok mate, you dont understand the graph. Others can look and decide themselves.

I hope you dont work with numbers and data for a living.

Edited by gibbon on Tuesday 29th September 16:14

Is that really your best attempt at trying to slur someone, the fact is what I said. It is a sign (not that is the absolute sign of doom and gloom, just a sign that it is following a not totally abnormal seasonal tail off, and it's not defying gravity) as a 100 in August and 96 in Sept has been seen before (multiple times for August). That is a fact. I have never said any more than that.

The ability to apply more than one data point within a roadmap of causality and impending action is clearly a little too much of a stretch for you. We will be back in a few months, once this is all laid out for you. I equally genuinely hope you don't work with numbers/data, because you seemingly can't apply any applied thinking to a situation.

The overall thing here, is that this is such a mute point (given it was flagged as just an initial minor sign of typical seasonality) it's not even worth discussing to this extent but clearly it upset you.

Anyway let's discuss this no further.

[V6Alfisti]

ooid said:

I don't know. I've mentioned before, I do not think you can easily make global predictions in the housing market. Location, conditions and etc. are all different parameters. I've been simply looking around East London for the last 13 years, and what I've seen so far is more than an incremental increase of the prices overall. For instance, I have no idea about South London such as SW or SE..

My main parameters were simple; an ideal travel time to London City and Stansted Airports while being in London.

Totally agree, housing just doesn't work that way. I know some think my usual "it depends on street, area, type of property e.t.c" is a cop out catch all but it's just true.

Although it does look like only a very small proportion of E11 is going SSTC (10%) apart from the handful of properties you post, so that really does take the "every property is different" to an extreme I haven't seen to quite that level, normally you would see some other mix of SSTC but not in E11 if rightmove is right.

I am not surprised about east London growing, London has always typically shot up in the areas that were less desirable, made more so, new people move into the area and then the values increase. Happened in shoreditch, happened in Walthamstow e.t.c.

[NickCQ]

https://www.ft.com/content/a1d7fcc7-c2ec-490a-bee2...

FT said:

House prices in the UK increased in September, continuing a surge that has taken many experts by surprise as the country grapples with the economic fallout of coronavirus. 

Nationwide, the building society, said on Wednesday that average prices increased 0.9 per cent between August and September, putting them 5 per cent higher than at the same time last year.

The question is how long it takes for the drop in front-end viewing activity to roll through to prices / volumes. I would expect at least 2-3 months.

[turbobloke]

NickCQ said:

https://www.ft.com/content/a1d7fcc7-c2ec-490a-bee2...

FT said:

House prices in the UK increased in September, continuing a surge that has taken many experts by surprise as the country grapples with the economic fallout of coronavirus. 

Nationwide, the building society, said on Wednesday that average prices increased 0.9 per cent between August and September, putting them 5 per cent higher than at the same time last year.

The question is how long it takes for the drop in front-end viewing activity to roll through to prices / volumes. I would expect at least 2-3 months.

Then a month or two further down the line in the spring of 2021 see how long it takes for a likely increase in viewing to work through? Vol 5 with this thread title is wearing thin!

[gibbon]

V6Alfisti said:

Is that really your best attempt at trying to slur someone, the fact is what I said. It is a sign (not that is the absolute sign of doom and gloom, just a sign that it is following a not totally abnormal seasonal tail off, and it's not defying gravity) as a 100 in August and 96 in Sept has been seen before (multiple times for August). That is a fact. I have never said any more than that.

The ability to apply more than one data point within a roadmap of causality and impending action is clearly a little too much of a stretch for you. We will be back in a few months, once this is all laid out for you. I equally genuinely hope you don't work with numbers/data, because you seemingly can't apply any applied thinking to a situation.

The overall thing here, is that this is such a mute point (given it was flagged as just an initial minor sign of typical seasonality) it's not even worth discussing to this extent but clearly it upset you.

Anyway let's discuss this no further.

Doesnt upset me at all, but i do think presenting record high interest in property as negative for the casual reader of this thread is disingenuous, thats all.

I think you have extreme confirmation bias of your housing life choices, which tbh is understandable, you have chosen to short the property market and put buying on hold for what, 4 years? During that time we have had Brexit looming and an international pandemic, and yet as a NATIONAL statistic uk residential property is at its highest average price. The quesiton I would be asking, and am, is if prices, at a national level, dont drop now, then when the hell are they going to?

[turbobloke]

To state the obvious, that's a very good question.

[kingston12]

gibbon said:

During that time we have had Brexit looming and an international pandemic, and yet as a NATIONAL statistic uk residential property is at its highest average price. The quesiton I would be asking, and am, is if prices, at a national level, dont drop now, then when the hell are they going to?

At this point, it would need to be a combination of factors - if unemployment amongst higher earners really spikes next year, the banks decide to further de-risk their mortgage offers and government factors like HtB and SD holiday are removed that might cause some downward pressure.

It will certainly take a lot now because attitudes have changed so much. There was talk a few pages back about people deliberately taking on as big a mortgage as possible just before certain redundancy. That's probably quite an extreme example, but its something that just wouldn't have happened a few years ago.

[V6Alfisti]

gibbon said:

Doesnt upset me at all, but i do think presenting record high interest in property as negative for the casual reader of this thread is disingenuous, thats all.

I think you have extreme confirmation bias of your housing life choices, which tbh is understandable, you have chosen to short the property market and put buying on hold for what, 4 years? During that time we have had Brexit looming and an international pandemic, and yet as a NATIONAL statistic uk residential property is at its highest average price. The quesiton I would be asking, and am, is if prices, at a national level, dont drop now, then when the hell are they going to?

Give it up, it's the opposite of disingenuous. It literally said something to the effect of "this seems to be matching usual seasonal change".

You clearly do care and you must have quite a position on housing to get so upset when someone flags (ps: it wasn't even me that originally posted it) that the interest in rightmove is following seasonality and it's not all going up. Let alone all the other data that this is less than universal e.t.c and certainly not a case of everywhere is seeing the same impact. That is a vastly more disingenuous picture to paint for the "casual reader". Also property isn't priced nationally, it's local, and no one area is the same, and neither are all areas universally seeing the boom.

None of this is a surprise, the point you can't seem to understand. All of this was predicted/predicatable, if you shut a market for 3-4 months, it is going to be busy for a period once it reopens. In fact, I predicted (not mystic meg, just an understanding of markets and a touch of common sense) just that on this thread. In the same way when lockdown was enforced and the market was dropping everyone said "well this is a forced period, so not a surprise" - fair enough. Equally, we are now in the flip side of that, where demand has all been pushed forward into a small window, the difference is everyone suddenly has amnesia and the inability to apply critical thinking because it favours the seller, this is what is actually disingenuous to the "casual reader".

We haven't seen the end of furlough, we haven't got a brexit decision and we are probably still in that period where people can take some advantage of a temporary measure. So as I said months ago (but clearly without knowing about the temp stamp duty change), it will likely come over the negative economic news starts coming in and one of the biggest starts of that, will quite likely be the end of furlough. Perhaps then, and not in this short boom period that was entirely predictable but further hurried up by the temporary stamp change.

Let alone all the other independent bodies forecasts CEBR, and RICS (negative sentiment forecast) because they aren't all buying this false dawn, let alone the finance restrictions which are already in place. Not bringing any of that balance in here and shutting anyone down that brings balance is poor form and frankly disingenuous to the casual reader imo.

No-one can forecast exactly what will happen per road,area e.t.c, but equally anyone looking at the last 2 months and supporting a view that this will continue and jumping on anyone that goes against the hamster wheel grain of this forum, is misleading.

Like I said, this place can be very much like HPC but with the opposite message. If you quite rightly criticise HPC, look in the mirror.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 30th September 11:15

[MX6]

gibbon said:

The quesiton I would be asking, and am, is if prices, at a national level, dont drop now, then when the hell are they going to?

I guess no one really know the answer to that, but I think at least part of the answer has to be, when peoples affordability is maxed out, or if sentiment really takes a beating. Many are earning decent money, receiving the chunky inheritance, rates are on the deck, banks lending larger income multiples in the past, etc. There is generally high demand for desireable houses in desireable area, plenty seem to be willing to stretch themselves to get in the door. Yes we can build more out of town housing estates, but generally not more character period homes close to the town, railway station, etc. There is perhaps good value to be found in cheaper parts of the country away from the cities, so I would expect some rises there as people work from home more.

Property ownership at the expensive of almost all else seems to be part of our national culture, and buyers can afford to buy houses at the current prices so it looks like the affordability for many is out there. It is somewhat surprising quite now resilient sentiment is in the face of brexit, covid and all the rest of it. I'm no different to be fair, I've prioritised having a decent house over expensive cars and general lifestyle for example. Pretty much everything you can want/need can be bought for cheap these days, if you are resourceful, except for houses.

[number2]

turbobloke said:

NickCQ said:

https://www.ft.com/content/a1d7fcc7-c2ec-490a-bee2...

FT said:

House prices in the UK increased in September, continuing a surge that has taken many experts by surprise as the country grapples with the economic fallout of coronavirus. 

Nationwide, the building society, said on Wednesday that average prices increased 0.9 per cent between August and September, putting them 5 per cent higher than at the same time last year.

The question is how long it takes for the drop in front-end viewing activity to roll through to prices / volumes. I would expect at least 2-3 months.

Then a month or two further down the line in the spring of 2021 see how long it takes for a likely increase in viewing to work through? Vol 5 with this thread title is wearing thin!

That's true . Prices move around in the short term, and it is a bit of a pantomime!

[anonymous-user]

MX6 said:

Property ownership at the expensive of almost all else seems to be part of our national culture, and buyers can afford to buy houses at the current prices so it looks like the affordability for many is out there. It is somewhat surprising quite now resilient sentiment is in the face of brexit, covid and all the rest of it. I'm no different to be fair, I've prioritised having a decent house over expensive cars and general lifestyle for example. Pretty much everything you can want/need can be bought for cheap these days, if you are resourceful, except for houses.

I would 100% agree with you, I have done the same. I have a 13 year old car, a 7 year old laptop, a £200 android phone and a big TV I paid £800 for three years ago. All of them work perfectly, I honestly cannot think of a single thing I actually want to spend my money on right now. I used to constantly buy DVDs and CDs, these days anything I want I can download in seconds.

I am just about to remortgage my BTL property, £180K at 1.61% on interest only is going to cost me £241 a month. I couldn't even lease a half decent car for that.

I remember after the brexit vote everyone saying that house prices were going to fall, I suspect there are people who are still waiting for this to happen.

[gibbon]

V6Alfisti said:

You clearly do care and you must have quite a position on housing to get so upset when someone flags

None of this is a surprise, the point you can't seem to understand. All of this was predicted/predicatable,

We haven't seen the end of furlough, we haven't got a brexit decision

No-one can forecast exactly what will happen per road,area e.t.c, but equally anyone looking at the last 2 months and supporting a view that this will continue and jumping on anyone that goes against the hamster wheel grain of this forum, is misleading.

Like I said, this place can be very much like HPC but with the opposite message.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Wednesday 30th September 11:06

As you have asked, I have a passion for my home, architecture, design, and i am lucky that i can afford to live in a type of home, in an area, that i want to, without being leveraged up, I feel very fortunate. However i am not obsessed by the price, its not hugely relevant to me in my daily life or near to medium term plans. I would wager you have far more interest in house price variance than I.

But as are on the House price thread, here is something that just popped up on my news feed-



Average UK House Price Hits New Record High in September

By Vicky Shaw and PA Personal Finance Correspondent

September 30 (Press Association) -- The average UK house price has hit a new record in September, pushing over £225,000 for the first time, according to an index.

Nationwide Building Society said the average UK house price was £226,129 in September - the first time it has been above the £225,000 mark.
In August, the average house price was £224,123.

House prices increased by 5% annually in September, marking the highest growth rate in four years. Prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said: "UK house prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month in September, after taking account of seasonal effects, following a 2.0% rise in August.
"As a result, there was a further pick up in annual house price growth from 3.7% in August to 5.0% in September - the highest level since September 2016.

Here are average house prices across the third quarter of this year and the annual change, according to Nationwide Building Society:

- South West, £260,316, 5.5%
- Outer Metropolitan (includes Basildon, Dartford, Epping Forest, Harlow, St Albans, Stevenage, Watford, Maidstone, Reading, Slough, Guildford, Woking, Tunbridge Wells, Windsor and Maidenhead) £376,682, 5.0%
- Outer South East (includes Aylesbury Vale, Bedford, Braintree, Brighton and Hove, Canterbury, Colchester, Dover, Isle of Wight, Milton Keynes, New Forest, Oxford, Portsmouth, Southampton, Thanet, Uttlesford, Winchester and Worthing), £291,404, 4.8%
- Yorkshire and the Humber, £167,816, 4.6%
- London, £480,857, 4.4%
- North East, £132,898, 4.2%
- East Midlands, £194,749, 4.0%
- Wales, £165,423, 3.8%
- West Midlands, £200,622, 3.1%
- North West, £171,675, 3.0%
- East Anglia, £238,896, 2.7%
- Scotland, £153,347, 2.0%
- Northern Ireland, £146,152, 1.5%

[number2]

Joey Deacon said:

MX6 said:

Property ownership at the expensive of almost all else seems to be part of our national culture, and buyers can afford to buy houses at the current prices so it looks like the affordability for many is out there. It is somewhat surprising quite now resilient sentiment is in the face of brexit, covid and all the rest of it. I'm no different to be fair, I've prioritised having a decent house over expensive cars and general lifestyle for example. Pretty much everything you can want/need can be bought for cheap these days, if you are resourceful, except for houses.

I would 100% agree with you, I have done the same. I have a 13 year old car, a 7 year old laptop, a £200 android phone and a big TV I paid £800 for three years ago. All of them work perfectly, I honestly cannot think of a single thing I actually want to spend my money on right now. I used to constantly buy DVDs and CDs, these days anything I want I can download in seconds.

I am just about to remortgage my BTL property, £180K at 1.61% on interest only is going to cost me £241 a month. I couldn't even lease a half decent car for that.

I remember after the brexit vote everyone saying that house prices were going to fall, I suspect there are people who are still waiting for this to happen.

And that is why car companies (finance companies... ) want people stuck on the never ending lease cycle.

Anyway back on topic. House prices long term are linked to affordability. Short term fluctuations - regional etc. etc. - happen of course, and sentiment plays a large part, but long term it's affordability driving demand. We assume here there isn't aggregate over-supply which is evidenced.

[V6Alfisti]

gibbon said:

As you have asked, I have a passion for my home, architecture, design, and i am lucky that i can afford to live in a type of home, in an area, that i want to, without being leveraged up, I feel very fortunate. However i am not obsessed by the price, its not hugely relevant to me in my daily life or near to medium term plans. I would wager you have far more interest in house price variance than I.

But as are on the House price thread, here is something that just popped up on my news feed-



Average UK House Price Hits New Record High in September

By Vicky Shaw and PA Personal Finance Correspondent

September 30 (Press Association) -- The average UK house price has hit a new record in September, pushing over £225,000 for the first time, according to an index.

Nationwide Building Society said the average UK house price was £226,129 in September - the first time it has been above the £225,000 mark.
In August, the average house price was £224,123.

House prices increased by 5% annually in September, marking the highest growth rate in four years. Prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said: "UK house prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month in September, after taking account of seasonal effects, following a 2.0% rise in August.
"As a result, there was a further pick up in annual house price growth from 3.7% in August to 5.0% in September - the highest level since September 2016.

Here are average house prices across the third quarter of this year and the annual change, according to Nationwide Building Society:

- South West, £260,316, 5.5%
- Outer Metropolitan (includes Basildon, Dartford, Epping Forest, Harlow, St Albans, Stevenage, Watford, Maidstone, Reading, Slough, Guildford, Woking, Tunbridge Wells, Windsor and Maidenhead) £376,682, 5.0%
- Outer South East (includes Aylesbury Vale, Bedford, Braintree, Brighton and Hove, Canterbury, Colchester, Dover, Isle of Wight, Milton Keynes, New Forest, Oxford, Portsmouth, Southampton, Thanet, Uttlesford, Winchester and Worthing), £291,404, 4.8%
- Yorkshire and the Humber, £167,816, 4.6%
- London, £480,857, 4.4%
- North East, £132,898, 4.2%
- East Midlands, £194,749, 4.0%
- Wales, £165,423, 3.8%
- West Midlands, £200,622, 3.1%
- North West, £171,675, 3.0%
- East Anglia, £238,896, 2.7%
- Scotland, £153,347, 2.0%
- Northern Ireland, £146,152, 1.5%

Righto, that doesn't correlate with your responses in any way but we will take your word for it of course

What is laughable about the above, see if you can guess before I write why...

1) This still reflects the "as is" in the forced boom period which everyone seems as temporary, what does this say about the longevity? Zero
2) It is not sold values
3) This is still HIGHLY average and doesn't even break down into the thousands of sub areas or property types, to show you how misleading this is, compare that to the latest land registry which peels the onion one more layer (but still averaged, and at least ALL sold properties).

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-hous...

Ashford -1.40%
Barrow-in-Furness -1.40%
Blackburn with Darwen -1.60%
Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole -0.50%
Bradford -2.10%
Breckland -1.30%
Bromley -0.40%
Broxbourne -1.60%
Camden -4.30%
Chelmsford -0.50%
Chorley -2.20%
City of Westminster -0.20%
County Durham -5.50%
Darlington -3.10%
Derbyshire Dales -3.10%
Ealing -1.30%
East Cambridgeshire -0.20%
East Hertfordshire -1.20%
East Lindsey -0.20%
Eastbourne -5.00%
Epping Forest -0.40%
Gateshead -1.90%
Gosport -3.00%
Gravesham -2.20%
Great Yarmouth -3.20%
Hammersmith and Fulham -1.20%
Harrogate -4.90%
Harrow -0.20%
Hartlepool -3.30%
Hastings -0.80%
Lancaster -2.20%
Luton -1.50%
Manchester -4.50%
Medway -0.70%
Melton -6.20%
Middlesbrough -8.30%
Milton Keynes -0.40%
North Devon -0.10%
North Norfolk -3.70%
Oxford -1.80%
Reading -2.40%
Redcar and Cleveland -3.40%
Ribble Valley -1.50%
Rochford -2.70%
Rotherham -0.40%
Rutland -3.70%
Scarborough -1.20%
Slough -3.40%
Solihull -3.30%
South Bucks -0.10%
South Lakeland -5.70%
South Tyneside -4.10%
Stevenage -3.40%
Stockton-on-Tees -1.30%
Stoke-on-Trent -3.50%
Stratford-on-Avon -3.30%
Surrey Heath -1.80%
Welwyn Hatfield -1.70%
West Berkshire -1.40%
West Devon -1.20%
Woking -0.60%
Worcester -3.90%
Worthing -2.70%
Wycombe -1.70%

Even within this there will be massive variances and it wouldn't surprise me if this changes (due to associated delays in data).

Not to say that a decent level of areas (but not all properties types) haven't seen growth, but the reasons for that being a temporary blip have been laid out a million times.

[gibbon]

number2 said:

Joey Deacon said:

MX6 said:

Property ownership at the expensive of almost all else seems to be part of our national culture, and buyers can afford to buy houses at the current prices so it looks like the affordability for many is out there. It is somewhat surprising quite now resilient sentiment is in the face of brexit, covid and all the rest of it. I'm no different to be fair, I've prioritised having a decent house over expensive cars and general lifestyle for example. Pretty much everything you can want/need can be bought for cheap these days, if you are resourceful, except for houses.

I would 100% agree with you, I have done the same. I have a 13 year old car, a 7 year old laptop, a £200 android phone and a big TV I paid £800 for three years ago. All of them work perfectly, I honestly cannot think of a single thing I actually want to spend my money on right now. I used to constantly buy DVDs and CDs, these days anything I want I can download in seconds.

I am just about to remortgage my BTL property, £180K at 1.61% on interest only is going to cost me £241 a month. I couldn't even lease a half decent car for that.

I remember after the brexit vote everyone saying that house prices were going to fall, I suspect there are people who are still waiting for this to happen.

And that is why car companies (finance companies... ) want people stuck on the never ending lease cycle.

Anyway back on topic. House prices long term are linked to affordability. Short term fluctuations - regional etc. etc. - happen of course, and sentiment plays a large part, but long term it's affordability driving demand. We assume here there isn't aggregate over-supply which is evidenced.

That is EXACTLY it, money is cheap, inflation is coming. Conventional methods of valuing debt will change, at an international, national, local and individual scale, this is a one way street, we are not paying off our national debts.

If money is cheap, and hard assets are finite, do you want to be long or short the asset? Thats before you even consider the uk emotional element of property ownership.

I have a flat i bought 10 years ago, i just remortgaged at 1.3%, on a buy to let mortgage! My interest only is £250, it rents for £2200 a month. Why would i possibly sell it?

[gibbon]

V6Alfisti said:

Righto, that doesn't correlate with your responses in any way but we will take your word for it of course

No, please expand, how so?