How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[MX-6]

princeperch said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Last sold for.....£265k in 2012.

They've spent 100k on it, but can we rewind the clock to 2012 please ?

It's certainly big bucks for what was essentially a 2 up, 2 down mid terrace cottage, but it looks like they've done a decent job of maximising the internal space, 111 sq. m is respectable. It's around 13 'n' 'arf foot wide at least.

I've actually more of an issue this type of property in the town where I work, Hitchin, Herts. Here's an example, a small mid terrace cottage type house, £450k. I picked an especially pricey one but still...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

It's not even that close to London, but is commutable to Kings X, so it's obviously the smoke money coming up that's inflated these, I don't see any other way to justify the price. I can't even afford to buy a decent house here because London, I live in Bedford where it's literally less than half the price for an equivalent house.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

[ooid]

East London has always been the "value" imho. Quite good connections to the city, regenerations, nature (loads green areas), and finally for me personally close distance to the local airports. My current work is based in central London (Near Tate), but I would not really live close to that area, personally I can't see the value in comparison to East. The crime and anti-social behaviour is a bit of myth also, I've seen more of that when I was living in Clerkenwell...

[number2]

okgo said:

Burwood said:

I think they've spent a lot more than £100K. At least 150k maybe more . Just my opinion. And it's irrelevant. It will sell for what it's worth

Why do you think that? It looks pretty cheaply done to me. And they haven't done the side return, which generally are more expensive than lofts...

Very cheap. Lick of paint and a kitchen from a skip.

Surprising - but I guess it's still being refurbed as a cheap suburban terrace. It'll get a better job done when its at the £1m + mark as the owners will (probably) have have the money to do it, and higher expectations at that price point.

edit: I was talking about the Twickenham house for >£700k. Same could be said for the east London house though. Like a 90's 'changing rooms' makeover.

[ooid]

princeperch said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

Last sold for.....£265k in 2012.

They've spent 100k on it, but can we rewind the clock to 2012 please ?

Here is also a 3 bed one, with a bigger garden, about 3 miles away in E12, at 500k.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/56449679...

[PrinceRupert]

ooid said:

Here is also a 3 bed one, with a bigger garden, about 3 miles away in E12, at 500k.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/56449679...

Isn't Manor Park and such really grim?

I remember when we were looking we noticed some very (relatively speaking) cheap properties in that neck of the woods.

If not, that place looks very good value.

[ooid]

V6Alfisti said:

Nothing to argue about.

E11 will certainly have gone up since 2012 as most places in London will have, I have always said prices in quite a few London areas rolled back to 2015/2016ish. (Every area is different, and some won't have done this).

E11 in particular as it's seemingly been surrounded by "transformation", so not following the normal path.
[/footnote]

Let's see how long this one is gonna stay on the market? 4 bed terraced, 1.1 million. (last sold in 1995, £125000)

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/56486679...

[ooid]

PrinceRupert said:

Isn't Manor Park and such really grim?

I remember when we were looking we noticed some very (relatively speaking) cheap properties in that neck of the woods.

If not, that place looks very good value.

On the first look, yes it does look grim indeed but when you compare the properties in E11, like 1-2 miles away they are nearly double price. Manor Park, Forest Gate and Leyton really good value imho. Many young locals moving in to the area, who can't afford mega-prices of E3 or E9 anymore.]

I've lost this one two years ago in a bidding war.. (It's gone for 575.0000) 5 bed, semi-detached.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/11-plais...

[gibbon]

ooid said:

On the first look, yes it does look grim indeed but when you compare the properties in E11, like 1-2 miles away they are nearly double price. Manor Park, Forest Gate and Leyton really good value imho. Many young locals moving in to the area, who can't afford mega-prices of E3 or E9 anymore.]

I've lost this one two years ago in a bidding war.. (It's gone for 575.0000) 5 bed, semi-detached.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/11-plais...

This has been the path of a huge amount of my friends in the last 2-3 years. E3 and E9 flats to houses in E11.

Hows this property short looking with Bo-Jo creating 'generation buy'?

[number2]

ooid said:

PrinceRupert said:

Isn't Manor Park and such really grim?

I remember when we were looking we noticed some very (relatively speaking) cheap properties in that neck of the woods.

If not, that place looks very good value.

On the first look, yes it does look grim indeed but when you compare the properties in E11, like 1-2 miles away they are nearly double price. Manor Park, Forest Gate and Leyton really good value imho. Many young locals moving in to the area, who can't afford mega-prices of E3 or E9 anymore.]

I've lost this one two years ago in a bidding war.. (It's gone for 575.0000) 5 bed, semi-detached.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/11-plais...

Grim absolutely. East London - East Ham, Manor Park etc - seems to have been stubbornly against gentrification. There's been a lot happening in Stratford and Wanstead (ooid's posts?) so perhaps this is the next place to bet on eventually succumbing to the young professional influx.

[PrinceRupert]

number2 said:

Grim absolutely. East London - East Ham, Manor Park etc - seems to have been stubbornly against gentrification. There's been a lot happening in Stratford and Wanstead (ooid's posts?) so perhaps this is the next place to bet on eventually succumbing to the young professional influx.

We (young professional couple) ended up in SE9, but think those areas are more likely to gentrify as E London is better connected to City and trendy spots like Hackney / Shoreditch etc than SE.

[okgo]

PrinceRupert said:

We (young professional couple) ended up in SE9, but think those areas are more likely to gentrify as E London is better connected to City and trendy spots like Hackney / Shoreditch etc than SE.

Hither Green seemed to be well on the way, lots of people I know have moved there.

[MX-6]

So as per usual the government are planning to prop up the housing market. Boris is talking of "long term, fixed rate" 95% mortgage for FTB's, it seems to be some sort of guarantee scheme like HTB but it's light on details.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/06/first-time-buyers-t...

I guess it's a good thing, for FTB's getting onto the so called ladder and for existing owners/sellers as well. It will go some way to help prop up current prices, so those wanting a crash might be disappointed.

[anonymous-user]

MX-6 said:

So as per usual the government are planning to prop up the housing market. Boris is talking of "long term, fixed rate" 95% mortgage for FTB's, it seems to be some sort of guarantee scheme like HTB but it's light on details.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/06/first-time-buyers-t...

I guess it's a good thing, for FTB's getting onto the so called ladder and for existing owners/sellers as well. It will go some way to help prop up current prices, so those wanting a crash might be disappointed.

The HousePriceCrashers must be going mental. For months they have been calling peak and expecting massive falls and the government once again do everything they can to stop prices falling.

If this comes off then the market will go crazy, suddenly there will be millions of people added to the market who could never have afforded a house otherwise. We will go back to open house inspections and houses going to sealed bids.

[V6Alfisti]

ooid said:

Let's see how long this one is gonna stay on the market? 4 bed terraced, 1.1 million. (last sold in 1995, £125000)

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/56486679...

Really not sure what that proves? We have never discussed 1995, ps: it will certainly sell for more than £125k

I am dissapointed it hasn't gone already ooid, you have now gone to posting houses that haven't even sold yet, but in E12. God help us.

Once it's sold and gone through land registry, let us all know please . I am on the edge of my seat.

Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 6th October 15:40

[gibbon]

If they do actually do something with a retail element to it, something along the lines of lend goverment backed 95% mortgages at 2.25% (for example), then package up as gov backed bonds at 2% for retail customers (taking a 25 tick haircut) can you imagine how big the demand would be?

There are a huge number of people out there looking for some kind of 'secure' yield for cash, and it would seem a decent amount of people looking to borrow for their first property.

It would basically be government backed credit arbitrage for those with access to funding at around circa 1%.

[NickCQ]

gibbon said:

If they do actually do something with a retail element to it, something along the lines of lend goverment backed 95% mortgages at 2.25% (for example), then package up as gov backed bonds at 2% for retail customers (taking a 25 tick haircut) can you imagine how big the demand would be?

US has a somewhat similar system with the GSEs but you need proper fixed income investors on the backend that are willing to sign up for 30 year fixed rate risk rather than retail punters who are not willing to lock their money away for that period of time. However, your 25 bps spread will not be enough to cover the cost of the government guarantee and origination / servicing costs - I would at least double it.

These guys (https://www.perenna.co.uk/) are trying to do it using pension / insurance company money.

[MX-6]

Joey Deacon said:

MX-6 said:

So as per usual the government are planning to prop up the housing market. Boris is talking of "long term, fixed rate" 95% mortgage for FTB's, it seems to be some sort of guarantee scheme like HTB but it's light on details.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/06/first-time-buyers-t...

I guess it's a good thing, for FTB's getting onto the so called ladder and for existing owners/sellers as well. It will go some way to help prop up current prices, so those wanting a crash might be disappointed.

The HousePriceCrashers must be going mental. For months they have been calling peak and expecting massive falls and the government once again do everything they can to stop prices falling.

If this comes off then the market will go crazy, suddenly there will be millions of people added to the market who could never have afforded a house otherwise. We will go back to open house inspections and houses going to sealed bids.

In a completely free market economy I'm sure we would see a bit more volatility, but these days we have to factor in governments intervening in markets to try and stabilse prices. With stock/equity markets it seems a given now that in an economic downturn/crisis governments will pump in billions to keep prices inflated, I think we are probably seeing that priced into UK property as well. Sentiment seems to be such that people think prices are only going to go one way, which becomes self-fullfilling, even when faced with an economic hit caused by covid, and Brexit too I imagine.

[number2]

Joey Deacon said:

The HousePriceCrashers must be going mental. For months they have been calling peak and expecting massive falls [snip]

Months? Their lives have been on hold for over a decade waiting for what they think is the right price. Most probably aren't in the market to buy anyway... always waiting for that undefined price signal...

[PrinceRupert]

V6 must be very sad right now.

[anonymous-user]

Joey Deacon said:

The HousePriceCrashers must be going mental. For months they have been calling peak and expecting massive falls and the government once again do everything they can to stop prices falling.

If this comes off then the market will go crazy, suddenly there will be millions of people added to the market who could never have afforded a house otherwise. We will go back to open house inspections and houses going to sealed bids.

This is worrying as I thought exactly the same could happen. Massive recession but house prices stratospheric