How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
number2 said:
I was being tongue in cheek 
.
Housing isn't homogeneous, but we can talk generally, in line with the thread title - there's no nationwide panic/view of house prices falling on the long term. Prices are related to real interest rates. Outside of pockets of oversupply of flats in some areas for example, generally supply isn't a factor in pricing within the realms of reasonableness.
I'm a bit of a broken record but there will be no paradigm shift in long term prices as long as real interest rates are low.
Will there be variability on prices, yes. Will town centre new build flats increase in value over 5 year, maybe not. Will there be an aggregate fall in value of uk housing stock that doesn't recover, without a change in real interest rates. Very unlikely.
.Housing isn't homogeneous, but we can talk generally, in line with the thread title - there's no nationwide panic/view of house prices falling on the long term. Prices are related to real interest rates. Outside of pockets of oversupply of flats in some areas for example, generally supply isn't a factor in pricing within the realms of reasonableness.
I'm a bit of a broken record but there will be no paradigm shift in long term prices as long as real interest rates are low.
Will there be variability on prices, yes. Will town centre new build flats increase in value over 5 year, maybe not. Will there be an aggregate fall in value of uk housing stock that doesn't recover, without a change in real interest rates. Very unlikely.
There is a tangible difference in shorter term price drops however. Agreed the longer term trend is generally up. Although it's taken the "average" London market about 4 years to get back to 2016 values. However that has been heavily skewed by a minority of "developing" areas bringing the numbers up.
I have in my list a property that is only 10% up on 2007, others that were bought in 2018 and prices dropped to what they paid. These are not mass build flats but desirable detached homes.
People often say who cares if house prices drop even 10% over the next 3-12 month.
Well it does when your mortgage drops 100-150k on an expensive property, LTV and interest paid over 25 years makes that very material.
number2 said:
Will there be an aggregate fall in value of uk housing stock that doesn't recover, without a change in real interest rates. Very unlikely.
Particularly as whenever an event such as the credit crunch or Covid19 occur everyone stops selling. Vendors have a price in their heads and if that price isn't achievable they just wont sell.
My mate's a mortgage broker. He's telling me that where we live (Stirlingshire, Central Scotland) and in the current situation there aren't that many buyers around. This is having no effect on house prices as on the other side very few people are selling. The result is the few houses that are selling are selling for big money due to their scarcity.
He mentioned one poor bugger who works away from home, is in the market for a house and who whenever he sees something he likes come on the market on a Monday morning is told "it'll be going to a closing date on Thursday" when he tries to book a Saturday viewing for when he is back at the weekends.
These houses are making way over asking prices and initially one would thing the market is red hot but according to my mate it's actually pretty quiet.
Tannedbaldhead said:
Particularly as whenever an event such as the credit crunch or Covid19 occur everyone stops selling.
Vendors have a price in their heads and if that price isn't achievable they just wont sell.
My mate's a mortgage broker. He's telling me that where we live (Stirlingshire, Central Scotland) and in the current situation there aren't that many buyers around. This is having no effect on house prices as on the other side very few people are selling. The result is the few houses that are selling are selling for big money due to their scarcity.
He mentioned one poor bugger who works away from home, is in the market for a house and who whenever he sees something he likes come on the market on a Monday morning is told "it'll be going to a closing date on Thursday" when he tries to book a Saturday viewing for when he is back at the weekends.
These houses are making way over asking prices and initially one would thing the market is red hot but according to my mate it's actually pretty quiet.
Houses always get sold through death, divorce and debt. Let alone people accepting less for theirs because they are paying less for the property they want. Actually a friend just messaged me about this exact situation a few minutes ago re: London.Vendors have a price in their heads and if that price isn't achievable they just wont sell.
My mate's a mortgage broker. He's telling me that where we live (Stirlingshire, Central Scotland) and in the current situation there aren't that many buyers around. This is having no effect on house prices as on the other side very few people are selling. The result is the few houses that are selling are selling for big money due to their scarcity.
He mentioned one poor bugger who works away from home, is in the market for a house and who whenever he sees something he likes come on the market on a Monday morning is told "it'll be going to a closing date on Thursday" when he tries to book a Saturday viewing for when he is back at the weekends.
These houses are making way over asking prices and initially one would thing the market is red hot but according to my mate it's actually pretty quiet.
Not to say there won't be people who have a price in their head and pull property, totally expected and equally I am seeing sstc coming back to market post survey.
We are moving from a rental at end of this year to follow the garden/driveway and big cut in rental, the landlord is apparently putting the price UP when listing! When all the other rentals in the area are about 25% lower, good luck to the landlord
.. MX-6 said:
marky911 said:
I see the “London property thread” is still going strong.
I think we need to start a new thread to actually discuss the housing market and the rest of country.
I agree that it's quite London-centric, but I guess people post about the market that they know about. We can't complain if non-Londoner's aren't really posting anything to be discussed. I've post about the market in my own town but I can't blame people if they either aren't familar with it or aren't particularly interested. We can all comment on the national picture and it's interesting to do so, but there is so much regional variation that can be less relevant to us individually that the local market conditions.I think we need to start a new thread to actually discuss the housing market and the rest of country.
Edited by MX-6 on Friday 6th November 15:59
wisbech said:
It's just maths. With so many people living in London, there is a higher chance that someone will reply as they also live there/ are interested in property there. If I posted about houseprices in Wisbech (pop c33,000) the chance of it starting a conversation with someone else interested in house prices in Wisbech - much lower.
More people live out of London than in 
wisbech said:
It's just maths. With so many people living in London, there is a higher chance that someone will reply as they also live there/ are interested in property there. If I posted about houseprices in Wisbech (pop c33,000) the chance of it starting a conversation with someone else interested in house prices in Wisbech - much lower.
Yes that's the point I was trying to make.Wisbech is actually an interesting one to me property-wise. I live in Bedfordshire but have browsed houses in the North Cambridgeshire, South Lincolnshire area as it just looks so cheap relatively, had a dream about what I could buy there, quite a lot of nice old period properties for not a lot of money.
Correct me if I'm wrong but Wisbech and the fens area of Cambridgeshire generally does seem a bit in the middle of nowhere and not very affluent, little good paying work around? It's not commutable to where I work in Herts (never mind London), but in a world where people are permanently working from home, North Cambridgeshire may start to look tempting?
Stuff like this looks cheap as chips for example, just quickly picked a couple out but many other examples...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
MX-6 said:
wisbech said:
It's just maths. With so many people living in London, there is a higher chance that someone will reply as they also live there/ are interested in property there. If I posted about houseprices in Wisbech (pop c33,000) the chance of it starting a conversation with someone else interested in house prices in Wisbech - much lower.
Yes that's the point I was trying to make.Wisbech is actually an interesting one to me property-wise. I live in Bedfordshire but have browsed houses in the North Cambridgeshire, South Lincolnshire area as it just looks so cheap relatively, had a dream about what I could buy there, quite a lot of nice old period properties for not a lot of money.
Correct me if I'm wrong but Wisbech and the fens area of Cambridgeshire generally does seem a bit in the middle of nowhere and not very affluent, little good paying work around? It's not commutable to where I work in Herts (never mind London), but in a world where people are permanently working from home, North Cambridgeshire may start to look tempting?
Stuff like this looks cheap as chips for example, just quickly picked a couple out but many other examples...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
t fight to get anywhere, finding a bank that's open on a Saturday can mean a 40 mile/2 hour round trip!And yes that's right, get stuck behind a Sunday driver or tractor up here and you'll be lucky to average 20~25mph.
I was talking to my nephew the other day. He's an estate agent (a degree in drama, so he knows how to lie) in Allerton, South Liverpool.
His prediction. When it's clear thatthere isn't time to get through to completion before the stamp duty holiday disappears, house prices will drop. When the next lot of furlough is over and more mass redundancies happen house prices will drop.
Etc etc.
His prediction. When it's clear thatthere isn't time to get through to completion before the stamp duty holiday disappears, house prices will drop. When the next lot of furlough is over and more mass redundancies happen house prices will drop.
Etc etc.
Shnozz said:
z4RRSchris said:
do the swings in houses prices really matter too much when the property prices are much lower, as the quantum is low?
I do value your input over the years on PH, but that really has to be one of the most stuck up things I have read on here in some time. It's bordering on satirical. andy43 said:
Shnozz said:
z4RRSchris said:
do the swings in houses prices really matter too much when the property prices are much lower, as the quantum is low?
I do value your input over the years on PH, but that really has to be one of the most stuck up things I have read on here in some time. It's bordering on satirical. Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
If Z4RRSchris is referring to quantum in the mid 16th century Latin term, which I think he is, then he is accurate insofar as there is less money about and sales are for less money, so the real terms value swing of an equivalent percentage is pretty insignificant up t'narth.
Insignificant to whom? Not the people that live up there.MX-6 said:
Yes that's the point I was trying to make.
Wisbech is actually an interesting one to me property-wise. I live in Bedfordshire but have browsed houses in the North Cambridgeshire, South Lincolnshire area as it just looks so cheap relatively, had a dream about what I could buy there, quite a lot of nice old period properties for not a lot of money.
Correct me if I'm wrong but Wisbech and the fens area of Cambridgeshire generally does seem a bit in the middle of nowhere and not very affluent, little good paying work around? It's not commutable to where I work in Herts (never mind London), but in a world where people are permanently working from home, North Cambridgeshire may start to look tempting?
Stuff like this looks cheap as chips for example, just quickly picked a couple out but many other examples...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
Yep, it is one of the most rural & deprived areas of England. I've a soft spot for it, as it is 'home', but... Wisbech is actually an interesting one to me property-wise. I live in Bedfordshire but have browsed houses in the North Cambridgeshire, South Lincolnshire area as it just looks so cheap relatively, had a dream about what I could buy there, quite a lot of nice old period properties for not a lot of money.
Correct me if I'm wrong but Wisbech and the fens area of Cambridgeshire generally does seem a bit in the middle of nowhere and not very affluent, little good paying work around? It's not commutable to where I work in Herts (never mind London), but in a world where people are permanently working from home, North Cambridgeshire may start to look tempting?
Stuff like this looks cheap as chips for example, just quickly picked a couple out but many other examples...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
One of my favourite anecdotes - I was getting my eyes checked. The optician said 'well, the good news is that now you are 16 and working in the fields, your eyes won't get any worse'. He was surprised that I told him I was doing A levels. Now 1/4 to 1/3 eastern european, working in the fields and canning factories.
The reason why it has wonderful georgian property is that is the last time it wasn't poor, and since then there has been little or no redevelopment. The town was screwed by the biggest landowner refusing to allow a railway in the 19th century, and then again by the local council refusing a modern shopping centre in the 1960's. So King's Lynn took over as the regional centre for the Fens.
wisbech said:
Yep, it is one of the most rural & deprived areas of England. I've a soft spot for it, as it is 'home', but...
One of my favourite anecdotes - I was getting my eyes checked. The optician said 'well, the good news is that now you are 16 and working in the fields, your eyes won't get any worse'. He was surprised that I told him I was doing A levels. Now 1/4 to 1/3 eastern european, working in the fields and canning factories.
The reason why it has wonderful georgian property is that is the last time it wasn't poor, and since then there has been little or no redevelopment. The town was screwed by the biggest landowner refusing to allow a railway in the 19th century, and then again by the local council refusing a modern shopping centre in the 1960's. So King's Lynn took over as the regional centre for the Fens.
Not knowing the area I didn't comment, but you have confirmed what I thought. It looks expensive *to me* based on being in an undesirable location, poor transport links, and I would want a lot spent on it. One of my favourite anecdotes - I was getting my eyes checked. The optician said 'well, the good news is that now you are 16 and working in the fields, your eyes won't get any worse'. He was surprised that I told him I was doing A levels. Now 1/4 to 1/3 eastern european, working in the fields and canning factories.
The reason why it has wonderful georgian property is that is the last time it wasn't poor, and since then there has been little or no redevelopment. The town was screwed by the biggest landowner refusing to allow a railway in the 19th century, and then again by the local council refusing a modern shopping centre in the 1960's. So King's Lynn took over as the regional centre for the Fens.
How quickly does a place like that sell at that price point? Is the market people that already live around there?
number2 said:
Not knowing the area I didn't comment, but you have confirmed what I thought. It looks expensive *to me* based on being in an undesirable location, poor transport links, and I would want a lot spent on it.
How quickly does a place like that sell at that price point? Is the market people that already live around there?
A lot gets bought up for HMO (legally or illegally) for the transient farm/ factory workers. Population has increased a fair bit over the last 20 years, but housing stock hasn't...How quickly does a place like that sell at that price point? Is the market people that already live around there?
To add a non London story, we bought our first house, a stone 2 bed terraced cottage in North Wales for £150k in March. Ours was one of the last transactions to go through before our solicitors closed their office doors for the lockdown.
Our sellers were forced to move into one of their parents houses down the road 'for a month or two' as their purchase was delayed for some reason and our mortgage offer was expiring and not guaranteed to be extended any longer due to Covid.
Their deal fell through in the end and the house they were buying has been relisted with a 10% increase. They're still stuck in the parents house to this day as I pass it on my way out of the village. I feel for them as we negotiated 10% off the asking price for some faults they weren't aware of till our survey, they had to pay a hefty ERC on their mortgage with no property to port it to and now they're presumably stuck with their folks, with the standard of house they were hoping to upgrade to now out of reach due to a combination of rising prices and tightening lending restrictions.
From a personal point of view I'm pleased we got the keys when we did, it looks like we got one of the very last 95% LTV mortgages and if we hadn't got the purchase across the line before covid really took hold, chances are we'd have had to give up house hunting and work on quadrupling our deposit, while joining the rather large group of hopefuls waiting for a price crash in what is looking like a game that has been rigged from the start.
Our sellers were forced to move into one of their parents houses down the road 'for a month or two' as their purchase was delayed for some reason and our mortgage offer was expiring and not guaranteed to be extended any longer due to Covid.
Their deal fell through in the end and the house they were buying has been relisted with a 10% increase. They're still stuck in the parents house to this day as I pass it on my way out of the village. I feel for them as we negotiated 10% off the asking price for some faults they weren't aware of till our survey, they had to pay a hefty ERC on their mortgage with no property to port it to and now they're presumably stuck with their folks, with the standard of house they were hoping to upgrade to now out of reach due to a combination of rising prices and tightening lending restrictions.
From a personal point of view I'm pleased we got the keys when we did, it looks like we got one of the very last 95% LTV mortgages and if we hadn't got the purchase across the line before covid really took hold, chances are we'd have had to give up house hunting and work on quadrupling our deposit, while joining the rather large group of hopefuls waiting for a price crash in what is looking like a game that has been rigged from the start.
More SE London questions from me! 
Any opinions on this house and the area? I can't seem to find anything too dodgy, except the fact that the interior needs loads of upgrading!
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
It is quite close to Petts Wood St., that would be a big win for me...
Cheers gents!
Any opinions on this house and the area? I can't seem to find anything too dodgy, except the fact that the interior needs loads of upgrading!
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
It is quite close to Petts Wood St., that would be a big win for me...
Cheers gents!
ooid said:
More SE London questions from me!
Any opinions on this house and the area? I can't seem to find anything too dodgy, except the fact that the interior needs loads of upgrading!
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
It is quite close to Petts Wood St., that would be a big win for me...
Cheers gents!
Bickley is a nice area. Looks a good value house IMO. Any opinions on this house and the area? I can't seem to find anything too dodgy, except the fact that the interior needs loads of upgrading!
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
It is quite close to Petts Wood St., that would be a big win for me...
Cheers gents!
ooid said:
More SE London questions from me!
Any opinions on this house and the area? I can't seem to find anything too dodgy, except the fact that the interior needs loads of upgrading!
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
It is quite close to Petts Wood St., that would be a big win for me...
Cheers gents!
Chalet??Any opinions on this house and the area? I can't seem to find anything too dodgy, except the fact that the interior needs loads of upgrading!
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
It is quite close to Petts Wood St., that would be a big win for me...
Cheers gents!
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