How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
V6Alfisti said:
Carl_Manchester said:
2020 - When you spend £650k and you still wake up in Leytonstone.
I did wonder if there would be a move by buyers to forgo living in a smaller terraced house and go and get something detached with land out in essex or herts but as far as I can see there is still good demand to live here, along with the surrounding area.
Interesting article on BBG today
London Apartment Prices Sink by 40,000 Pounds, New Survey Shows
London apartment values are falling as first-time buyers struggle to get mortgages and existing homeowners prioritize bigger houses with more outdoor space.
The average price of an apartment in the U.K. capital plummeted by 40,000 pounds ($53,000) over the year through September. Central districts, such as the City of Westminster and City of London, are seeing declines in values because they have a higher percentage of those homes, according to a report on Tuesday by chartered surveyors E.Surv.
Homeowners have taken advantage of the temporary suspension in the stamp duty sales tax to move home, creating a two-tier market. Rising sales of luxury properties boosted the average home price in London by 7.3% to 646,614 pounds in September from a year earlier. That number has also been skewed by fewer transactions at the bottom end of the market after lenders demanded higher down payments from those purchasing their first home.
The current surge in values “won’t last because what’s going to start to kick in, regardless of the stamp duty holiday, are forced sales as furloughing ends and redundancies grow,” said Yolande Barnes, a researcher at University College London. “Given that it really does not look rosy you would expect the demand for housing has to fall.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-11...
London Apartment Prices Sink by 40,000 Pounds, New Survey Shows
London apartment values are falling as first-time buyers struggle to get mortgages and existing homeowners prioritize bigger houses with more outdoor space.
The average price of an apartment in the U.K. capital plummeted by 40,000 pounds ($53,000) over the year through September. Central districts, such as the City of Westminster and City of London, are seeing declines in values because they have a higher percentage of those homes, according to a report on Tuesday by chartered surveyors E.Surv.
Homeowners have taken advantage of the temporary suspension in the stamp duty sales tax to move home, creating a two-tier market. Rising sales of luxury properties boosted the average home price in London by 7.3% to 646,614 pounds in September from a year earlier. That number has also been skewed by fewer transactions at the bottom end of the market after lenders demanded higher down payments from those purchasing their first home.
The current surge in values “won’t last because what’s going to start to kick in, regardless of the stamp duty holiday, are forced sales as furloughing ends and redundancies grow,” said Yolande Barnes, a researcher at University College London. “Given that it really does not look rosy you would expect the demand for housing has to fall.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-11...
RICS is out today. As expected nationwide picture is "modestly positive" whilst London = negative sentiment.
https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/med...
- Nationwide strength in enquiries, sales, new instructions and prices
- Near term sales expectations = modestly positive
- twelve-month sales outlook sentiment is a lot more subdued in comparison
London specifically
- Negative 55% (RICS Sentiment rating, not actual £) for lettings
- Negative 20% (RICS Sentiment rating, not actual £) for sales in next 3 months
Estate Agents/Surveyors comments re: SE/London. There are of course more positive comments but it does seem the majority relects the below quotes and no doubt why the RICS sentiment value is negative.
None of this will be a surprise.
- Lack of certainty over funding - mortgage offers falling through.
- We have been very busy up to the end of October. However, the number of valuations being requested is diminishing
- The lenders have slowed the market by increasing the deposits required
- Another lockdown, but ending on December 2nd. It could be extended. We don’t know what effect this will have on the residential property market, but coupled with emloyment concerns, a negative effect would seem likely, certainly if the restrictions are prolonged.
- Prior to this second lockdown the market was already slowing
- Transaction levels started off the month on a high and ended rather subdued. Whether mortgage valuations or lockdown contributed is the question but purchasers have been spooked.
- What appeared to be an active start to the month has slowed while the market assesses the immediate future. Reductions are being sought
throughout resulting in a delicate balance with most vendors resisting leading to a slowdown in sales
- Terrible market - too many flats that are empty and not selling in central London.
https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/med...
- Nationwide strength in enquiries, sales, new instructions and prices
- Near term sales expectations = modestly positive
- twelve-month sales outlook sentiment is a lot more subdued in comparison
London specifically
- Negative 55% (RICS Sentiment rating, not actual £) for lettings
- Negative 20% (RICS Sentiment rating, not actual £) for sales in next 3 months
Estate Agents/Surveyors comments re: SE/London. There are of course more positive comments but it does seem the majority relects the below quotes and no doubt why the RICS sentiment value is negative.
None of this will be a surprise.
- Lack of certainty over funding - mortgage offers falling through.
- We have been very busy up to the end of October. However, the number of valuations being requested is diminishing
- The lenders have slowed the market by increasing the deposits required
- Another lockdown, but ending on December 2nd. It could be extended. We don’t know what effect this will have on the residential property market, but coupled with emloyment concerns, a negative effect would seem likely, certainly if the restrictions are prolonged.
- Prior to this second lockdown the market was already slowing
- Transaction levels started off the month on a high and ended rather subdued. Whether mortgage valuations or lockdown contributed is the question but purchasers have been spooked.
- What appeared to be an active start to the month has slowed while the market assesses the immediate future. Reductions are being sought
throughout resulting in a delicate balance with most vendors resisting leading to a slowdown in sales
- Terrible market - too many flats that are empty and not selling in central London.
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
Pretty sure the market always drops of a cliff going into the Christmas period.
Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
Hoping for early December here. If it slips too much will try to push into Jan rather than completing too close to Christmas.Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
Obviously depends on whether it's legal to see family and so on...
V6Alfisti said:
RICS is out today. As expected nationwide picture is "modestly positive" whilst London = negative sentiment.
https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/med...
Wales is having an absolute blinder according to that! Mostlyhttps://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/med...
NickCQ said:
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
Pretty sure the market always drops of a cliff going into the Christmas period.
Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
Hoping for early December here. If it slips too much will try to push into Jan rather than completing too close to Christmas.Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
Obviously depends on whether it's legal to see family and so on...
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
NickCQ said:
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
Pretty sure the market always drops of a cliff going into the Christmas period.
Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
Hoping for early December here. If it slips too much will try to push into Jan rather than completing too close to Christmas.Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
Obviously depends on whether it's legal to see family and so on...
I moved last year and it took over six months, I feel like the standard of conveyancing these days is quite poor even prior to covid, hopefully it goes smoothly for you. I could well see lazy conveyancers blaming covid for everything though.
wisbech said:
MX-6 said:
Yes that's the point I was trying to make.
Wisbech is actually an interesting one to me property-wise. I live in Bedfordshire but have browsed houses in the North Cambridgeshire, South Lincolnshire area as it just looks so cheap relatively, had a dream about what I could buy there, quite a lot of nice old period properties for not a lot of money.
Correct me if I'm wrong but Wisbech and the fens area of Cambridgeshire generally does seem a bit in the middle of nowhere and not very affluent, little good paying work around? It's not commutable to where I work in Herts (never mind London), but in a world where people are permanently working from home, North Cambridgeshire may start to look tempting?
Stuff like this looks cheap as chips for example, just quickly picked a couple out but many other examples...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
Yep, it is one of the most rural & deprived areas of England. I've a soft spot for it, as it is 'home', but... Wisbech is actually an interesting one to me property-wise. I live in Bedfordshire but have browsed houses in the North Cambridgeshire, South Lincolnshire area as it just looks so cheap relatively, had a dream about what I could buy there, quite a lot of nice old period properties for not a lot of money.
Correct me if I'm wrong but Wisbech and the fens area of Cambridgeshire generally does seem a bit in the middle of nowhere and not very affluent, little good paying work around? It's not commutable to where I work in Herts (never mind London), but in a world where people are permanently working from home, North Cambridgeshire may start to look tempting?
Stuff like this looks cheap as chips for example, just quickly picked a couple out but many other examples...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
One of my favourite anecdotes - I was getting my eyes checked. The optician said 'well, the good news is that now you are 16 and working in the fields, your eyes won't get any worse'. He was surprised that I told him I was doing A levels. Now 1/4 to 1/3 eastern european, working in the fields and canning factories.
The reason why it has wonderful georgian property is that is the last time it wasn't poor, and since then there has been little or no redevelopment. The town was screwed by the biggest landowner refusing to allow a railway in the 19th century, and then again by the local council refusing a modern shopping centre in the 1960's. So King's Lynn took over as the regional centre for the Fens.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2011/may/14/lets...
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
Pretty sure the market always drops of a cliff going into the Christmas period.
Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
Nope, thats our date too! Fingers crossed, it took 6 weeks to get our Mortgage offer through due purely to the backlog though.Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
(Irony - the companies offering the best mortgage deals, are the ones with the biggest backlog of work).
House is a new build and our buyer has no further chain, so I'm not TOO worried yet.
Its not like we will be allowed to do anything else over Christmas anyway, is it!?
My valuation has just come back with a £5k retention due to 'high damp' identified.... I've contacted some local 'damp specialist' firms and settled for the least snake oily one and requested a survey, and made it very clear I do not believe in chemical dpc injection. Doomed I am..
This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
Edited by Bullet-Proof_Biscuit on Saturday 14th November 09:41
I’m also due to complete over Xmas, albeit on a BTL flat in Liverpool. I’m thinking of delaying into the new year given there are already three flats in the block for rent on RM and also worthy of consideration is the fact the Govt may extend the eviction rules past March. This plus Covid has made me a little jittery and think about lowering my offer a little, and if he says do one I’d almost feel relieved.Strange times!
Edited by metrofour on Saturday 14th November 09:08
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
My valuation has just come back with a £5k retention due to 'high damp' identified.... I've contacted some local 'damp specialist' firms and settled for the least snake oily one and requested a survey, and made it very clear I do no believe in chemical dpc injection. Doomed I am..
This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
How can you “not believe in chemical dpc injection”?This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
It’s not a new deity!
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
My valuation has just come back with a £5k retention due to 'high damp' identified.... I've contacted some local 'damp specialist' firms and settled for the least snake oily one and requested a survey, and made it very clear I do no believe in chemical dpc injection. Doomed I am..
This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
Was it priced in already? I mean was it visible when you viewed the property? If not, ask for 5k reduction on the house, it is pretty fair situation.This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
loafer123 said:
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
My valuation has just come back with a £5k retention due to 'high damp' identified.... I've contacted some local 'damp specialist' firms and settled for the least snake oily one and requested a survey, and made it very clear I do no believe in chemical dpc injection. Doomed I am..
This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
How can you “not believe in chemical dpc injection”?This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
It’s not a new deity!
ooid said:
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
My valuation has just come back with a £5k retention due to 'high damp' identified.... I've contacted some local 'damp specialist' firms and settled for the least snake oily one and requested a survey, and made it very clear I do no believe in chemical dpc injection. Doomed I am..
This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
Was it priced in already? I mean was it visible when you viewed the property? If not, ask for 5k reduction on the house, it is pretty fair situation.This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
loafer123 said:
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
My valuation has just come back with a £5k retention due to 'high damp' identified.... I've contacted some local 'damp specialist' firms and settled for the least snake oily one and requested a survey, and made it very clear I do no believe in chemical dpc injection. Doomed I am..
This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
How can you “not believe in chemical dpc injection”?This is Nationwide, at least the valuation was within 2 weeks of mortgage app.
It’s not a new deity!
snotrag said:
Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:
Pretty sure the market always drops of a cliff going into the Christmas period.
Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
Nope, thats our date too! Fingers crossed, it took 6 weeks to get our Mortgage offer through due purely to the backlog though.Only mugs like me have an anticipated completion date of December 21st..
(Irony - the companies offering the best mortgage deals, are the ones with the biggest backlog of work).
House is a new build and our buyer has no further chain, so I'm not TOO worried yet.
Its not like we will be allowed to do anything else over Christmas anyway, is it!?
Already exchanged.I might join the christmas completion gang too. My property is currently under offer. It had 4 viewings in total, and got two offers in the first week of putting in the market. Does not look so bad so far but I would never trust anything until the completion, seen enough of shockers in this weird housing market over the years.. lol
ooid said:
I might join the christmas completion gang too. My property is currently under offer.
Well done for getting your house sold, but brace yourself for a possible January completion date. We sold our place a couple of months ago, and still haven't exchanged yet, despite having a simple chain of four parties. Mortgage approvals are taking a lot longer than usual, surveyors are fully booked up, and Land Registry staff are swamped.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff