How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[kingston12]

stuckmojo said:

2021 will be interesting. I was comfortable moving in the summer but the numbers don't stack up anymore at the moment.

I haven’t seen much further talk about the state-backed mortgages that Boris proposed earlier in the year.

This must be the next leg of housing market support. I know it was originally designed to reduce deposits, but it could effectively be used to bring rates down as well if the lenders aren’t ‘playing ball’.

Either way, I can’t see 2021 being the year that the government stops supporting house prices, but I’ve been very wrong on this before!

[mwstewart]

kingston12 said:

I’m still surprised that they didn’t announce an extension a couple of months ago.

It has clearly ‘worked’ in that it has further supported house prices through what would otherwise have been a very difficult time, so why stop it now?

It would be understandable if it was part of a standard ‘green shoots’ recovery message, but we are a long way from that at the moment.

Anyone who is looking to move now will surely feel just as penalised that they have to pay an extra £15k in tax compared to those about to complete?

It still feels early to me as well. I understand that there is some lobbying in the background but I think some consideration should be given to allowing in-flight transactions to complete.

Another thing that I noticed was how swiftly the government responded negatively to https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/550545

[Helicopter123]

Joey Deacon said:

BMW A6 said:

So an average annual 7.5% price growth, represents an average >£18,000 price increase for an averagely priced £250,000 property.

For those diligent first time buyers, having to find another £18,000 seems madness.

Plus potentially the stamp duty if the holiday is not extended.

This is the situation the posters on HousePriceCrash don't seem to grasp, they are too afraid to buy just incase the prophecy is correct and prices crash. So they continue to waste money on rent while the amount they need to buy a property is increasing year on year. As the prices increase, they are less and less likely to buy.

They are currently going on about 15% reductions, so the price from two or three years ago when you wouldn't buy because prices were too high and about to crash.

We bought in August this year, the house opposite has just gone on for 13.5% more than we paid and needs fully renovating inside. Effectively we now cannot afford to live where we do, and we certainly could not afford to do the work it requires.

Yet the HousePriceCrash loonies go on about the idiots that have bought property while they continue to rent.

Over the long-term, you always want to own real assets, like property.

Waiting a few months to find the right property I can understand, but waiting years, watching properties slip out of reach, or friends and family build equity while you rent? I know some will need to rent because they move around with work, or through choice, but otherwise? Property is a life long investment, when you buy doesn't make much difference, the key is to get on the ladder.

[Rob_125]

kingston12 said:

mwstewart said:

The government have issued a letter to all solicitors requesting that a pre and post holiday stamp duty figure is provided to the buyer, and the the solicitor must reinforce that that the buyer is liable for the higher amount if completion is after the 31st.

Make of that what you will.

I’m still surprised that they didn’t announce an extension a couple of months ago.

It has clearly ‘worked’ in that it has further supported house prices through what would otherwise have been a very difficult time, so why stop it now?

It would be understandable if it was part of a standard ‘green shoots’ recovery message, but we are a long way from that at the moment.

Anyone who is looking to move now will surely feel just as penalised that they have to pay an extra £15k in tax compared to those about to complete?

Surely if you are capable of buying a house, one should be capable of understanding a tax cut off. And should either make proviso for a potential tax or make your offer with this in consideration. If you are that retarded to not understand this basic concept then you shouldn't be buying....although in the coming weeks I reckon there will be a few relistings of properties!

[mwstewart]

Rob_125 said:

Surely if you are capable of buying a house, one should be capable of understanding a tax cut off. And should either make proviso for a potential tax or make your offer with this in consideration. If you are that retarded to not understand this basic concept then you shouldn't be buying....although in the coming weeks I reckon there will be a few relistings of properties!

If only life was that simple.

[MG CHRIS]

A.J.M said:

I got approval for my mortgage on the 23rd.
Like MG Chris, it’s a 35 year deal, but at 3.19 instead of his 2.30.

We got a bit of help from our folks to fill in the gap between our deposits and the final bit needed.
Keys collection is 12th February so have time to sort everything else and get looking for furniture etc.

A little later onto the ladder than I would have liked but I didn’t meet the one till later than I would have liked..

The good news is now I can change jobs now we have the approval. So once we get out of Nippys Tier 4 then I can hopefully get that rolling.

Great news mine was 2.5% tsb was the lowest by a big margin. Already started on the home improvements bedroom is almost finished. I never realised what such a drawn out process the whole thing is the mortgage application went through quick but my god did the surveys, solicitors etc drew the last 3 months out.
I would have liked to have a shorter term but as im on my own thought it was best to go lowest monthly figure just to see out the first few years.
It was the best feeling when you final can pick the keys up and open the door and go this is mine. Its been one of the very few good points of this year. The 17k for the deposit and all the fees was a bit of a kick to see that vanish from my account though.

Good luck and hope it all goes well and you can get the keys in feb.

[MG CHRIS]

Joey Deacon said:

BMW A6 said:

So an average annual 7.5% price growth, represents an average >£18,000 price increase for an averagely priced £250,000 property.

For those diligent first time buyers, having to find another £18,000 seems madness.

Plus potentially the stamp duty if the holiday is not extended.

This is the situation the posters on HousePriceCrash don't seem to grasp, they are too afraid to buy just incase the prophecy is correct and prices crash. So they continue to waste money on rent while the amount they need to buy a property is increasing year on year. As the prices increase, they are less and less likely to buy.

They are currently going on about 15% reductions, so the price from two or three years ago when you wouldn't buy because prices were too high and about to crash.

We bought in August this year, the house opposite has just gone on for 13.5% more than we paid and needs fully renovating inside. Effectively we now cannot afford to live where we do, and we certainly could not afford to do the work it requires.

Yet the HousePriceCrash loonies go on about the idiots that have bought property while they continue to rent.

One of the girls in work has this mentality thinking there will be a big crash she has the money waiting but refusing to buy my thinking was my job is secure as much as a job can be secure. Im in a trade where we are in demand so the likelihood of being out of work long is very low so best to get in now before more hurdles are put in the way with lending restrictions or increases of interest rate etc.
Where I bought my house prices have increased on average 20k over the last 5 years as other areas around are getting more expensive people are looking in other locations so cant see it reversing to the extent I be in a problem with it.

[stuckmojo]

35 years!!! FFS.

[BMW A6]

stuckmojo said:

35 years!!! FFS.

You can get a cream for that.
Or a suppository.

[princeperch]

MG CHRIS said:

Joey Deacon said:

BMW A6 said:

So an average annual 7.5% price growth, represents an average >£18,000 price increase for an averagely priced £250,000 property.

For those diligent first time buyers, having to find another £18,000 seems madness.

Plus potentially the stamp duty if the holiday is not extended.

This is the situation the posters on HousePriceCrash don't seem to grasp, they are too afraid to buy just incase the prophecy is correct and prices crash. So they continue to waste money on rent while the amount they need to buy a property is increasing year on year. As the prices increase, they are less and less likely to buy.

They are currently going on about 15% reductions, so the price from two or three years ago when you wouldn't buy because prices were too high and about to crash.

We bought in August this year, the house opposite has just gone on for 13.5% more than we paid and needs fully renovating inside. Effectively we now cannot afford to live where we do, and we certainly could not afford to do the work it requires.

Yet the HousePriceCrash loonies go on about the idiots that have bought property while they continue to rent.

One of the girls in work has this mentality thinking there will be a big crash she has the money waiting but refusing to buy my thinking was my job is secure as much as a job can be secure. Im in a trade where we are in demand so the likelihood of being out of work long is very low so best to get in now before more hurdles are put in the way with lending restrictions or increases of interest rate etc.
Where I bought my house prices have increased on average 20k over the last 5 years as other areas around are getting more expensive people are looking in other locations so cant see it reversing to the extent I be in a problem with it.

I thought I had tapped out a post on this earlier but maybe I didn't.

Reading house price crash basically is a self fulfilling prophecy. If you spend any amount of time on there they'll convince you the sky will cave in and you'll be able to buy a 4 bed house on upper street next year for 80 grand.

There are more risks, as a first time buyer, staying out of the market these days rather than staying out in my view.

I was in this position in 2011: renting a nice 1 bed in hackney for a grand a month with my Doris, which was cheap. But it still felt like a waste. So we looked at buying an equivalent flat, which was at that time, about 250k.

We ended up buying a one bed for 250k, the service charge and the rent was 1700 or so a month. Which felt like a lot at the time. The interest rate was 6.09pc because the flat wasn't all that old and we only had a ten pc deposit. We didn't pay any stamp duty . There was a fairly high chance the flat could have tanked ten percent in a year and that would have been my deposit gone overnight.

Obviously we didn't want to stay in a one bed flat forever and as luck happened, we sold it 3 years later for 435k after having done nothing to it. If I'd listened to the hpc group, (and a couple of posters on here -one bloke called Stefan I think told me I was nuts for buying In 2011 and I'd lose my shirt) I'd have missed out on a 180k odd capital gain by leveraging 25k.

[MuscleSedan]

Some still seem to think that there's hope of an extension of the Stamp Duty Holiday but that looks very unlikely.

“ As the relief was to provide an immediate stimulus to the property market, the government does not plan to extend this relief. SDLT is an important source of government revenue, raising several billion pounds each year to help pay for the essential services the government provides "

As we head through 2021 surely some of the money put out there in 2020 will have to at least start to be recovered somehow ?

[Burwood]

BMW A6 said:

So an average annual 7.5% price growth, represents an average >£18,000 price increase for an averagely priced £250,000 property.

For those diligent first time buyers, having to find another £18,000 seems madness.

Where does that math come from and housing has never been so affordable

[Algarve]

You can't reason with those house crash people at all.

They dig themselves so far in they can't admit they were wrong.

If they give up and buy a house at more than they could have before they started all the doomsday hoping, they'll need to admit they were wrong.

If they don't buy they can just stick with the party line of they're right and its just not happened, yet.

I feel a bit sorry for them really. Once you've been in the crash gang for 5+ years there's not a hope in hell they're ever going to be right now. A lot of these people are now destined to never own anything at all due to their stubbornness and ignorance.

[STURBO]

Algarve said:

You can't reason with those house crash people at all.

They dig themselves so far in they can't admit they were wrong.

If they give up and buy a house at more than they could have before they started all the doomsday hoping, they'll need to admit they were wrong.

If they don't buy they can just stick with the party line of they're right and its just not happened, yet.

I feel a bit sorry for them really.

I'm one of the house price crash forecasters.

But I hedged my bets by buying 2 houses. Phew.

[A.J.M]

MG CHRIS said:

A.J.M said:

I got approval for my mortgage on the 23rd.
Like MG Chris, it’s a 35 year deal, but at 3.19 instead of his 2.30.

We got a bit of help from our folks to fill in the gap between our deposits and the final bit needed.
Keys collection is 12th February so have time to sort everything else and get looking for furniture etc.

A little later onto the ladder than I would have liked but I didn’t meet the one till later than I would have liked..

The good news is now I can change jobs now we have the approval. So once we get out of Nippys Tier 4 then I can hopefully get that rolling.

Great news mine was 2.5% tsb was the lowest by a big margin. Already started on the home improvements bedroom is almost finished. I never realised what such a drawn out process the whole thing is the mortgage application went through quick but my god did the surveys, solicitors etc drew the last 3 months out.
I would have liked to have a shorter term but as im on my own thought it was best to go lowest monthly figure just to see out the first few years.
It was the best feeling when you final can pick the keys up and open the door and go this is mine. Its been one of the very few good points of this year. The 17k for the deposit and all the fees was a bit of a kick to see that vanish from my account though.

Good luck and hope it all goes well and you can get the keys in feb.

Ours has been from 9th November, it’s been rather quick at getting more or less sorted.
Still need to sign for the house etc but everything else is hopefully in place for it. Barclays was the cheapest for us.

21k deposit was a sore one to find given 1 year ago it would have been 14k.

We went for 35 to get lower payments but it’s still over £450 a month, the weak link in the chain was me, my job isn’t well paying and she’s self employed so when I can change it will make thing a lot more comfortable.

But, it’s a cracking 3 bed semi detached, quiet area, retired couples for neighbours and a long drive for my land rovers..

[Shnozz]

Algarve said:

You can't reason with those house crash people at all.

They dig themselves so far in they can't admit they were wrong.

If they give up and buy a house at more than they could have before they started all the doomsday hoping, they'll need to admit they were wrong.

If they don't buy they can just stick with the party line of they're right and its just not happened, yet.

I feel a bit sorry for them really. Once you've been in the crash gang for 5+ years there's not a hope in hell they're ever going to be right now. A lot of these people are now destined to never own anything at all due to their stubbornness and ignorance.

I think ignorance is harsh. I don’t think many could have foreseen the measures that the government introduced over the last decade to protect house prices at all costs seemingly. Furthermore, the ingenuity that the financial services sector has created and flexed products to allow previously unsustainable borrowing to be maintained.

It’s clearly no longer a free market and had it been I very much doubt this one way bet would have been so one sided.

[stuckmojo]

STURBO said:

I'm one of the house price crash forecasters.

But I hedged my bets by buying 2 houses. Phew.

Me too.

[stuckmojo]

Shnozz said:

I think ignorance is harsh. I don’t think many could have foreseen the measures that the government introduced over the last decade to protect house prices at all costs seemingly. Furthermore, the ingenuity that the financial services sector has created and flexed products to allow previously unsustainable borrowing to be maintained.

It’s clearly no longer a free market and had it been I very much doubt this one way bet would have been so one sided.

Yes. And as above, 35 years mortgages. This is it until retirement. Longer for more.

[Helicopter123]

stuckmojo said:

Yes. And as above, 35 years mortgages. This is it until retirement. Longer for more.

When does paying rent stop please?

[stuckmojo]

Helicopter123 said:

When does paying rent stop please?

Silly logic. The point is until a couple of years back this level of indebtedness wasn't required.