Jeremy Corbyn (Vol. 3)
Discussion
Gargamel said:
Had a certain Tony Blair allowed a referendum on the Yraty of Lisbon instead of signing it in a back room out of sight of the cameras and then running away, Farage and UKIP would be a distant dream.
The Irish won concessions when they rebelled on Lisbon, the UK May have been able to do similar
It was the shambles of Lisbon that led to a need to have a referendum.
Lisbon? It started long before then with Major and the Maastricht Treaty. The Irish won concessions when they rebelled on Lisbon, the UK May have been able to do similar
It was the shambles of Lisbon that led to a need to have a referendum.
Again, had we had a referendum on it we could (like the Danes) had got concessions....and even if we hadn't rejected it, we would have agreed to being in the EU (as different to the EEC).
Maastricht was what triggered Farage and UKIP was founded to oppose it (as was also the Referendum party).
Balmoral said:
Happy to concede.
But the overall plan has always been there...
Runs away quickly...
But the overall plan has always been there...
Runs away quickly...
You may well be correct, The problem was however that if some in the government/country actually knew what the `plan' was, then they had a duty at the time to let the public know fully what voting to remain in the 1975 EEC referendum would lead to. Slimeball Heath undoubtedly knew what the `plan' was, but he actually had information on the `plan' kept as quiet as possible from the public, because he was desperate to keep the UK in the EEC, after first having taken the UK into it without the consent either way of the British people. He knew that if details of the `plan' were made fully available to the general public, the overwhelming vote in 1975 would have been to leave the EEC. In 1975 there were no tv debates on the matter, no televised debates in the HoC and HoL , No internet, no numerous news channels, no numerous papers covering what staying in the EEC would lead to, on which the public could base a decision on, not even legal challenges from members of the public.
In 2016 however the people of the UK, had huge quantities of information on the EU, not least from over 4 decades of actual experience of the EU on which to base their decision to remain or leave the EU.
A much better informed public in 2016 voted to leave the EU in the first and only vote they had ever been given on whether or not they wanted the UK to leave or remain in the EU, after having been slimed into it without their consent in the first place.
Even in this situation there seem to be some who do not respect democracy, and who have done their best to ignore, subvert, delay or otherwise overturn the democratic vote of 2016, and even now after Article 50 has been triggered, are still trying to subvert the will of the majority, because the 2016 result was not the one they expected/wanted. Quite disgusting really.
Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Sunday 20th January 13:27
amgmcqueen said:
I don't think the media are doing a very good job of making people realise just how dangerous and damaging a Corbyn government would be.
Mcdonnells tax reforms would decimate the Country, especially small businesses.
I have commented several times that the UK might not survive another labour government, and that was with the previous disastrous labour PM`s, Heaven only knows how quickly a Corbyn labour government would destroy the UK.Mcdonnells tax reforms would decimate the Country, especially small businesses.
The thing that amuses me in a morbid sort of way, is that watching the labour government criticizing the tory government (Who I must confess I don't think that much of either) is like watching the arsonist who has set fire to a building criticizing the fire brigade, for the water damage caused by the hoses they used to put out the fire.
I think its becoming more and more unlikely that a Labour Government will get anywhere near the levers of power judging from the political programmes today.
First of all we had the Marr programme and in particular the Kier Starmer interview. That guy couldnt lie straight in bed. Prevarication and weasel words a plenty. In short Labour will be going for no Brexit or a Remainers Refrerendum.
Then there was the local Midlands politics programme with Jess Phillips my most favourite fake brummie and the Conservative MP for South Dudley.
Jess "fake brummie" Phillips looked quite frankly ill and depressed.
Despite coming from a Leave voting seat she is advocating a second remainers refrendum
" I must do what I beleive is right for my constituents, I'm thinking about JLR and its workers. I dont care if I get re-elected or not". When the Conservative MP pointed out that the CEO of JLR had written to all local MP's telling them to vote for May's deal for the best future for the company and she hadn't, it was like being knifed by Paddington Bear. From the front. Right in the stomach.
She looked sick and muttered under her breath sulkily "Wouldn't have made much difference!"
Bob Edwards, the ever helpful presenter, then added insult to injury when he stated that in polling "just in" if Labour went with either a Referendum or No Brexit they would lose 30% of their voters who would definitely vote for another party.
I then realised the dilemma poor fake Jessie is in.
She is anti Corbyn so Momentum is after her.
She is a "Remainer MP" in a strong Leaver seat so the local population are after her.
She is squeezed between two huge forces and Corbyn put her there. Will she survive as an MP? Perhaps thats why she has lost lots of weight and looks so ill and depressed.
It's the perfect storm, no doubt repeated in many, many Labour constituencies across the land.
Cheers,
Tony
First of all we had the Marr programme and in particular the Kier Starmer interview. That guy couldnt lie straight in bed. Prevarication and weasel words a plenty. In short Labour will be going for no Brexit or a Remainers Refrerendum.
Then there was the local Midlands politics programme with Jess Phillips my most favourite fake brummie and the Conservative MP for South Dudley.
Jess "fake brummie" Phillips looked quite frankly ill and depressed.
Despite coming from a Leave voting seat she is advocating a second remainers refrendum
" I must do what I beleive is right for my constituents, I'm thinking about JLR and its workers. I dont care if I get re-elected or not". When the Conservative MP pointed out that the CEO of JLR had written to all local MP's telling them to vote for May's deal for the best future for the company and she hadn't, it was like being knifed by Paddington Bear. From the front. Right in the stomach.
She looked sick and muttered under her breath sulkily "Wouldn't have made much difference!"
Bob Edwards, the ever helpful presenter, then added insult to injury when he stated that in polling "just in" if Labour went with either a Referendum or No Brexit they would lose 30% of their voters who would definitely vote for another party.
I then realised the dilemma poor fake Jessie is in.
She is anti Corbyn so Momentum is after her.
She is a "Remainer MP" in a strong Leaver seat so the local population are after her.
She is squeezed between two huge forces and Corbyn put her there. Will she survive as an MP? Perhaps thats why she has lost lots of weight and looks so ill and depressed.
It's the perfect storm, no doubt repeated in many, many Labour constituencies across the land.
Cheers,
Tony
At the last GE both Conservative and Labour made huge gains in the vote, even though the Government lost it's majority. None of those extra votes came from remainers, they just voted the way they always do. The extra votes came from voters who had drifted towards UKIP, and following the referendum and both Conservative and Labour going into the GE promising to honour the result of the referendum, those voters simply returned to Conservative and Labour and UKIP were wiped out. Tbf, Labour did make gains from new blood too, young hard left idealists and a resurgence in the Momentum wing, but overall, they got their traditional vote back in those working class Labour heartlands.
If Brexit is binned, by either Conservative or Labour, alone or together, then Conservative and Labour two party politics will be finished. There will be three party politics, and I'm pretty sure that the third party could well be either the Conservatives or Labour, and not the new kid on the block, who may well find themselves as the second party. This new party wont be UKIP, but some sort of Vote Leave mongrel made up of all sorts, just like during the referendum. I'm not saying that because half the country voted leave, then Conservative and Labour will only get half their usual vote, but they'll lose a damn sight more than 20%.
I think the seismic shift that is yet to come will make Brexit look trivial in comparison. The HoC is going to look very different, particularly on the opposition benches, and a coalition government will be the norm, and could even end up being a Conservative/Labour coalition, crazy as that sounds, consider that the majority remain MP's in the house are already working together against Brexit just like a coalition. I don't think it's going to be polarisation of left/right anymore, it's going to be the polarisation of leave/remain.
No, I've not been drinking.
If Brexit is binned, by either Conservative or Labour, alone or together, then Conservative and Labour two party politics will be finished. There will be three party politics, and I'm pretty sure that the third party could well be either the Conservatives or Labour, and not the new kid on the block, who may well find themselves as the second party. This new party wont be UKIP, but some sort of Vote Leave mongrel made up of all sorts, just like during the referendum. I'm not saying that because half the country voted leave, then Conservative and Labour will only get half their usual vote, but they'll lose a damn sight more than 20%.
I think the seismic shift that is yet to come will make Brexit look trivial in comparison. The HoC is going to look very different, particularly on the opposition benches, and a coalition government will be the norm, and could even end up being a Conservative/Labour coalition, crazy as that sounds, consider that the majority remain MP's in the house are already working together against Brexit just like a coalition. I don't think it's going to be polarisation of left/right anymore, it's going to be the polarisation of leave/remain.
No, I've not been drinking.
Edited by Balmoral on Sunday 20th January 17:16
Tony427 said:
" I must do what I beleive is right for my constituents, I'm thinking about JLR and its workers. I dont care if I get re-elected or not". When the Conservative MP pointed out that the CEO of JLR had written to all local MP's telling them to vote for May's deal for the best future for the company and she hadn't, it was like being knifed by Paddington Bear. From the front. Right in the stomach.
She looked sick and muttered under her breath sulkily "Wouldn't have made much difference!"
She looked sick and muttered under her breath sulkily "Wouldn't have made much difference!"
From about 13 mins in.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0by2lqn/sun...
Balmoral said:
At the last GE both Conservative and Labour made huge gains in the vote, even though the Government lost it's majority. None of those extra votes came from remainers, they just voted the way they always do. The extra votes came from voters who had drifted towards UKIP, and following the referendum and both Conservative and Labour going into the GE promising to honour the result of the referendum, those voters simply returned to Conservative and Labour and UKIP were wiped out. Tbf, Labour did make gains from new blood too, young hard left idealists and a resurgence in the Momentum wing, but overall, they got their traditional vote back in those working class Labour heartlands.
If Brexit is binned, by either Conservative or Labour, alone or together, then Conservative and Labour two party politics will be finished. There will be three party politics, and I'm pretty sure that the third party could well be either the Conservatives or Labour, and not the new kid on the block, who may well find themselves as the second party. This third party wont be UKIP, but some sort of Vote Leave mongrel made up of all sorts, just like during the referendum. I'm not saying that because half the country voted leave, then Conservative and Labour will only get half their usual vote, but they'll lose a damn sight more than 20%.
I think the seismic shift that is yet to come will make Brexit look trivial in comparison. The HoC is going to look very different, particularly on the opposition benches, and a coalition government will be the norm, and could even end up being a Conservative/Labour coalition, crazy as that sounds, consider that the majority remain MP's in the house are already working together against Brexit just like a coalition. I don't think it's going to be polarisation of left/right anymore, it's going to be the polarisation of leave/remain.
No, I've not been drinking.
I agree with this synopsis and I think I have postulated a similar analysis previously. If Brexit is binned, by either Conservative or Labour, alone or together, then Conservative and Labour two party politics will be finished. There will be three party politics, and I'm pretty sure that the third party could well be either the Conservatives or Labour, and not the new kid on the block, who may well find themselves as the second party. This third party wont be UKIP, but some sort of Vote Leave mongrel made up of all sorts, just like during the referendum. I'm not saying that because half the country voted leave, then Conservative and Labour will only get half their usual vote, but they'll lose a damn sight more than 20%.
I think the seismic shift that is yet to come will make Brexit look trivial in comparison. The HoC is going to look very different, particularly on the opposition benches, and a coalition government will be the norm, and could even end up being a Conservative/Labour coalition, crazy as that sounds, consider that the majority remain MP's in the house are already working together against Brexit just like a coalition. I don't think it's going to be polarisation of left/right anymore, it's going to be the polarisation of leave/remain.
No, I've not been drinking.
However, I think betrayed Leavers , either by a Remainers Referendum, the term "Peoples Vote" gives it a legitimacy it does not deserve, or a simple cancelling of Brexit, will engender a right wing resurrection not seen since the 1930's.
It will not be a Fascist, racist outpouring. It will be a reaction against the political elite, the Londoncentric bubble. Those media and political lovvies who sit in their bubble assuming that they know best for all people and know how to assuage the demands of the population.
A bit like Macron.
How is that turning out? Riot police on the streets of most French cities and towns beating three bells of crap out on anyone, man, woman, cripple no matter, in front of them and being streamed live on Facebook doing it. 11 weeks in and the yellow Jackets are still there.
Macron is toast and the sensible politicians know it. Heads have rolled for less.
How is that going to work out in the EU Elections come May across the whole of the EU.
Unless Politicians reconnect with the people they will be seen more and more as an irrelevance and a block to progress.
Just how connected are the Houses of Parliament. MP's, Conservative and Labour?
How is it that I , a Grammar school educated company owner, ( with a goatee but not powerfully built) that has been a main board director for over 25 years, that has a first degree from a Russell Group University and a Masters from a Top Business School, that has a fully funded private pension he hasn't taken yet, and has worked all over the world, has more in common with any Yellow Jacket than I have with the Conservative MP who is supposedly representing me?
If the political classes cannot connect with me and my ilk what hope is there.
And if you think I am unusual I went to 40th year University reunion late last year. There were some 9 university friends there. All greyer, older, fatter, hopefully wiser and none short of the odd bob.
After a hesitant start we discovered that everyone of us, every one, had voted Leave.
The disconnect between the political classes and the ordinary people is obvious to all. Except those in the political classes.
I think it could all get very, very ugly.
"The Revolution will not be televised".
It will be on Facebook. Live.
Cheers,
Tony
Lets bury down into the numbers... It is estimated that 64% of constituencies voted to leave so if we assume 200 or so are remainer controlled the votes there probably will not change. Let us assume they are split 120 Labour and 80 Tory. That leaves the 400 or so leaver ones. These will not be 52-48 as some pretend to make out they will average 60% of leave voters. You really cannot assume that even politicians who voted to leave will be safe in any of these constituencies if Brexit is cancelled. Any association with the two main parties who engineered not leaving will be toxic.
A single centerish or even left and right populist party supporting a proper Brexit would clean up. There would be no coalition they would win outright and by a large majority The days of a safe Tory or Labour seat would be a thing of the past.
A single centerish or even left and right populist party supporting a proper Brexit would clean up. There would be no coalition they would win outright and by a large majority The days of a safe Tory or Labour seat would be a thing of the past.
There's also the added possibility of splits in both Conservative and Labour, that would give four or five party politics with the possibility of a fifth of the vote each, along with the current also rans, that may make for some very strange coalition bedfellows.
Ironically, Cameron and the HoC gave the referendum to put the issue to bed and get rid of the rising threat of UKIP, who were probably going to hit their ceiling sooner or later anyway. Sure, they got rid of UKIP, but not as intended, and may end up with a stronger more palatable, more powerful and bipartisan threat as a result.
It's also not as simple as we were in the EU before the referendum, and once all this mess has been cleared up and things are back to normal, we'll still be in the EU, nothing actually lost nor gained, so expect voters to revert to pre referendum habits. The genie was always there, locked away in that bottle, and whilst it didn't seem like it was being managed, looking back from where we are now, it certainly was. But now it's been let out, it's not going to be put back in.
Cameron and the HoC have made this issue, bad as it was, a gazillion times worse.
Ironically, Cameron and the HoC gave the referendum to put the issue to bed and get rid of the rising threat of UKIP, who were probably going to hit their ceiling sooner or later anyway. Sure, they got rid of UKIP, but not as intended, and may end up with a stronger more palatable, more powerful and bipartisan threat as a result.
It's also not as simple as we were in the EU before the referendum, and once all this mess has been cleared up and things are back to normal, we'll still be in the EU, nothing actually lost nor gained, so expect voters to revert to pre referendum habits. The genie was always there, locked away in that bottle, and whilst it didn't seem like it was being managed, looking back from where we are now, it certainly was. But now it's been let out, it's not going to be put back in.
Cameron and the HoC have made this issue, bad as it was, a gazillion times worse.
Vanden Saab said:
Lets bury down into the numbers... It is estimated that 64% of constituencies voted to leave so if we assume 200 or so are remainer controlled the votes there probably will not change. Let us assume they are split 120 Labour and 80 Tory. That leaves the 400 or so leaver ones. These will not be 52-48 as some pretend to make out they will average 60% of leave voters. You really cannot assume that even politicians who voted to leave will be safe in any of these constituencies if Brexit is cancelled. Any association with the two main parties who engineered not leaving will be toxic.
A single centerish or even left and right populist party supporting a proper Brexit would clean up. There would be no coalition they would win outright and by a large majority The days of a safe Tory or Labour seat would be a thing of the past.
Interesting, your analysis is even more seismic than mine.A single centerish or even left and right populist party supporting a proper Brexit would clean up. There would be no coalition they would win outright and by a large majority The days of a safe Tory or Labour seat would be a thing of the past.
I agree that a leave MP in a leave constituency is still going to be on rocky ground, despite doing their best, their best bet might be as an independent or joining the new party. A remain MP in a leave constituency is going to be toast, that constituency will just go for the new kids on the block.
Unless of course UKIP come back and risk splitting the vote, but I doubt most leavers would vote for them, they certainly didn't before. I would find it very hard to vote UKIP.
Edited by Balmoral on Sunday 20th January 18:51
No matter what form UKIP took, they would fail at any ballot box and are unelectable. NF has disavowed it and moved on - currently looking desperately for a new political home. He even has said he is likely to seek re-election in EU this year if Brexit fails. Too many UK politicians find him toxic so a new coalition seems improbable. It's ironic that the main instigator of the referendum may be its biggest loser.
Vanden Saab said:
Lets bury down into the numbers... It is estimated that 64% of constituencies voted to leave so if we assume 200 or so are remainer controlled the votes there probably will not change. Let us assume they are split 120 Labour and 80 Tory. That leaves the 400 or so leaver ones. These will not be 52-48 as some pretend to make out they will average 60% of leave voters. You really cannot assume that even politicians who voted to leave will be safe in any of these constituencies if Brexit is cancelled. Any association with the two main parties who engineered not leaving will be toxic.
A single centerish or even left and right populist party supporting a proper Brexit would clean up. There would be no coalition they would win outright and by a large majority The days of a safe Tory or Labour seat would be a thing of the past.
'The Brexit Party'.A single centerish or even left and right populist party supporting a proper Brexit would clean up. There would be no coalition they would win outright and by a large majority The days of a safe Tory or Labour seat would be a thing of the past.
Ukip’s former economics spokeswoman Catherine Blaiklock – who left Ukip a week after Mr Farage – revealed she had applied to register the new party with the Electoral Commission on 11 January.
Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage is prepared to “re-enter the fray” as leader of a new pro-Brexit party in preparation for a general election, should Britain’s departure from the European Union be delayed beyond 29 March.
The Electoral Commission has confirmed the Brexit party had applied to be registered. According to its website, the commission aims to decide on new political party registrations by 1 April.
Alternatively:
http://www.thesovereignparty.uk/
don'tbesilly said:
Vanden Saab said:
Lets bury down into the numbers... It is estimated that 64% of constituencies voted to leave so if we assume 200 or so are remainer controlled the votes there probably will not change. Let us assume they are split 120 Labour and 80 Tory. That leaves the 400 or so leaver ones. These will not be 52-48 as some pretend to make out they will average 60% of leave voters. You really cannot assume that even politicians who voted to leave will be safe in any of these constituencies if Brexit is cancelled. Any association with the two main parties who engineered not leaving will be toxic.
A single centerish or even left and right populist party supporting a proper Brexit would clean up. There would be no coalition they would win outright and by a large majority The days of a safe Tory or Labour seat would be a thing of the past.
'The Brexit Party'.A single centerish or even left and right populist party supporting a proper Brexit would clean up. There would be no coalition they would win outright and by a large majority The days of a safe Tory or Labour seat would be a thing of the past.
Ukip’s former economics spokeswoman Catherine Blaiklock – who left Ukip a week after Mr Farage – revealed she had applied to register the new party with the Electoral Commission on 11 January.
Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage is prepared to “re-enter the fray” as leader of a new pro-Brexit party in preparation for a general election, should Britain’s departure from the European Union be delayed beyond 29 March.
The Electoral Commission has confirmed the Brexit party had applied to be registered. According to its website, the commission aims to decide on new political party registrations by 1 April.
Alternatively:
http://www.thesovereignparty.uk/
He's just picked up 17.4 million votes.
Now life becomes extremely interesting.
Squeeky bum time for the Remainer MP's in any seat where Leave are are in the majority and any seat where the political party advocate a Remain/ Referendum policy.
Kier Starmer just got shanked.
Labour will lose 30% of their votes, and up to now they didnt have a home.
They have now.
Cheers,
Tony
Gives me no pleasure to say it but the Lib Dems could be major winners out of this, they are now the natural home the die hard remainers. Greens I don't think will benefit much outside of whacko constituencies like Brighton.
Labour could be in serious trouble in the Northern leaver constituencies and also in working class constituencies outside of London, I grew up in one and Corbyn does not represent those sort of areas at all, I can see them breaking the habit of a lifetime and turning away from Labour. Many "normal" Labour seats in the Midlands are fairly marginal anyway and change hands regularly, I can see them suffering major losses there at the next election.
Can't really see how the Conservatives can reunite, their Remainers have gone full on, scorched earth remain at any political or constitutional cost. I can only see a split or major numbers of deselection as many of those Tory remainers are not reflecting the views of their constituents or their own government.
Interesting times ahead.
For info. I'm a life long Tory voter, in a solidly leave constituency, with a Lib Dem MP, who can start packing his bags now I would think.
Labour could be in serious trouble in the Northern leaver constituencies and also in working class constituencies outside of London, I grew up in one and Corbyn does not represent those sort of areas at all, I can see them breaking the habit of a lifetime and turning away from Labour. Many "normal" Labour seats in the Midlands are fairly marginal anyway and change hands regularly, I can see them suffering major losses there at the next election.
Can't really see how the Conservatives can reunite, their Remainers have gone full on, scorched earth remain at any political or constitutional cost. I can only see a split or major numbers of deselection as many of those Tory remainers are not reflecting the views of their constituents or their own government.
Interesting times ahead.
For info. I'm a life long Tory voter, in a solidly leave constituency, with a Lib Dem MP, who can start packing his bags now I would think.
Edited by Norfolkit on Sunday 20th January 20:26
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