Jeremy Corbyn (Vol. 3)

[anonymous-user]

amusingduck said:

Brooking10 said:

amusingduck said:

Brooking10 said:

johnxjsc1985 said:

Polls are useless Mori has the Conservatives 4 points ahead another has Labour 9 points ahead. I think a major factor could actually be turn out by an Election will anyone actually think Voting is a worthwhile activity.

Several polls out now showing Lab pulling ahead specifically this week.

A scary thought.

The swing is largely down to good old Nigel and his gammon party.

What's scary about it?

We're overturning democratic votes because they'll damage the economy now, aren't we?

Order of economic magnitude.

Which one are you saying is an order of magnitude worse?

Labour govt.

[Stuzza]

johnxjsc1985 said:

Polls that have a 15 point variation are really not worth considering the only poll that will matter is when May does the honourable things and we have a G.E. If Nigel Farage manages to get a few MP's then he isn't going to help form a Labour Gov is he.
Another hung Parliament seems likely

A few MPs don’t matter (there’s a joke in there about most not mattering... but I digress) it’s the effect on splitting votes that’s the vital factor and hard to predict.

If most votes for a new single issue party come from the one side of the political spectrum then that can split the vote in enough constituencies that have small majorities to affect the results of the election as a whole.

The interesting thing is that Brexit is not exclusively a left/right issue which is both why we’re in the mess we’re in and also what makes the effect of The Brexit Party hard to predict. I feel it will have more an effect on the Tories as the party of government but no evidence for that feeling!

A greater effect might well be stay-at-home voters.

[anonymous-user]

Stuzza said:

A few MPs don’t matter (there’s a joke in there about most not mattering... but I digress) it’s the effect on splitting votes that’s the vital factor and hard to predict.

If most votes for a new single issue party come from the one side of the political spectrum then that can split the vote in enough constituencies that have small majorities to affect the results of the election as a whole.

The interesting thing is that Brexit is not exclusively a left/right issue which is both why we’re in the mess we’re in and also what makes the effect of The Brexit Party hard to predict. I feel it will have more an effect on the Tories as the party of government but no evidence for that feeling!

A greater effect might well be stay-at-home voters.

Succinctly put

[wc98]

Brooking10 said:

Point missed.

It’s the defectors to Nige that this week have eroded the Tory position in the polls.

But let’s hope to your point that come election time people see sense and vote for proper political parties if they bother to vote at all.

Edited by Brooking10 on Sunday 14th April 10:52

what would they be and where would we find them ? i can't think of one in the last 3 years.

[wc98]

Stuzza said:

A few MPs don’t matter (there’s a joke in there about most not mattering... but I digress) it’s the effect on splitting votes that’s the vital factor and hard to predict.

If most votes for a new single issue party come from the one side of the political spectrum then that can split the vote in enough constituencies that have small majorities to affect the results of the election as a whole.

The interesting thing is that Brexit is not exclusively a left/right issue which is both why we’re in the mess we’re in and also what makes the effect of The Brexit Party hard to predict. I feel it will have more an effect on the Tories as the party of government but no evidence for that feeling!

A greater effect might well be stay-at-home voters.

given where many of the ukip votes came from in the last election but one, i am surprised people are worried about the tories losing more votes to the brexit party than labour. i think they will both lose significant numbers to the brexit party. who knows, maybe enough for a tory/labour coalition to be formed, that would put the cat among the pigeons (and finally kill both stone dead,imo).

when i see people warning of a labour government if voters turn their backs on the tories i always think they are tory party members down to the last throw of the dice to keep their party going. i wonder what real party membership numbers will be this time next year ? 50 k max ?

[Vanden Saab]

Stuzza said:

johnxjsc1985 said:

Polls that have a 15 point variation are really not worth considering the only poll that will matter is when May does the honourable things and we have a G.E. If Nigel Farage manages to get a few MP's then he isn't going to help form a Labour Gov is he.
Another hung Parliament seems likely

A few MPs don’t matter (there’s a joke in there about most not mattering... but I digress) it’s the effect on splitting votes that’s the vital factor and hard to predict.

If most votes for a new single issue party come from the one side of the political spectrum then that can split the vote in enough constituencies that have small majorities to affect the results of the election as a whole.

The interesting thing is that Brexit is not exclusively a left/right issue which is both why we’re in the mess we’re in and also what makes the effect of The Brexit Party hard to predict. I feel it will have more an effect on the Tories as the party of government but no evidence for that feeling!

A greater effect might well be stay-at-home voters.

What the polls seem to miss is the difference between the two very different groups of Labour voters. Those in the cities and those in the rest of the country. That and their very different effect on the number of labour seats. While remainers might make up two thirds of the labour voters I am guessing they might only make up one third of the seats. So while the polls show Corbyn surging ahead the reality may be very different.

[rxe]

I suspect the swings in the polls are due to the idea of the Euro elections. It will be an interesting outcome - as it is quite possible that the sum of Brexit + UKIP might lead to 50% of the MEP being from those parties. Will make it rather entertaining in the European Parliament if Salvini, Le Pen and the AFD mob do as well as some are suggesting.

Back to domestic politics you’ve got a clear choice between incompetent conservatives and equally incompetent, but far more dangerous Labour. A Corbyn government would make Brexit look like a storm in a teacup.

[Mothersruin]

Vanden Saab said:

Stuzza said:

johnxjsc1985 said:

Polls that have a 15 point variation are really not worth considering the only poll that will matter is when May does the honourable things and we have a G.E. If Nigel Farage manages to get a few MP's then he isn't going to help form a Labour Gov is he.
Another hung Parliament seems likely

A few MPs don’t matter (there’s a joke in there about most not mattering... but I digress) it’s the effect on splitting votes that’s the vital factor and hard to predict.

If most votes for a new single issue party come from the one side of the political spectrum then that can split the vote in enough constituencies that have small majorities to affect the results of the election as a whole.

The interesting thing is that Brexit is not exclusively a left/right issue which is both why we’re in the mess we’re in and also what makes the effect of The Brexit Party hard to predict. I feel it will have more an effect on the Tories as the party of government but no evidence for that feeling!

A greater effect might well be stay-at-home voters.

What the polls seem to miss is the difference between the two very different groups of Labour voters. Those in the cities and those in the rest of the country. That and their very different effect on the number of labour seats. While remainers might make up two thirds of the labour voters I am guessing they might only make up one third of the seats. So while the polls show Corbyn surging ahead the reality may be very different.

The constituency vote was 63% leave, ties in.

[Halb]

Brexit and UKiPs might also split their vote. It's a complete crap shoot as to what could happen.

[Hereward]

There is a relentless, inexorable inevitability that Corbyn is going to be PM soon. Astonishing. Who could possibly have imagined the unthinkable twists and turns over the last few years that have got us to the this point.

Corbyn and Mcdonnell have dared to dream of this moment their entire careers and the symbolism of leading the revolution from the very city where their idol Marx is buried will mean they will be radical and ruthless. Can parliament, Labour moderates and the civil service control them? We have seen time and time again around the world that an inner circle of less than ten people can control (and destroy) a nation.

I hope I am totally wrong about what is coming.

[djohnson]

Hereward said:

There is a relentless, inexorable inevitability that Corbyn is going to be PM soon. Astonishing. Who could possibly have imagined the unthinkable twists and turns over the last few years that have got us to the this point.

Corbyn and Mcdonnell have dared to dream of this moment their entire careers and the symbolism of leading the revolution from the very city where their idol Marx is buried will mean they will be radical and ruthless. Can parliament, Labour moderates and the civil service control them? We have seen time and time again around the world that an inner circle of less than ten people can control (and destroy) a nation.

I hope I am totally wrong about what is coming.

Whilst I agree that the current unprecedented circumstances give a unique opportunity for these nutty Marxists to achieve power, whereas in normal circumstance they’d have no chance, in my view it’s far from inevitable. The electorate will struggle with trusting the Tories to deliver Brexit again and if we have to have a GE before Brexit is sorted then it becomes a one issue GE and PM Corbyn might well happen. If the government can hold it together and find a way to deliver Brexit then we’re back to more normal times and I doubt Corbyn would have a chance.

I do agree that Brexit will look like a walk in the park compared to the devastation a Corbyn government would deliver and avoiding this should be the primary objective of every intelligent politician and voter. The problem is massively over simplified messages do sell to the electorate......

[Burwood]

The polls are like a protest. You say Labour’ because you’re pissed off but when you tuck that box, you most likely stick to brung sensible.

[B'stard Child]

Burwood said:

The polls are like a protest. You say Labour’ because you’re pissed off but when you tuck that box, you most likely stick to brung sensible.

The mistake you make is assuming all voters have something to lose

The referendum should have taught you that there are a large number of people in this country who have so little to lose that they don't give a st

Elections are won by the floating voters - that will probably always be the case but if the non floating change their habits the results could be very unpredictable

[Burwood]

B'stard Child said:

Burwood said:

The polls are like a protest. You say Labour’ because you’re pissed off but when you tuck that box, you most likely stick to brung sensible.

The mistake you make is assuming all voters have something to lose

The referendum should have taught you that there are a large number of people in this country who have so little to lose that they don't give a st

Elections are won by the floating voters - that will probably always be the case but if the non floating change their habits the results could be very unpredictable

Of course you’re correct. I was adamant I wouldn’t vote for that lying prick Cameron but I did in the end.

[B'stard Child]

Burwood said:

B'stard Child said:

Burwood said:

The polls are like a protest. You say Labour’ because you’re pissed off but when you tuck that box, you most likely stick to brung sensible.

The mistake you make is assuming all voters have something to lose

The referendum should have taught you that there are a large number of people in this country who have so little to lose that they don't give a st

Elections are won by the floating voters - that will probably always be the case but if the non floating change their habits the results could be very unpredictable

Of course you’re correct. I was adamant I wouldn’t vote for that lying prick Cameron but I did in the end.

Because you weigh up the situation and make a balanced decision

I did that with the referendum

For the next GE I will be in fk it mode because not because I don't have anything to lose but because I'm prepared to lose a bit for the greater goal

[wc98]

B'stard Child said:

Because you weigh up the situation and make a balanced decision

I did that with the referendum

For the next GE I will be in fk it mode because not because I don't have anything to lose but because I'm prepared to lose a bit for the greater goal

you won't be the only one in that frame of mind at the next general election.

[johnxjsc1985]

When an Election comes and people look at the Ballot paper against Labour just have a picture of Corbyn in your mind.
The problem for me and I guess millions of others is who the hell do you Vote for having witnessed Parliament completely work in unison to prevent the result of the referendum being honoured. What will be great fun is watching those who turned their back on the wishes of their constituencies getting their arse handed to them on a plate

[Oilchange]

Absolutely, will be a dish served cold handed to Yvette Cooper at least, (if it happens)

[edh]

Much as I'd like to see a general election as this government has completely lost its ability to govern, I can't see the mechanism that will effect this any time soon.

I don't see a vote of no confidence passing, or a vote under the fixed term parliaments act passing. None of the conservatives DUP or CUK want an election.

[JagLover]

Brooking10 said:

Point missed.

It’s the defectors to Nige that this week have eroded the Tory position in the polls.

But let’s hope to your point that come election time people see sense and vote for proper political parties if they bother to vote at all.

proper political parties are those who keep their manifesto commitments.