Anti-vax conspiraloons actually killing people.
Discussion
wsurfa said:
erm, not sure if serious... 
the originators of epidemiology knew (John Snow for example).
Faraday (a bit of a have a go amateur physicist type) pushed for clean up of the Thames, and the Great Stink did the rest - at least in terms of diseases like cholera.
Drugs and nets have averted c 2/3rd of a billion cases of malaria in sub saharan Africa in the last 20 years alone - so that might be the biggest 'save'
Another vote for John Snow. Thank you! the originators of epidemiology knew (John Snow for example). Faraday (a bit of a have a go amateur physicist type) pushed for clean up of the Thames, and the Great Stink did the rest - at least in terms of diseases like cholera.
Drugs and nets have averted c 2/3rd of a billion cases of malaria in sub saharan Africa in the last 20 years alone - so that might be the biggest 'save'
The MMR issue is not the one that Wakefield sensationalised. When my oldest child was vaccinated in the early 90s the British National Formulary stated that a second MMR vaccination was only required if the first had proved to be ineffective, as evidenced by a blood test. At some point someone must have realised that this would be expensive so the BNF guidance was changed to two vaccinations. My youngest child fell within that new guidance and we refused a second MMR without a blood test to confirm that it was necessary. To confront the local GP surgury and community paediatric nursing community in such a way was not well received and many threatening and catastrophising letters ensued. We refused until they gave up. My children WERE given the MMR but only once. This of course is not the same as the anti-vax brigade which occurred later.
The change in the BNF guidance was, I think, an easy way to up the strike rate across the board, not because it was absolutely necessary.
The change in the BNF guidance was, I think, an easy way to up the strike rate across the board, not because it was absolutely necessary.
Edited by checkmate91 on Tuesday 21st August 21:24
Jasandjules said:
captain_cynic said:
Sadly, once the anti-vaxxer ball was rolling, it's difficult to stop even though in 2012 Wakefield admitted he made the whole thing up.
Do you have a link to that ? Would like to read more.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC23230...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC31360...
captain_cynic said:
As requested,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC23230...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC31360...
Some of Wakefield's co-authors retracted their original findings in a follow up article. Wakefield wasn't one of them, in fact he maintained his innocence and stood by his findings (he claimed they had been repeated in 5 other countries). He even claimed that there was a conspiracy against him. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC23230...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC31360...
The man was so entrenched in self justification that he couldn't see how untenable his position had become. Cognitive dissonance is a powerful force.
RTB said:
captain_cynic said:
As requested,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC23230...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC31360...
Some of Wakefield's co-authors retracted their original findings in a follow up article. Wakefield wasn't one of them, in fact he maintained his innocence and stood by his findings (he claimed they had been repeated in 5 other countries). He even claimed that there was a conspiracy against him. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC23230...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC31360...
The man was so entrenched in self justification that he couldn't see how untenable his position had become. Cognitive dissonance is a powerful force.
captain_cynic said:
RTB said:
captain_cynic said:
As requested,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC23230...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC31360...
Some of Wakefield's co-authors retracted their original findings in a follow up article. Wakefield wasn't one of them, in fact he maintained his innocence and stood by his findings (he claimed they had been repeated in 5 other countries). He even claimed that there was a conspiracy against him. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC23230...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC31360...
The man was so entrenched in self justification that he couldn't see how untenable his position had become. Cognitive dissonance is a powerful force.
checkmate91 said:
The MMR issue is not the one that Wakefield sensationalised. When my oldest child was vaccinated in the early 90s the British National Formulary stated that a second MMR vaccination was only required if the first had proved to be ineffective, as evidenced by a blood test. At some point someone must have realised that this would be expensive so the BNF guidance was changed to two vaccinations. My youngest child fell within that new guidance and we refused a second MMR without a blood test to confirm that it was necessary. To confront the local GP surgury and community paediatric nursing community in such a way was not well received and many threatening and catastrophising letters ensued. We refused until they gave up. My children WERE given the MMR but only once. This of course is not the same as the anti-vax brigade which occurred later.
The change in the BNF guidance was, I think, an easy way to up the strike rate across the board, not because it was absolutely necessary.
The failure rate on one exposure only is something like 5%. I can't really fathom why you wouldn't give them a second dose. Most of the research confirming that a second dose was a good idea was published in the 90's, hence the change in policy. Your refusal was probably 'not well received' because they thought you were an idiot - I assume that you retained your morally superior position by having a blood test done independently?The change in the BNF guidance was, I think, an easy way to up the strike rate across the board, not because it was absolutely necessary.
I think it is very easy to be scathing with hindsight, in the same way that one could berate people in the Middle Ages for believeing that the sun orbited the Earth.
My two children were right in the middle of this. As a parent the data I had was both media driven and experience driven.
First up, I’d barely heard of autism until about 2005. I’d never met anyone with it, no one at school had it. Now 3 kids in in my son’s class were diagnosed with it. With hindsight it was probably down to better diagnosis, but at the time it was all very odd.
Secondly, there appeared to be noise in an apparently respectable medical journal that something was wrong. I don’t have time to review medical studies, any more than I expect medics to give me a low down on CPU architectures.
Finally, in the context of MMR, I wasn’t overly concerned about measles - I’d had it, everyone at school had had it, no one died. Ditto mumps.
Given the choice between a low probability/high impact outcome (autism) and a low probability/low impact outcome event (getting measles) we deferred the MMR for the kids until the facts were clear. They’ve both had it now, and in general terms I classify the “all vaccines are bad” mob in the same category as flat earthers and preppers, but on that specific case, it was all a bit worrying for a while.
My two children were right in the middle of this. As a parent the data I had was both media driven and experience driven.
First up, I’d barely heard of autism until about 2005. I’d never met anyone with it, no one at school had it. Now 3 kids in in my son’s class were diagnosed with it. With hindsight it was probably down to better diagnosis, but at the time it was all very odd.
Secondly, there appeared to be noise in an apparently respectable medical journal that something was wrong. I don’t have time to review medical studies, any more than I expect medics to give me a low down on CPU architectures.
Finally, in the context of MMR, I wasn’t overly concerned about measles - I’d had it, everyone at school had had it, no one died. Ditto mumps.
Given the choice between a low probability/high impact outcome (autism) and a low probability/low impact outcome event (getting measles) we deferred the MMR for the kids until the facts were clear. They’ve both had it now, and in general terms I classify the “all vaccines are bad” mob in the same category as flat earthers and preppers, but on that specific case, it was all a bit worrying for a while.
checkmate91 said:
Double dosing everyone because of a single figure failure rate? Didn't seem like the right answer at the time and still doesn't. Maybe I am an idiot but have a nice day.
Do your kids know? Probably worth them deciding if they want a second dose themselves. Single figure failure rate means ineffective in 1 in 20 cases. rxe said:
Given the choice between a low probability/high impact outcome (autism) and a low probability/low impact outcome event (getting measles) we deferred the MMR for the kids until the facts were clear.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't measles kill more people than any other disease we have vaccination capability for? InitialDave said:
rxe said:
Given the choice between a no probability/no impact outcome (autism) and a low probability/low impact outcome event (getting measles) we deferred the MMR for the kids until the facts were clear.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't measles kill more people than any other disease we have vaccination capability for? In 2016, 0 people got autism from the MMR vaccine... Because you don't get autism from the MMR vaccine.
It's as easy to say this now than it was in 1997 when Andrew Wakefield faked his study.
People who cant get that are prime examples why we need to license people to breed.
I'm not sure if its the biggest preventable killer disease, but it's definitely up there. The big problem with Measles is that it mostly kills kids under 5.
InitialDave said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't measles kill more people than any other disease we have vaccination capability for?
Measels hasn’t killed a double digit number of people in the UK for 30 years. I’d be more worried about getting flu than measels. I’m a lot more worried about falling down the stairs than both combined. rxe said:
Measels hasn’t killed a double digit number of people in the UK for 30 years. I’d be more worried about getting flu than measels. I’m a lot more worried about falling down the stairs than both combined.
That's because measles was on the decline due to vaccinations. Flu isn't something we can vaccinate against because it mutates too quickly. Its also not anywhere near as deadly. You're not worried about measles because your parents vaccinated you.
Measles cases have increased sharply in the 2000's because people weren't vaccinating.
As stated above, there have been 0 cases of autism linked to the MMR vaccine.
checkmate91 said:
Double dosing everyone because of a single figure failure rate? Didn't seem like the right answer at the time and still doesn't. Maybe I am an idiot but have a nice day.
Your logic is sound, if you're of the opinion that vaccines are dangerous. Of course, having the opinion that vaccines are dangerous is pretty idiotic.
rxe said:
Which is why it is a low probability, low outcome event. Very unlikely to catch it, even more unlikely to die from it.
Your assertion that reported cases is rising in the 2000s isn’t really true according to the ONS data either.
IIRC, there was some outbreaks in Wales a few years ago because entire communities refused to vaccinate their kids; and so once introduced to the community, measles was able to spread. Your assertion that reported cases is rising in the 2000s isn’t really true according to the ONS data either.
That's the primary danger in the UK, where clusters of parents do not vaccinate, and there is no herd immunity.
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