Brexit - 35% House Prices Crash
Discussion
ToothbrushMan said:
kambites said:
ToothbrushMan said:
what will the next phase of austerity entail - I dont even want to go there............
I think the Tories have been looking for an excuse to privatise the NHS for years... Under Gordon Brown...
Ninja59 said:
Difficult one, we completed in March and I have kept an eye on the value ever since. I work within part of the industry so maybe it was closer to home when I purchased our own home.
Reality is that the sellers in all the properties we viewed were not being realistic with the values of their homes and only after protracted negotiation did they want to reduce it (and it is not as though in some circumstances they were not making enough on the sale, so it was pure greed).
Equally true is that the marketing at least in the SE is slowing dramatically, properties are coming to the market slower than ever. Some of the North West is coping better mind in terms of coming on to the market to be sold.
I think the drop in prices in the SE is more to do with less dubious Russian money flowing in than anything to do in EuropeReality is that the sellers in all the properties we viewed were not being realistic with the values of their homes and only after protracted negotiation did they want to reduce it (and it is not as though in some circumstances they were not making enough on the sale, so it was pure greed).
Equally true is that the marketing at least in the SE is slowing dramatically, properties are coming to the market slower than ever. Some of the North West is coping better mind in terms of coming on to the market to be sold.
CaptainSensib1e said:
There's nothing which is likely to drive interest rates up in the medium term, which is the main facotr which would crive up mortgage costs. If anything I could see them dropping to 0.5% (or lower) again post Brexit if there's concern the economy is slowing down.
Possibly some more of this... UK households face squeeze after surprise inflation jump to 2.7%Hayek said:
CaptainSensib1e said:
There's nothing which is likely to drive interest rates up in the medium term, which is the main facotr which would crive up mortgage costs. If anything I could see them dropping to 0.5% (or lower) again post Brexit if there's concern the economy is slowing down.
Possibly some more of this... UK households face squeeze after surprise inflation jump to 2.7%https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485
2.9% wage inflation
Du1point8 said:
Was told there would be a crash last time when I bought just before the crash in 2007, in reality my house took 3 years to go up 10% but it didnt lose any money at all.
It's amazing meeting these fantastic PH'ers who live in recession-proof houses.I bought in London in 2007. I sold in 2013 - for £1,000 more. £1k that was it.
Maybe there's something wrong with me? But then the graph posted above shows that there was overall growth between 2007 and 2013 of..............
you guessed it
ZERO.
oyster said:
It's amazing meeting these fantastic PH'ers who live in recession-proof houses.
I bought in London in 2007. I sold in 2013 - for £1,000 more. £1k that was it.
Maybe there's something wrong with me? But then the graph posted above shows that there was overall growth between 2007 and 2013 of..............
you guessed it
ZERO.
We bought a house in 2012 and prices didn't shift much for a couple of years, then they went up 50% in the next two or three.I bought in London in 2007. I sold in 2013 - for £1,000 more. £1k that was it.
Maybe there's something wrong with me? But then the graph posted above shows that there was overall growth between 2007 and 2013 of..............
you guessed it
ZERO.
We are about to start a new house build and will be partly financing with a mortgage on the above, but considering selling it instead because while financing an asset is normally a sound way to release capital if prices drop we will be hit with both the drop in value of the house we build and the one we have mortgaged.
Yes I know, boo hoo not enough money left to rub a pair of McLarens together, but we see it as more socially responsible to use the money we have saved to provide work and income for people than just let it sit in investment accounts. If prices drop then we still have a nice house to live in and a bunch of people are able to pay their mortgages and keep theirs.
oyster said:
Du1point8 said:
Was told there would be a crash last time when I bought just before the crash in 2007, in reality my house took 3 years to go up 10% but it didnt lose any money at all.
It's amazing meeting these fantastic PH'ers who live in recession-proof houses.I bought in London in 2007. I sold in 2013 - for £1,000 more. £1k that was it.
Maybe there's something wrong with me? But then the graph posted above shows that there was overall growth between 2007 and 2013 of..............
you guessed it
ZERO.
If I had bought in London rather than the East Midlands back in the day, I would now be writing this post from a beach in Barbados with a big smile on my face.
However, I didn't and after recently moving I now have another 22 years left on the mortgage.
oyster said:
Du1point8 said:
Was told there would be a crash last time when I bought just before the crash in 2007, in reality my house took 3 years to go up 10% but it didnt lose any money at all.
It's amazing meeting these fantastic PH'ers who live in recession-proof houses.I bought in London in 2007. I sold in 2013 - for £1,000 more. £1k that was it.
Maybe there's something wrong with me? But then the graph posted above shows that there was overall growth between 2007 and 2013 of..............
you guessed it
ZERO.
I bought in Claam in 2007, the place is now worth over DOUBLE... DOUBLE what I paid for it, it wasnt until after 2013 that I got a rapid increase.
HTH
oyster said:
Du1point8 said:
Was told there would be a crash last time when I bought just before the crash in 2007, in reality my house took 3 years to go up 10% but it didnt lose any money at all.
It's amazing meeting these fantastic PH'ers who live in recession-proof houses.I bought in London in 2007. I sold in 2013 - for £1,000 more. £1k that was it.
Maybe there's something wrong with me? But then the graph posted above shows that there was overall growth between 2007 and 2013 of..............
you guessed it
ZERO.
I am not saying its always a boast thing - just that such an outcome is perhaps more noteworthy to the "winners" and its understandable that the impression it leaves is more dramatic and hence people want to speak out more. The same could be said in part for the bigger "losers" on the other side of that coin.
As has been said, house prices are very localised and during the peak, trough and recovery I have lived in the South, the Midlands and the North so have witnessed some massive variances in how prices have climbed, fallen and then some have recovered (and beyond) and others never have.
Where I live currently has never really recovered from 2008. Apartments in particular are still 25%+ down on 2006/2007 prices (even saying "apartments" is too broad, as some have gone back to pre-crash prices, others in certain developments are way off still). Houses outside of the city centre and on a par for the most part to 2007 or so, but again its localised.
In the same period, a house of mine in the Midlands (bought on the cusp of the crash), shedded value in 2008/2009 but then steadily climbed well beyond its 2007 purchase price and has continued to do so, year on year post about 2012 I would say (when it perhaps caught up with its 2007 purchase price). Its now sat a good 35% or so higher than 2007.
Similarly, a house of mine I owned in the South (sold 2007 ish) never really took much of a hit in the 2008 crash and values in that area didn't really seem to take much of a hit. The price stagnated for a few years and then gradually climbed, albeit with a less dramatic upward curve than the Midlands property (albeit that was impacted more 2008-2010 so then fell well below 2007 price).
The graphs show the combined set of statistics, even county by county and I think its pointless to try and compare frankly unless those doing so live only streets apart in the same type of property. Even then you will probably find micro-anomalies that would account for variations. It's what makes zoopla such a joke in terms of really having any real world value.
Edited by Shnozz on Wednesday 19th September 17:25
CubanPete said:
Hayek said:
CaptainSensib1e said:
There's nothing which is likely to drive interest rates up in the medium term, which is the main facotr which would crive up mortgage costs. If anything I could see them dropping to 0.5% (or lower) again post Brexit if there's concern the economy is slowing down.
Possibly some more of this... UK households face squeeze after surprise inflation jump to 2.7%https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45481485
2.9% wage inflation
oyster said:
Du1point8 said:
Was told there would be a crash last time when I bought just before the crash in 2007, in reality my house took 3 years to go up 10% but it didnt lose any money at all.
It's amazing meeting these fantastic PH'ers who live in recession-proof houses.I bought in London in 2007. I sold in 2013 - for £1,000 more. £1k that was it.
Maybe there's something wrong with me? But then the graph posted above shows that there was overall growth between 2007 and 2013 of..............
you guessed it
ZERO.
Looking at one of my properties, houses in that road sold for up to £155k before 2008. We bought in the middle of the recession for 107k. They are now around 220k.
Edited by 98elise on Thursday 20th September 08:37
captain_cynic said:
Also remember that there are changes to agent and letting fees being introduced next year (march IIRC) meaning that agents and landlords can no longer charge you £400 just to walk through the door and I constantly hear complaints that it's barely profitable as it is. Combine this with the pound dropping causing less disposable income (hence renters will be moving to cheaper properties) and we're likely to see fair few BTL properties being put on the market and agents going tits up at the same time. This will have an effect on prices.
Houses are already not selling very well, A colleague had to sell his property for £50,000 less than advertised after 10 months of advertising and 3 different agents.
The price you ask is nothing to do with what something is worth. All that says is thas his house was £50 over-valued by him. It doesn't mean houses are not selling very well.Houses are already not selling very well, A colleague had to sell his property for £50,000 less than advertised after 10 months of advertising and 3 different agents.
AJL308 said:
captain_cynic said:
Also remember that there are changes to agent and letting fees being introduced next year (march IIRC) meaning that agents and landlords can no longer charge you £400 just to walk through the door and I constantly hear complaints that it's barely profitable as it is. Combine this with the pound dropping causing less disposable income (hence renters will be moving to cheaper properties) and we're likely to see fair few BTL properties being put on the market and agents going tits up at the same time. This will have an effect on prices.
Houses are already not selling very well, A colleague had to sell his property for £50,000 less than advertised after 10 months of advertising and 3 different agents.
The price you ask is nothing to do with what something is worth. All that says is thas his house was £50 over-valued by him. It doesn't mean houses are not selling very well.Houses are already not selling very well, A colleague had to sell his property for £50,000 less than advertised after 10 months of advertising and 3 different agents.
It took 8 months to get an offer, any offer. That means houses aren't selling very well as it is. He had to go through 3 different agents before getting that offer and even they said the market had slowed down considerably.
And it will get worse.
captain_cynic said:
AJL308 said:
captain_cynic said:
Also remember that there are changes to agent and letting fees being introduced next year (march IIRC) meaning that agents and landlords can no longer charge you £400 just to walk through the door and I constantly hear complaints that it's barely profitable as it is. Combine this with the pound dropping causing less disposable income (hence renters will be moving to cheaper properties) and we're likely to see fair few BTL properties being put on the market and agents going tits up at the same time. This will have an effect on prices.
Houses are already not selling very well, A colleague had to sell his property for £50,000 less than advertised after 10 months of advertising and 3 different agents.
The price you ask is nothing to do with what something is worth. All that says is thas his house was £50 over-valued by him. It doesn't mean houses are not selling very well.Houses are already not selling very well, A colleague had to sell his property for £50,000 less than advertised after 10 months of advertising and 3 different agents.
It took 8 months to get an offer, any offer. That means houses aren't selling very well as it is. He had to go through 3 different agents before getting that offer and even they said the market had slowed down considerably.
And it will get worse.
sidicks said:
Hilts said:
Price are going to fall by 35% they say?
OK I'm selling up now.
Going to buy back when they've dropped by 35%...or more, trousering a nice profit.
I cannot see any problems with this plan.
No, they haven’t said that.OK I'm selling up now.
Going to buy back when they've dropped by 35%...or more, trousering a nice profit.
I cannot see any problems with this plan.
I've just mentally spent half my profit on new cars and then you come along and let down my tyres.
Thanks.
A.
Lot.
Jasandjules said:
Not a chance. They are building estates like mad things around here and they are selling faster than they can build them
Those who are buying them are simply being able to get mortgages at the current rates affordability ratios from lenders willing to lend. It would appear very few are looking to the future considering most mortgages are in the working lifetime range. If you could not get a mortgage how much would you be able to pay for a house? House prices are purely dictated by the lenders & the bubble is going to go pop.
I've lived in France and for the last 16 years and for the last few years have been looking for a little terraced cottage with a small garden and a parking space to go back to to when I visit the South West. The typical sort of thing I've looked at has a living room and kitchen downstairs with 2 bedrooms and a bathroom upstairs. Size is around 80-90 square meters.
The price is always the same, around £400K. It's utterly insane. Who are the mad people driving this market? Prices are this high, because people are showing that they are ready to pay this kind of money for this kind of product. If I knew it was a dead cert investment then that would be another thing but at any time the bottom could fall out of the market and you'd be left feeling like a fool.
This sort of thing:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
This place is just 75 square meters.
I could literally buy a Chateau for this kind of money in France
The price is always the same, around £400K. It's utterly insane. Who are the mad people driving this market? Prices are this high, because people are showing that they are ready to pay this kind of money for this kind of product. If I knew it was a dead cert investment then that would be another thing but at any time the bottom could fall out of the market and you'd be left feeling like a fool.
This sort of thing:
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...
This place is just 75 square meters.
I could literally buy a Chateau for this kind of money in France
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