Italy defies it's Economy Minister...
Discussion
TooMany2cvs said:
Let's not forget that this is the Eurozone, not the EU. The UK had a permanent opt-out from the Euro, and did not fund the ECB in any way.
Oh, and only 2.4% of GDP? The UK's deficit in 2010 was 11.6% of GDP. It was still 2.96% as recently as 2015.
Gordon and Tony did make a complete arse of themselves didn't they. Cant believe that old McDonald thinks the solution to over spending is to spend more... Oh, and only 2.4% of GDP? The UK's deficit in 2010 was 11.6% of GDP. It was still 2.96% as recently as 2015.
Draghi's performing today... it should be interesting especially as he's Italian. He's spoken against the EUs budget deficit rules in the past. Of course it won't be, he'll spin some growth nonsense (that's so wafer thin to be laughable); but caveat that he might need to keep rates at lows through till eternity. Headline inflation @ 2.1% super! Oh, its mostly oil though; internal demand led inflation <1%. He goes off script, bank stocks will melt.
With Italy bouncing of a junk rating, his "big bazooka" of central bank action is going to look like a pea shooter with yields heading into orbit.
The rat run to short term safety is blame BREXIT turbulence / head winds, and ignore the fundamentals. They are going to legitimise budget overrun.
With Italy bouncing of a junk rating, his "big bazooka" of central bank action is going to look like a pea shooter with yields heading into orbit.
The rat run to short term safety is blame BREXIT turbulence / head winds, and ignore the fundamentals. They are going to legitimise budget overrun.
Edited by stongle on Thursday 25th October 08:45
I'm in Italy at the moment. (Admittedly in the North, Salvini territory.)
The usual caveats about anecdote and impressions apply to the following.
The mood seems very supportive of the government and, interestingly, hot on the outcome of a poll for the European Parliament (if I'm understanding the television reports correctly) that suggests that Italy as whole is now more Eurosceptic than the UK, although interestingly not pressing to leave the EU. The report referred to a poll of nearly 28,000 Europeans commissioned by the European Parliament and conducted as recently as September. My Italian is far from perfect but I think the basics are correct.
If I understood this right, only 44% of Italians surveyed said they would vote to stay in the EU, reported as the lowest percentage of all 28 member states – including the UK (where the comparator figure in the poll was 53%).
It also stated that only 43% of Italians – the lowest percentage overall – felt that their country had benefited from being a member, compared to 45% who said it had not. They also felt more disenfranchised than other countries, with 66% saying they felt their country's voice didn't count in the EU.
(Interestingly, the report highlighted that a clear majority of respondents in Italy were convinced that things in the EU were going in the wrong direction: 58%, with just 21% who said it was on the right track, and that most EU countries had answered similarly with a comparable percentage of people in France, Spain and Germany saying exactly the same thing.)
This is coupled to a real sense (backed up by frequent throwaway comments I hear in day-to-day conversation), that things are being run solely for the convenience of the Germans and to a degree the French. There is real outrage at the level of (especially youth) unemployment and no sense of growth leading to a way out.
Talking to various neighbours (who view the antics of the Liga and 5 Star with horror), the view seems to be that Salvini has nothing much to lose as, if the coalition with 5 Star fails, he stands to make considerable gains in any subsequent election. And Brussels is unlikely to be too hard in the end, because if it isn't, it is inevitable that Italian banks would quickly collapse, with the contagion is likely to spread beyond Italy and possibly threaten the Euro itself.
Therefore what J-CJ and co will need to calculate is whether they really need another big dispute simultaneous with their ding dongs with the Hungarians, Poles etc, as well as Brexit. Especially one that could lead to bank collapses all over Europe. Interestingly, Brexit was not mentioned much or as a possible cause/precedent for restraint.
I think many Italians are putting their money on Brussels blinking first and coming up with a fudge.
The usual caveats about anecdote and impressions apply to the following.
The mood seems very supportive of the government and, interestingly, hot on the outcome of a poll for the European Parliament (if I'm understanding the television reports correctly) that suggests that Italy as whole is now more Eurosceptic than the UK, although interestingly not pressing to leave the EU. The report referred to a poll of nearly 28,000 Europeans commissioned by the European Parliament and conducted as recently as September. My Italian is far from perfect but I think the basics are correct.
If I understood this right, only 44% of Italians surveyed said they would vote to stay in the EU, reported as the lowest percentage of all 28 member states – including the UK (where the comparator figure in the poll was 53%).
It also stated that only 43% of Italians – the lowest percentage overall – felt that their country had benefited from being a member, compared to 45% who said it had not. They also felt more disenfranchised than other countries, with 66% saying they felt their country's voice didn't count in the EU.
(Interestingly, the report highlighted that a clear majority of respondents in Italy were convinced that things in the EU were going in the wrong direction: 58%, with just 21% who said it was on the right track, and that most EU countries had answered similarly with a comparable percentage of people in France, Spain and Germany saying exactly the same thing.)
This is coupled to a real sense (backed up by frequent throwaway comments I hear in day-to-day conversation), that things are being run solely for the convenience of the Germans and to a degree the French. There is real outrage at the level of (especially youth) unemployment and no sense of growth leading to a way out.
Talking to various neighbours (who view the antics of the Liga and 5 Star with horror), the view seems to be that Salvini has nothing much to lose as, if the coalition with 5 Star fails, he stands to make considerable gains in any subsequent election. And Brussels is unlikely to be too hard in the end, because if it isn't, it is inevitable that Italian banks would quickly collapse, with the contagion is likely to spread beyond Italy and possibly threaten the Euro itself.
Therefore what J-CJ and co will need to calculate is whether they really need another big dispute simultaneous with their ding dongs with the Hungarians, Poles etc, as well as Brexit. Especially one that could lead to bank collapses all over Europe. Interestingly, Brexit was not mentioned much or as a possible cause/precedent for restraint.
I think many Italians are putting their money on Brussels blinking first and coming up with a fudge.
Digga said:
I see Stongle's argument about us being a potentially convenient ally and doing very well out of the deal, but I can equally see a scenario where it blows up in our face too.
Its just an argument, potential outcome. There are many other ways it could break down. Of course we'd get affected by contagion, but the intertwined nature of the Eurozone means that a death spiral is quite a high possibility and oft discussed. If th sh*t hits the fan, the velocity will be beyond that of the ECBs, EC or local governments ability to manage.When bank domino's begin to fall, its both private and state actors at play. On the 14th Sept 2008, Barclays walked away from saving Lehman (In part due to politics). If Eurozone banks start to topple; where are they going to go for support? The appetite of the conservative Dutch farmer banks is going to be tested - they have to go outside the zone for support.
stongle said:
Its just an argument, potential outcome. There are many other ways it could break down. Of course we'd get affected by contagion, but the intertwined nature of the Eurozone means that a death spiral is quite a high possibility and oft discussed. If th sh*t hits the fan, the velocity will be beyond that of the ECBs, EC or local governments ability to manage.
When bank domino's begin to fall, its both private and state actors at play. On the 14th Sept 2008, Barclays walked away from saving Lehman (In part due to politics). If Eurozone banks start to topple; where are they going to go for support? The appetite of the conservative Dutch farmer banks is going to be tested - they have to go outside the zone for support.
Out of devilment, we could always ask TM to offer the Italian government the safe and relatively stable haven of sterling if they want to consider leaving the EuroWhen bank domino's begin to fall, its both private and state actors at play. On the 14th Sept 2008, Barclays walked away from saving Lehman (In part due to politics). If Eurozone banks start to topple; where are they going to go for support? The appetite of the conservative Dutch farmer banks is going to be tested - they have to go outside the zone for support.
. psi310398 said:
I'm in Italy at the moment. (Admittedly in the North, Salvini territory.)
The usual caveats about anecdote and impressions apply to the following.
The mood seems very supportive of the government and, interestingly, hot on the outcome of a poll for the European Parliament (if I'm understanding the television reports correctly) that suggests that Italy as whole is now more Eurosceptic than the UK, although interestingly not pressing to leave the EU. The report referred to a poll of nearly 28,000 Europeans commissioned by the European Parliament and conducted as recently as September. My Italian is far from perfect but I think the basics are correct.
If I understood this right, only 44% of Italians surveyed said they would vote to stay in the EU, reported as the lowest percentage of all 28 member states – including the UK (where the comparator figure in the poll was 53%).
It also stated that only 43% of Italians – the lowest percentage overall – felt that their country had benefited from being a member, compared to 45% who said it had not. They also felt more disenfranchised than other countries, with 66% saying they felt their country's voice didn't count in the EU.
(Interestingly, the report highlighted that a clear majority of respondents in Italy were convinced that things in the EU were going in the wrong direction: 58%, with just 21% who said it was on the right track, and that most EU countries had answered similarly with a comparable percentage of people in France, Spain and Germany saying exactly the same thing.)
This is coupled to a real sense (backed up by frequent throwaway comments I hear in day-to-day conversation), that things are being run solely for the convenience of the Germans and to a degree the French. There is real outrage at the level of (especially youth) unemployment and no sense of growth leading to a way out.
Talking to various neighbours (who view the antics of the Liga and 5 Star with horror), the view seems to be that Salvini has nothing much to lose as, if the coalition with 5 Star fails, he stands to make considerable gains in any subsequent election. And Brussels is unlikely to be too hard in the end, because if it isn't, it is inevitable that Italian banks would quickly collapse, with the contagion is likely to spread beyond Italy and possibly threaten the Euro itself.
Therefore what J-CJ and co will need to calculate is whether they really need another big dispute simultaneous with their ding dongs with the Hungarians, Poles etc, as well as Brexit. Especially one that could lead to bank collapses all over Europe. Interestingly, Brexit was not mentioned much or as a possible cause/precedent for restraint.
I think many Italians are putting their money on Brussels blinking first and coming up with a fudge.
This is not exactly on topic but, I found this essay an interesting read last night. It discusses the ideological differences between North/West and South/East Europe around liberalism and the problems facing the EU.The usual caveats about anecdote and impressions apply to the following.
The mood seems very supportive of the government and, interestingly, hot on the outcome of a poll for the European Parliament (if I'm understanding the television reports correctly) that suggests that Italy as whole is now more Eurosceptic than the UK, although interestingly not pressing to leave the EU. The report referred to a poll of nearly 28,000 Europeans commissioned by the European Parliament and conducted as recently as September. My Italian is far from perfect but I think the basics are correct.
If I understood this right, only 44% of Italians surveyed said they would vote to stay in the EU, reported as the lowest percentage of all 28 member states – including the UK (where the comparator figure in the poll was 53%).
It also stated that only 43% of Italians – the lowest percentage overall – felt that their country had benefited from being a member, compared to 45% who said it had not. They also felt more disenfranchised than other countries, with 66% saying they felt their country's voice didn't count in the EU.
(Interestingly, the report highlighted that a clear majority of respondents in Italy were convinced that things in the EU were going in the wrong direction: 58%, with just 21% who said it was on the right track, and that most EU countries had answered similarly with a comparable percentage of people in France, Spain and Germany saying exactly the same thing.)
This is coupled to a real sense (backed up by frequent throwaway comments I hear in day-to-day conversation), that things are being run solely for the convenience of the Germans and to a degree the French. There is real outrage at the level of (especially youth) unemployment and no sense of growth leading to a way out.
Talking to various neighbours (who view the antics of the Liga and 5 Star with horror), the view seems to be that Salvini has nothing much to lose as, if the coalition with 5 Star fails, he stands to make considerable gains in any subsequent election. And Brussels is unlikely to be too hard in the end, because if it isn't, it is inevitable that Italian banks would quickly collapse, with the contagion is likely to spread beyond Italy and possibly threaten the Euro itself.
Therefore what J-CJ and co will need to calculate is whether they really need another big dispute simultaneous with their ding dongs with the Hungarians, Poles etc, as well as Brexit. Especially one that could lead to bank collapses all over Europe. Interestingly, Brexit was not mentioned much or as a possible cause/precedent for restraint.
I think many Italians are putting their money on Brussels blinking first and coming up with a fudge.
psi310398 said:
The mood seems very supportive of the government and, interestingly, hot on the outcome of a poll for the European Parliament (if I'm understanding the television reports correctly) that suggests that Italy as whole is now more Eurosceptic than the UK, although interestingly not pressing to leave the EU.
Italy definitely seems to have set itself the task of being inside the tent and pissing in, rather than the UK's decision to be outside pissing in. Who knows, it could work eh? 
stongle said:
Its just an argument, potential outcome. There are many other ways it could break down. Of course we'd get affected by contagion, but the intertwined nature of the Eurozone means that a death spiral is quite a high possibility and oft discussed. If th sh*t hits the fan, the velocity will be beyond that of the ECBs, EC or local governments ability to manage.
When bank domino's begin to fall, its both private and state actors at play. On the 14th Sept 2008, Barclays walked away from saving Lehman (In part due to politics). If Eurozone banks start to topple; where are they going to go for support? The appetite of the conservative Dutch farmer banks is going to be tested - they have to go outside the zone for support.
Agree totally. I think the magnitude and potential volatility of the Italy situation are worrying. It is something I've been aware/wary of for a while, although without the slightest idea of how to view the situation subjectively.When bank domino's begin to fall, its both private and state actors at play. On the 14th Sept 2008, Barclays walked away from saving Lehman (In part due to politics). If Eurozone banks start to topple; where are they going to go for support? The appetite of the conservative Dutch farmer banks is going to be tested - they have to go outside the zone for support.
Penelope Stopit said:
All I want is my local Greek village bins emptying every week rather than at the present 6 to 8 week intervals, it's been one year now since the problem arose, everyday I see more litter about than there are people
I hope Italy follows the UK and gets out of the EU, Spain may then follow and surely the EU will then collapse
I know how you feel. If you are in Corfu, put your weight behind Hercules and Friends - find them on FB.I hope Italy follows the UK and gets out of the EU, Spain may then follow and surely the EU will then collapse
That said, I am pretty certain that the bin situation here in Corfu has little to do with issues of finance from the EU. The money is available, we are told, it just needs those in power to get things moving.
skahigh said:
This is not exactly on topic but, I found this essay an interesting read last night. It discusses the ideological differences between North/West and South/East Europe around liberalism and the problems facing the EU.
Yes, I read that on the plane over. Very interesting.Digga said:
gree totally. I think the magnitude and potential volatility of the Italy situation are worrying. It is something I've been aware/wary of for a while, although without the slightest idea of how to view the situation subjectively.
And I'm wondering what to do about the Euros in my Unicredit account...I'm just hoping the builders will be finished before the bank is!b2hbm said:
Thanks for taking the time to explain in simple terms. We could do with more posts sticking to facts like that one, cheers 
.
Thanks, but if you are so inclined, I’d urge you to do more reading – I’ve had to parse a lot of very complicated rules and regulations into a few paragraphs – and sometimes it’s easier to look at potential outcomes than read 10’s of thousands of pages of jargon. The actual number differences are tiny on the surface – if you compare Deutsch banks leverage ratio and that of Barclays; the difference is <1% - but this means that for every loan Barclays extends it pays 0.1% more on the total notional for loss absorption (in fact it’s worse than that as Barclays have taken more provisions than their EU peers). That’s a significant add-on when you look at loan rates (and if you look at the rate central banks move rates). When you start adding 10bps here, 20bps there; banking product starts to get expensive to the end user. . It’s fair to say that the actions of the EC and EUR CCY (ECB), should be largely independent of each other; but the reality is the politic is intertwined. Analysts @ a German bank are this morning saying – the best hope for IT bond yields and to avert a banking crisis is for the government to collapse. It’s pretty stark language, or outstanding arrogance.
stongle said:
Thanks, but if you are so inclined, I’d urge you to do more reading – I’ve had to parse a lot of very complicated rules and regulations into a few paragraphs – and sometimes it’s easier to look at potential outcomes than read 10’s of thousands of pages of jargon. The actual number differences are tiny on the surface – if you compare Deutsch banks leverage ratio and that of Barclays; the difference is <1% - but this means that for every loan Barclays extends it pays 0.1% more on the total notional for loss absorption (in fact it’s worse than that as Barclays have taken more provisions than their EU peers). That’s a significant add-on when you look at loan rates (and if you look at the rate central banks move rates). When you start adding 10bps here, 20bps there; banking product starts to get expensive to the end user.
It’s fair to say that the actions of the ECB and EUR CCY, should be largely independent of each other; but the reality is the politic is intertwined. Analysts @ a German bank are this morning saying – the best hope for IT bond yields and to avert a banking crisis is for the government to collapse. It’s pretty stark language, or outstanding arrogance.
Or plain ignorance - if the polls are to be believed, following any collapse, Salvini comes out stronger, 5 Star too possibly, and they form an administration with even more of a mandate to stick it to the Man. It’s fair to say that the actions of the ECB and EUR CCY, should be largely independent of each other; but the reality is the politic is intertwined. Analysts @ a German bank are this morning saying – the best hope for IT bond yields and to avert a banking crisis is for the government to collapse. It’s pretty stark language, or outstanding arrogance.
psi310398 said:
Or plain ignorance - if the polls are to be believed, following any collapse, Salvini comes out stronger, 5 Star too possibly, and they form an administration with even more of a mandate to stick it to the Man.
Quite, but the source of the quote was a German bank (loaded with exposure) analyst. They are all a bit:
psi310398 said:
I'm in Italy at the moment. (Admittedly in the North, Salvini territory.)
lots of interesting and informative stuff.
not an unexpected position for the italians or other continental europeans to adopt. i think even the majority in the uk would have agreed at one point the eu was a good idea and had the potential for great things. if only they hadn't allowed it to be run by bureaucrats and failed politicians things might be very different today.lots of interesting and informative stuff.
if it is going to change for the better it is going to take a very strong and unified approach from all bar the germans and french (who currently appear content with the direction of the eu) to let the power brokers know they have had enough. while i voted leave i have no desire to see the eu collapse, the southern european countries that are currently struggling would pay a terrible price and everyone else in europe,including the uk would see big problems as a result. it might well be that a collapse is the only way out of the mess they are in,but i would much prefer change in the long run.
bradders said:
Penelope Stopit said:
All I want is my local Greek village bins emptying every week rather than at the present 6 to 8 week intervals, it's been one year now since the problem arose, everyday I see more litter about than there are people
I hope Italy follows the UK and gets out of the EU, Spain may then follow and surely the EU will then collapse
I know how you feel. If you are in Corfu, put your weight behind Hercules and Friends - find them on FB.I hope Italy follows the UK and gets out of the EU, Spain may then follow and surely the EU will then collapse
That said, I am pretty certain that the bin situation here in Corfu has little to do with issues of finance from the EU. The money is available, we are told, it just needs those in power to get things moving.
It amuses me no end how many posters to topics like this one give their opinions yet know so little about the direct affects of the crumbling EU
Penelope Stopit said:
bradders said:
Penelope Stopit said:
All I want is my local Greek village bins emptying every week rather than at the present 6 to 8 week intervals, it's been one year now since the problem arose, everyday I see more litter about than there are people
I hope Italy follows the UK and gets out of the EU, Spain may then follow and surely the EU will then collapse
I know how you feel. If you are in Corfu, put your weight behind Hercules and Friends - find them on FB.I hope Italy follows the UK and gets out of the EU, Spain may then follow and surely the EU will then collapse
That said, I am pretty certain that the bin situation here in Corfu has little to do with issues of finance from the EU. The money is available, we are told, it just needs those in power to get things moving.
It amuses me no end how many posters to topics like this one give their opinions yet know so little about the direct affects of the crumbling EU
Digga said:
Penelope Stopit said:
bradders said:
Penelope Stopit said:
All I want is my local Greek village bins emptying every week rather than at the present 6 to 8 week intervals, it's been one year now since the problem arose, everyday I see more litter about than there are people
I hope Italy follows the UK and gets out of the EU, Spain may then follow and surely the EU will then collapse
I know how you feel. If you are in Corfu, put your weight behind Hercules and Friends - find them on FB.I hope Italy follows the UK and gets out of the EU, Spain may then follow and surely the EU will then collapse
That said, I am pretty certain that the bin situation here in Corfu has little to do with issues of finance from the EU. The money is available, we are told, it just needs those in power to get things moving.
It amuses me no end how many posters to topics like this one give their opinions yet know so little about the direct affects of the crumbling EU
Corfu, Greek mainland and Crete....All of Greece then????
Greece isn't big enough for all this garbage
All I want for Christmas is..........................
Penelope Stopit said:
This is interesting, I thought it was only my local area on the Greek mainland that was suffering. I heard a whisper that the loacal council won't spend the money on diesel for the bin wagons, what I don't know is whether they have the money to spend or not
It amuses me no end how many posters to topics like this one give their opinions yet know so little about the direct affects of the crumbling EU
Because, obviously, the Greek economy was thriving before the Eurozone (not EU...) strictures were imposed?It amuses me no end how many posters to topics like this one give their opinions yet know so little about the direct affects of the crumbling EU
There was no widespread lead-swinging, and no widespread tax-dodging, and no widespread cushy early retirement... Oh, no, heavens no. All the sums added up, and all the public services were faultless, and nobody ever left buildings half-built so as not to pay property taxes...
TooMany2cvs said:
Penelope Stopit said:
This is interesting, I thought it was only my local area on the Greek mainland that was suffering. I heard a whisper that the loacal council won't spend the money on diesel for the bin wagons, what I don't know is whether they have the money to spend or not
It amuses me no end how many posters to topics like this one give their opinions yet know so little about the direct affects of the crumbling EU
Because, obviously, the Greek economy was thriving before the Eurozone (not EU...) strictures were imposed?It amuses me no end how many posters to topics like this one give their opinions yet know so little about the direct affects of the crumbling EU
There was no widespread lead-swinging, and no widespread tax-dodging, and no widespread cushy early retirement... Oh, no, heavens no. All the sums added up, and all the public services were faultless, and nobody ever left buildings half-built so as not to pay property taxes...
It kept them poorer, but possibly happier. Now they have more Audis but no rubbish collection and high youth unemployment.
Whether that is an improvement, I somewhat doubt.
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