How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)
Discussion
SpeckledJim said:
Sway said:
Crackie said:
toppstuff said:
Across the EU the general attitude to brexit is “ oh my god the UK leaving is a disaster !” any way let’s talk about Italy etc etc”.
You're probably correct, it will be Italy next......Regarding your etc etc, who do you think will leave after Italy. Greece or Czech Republic?
The fallout from them walking away from half a trillion euros of non-repayable debt will tear the rest apart, as they'll no longer be able to ignore the blue whale in the room that is the fiscal transfers with zero control or mechanism for repayment that is Target2.
Leaving now is stupid, the euro debt crisis is just getting good. We've got front-row seats, and you want us to go and sit in the car park!?
Those bonds actually have to be repaid, with interest - and it's not going to happen.
Then we get to the half trillion and growing that Italy in theory (but not practice) owe other EU central banks under T2.
Ponzi scheme doesn't quite cut it as a descriptor...
cookie118 said:
SpeckledJim said:
No, both apply. But for UK business any additional friction between the UK and EU is going to be partly or completely ameliorated by new opportunities outside the EU.
For EU businesses that trade with the UK, it's all bad news. Extra friction with their UK sales, and zero benefit with the rest of the world.
Of all the potential trade losers of Brexit, I think it's EU businesses who do a lot of business with the UK who are likely to be worst off. And it's Brussels who are held to account by the people who own and run and work in those businesses, not the UK govt.
If I was French or German, selling to or buying from the UK, and could see Brussels playing politics instead of providing me with the protection I pay them for then I'd be disappointed, to say the least.
I've seen virtually no UK businesses talking about concrete Brexit positives yet (not justsome airy-fairy "potentials", and a huge amount talking about concrete negatives. Can you prove that more businesses have said lost trade with the EU will be amerliorated by new opportunities?For EU businesses that trade with the UK, it's all bad news. Extra friction with their UK sales, and zero benefit with the rest of the world.
Of all the potential trade losers of Brexit, I think it's EU businesses who do a lot of business with the UK who are likely to be worst off. And it's Brussels who are held to account by the people who own and run and work in those businesses, not the UK govt.
If I was French or German, selling to or buying from the UK, and could see Brussels playing politics instead of providing me with the protection I pay them for then I'd be disappointed, to say the least.
And the EU have a very easy out from this-The UK chose to leave!
You seem to be surprised that the EU and its citizens would choose business over politics when the UK people and government have done so time and time again with Brexit.
If you think that on the balance of probabilities that our gaining the freedom to seek new deals is going to result in zero new deals, then I'd respectfully suggest that you're not coming to the question from a balanced view-point.
Anecdotally, I can confidently say that if the UK signs an FTA with a country, then I'll certainly sell more UK stuff, in my own tiny way, to people in that country. Feel free to disregard that, it's just a single anecdote, and just a 'potential'. (but it's true...)
Vaud said:
loafer123 said:
s2art said:
When the s
t hits the fan in the Eurozone, and it will, we want to be standing as clear as we can from it.
A well known fund manager friend of mine said exactly the same to me last week. I was surprised, as I had expected him to be firmly Remain.t hits the fan in the Eurozone, and it will, we want to be standing as clear as we can from it.At the same meeting, it was also clear that international investors didn’t care about Brexit in the slightest.
To balance, I work for a European listed company and we have paused (not cancelled) planned UK investments until H2 next year. We also passed on some mid-size acquisitions (the £10-50M range) due to Brexit uncertainty.
And likewise, postponing inward investment in the UK makes sense too at the moment, there's a hell of a self-inflicted ruckus going on. The size and shape of that ruckus was a known unknown that we actively decided was worth the risk.
SpeckledJim said:
All the potentials ARE 'airy-fairy' at the moment. Because we're still in. We're not allowed to do the potentials until we're out.
If you think that on the balance of probabilities that our gaining the freedom to seek new deals is going to result in zero new deals, then I'd respectfully suggest that you're not coming to the question from a balanced view-point.
Anecdotally, I can confidently say that if the UK signs an FTA with a country, then I'll certainly sell more UK stuff, in my own tiny way, to people in that country. Feel free to disregard that, it's just a single anecdote, and just a 'potential'. (but it's true...)
So we're potentially putting more than 40% of our international trade at risk for airy fairy potentials?If you think that on the balance of probabilities that our gaining the freedom to seek new deals is going to result in zero new deals, then I'd respectfully suggest that you're not coming to the question from a balanced view-point.
Anecdotally, I can confidently say that if the UK signs an FTA with a country, then I'll certainly sell more UK stuff, in my own tiny way, to people in that country. Feel free to disregard that, it's just a single anecdote, and just a 'potential'. (but it's true...)
I think we'll sign some free trade deals, I don't think they'll come close to repairing the damage we'll do with a no deal brexit.
Sway said:
Crackie said:
toppstuff said:
Across the EU the general attitude to brexit is “ oh my god the UK leaving is a disaster !” any way let’s talk about Italy etc etc”.
You're probably correct, it will be Italy next......Regarding your etc etc, who do you think will leave after Italy. Greece or Czech Republic?
The fallout from them walking away from half a trillion euros of non-repayable debt will tear the rest apart, as they'll no longer be able to ignore the blue whale in the room that is the fiscal transfers with zero control or mechanism for repayment that is Target2.
toppstuff said:
don'tbesilly said:
Oh dear, another Coolbanana.
With an Uncle like toppstuff it's little wonder the poor 16 yr old nephew is being indoctrinated at such a young age.
I'm sure the poor mite will come through though, he just needs a qualification in Aviation law, that will sort him out.
Remorse
It's like being preached to by a Rabid Remainer Rector, who keeps a herd of Wildebeest in the vicarage garden
So how specifically will your life be better after brexit ? With an Uncle like toppstuff it's little wonder the poor 16 yr old nephew is being indoctrinated at such a young age.
I'm sure the poor mite will come through though, he just needs a qualification in Aviation law, that will sort him out.
Remorse
It's like being preached to by a Rabid Remainer Rector, who keeps a herd of Wildebeest in the vicarage garden
What does brexit allow you to do that you could not do before ?
cookie118 said:
SpeckledJim said:
All the potentials ARE 'airy-fairy' at the moment. Because we're still in. We're not allowed to do the potentials until we're out.
If you think that on the balance of probabilities that our gaining the freedom to seek new deals is going to result in zero new deals, then I'd respectfully suggest that you're not coming to the question from a balanced view-point.
Anecdotally, I can confidently say that if the UK signs an FTA with a country, then I'll certainly sell more UK stuff, in my own tiny way, to people in that country. Feel free to disregard that, it's just a single anecdote, and just a 'potential'. (but it's true...)
So we're potentially putting more than 40% of our international trade at risk for airy fairy potentials?If you think that on the balance of probabilities that our gaining the freedom to seek new deals is going to result in zero new deals, then I'd respectfully suggest that you're not coming to the question from a balanced view-point.
Anecdotally, I can confidently say that if the UK signs an FTA with a country, then I'll certainly sell more UK stuff, in my own tiny way, to people in that country. Feel free to disregard that, it's just a single anecdote, and just a 'potential'. (but it's true...)
I think we'll sign some free trade deals, I don't think they'll come close to repairing the damage we'll do with a no deal brexit.
It might take a quick big step from 40% to 35% or 30%. It's falling by 1% a year anyway, so our paying BIG cash for a trade deficit with a market that's getting ever less significant, yet hemmed us in, away from the growing wider world, was always going to be obviously madness sooner or later anyway.
PurpleMoonlight said:
paulrockliffe said:
Cabinet meeting over-running massively. A bad sign for May surely?
Unless they are all now getting drunk.
Sway said:
SpeckledJim said:
Sway said:
Crackie said:
toppstuff said:
Across the EU the general attitude to brexit is “ oh my god the UK leaving is a disaster !” any way let’s talk about Italy etc etc”.
You're probably correct, it will be Italy next......Regarding your etc etc, who do you think will leave after Italy. Greece or Czech Republic?
The fallout from them walking away from half a trillion euros of non-repayable debt will tear the rest apart, as they'll no longer be able to ignore the blue whale in the room that is the fiscal transfers with zero control or mechanism for repayment that is Target2.
Leaving now is stupid, the euro debt crisis is just getting good. We've got front-row seats, and you want us to go and sit in the car park!?
Those bonds actually have to be repaid, with interest - and it's not going to happen.
Then we get to the half trillion and growing that Italy in theory (but not practice) owe other EU central banks under T2.
Ponzi scheme doesn't quite cut it as a descriptor...
For all the to- and fro- of the debate, this is just a conversational neutron bomb since nobody on either side has the first idea what to do about it, besides get as far away from it as possible (leaver) or roll it over to next year and shut it firmly back in the drawer (remainer).
How many roll-overs are possible before the EU has to share the jackpot between all the players?
. It would be a shame if she had to pop off to accept the return of TM's seals of office
SpeckledJim said:
That's all perfectly reasonable, IMO. De-coupling ASAP from the EU makes sense for the medium term when all the IOU's bounce and it all collapses.
And likewise, postponing inward investment in the UK makes sense too at the moment, there's a hell of a self-inflicted ruckus going on. The size and shape of that ruckus was a known unknown that we actively decided was worth the risk.
There is also a view that if we have a minor global recession next year that we would be able to acquire at a lower price and there will be some big consolidators in our particular market. There are some early signs of distress in some players - may be just noise, or may be significant.And likewise, postponing inward investment in the UK makes sense too at the moment, there's a hell of a self-inflicted ruckus going on. The size and shape of that ruckus was a known unknown that we actively decided was worth the risk.
citizensm1th said:
B'stard Child said:
toppstuff said:
We overestimate our importance to the EU.
They care more about the union than any single nation.
Across the EU the general attitude to brexit is not “ oh my god the UK leaving is a disaster !” In general it is a feeling of “ oh well - that makes no sense and they must be mad, but any way let’s talk about Russia, Italy etc etc”.
We have an excess of misplaced arrogance to think we matter that much.
The UK is standing by the exit shouting out really loud “ We are leaving !! Now !! “ and the other kids at the party will look over their shoulder, say “whatever” and go back to more pressing issues.
They care more about the union than any single nation.
Across the EU the general attitude to brexit is not “ oh my god the UK leaving is a disaster !” In general it is a feeling of “ oh well - that makes no sense and they must be mad, but any way let’s talk about Russia, Italy etc etc”.
We have an excess of misplaced arrogance to think we matter that much.
The UK is standing by the exit shouting out really loud “ We are leaving !! Now !! “ and the other kids at the party will look over their shoulder, say “whatever” and go back to more pressing issues.
You been listening to your teenager again?
If they have to throw us under the bus to keep it on track they will with out a moments regret.
Exactly the point I raised a few hours ago, unless the political aspirations can be modified to suit an ever changing World of business and politics, not to mention citizens aspirations and ideals, the EU will cease to be. It’s like any club, keep the same committee with the same old ideas and very soon it’s members become disaffected.
SpeckledJim said:
Sway said:
SpeckledJim said:
Sway said:
Crackie said:
toppstuff said:
Across the EU the general attitude to brexit is “ oh my god the UK leaving is a disaster !” any way let’s talk about Italy etc etc”.
You're probably correct, it will be Italy next......Regarding your etc etc, who do you think will leave after Italy. Greece or Czech Republic?
The fallout from them walking away from half a trillion euros of non-repayable debt will tear the rest apart, as they'll no longer be able to ignore the blue whale in the room that is the fiscal transfers with zero control or mechanism for repayment that is Target2.
Leaving now is stupid, the euro debt crisis is just getting good. We've got front-row seats, and you want us to go and sit in the car park!?
Those bonds actually have to be repaid, with interest - and it's not going to happen.
Then we get to the half trillion and growing that Italy in theory (but not practice) owe other EU central banks under T2.
Ponzi scheme doesn't quite cut it as a descriptor...
For all the to- and fro- of the debate, this is just a conversational neutron bomb since nobody on either side has the first idea what to do about it, besides get as far away from it as possible (leaver) or roll it over to next year and shut it firmly back in the drawer (remainer).
How many roll-overs are possible before the EU has to share the jackpot between all the players?
TheFlyingBanana said:
citizensm1th said:
B'stard Child said:
toppstuff said:
We overestimate our importance to the EU.
They care more about the union than any single nation.
Across the EU the general attitude to brexit is not “ oh my god the UK leaving is a disaster !” In general it is a feeling of “ oh well - that makes no sense and they must be mad, but any way let’s talk about Russia, Italy etc etc”.
We have an excess of misplaced arrogance to think we matter that much.
The UK is standing by the exit shouting out really loud “ We are leaving !! Now !! “ and the other kids at the party will look over their shoulder, say “whatever” and go back to more pressing issues.
They care more about the union than any single nation.
Across the EU the general attitude to brexit is not “ oh my god the UK leaving is a disaster !” In general it is a feeling of “ oh well - that makes no sense and they must be mad, but any way let’s talk about Russia, Italy etc etc”.
We have an excess of misplaced arrogance to think we matter that much.
The UK is standing by the exit shouting out really loud “ We are leaving !! Now !! “ and the other kids at the party will look over their shoulder, say “whatever” and go back to more pressing issues.
You been listening to your teenager again?
If they have to throw us under the bus to keep it on track they will with out a moments regret.
The EU aren't.
I don't know why this is so hard to understand. We took the decision to leave, a particularly advantageous membership where many exceptions had been made specifically for us, and some seem to think this is the EU's fault we are in this mess.
It isn't. The EU has been completely consistent all the way through this debacle. Our politicians have behaved like toddlers. Most of the EU countries are simply bemused by us.
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