How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)

[toppstuff]

There’s quite a Brexiteers circle jerk going on in here.

Anyone got the digestive biscuits out yet?

[crankedup]

toppstuff said:

There’s quite a Brexiteers circle jerk going on in here.

Anyone got the digestive biscuits out yet?

Cake surely, victoria sponge perhaps, my favourite.

[_Sorted_]

desolate said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

Unless they are all now getting drunk.

Someone's trying to find a revolver.
They'll definitely have the malt easy to hand.

...They could be just trying to add tension, when in actual fact it is like the Mr Bridger dentist meeting from the Italian Job and they have feet up, drinking whiskey and smoking cigars until the media is at the correct level of frenzy for May to come out.

[Sway]

toppstuff said:

There’s quite a Brexiteers circle jerk going on in here.

Anyone got the digestive biscuits out yet?

As you've just displayed, it's quite easy to ignore rebuttals to your assertion that your colleagues 'have nothing to fear from the UK leaving' as a circle jerk...

It would be far more persuasive if you responded to the question asked though.

[loafer123]

Vaud said:

SpeckledJim said:

That's all perfectly reasonable, IMO. De-coupling ASAP from the EU makes sense for the medium term when all the IOU's bounce and it all collapses.

And likewise, postponing inward investment in the UK makes sense too at the moment, there's a hell of a self-inflicted ruckus going on. The size and shape of that ruckus was a known unknown that we actively decided was worth the risk.

There is also a view that if we have a minor global recession next year that we would be able to acquire at a lower price and there will be some big consolidators in our particular market. There are some early signs of distress in some players - may be just noise, or may be significant.

I agree with all of the above.

An argument made around the conference table was that Brexit had blown the froth off our markets making them comparatively good value compared to others which were more vulnerable to a downturn.

[Wobbegong]

toppstuff said:

We overestimate our importance to the EU.

They care more about the union than any single nation.

Across the EU the general attitude to brexit is not “ oh my god the UK leaving is a disaster !” In general it is a feeling of “ oh well - that makes no sense and they must be mad, but any way let’s talk about Russia, Italy etc etc”.

We have an excess of misplaced arrogance to think we matter that much.

The UK is standing by the exit shouting out really loud “ We are leaving !! Now !! “ and the other kids at the party will look over their shoulder, say “whatever” and go back to more pressing issues.

I have a few friends in France who are shocked that the U.K. is leaving, however the majority want to leave the EU too.

[psi310398]

Iain Dale's latest blog. He is a useful bellwether of mainstream Tory thinking:

https://www.iaindale.com/articles/if-its-a-choice-...

Not a happy read for the Government

[don'tbesilly]

psi310398 said:

desolate said:

Someone's trying to find a revolver.
They'll definitely have the malt easy to hand.

It would be a bit of a pisser for Prince Charles. His mother is hosting a birthday party for him. It would be a shame if she had to pop off to accept the return of TM's seals of office

Madge is OK for tonight, she won't be seeing May, nor will anyone else, the speech isn't now going to happen apparently.

[SeeFive]

don'tbesilly said:

Madge is OK for tonight, she won't be seeing May, nor will anyone else, the speech isn't now going to happen apparently.

Not the case. Speech will happen after cabinet. No press conference, Hurd mis-spoke apparently...

[The Dangerous Elk]

psi310398 said:

It would be a bit of a pisser for Prince Charles. His mother is hosting a birthday party for him. It would be a shame if she had to pop off to accept the return of TM's seals of office

Considering the history of PM's she has met, I do not think Mrs May would be anything other than a minor interruption.

[psi310398]

SeeFive said:

Not the case. Speech will happen after cabinet. No press conference, Hurd mis-spoke apparently...

Correct - she will speak on the steps of Downing Street later but go back to the Commons, apparently.

[Vaud]

Wobbegong said:

I have a few friends in France who are shocked that the U.K. is leaving, however the majority want to leave the EU too.

Contagion is the fear of the EU. It isn't about the UK per se. It's the concept of the death of Europe-max.

[Sway]

Vaud said:

Wobbegong said:

I have a few friends in France who are shocked that the U.K. is leaving, however the majority want to leave the EU too.

Contagion is the fear of the EU. It isn't about the UK per se. It's the concept of the death of Europe-max.

In which case the very last thing they should have done is to repeatedly increase the levels of systemic risk, and create the conditions whereby fiscal contagion and Great Depression rivaling issues are guaranteed...

[bitchstewie]

psi310398 said:

Iain Dale's latest blog. He is a useful bellwether of mainstream Tory thinking:

https://www.iaindale.com/articles/if-its-a-choice-...

Not a happy read for the Government

I tend to agree with Iain Dale on most things when I hear him on LBC.

It's a reasonable article - I'd like to think that whilst I voted to remain I'm not in the "at any cost" camp.

I'll wait until the details come out but everything I read about what's on the table suggests it's worse in every way possible than our current position.

[Mojooo]

Bottom line is someone is going to have to call it - no deal or 2nd referndum.

If someone gets into power that calls for a 2nd referndum there is no doubt MPs will vote it through

[psi310398]

Mojooo said:

Bottom line is someone is going to have to call it - no deal or 2nd referndum.

If someone gets into power that calls for a 2nd referndum there is no doubt MPs will vote it through

Won't we just end up substituting this ding dong for another one about whether remain is on the paper?

[Jordan210]

according to Laura Kuenssberg

Senior tory tells me Brexiteer anger so high that seems likely there will be a call for no confidence vote tomorrow - letters going in -


Noticed this is posted in May thread.

[frisbee]

Jordan210 said:

according to Laura Kuenssberg

Senior tory tells me Brexiteer anger so high that seems likely there will be a call for no confidence vote tomorrow - letters going in -


Noticed this is posted in May thread.

I can't see it happening, they don't have a single candidate they can all get behind so they'll just end up backstabbing each other. And they are too scared of wasting their one chance.

[anonymous-user]

frisbee said:

I can't see it happening, they don't have a single candidate they can all get behind so they'll just end up backstabbing each other. And they are too scared of wasting their one chance.

I honestly think a full on "up yours delors" or "reverse brexit" would be more popular than her right now.

At least it would be a fair fight.

[davepoth]

frisbee said:

Jordan210 said:

according to Laura Kuenssberg

Senior tory tells me Brexiteer anger so high that seems likely there will be a call for no confidence vote tomorrow - letters going in -


Noticed this is posted in May thread.

I can't see it happening, they don't have a single candidate they can all get behind so they'll just end up backstabbing each other. And they are too scared of wasting their one chance.

But it's not a waste. While the no confidence vote is supposed to take place "quickly" I believe there's no fixed timescale - so if the 1922 happens to think that no deal is better than this deal they may well choose to spin the process out. We're that close to the edge now that time taken over the vote might mean there's no time for a deal and no time for a referendum any more.

So even if she stays it's possible that her hand would be forced.